MLB Total Trends
By Chris David
The first three weeks of the pro baseball regular season are in the books and some handicappers might feel the sample size might be too small at this point, but there are some telling stats. And with those stats, gamblers can start to notice total trends. Sometimes numbers balance out, but sometimes the trends continue. Let’s take a quick look at some ‘over/under’ tendencies that have developed so far in April.
Over Easy
Did you know Kansas City leads the majors with a team batting average of .309 and 133 hits through Monday? The Royals’ offense shouldn’t come as a surprise, since the team made some quality offseason moves. The addition of Scott Podsednik (21 hits) has given the team needed stability at the top of the lineup, plus Jason Kendall (16 hits) has turned some heads as well in Kansas City. The club only has a 5-8 overall record, due to a team ERA of 5.47. The hot offense and the erratic pitching have produced a 10-3 ‘over’ record.
The Dodgers are right behind the Royals with 131 hits and they lead the National League with a .303 team average. When you couple those numbers with a team ERA of 5.30, it leads to easy ‘over’ winners and that’s been the case this season (10-2).
Even though the Marlins (9-4) and Phillies (8-4) saw two of their three battles in Philadelphia go ‘under’ over the weekend, the two teams have been solid ‘over’ bets early as well.
Washington (6.34 ERA) and Pittsburgh (6.34 ERA) have proven that you don’t need to have a stacked lineup to cash ‘over’ tickets, you just need bad pitching. The Nationals (8-4) and Pirates (7-3) are tied for the worst ERA in the majors and both rotations have seen a lot of high-scoring affairs.
Lacking a Punch
Houston started the season with eight straight losses, but its gone 3-1 over the last four and the recent success is directly attributed to the pitching staff. Unfortunately for the Astros’ pitchers, they’ll need to stay sharp since their offense is ranked dead-last in average (.215) and runs (28). The result for total players has been an 8-2 ‘under’ mark. Houston is expected to get Lance Berkman (knee) back in the lineup this week, which can only help an attack that has only hit a league-low three home runs so far.
The Indians have quietly ripped off four wins in a row, three coming against the White Sox over the weekend. The offense has put up 19 runs over this span, which is a bit of a surprise considering the attack put up 26 total runs in the first nine games. Cleveland is hitting .219 as a team, which is ranked second to last. The Indians also own a solid ERA of 3.50, which is the ninth best in the majors. Anytime you combine an inconsistent offense with decent arms, you’re going to see ‘under’ tickets come rolling in and that’s the case with the Indians (9-2) this year.
St. Louis might own the best player in Albert Pujols (5 HRs, 15 RBI), yet the offense is only hitting .212 to go with 28 runs on the season. The loss of Rick Ankeil (3 HRs, 9 RBI) to the rival Royals in the offseason has hurt, plus Matt Holiday (6) and Ryan Ludwik (5) have combined for just 11 RBI. Despite the offensive woes, St. Louis leads the NL Central with an 8-4 record behind a 2.45 ERA, which leads the majors. Gamblers backing the ‘under’ for St. Louis have profited to an 8-4 mark, including 5-1 at home.
Another offense that has some big names is Texas, but unfortunately the stars haven’t shown up this season yet. The attack has mustered up 46 runs and All Stars Josh Hamilton (.220) and Michael Young (.255) haven’t found their groove yet. The Rangers’ pitching staff (3.41 ERA) has also kept the ball from flying out of the park this season. The ‘under’ has gone 9-3, which includes a 5-1 mark on the road. Texas has three more road tilts this week at Boston, who’s also been struggling. Value could be with the ‘under’ in these spots, especially based on the past perception.
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