Thursday's Best MLB Mound Matchup
Andy Pettitte, New York Yankees vs. Carl Pavano, Minnesota Twins
Andy Pettitte (11-3, 3.28 ERA)
They don’t call Andy Pettitte "Mr. October," but maybe they should.
Pettitte is the winningest pitcher baseball postseason history, with 18 victories. His career playoff statistics include an 18-9 record, a 3.90 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and 164 strikeouts in 249 innings. During New York’s run to last year’s World Series title, Pettitte compiled a perfect 4-0 mark and a 3.52 ERA in five starts.
At 38 years old, Pettitte is going full steam ahead in 2010. En route to his 11-3 record and impressive 3.28 ERA, he faced the Twins twice, going 2-0 with a miniscule 1.26 ERA.
A significant question mark, however, is that Pettitte dealt with groin and back problems throughout the second half of the year. He is just the seventh MLB pitcher since 1952 to start a postseason game after throwing less than 20 innings as a starter after the All-Star break.
Pettitte posted an 11-10 over/under mark during the regular season, including 6-2 in his last eight starts.
Carl Pavano (17-11, 3.75 ERA)
When the Yankees look across the diamond and see Carl Pavano hurling against them, they will probably be wondering what they were missing when he was part of the team between 2005 and 2008. Crushed by injuries, Pavano made just 26 starts in for years and missed the entire 2006 season. Let’s just say that in his "best" year with New York in 2005, he went 4-6 with a 4.77 ERA!
Armed with a clean bill of health, Pavano is not making the Twins regret their acquisition of him in 2009. This season, the 34-year-old has struck out 117 batters against only 37 walks in 221 innings to go along with his 17-11 record and 3.75 ERA.
"I can’t tell you how good it feels to be counted on again," Pavano told the USA Today. That’s something the Yankees could never do. In fact, Pavano was dubbed "American Idle" during his tenure in the Big Apple.
Pavano finished the regular season with a 14-17 over/under clip, including 4-1 in his last five starts.
Tips and Trends
Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants
BRAVES: Atlanta is back in the postseason after missing the previous 3 seasons. It's only fitting that in the final season coached by Bobby Cox that this team make the playoffs. Atlanta enters the post-season as the National League Wild Card winner. The Braves were 91-71 SU this season, including a road record of 35-46 SU. Atlanta is used to playing close game, as they led the majors with 25 wins in their final at bat. Atlanta had 45 come from behind wins this season, nearly half of their season wins. The Braves were +0.32 and +10.05 units both SU and ATS overall this season. Veteran right-hander Derek Lowe will make the road start tonight, as he's 16-12 SU with an ERA of 4.00 and a WHIP of 1.37 this year. The Braves are 3-7 in their last 10 road games against a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600%. The Braves are 2-5 in their last 7 Divisional Playoff road games. Atlanta is 1-4 in their last 5 road games against a right-handed starter. The Braves are 0-8 in their last 8 playoff games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Atlanta is 6-0 in Lowe's last 6 starts. The Braves are 2-5 in Lowe's last 7 starts against a team with a winning record.
Braves are 1-4 last 5 Divisional Playoff games.
Over is 12-2 last 14 Divisional Playoff road games.
Key Injuries - 2B Martin Prado (hip) is out.
Projected Score: 2
GIANTS: (-150, O/U 6.5) San Francisco is back in the post-season for the first time since 2003. The Giants enter the playoffs as the National League West division champions, a feat they didn't accomplish until the very last day of the regular season. The Giants finished the year at 92-70 SU, including 49-32 SU at home. Overall, San Francisco was +13.99 and -2.15 units both SU and ATS this year. There is no doubt that the Giants pitching staff leads this team. This San Francisco pitching staff had 1,331 strikeouts this season, easily the best mark in baseball. Ace Tim Lincecum will make the home start tonight, as he's 16-10 with an ERA of 3.43 and a WHIP of 1.27. The Giants are 8-2 in their last 10 home games against a right-handed starter. San Francisco is 5-2 in their last 7 games as a home favorite. The Giants are 5-1 in Lincecum's last 6 starts overall. San Francisco is 4-1 in Lincecum's last 5 starts with 7 or more days of rest. The Giants are 35-16 in Lincecum's last 51 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Giants are 1-4 last 5 games against the National League East.
Under is 9-0 last 9 home games against a right-handed starter.
Key Injuries - LF Mark DeRosa (wrist) is out.
Projected Score: 3 (UNDER-Total of the Day)
Thursday's Games
Shields is 0-4, 7.91 in his last six starts; he was 1-1, 5.14 in two starts against Texas. This is huge game for Rays; they'll need strong effort out of pitcher who looks to be out of gas after tossing ton of innings over last three seasons. If Rays insist on using Baldelli as DH, they're in an indefensible position- guy was 5-24 this year. Wilson was 1-3, 5.85 in his last six starts; he beat Rays 9-6 June 4, giving up five runs in 5 IP.
Minnesota has now lost 10 straight playoff games, and is 2-10 against Bronx in playoffs since 2003; they didn't win last night when they had 3-0 lead in 6th inning, so this is uphill for them now. Pavano was 9-8 in 26 starts over four expensive years in Bronx; he is 2-5, 5.43 in his last eight starts. Pettitte was hurt a lot own stretch, is 0-1, 7.64 in his last four starts, but was 2-0, 1.26 in two starts vs Twins in May. Four of last five Pavano starts, six of last eight Pettitte starts went over total.
Braves were 4-3 vs Giants this year; home team was 5-2 in those games. Lowe was 5-0, 1.17 in his last five starts, after having only one win in his previous seven starts-- he was 2-0, 2.38 against the Giants this year. Lincecum is 5-1, 1.94 in his last six starts; he was 1-1, 3.38 vs Atlanta. Under is 8-4 in Lowe's last 12 starts, 6-2 in Lincecum's last eight starts. Atlanta won 25 games in its last at-bat, most in majors.