MLB Series Betting- Tampa Bay at Oakland
By Doug Upstone
Going to go against the grain, while the Yankees and Red Sox will hog a lot of the headlines this weekend in Major League Baseball, the fact is neither is in first place. The real action this Mothers Day weekend is in the Bay Area where two American League teams are playing and each starts their three game series atop their division.
The last team to start the season 21-7 like Tampa Bay was the 2005 Chicago White Sox, who went on to win the World Series. The last AL team to have an ERA under three (the Rays are at 2.84) this far into a new campaign was the White Sox five years ago and they won the World Series.
You get the picture; Tampa Bay is off to sensational start, thanks to great pitching and an everyday lineup that is averaging 6.0 runs per contest, the best in the bigs.
Right now, were going to ride this as long as we can, manager Joe Maddon said. Obviously, the starting pitching has been fabulous. I believe we can play to this standard for a long time.
The Rays arrive in Oakland with a four game winning streak after sweeping Seattle and are just the fourth team in the last 49 years to start 12-1 or better on the road. Tampa Bay isnt just beating other clubs in their own park, they are pulverizing them, winning by 4.7 RPG. They will start David Price (3-1, 2.34 ERA) in the opener, the top pick in the 2007 draft. The left-hander is living up to his considerable potential has given up three runs or fewer in each of his five starts.
Oakland has something not many would have expected in the first full weekend of May, a winning record. The As won their series over Texas this week and is tied for first in the AL West.
Oakland will trot out their talented lefty Gio Gonzalez (3-1, 3.45), who has cut down on his walks which has kept him out of bad innings. At 24, for the first time in his career, he is mixing his low-90s fastball with big breaking curve, showcasing his swing-and-miss stuff on a regular basis. Gonzalez has more strikeouts (27) than hits allowed (23) and has not conceded a home run in his last four starts.
The red-hot Rays are a -155 money line favorite at Betonline.com Friday night with total Un7.5 and are 79-23 as a favorite of -150 or more and are 12-2 OVER against teams with a winning record. The teams last met in Florida on Apr. 28, with the As falling 10-3. Oakland is just 3-7 as home underdog and is 15-4 UNDER revenging a road loss of six runs or more over the last three seasons.
Game 1 Edge: Oakland
The Athletics are well aware how good Tampa Bay is having dropped a pair to them in 2010. They respect what they have accomplished but are not intimidated by the former Devil Rays. They've got a good lineup -- a lot of runners and also some good power," said Oakland catcher Landon Powell. "But I like our team, too. You go out there any day [and] any team can win, so we're going to try and do our best and see what happens."
The As might have one edge in the final two games of the series being played under natural sunlight; they are 8-3 in the day time. Skipper Bob Geren gives the ball to Ben Sheets (1-3, 7.12) whose returning from injury. After a number of adequate starts, Sheets has been ripped for 19 hits and 17 runs in last two outings, serving up batting practice pitches that opposing hitters have taken yard five times. Oakland has won just once in six starts by Sheets but is 8-3 on Saturdays.
The second best pitching prospect in the Rays organization behind Price is the Game 2 start Wade Davis (3-1, 2.79). The right-hander has 93-94 MPH fastball, with what scouts call a plus hard curve. Even with his obvious skills, Davis best attribute is his unflappable nature and supreme composure. Tampa has won Davis� prior four starts and is sparkling 7-0 vs. RH hurlers.
Game 2 Edge: Tampa Bay
If As can earn a split coming series finale, they have history on their side. Tampa Bay has won five on last nine meetings in Oakland, but has a long dismal history of failure in Oak-Town with 12-34 record coming into the series.
James Shields (4-0, 3.15) is the elder statesmen of the staff at 28 and will try to keep his club on the winning track. The right-hander has reputation working both sides of the plate with his hard stuff and a spinner curveball. Shields has arguably the best change-up in the AL and will throw it on any count. He is 4-1 with a 3.59 ERA in nine career starts against Oakland.
The white-clad Athletics counter with Dallas Braden (3-2, 4.14) who has five quality starts in six games, with the one bad coming against the Rays and Shields (6 runs and 8 hits in 4 innings). Braden has short over the top delivery and likes to cut his fastball to keep it away from RH batters. When he uses his curve, prefers big sweeper to lefties and downward motion to hitters on the other side of the box. Braden has a 2-1 record with a 2.67 ERA in four home starts this season and has brilliant strikeout-to-walk ratio of 19-3 at the Oakland Coliseum. Look for manager Maddon to load up with RH swingers since Braden is permitting .229 BA to lefties and .274 to righties.
Game 3 Edge: Tampa Bay
It might be intriguing to bet the As in this series, but it wouldnt make sense. Tampa Bay is the best team in baseball because they score runs and dont allow many. They have allowed more than eight base hits twice in their last 11 contests.
Oakland only bats .252 as team and they are ninth in runs scored at 4.3 in the junior circuit. If they can grab a lead in the late innings the As would have a chance, since they are the only team in baseball without a blown save (6-0), however the Rays are patient as the dish drawing over four walks a game.
Now does not appear to be the time to bet against Tampa Bay.
Series odds: Tampa Bay -190, Oakland +150
Doug's Pick: Tampa Bay