MLB: Totals Talk
By Josh Jacobs
Boston (27-20, +203)
Backers can’t be satisfied in the past few days. The Red Sox have dropped four of the last six games, generating a cellar dwelling 2.5 runs per game during the defeats. David Ortiz (.198 BA/1 HR/18 RBIs) has been missing in action since the season got underway and the pitching staff has failed to improve on its dismal 4.54 ERA. In other words its been easy holding onto first place in the AL East and going 7-8 in the last 15.
But that doesn’t mean we can’t find another route to the bank. Switching strategies from money or run lines to totals wagering has proven prosperous. In the last 16 games, Boston has cashed in on the ‘under’ 11 times. And if you think you missed the bus, well there could be more success down the road.
The Red Sox will begin a three-game series against the floundering Blue Jays. Through all of its hardships, Toronto has scratched together 13 ‘under’ plays in the last 20 games. The offense that was generating a league leading 142 runs in April has now dropped below critical levels. Although a batting average of .274 has been mildly effective, 115 runs produced this month is a serious drop in production.
Getting back to Boston, its becoming evident that we’re left wondering which club will make the trip out the diamond on any given day. Will it be the team that’s bringing in 6.6 runs per game in the last 10 wins? Or will we be banking on the club that’s giving up 4.5 runs per game in the last six and just 2.2 runs per game in the last five defeats?
What we do know is that the Red Sox are 2-6 in their last eight road games, are 6-2 on the ‘under’ in the last eight as the favorite and are 5-1-1 on the ‘under’ in the last seven road contests. Is it too late to ride this wave of totals profit? It would have been nice to begin taking advantage of it a little earlier on, but let’s not give up on the ‘under’ trip just yet.
Look ahead Pitchers: May 29 – Tim Wakefield (6-2, 3.99 ERA); May 30 – Brad Penny (5-1, 5.96); May 31 – Jon Lester (3-5, 6.07)
Detroit (26-19, +592)
Despite a small hiccup, posting five straight ‘over’ plays in mid-May, the Tigers have been under like thunder. Not only is a 9-3 record in the last 12 vast improvement from the same club that’s been playing .500 ball for most of the season, but going 7-2 on the ‘over’ in the last nine has been golden.
One word to describe the transformation is pitching.
Between slingers Justin Verlander (5-2, 3.55) allowing four runs in the last six starts (three of those game were shutouts), Edwin Jackson (4-3, 2.58) going 3-1 in his last four outings and rookie slinger, Rick Porcello looking very much the prospect that was signed to an $11.1 million contract out of high school it’s safe to say that defense has been the driving force behind ‘under’ profits.
Whether the total has been set at a high, 11 ½ runs or books deciding to adjust to a low 7 ½, Detroit has been a money club. With a four-game series beginning on Thursday in Baltimore expectations of some high totals should be on the horizon. Having already squared of against the Orioles in seven games this season, bettors have witnessed the ‘over’ cashing in at a 5-2 clip. Books have accommodated the scoring surge (Detroit averaging 5.7 runs per game in this matchup versus Baltimore’s sky high, 7.7 runs per game), setting totals to 10 and 11 runs pending the pitching matchup.
So are we in line for much the same from the Tigers or will the pairing with Baltimore give way to some more high scoring games? A 4-1 ‘over’ record in the last five road stints (versus Minnesota and Kansas City) has some of us envisioning offensive dominating outings.
Look Ahead Pitchers: May 28 – Armando Galarraga (3-4, 5.74); May 29 – Dontrelle Willis (1-1, 3.57); May 30 – Justin Verlander (5-2, 3.55); May 31 – Edwin Jackson (4-3, 2.58)
Colorado (18-28, -1008)
The Rockies are far from being that team you want to lay some bucks on unless you’re going the fade route more times then not. But totals wise, we could be staring at a money maker pending the situation of course.
For instance, the ‘over’ is the way you want to go when Colorado is scheduled to play inside its home confines of Coors Field. We know the title Coors caries, being a home run-friendly park. But you should also get acquainted with the Rockies league worst, 5.70 ERA at home. Allowing team’s to walk all over home plate for 114 total runs and getting tagged for a .305 BAA, it’s not a mystery why the ‘over’ is near automatic.
It’s a much different story on the road. This same pitching staff has earned the reputation of posting the eighth best ERA in the league at 4.30 ERA. The likes of starters Jason Marquis and Jason Hammel have alone accounted for 2.17 ERA in a total of 58.2 innings. And despite closer Huston Street’s high 3.26 ERA which has resulted from a rough season’s beginning, five saves, 12 Ks per nine and a 0.89 WHIP have helped keep the ‘under’ record at 14-9-3.
A 9-4-2 ‘under’ performance in the last 15 road games is the latest result. But its been a mixed bag of tricks as opponents like Detroit, Atlanta and Pittsburgh have either floundered at the plate or vise versa in Colorado’s case. In nine of these road contests the combined score has dipped below eight runs.
It should be emphasized that when the Rockies are coming off an ‘over’ play on the road, the very next game has seen the ‘under’ go 5-3-1.
Look Ahead Pitchers: May 29- Jason Marquis (6-3, 4.45); May 30- Jason Hammels (1-3, 4.10); May 31- Jorge De La Rosa (0-5, 5.26)
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