MLB TRENDS JULY 17

National League

NY Mets at Cincinnati, 7:10 ET
Johan Santana (L) vs. Johnny Cueto (R)
Santana: Mets 11-2 in July
Cueto: Cin 9-23 off one run loss

San Diego at St. Louis, 8:15 ET
Jake Peavy (R) vs. Kyle Lohse (R)
Peavy: 12-1 Over Away off team loss
Lohse: 3-0 TSR, 0.86 ERA L3 starts

Pittsburgh at Colorado, 9:05 ET
Paul Maholm (L) vs. Ubaldo Jiminez (R)
Maholm: Pit 1-13 Away after allowing 10+ runs
Jiminez: 15-5 Under this season

American League

Detroit at Baltimore, 7:05 ET
Kenny Rogers (L) vs. Garret Olsen (L)
Rogers: Det 18-7 vs. lefties
Olsen: Bal 26-17 Over off a loss

Trend Sheet

7:05 PM DETROIT vs. BALTIMORE
Detroit is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 7 games

7:10 PM NY METS vs. CINCINNATI
NY Mets are 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Mets's last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Cincinnati is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games

8:15 PM SAN DIEGO vs. ST. LOUIS
San Diego is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 7 games
St. Louis is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games at home

9:05 PM PITTSBURGH vs. COLORADO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing Colorado
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 12 games
Colorado is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Colorado is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

Around the Horn ATS Style
By Ron Raymond
July 17, 2008

Why do you think there’s a salary cap?

It’s about bringing parity to sports and giving each team a chance to win a championship. Look at the proof in every sport at every level; Who would have guessed the Kansas Jayhawks would have been playing for a BCS Bowl game last year? Who saw the NY G-Men going 0-2 to win the Super Bowl? How do you explain the Colorado Rockies going to the World Series last year? The sports world our parents knew from the 70’s, 80’s and 90’s is not the same sports world of today, money bought championships in those days, parity is about bringing balance to today’s sports.

Why do you think there’s parity? Two words: Sports Betting! Owners knew with the internet and having every thing “on demand” today like NFL Sunday Ticket, to get the younger generation of today which I’ve dubbed “generation what’s in it for me”, would be playing fantasy sports or betting on games to stay interested in the game. Eventually, sports fans are going to realize, if I’m going to pay anywhere from $250 to $1000 a year on viewing sports for things such as Sunday Ticket, NBA Pass, MLB Extra Innings, NHL Centre Ice and numerous other Pay Per View events like MMA and Boxing, how can I get a return on this investment? It’s not like spending $10 to watch a movie for 1 night, were talking hundreds of dollars for a season, for one sport! Now that we are forced to pay to watch sports, it’s become “investment TV” in a sense.

Sports betting and Fantasy Leagues are the future of sports and it will one day be considered and treated like the Stock market.

Which brings me to my point, how do you handicap parity? With teams being equal today, you have to research past situations and play the percentages. That’s why it’s important to consider past mistakes for current profits. Good luck with your betting.

Today’s Baseball Pick

Detroit – Baltimore OVER 10 -110
Action on game.
Keys to selection: When DETROIT Played as a Favorite - During the Last 5 Years - With 1 Under or More - Won Last Game by 2 Runs or Less and own a SU Record of 2 Wins 3 Losses in their L5G; The OVER is 12-2-0 for the Tigers in this spot the last 5 years. Play the OVER.

Baseball Streakers

Who’s Hot: NY Mets 9 SU Wins, Cleveland 4 SU Wins

Who’s Not: Tampa Bay 7 SU Losses, Colorado 4 SU Losses

O/U Streaks: Arizona 4 Over Philadelphia 3 Over, NY Mets 3 Under, Colorado 3 Under
Today’s Stats and Trends

New York Mets vs. Cincinnati: When NY METS team played as a Road team - During a night game - Vs. Right handed pitchers - Coming off a 6 Game Home Stand - Coming off a Home win as a Favorite; The OVER is 11-2-1 for the Mets in this role.

San Diego vs. St.Louis: When ST LOUIS team played as a -100 to -120 Home Favorite - Vs. Right handed pitchers - After a division game - Coming off a Win vs. NL CENTRAL opponent - Coming off a 1 game win; The Cards are 7-3 SU in this spot since ’97.

Pittsburgh vs. Colorado: When COLORADO team played as a -120 to -140 home Favorite - Last 5 years - During the month of July; The Rockies are 12-4 SU in this role L5Y.

Detroit vs. Baltimore: When DETROIT team played as a road team - Vs. Left handed pitchers - During the 2008 season; The Tigers are 10-3 SU in this role this season.

Tips and Trends

Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles [7:05 PM ET]

Tigers (-115. O/U 10): Kenny Rogers will try to turn around a rough stretch from before the All-Star break when he faces the Orioles. Rogers has given up at least three runs in each of his last four starts after allowing one earned run or less four times in his previous five outings. He is 10-9 lifetime vs. Baltimore with a 4.67 ERA and went 3-4 in 10 road starts before the break with a 4.67 ERA.

Tigers are 20-8 in their last 28 games on grass.
The OVER is 7-3-1 in Detroit's last 11 Thursday games.

Key Injuries - OF Magglio Ordonez (.307; oblique) is expected to come off the DL.
SS Edgar Renteria (.254; hamstring) is day-to-day.

PROJECTED SCORE: 7 (OVER - Total Play of the Day)

Orioles : Garrett Olson still has not suffered a loss at home this season, but he also has not pitched well in his last two starts there. Olson has walked away with no-decisions in each of his last two home starts, surrendering 10 runs and 14 hits in 10 innings with three walks and six strikeouts. He remains 3-0 in six starts at Camden Yards with a 4.28 ERA and got pounded for seven runs in three innings of his last start at Toronto last Wednesday.

Orioles are 1-7 in their last 8 games overall.
The OVER is 6-2 in Baltimore's last 8 home games.

Key Injuries - 2B Alex Cintron (.275; hamstring) is on the 15-day DL.

PROJECTED SCORE: 6

New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds [7:10 PM ET]

Mets (-150, O/U 8): Johan Santana ended a personal four-game losing streak last time out against San Francisco last Wednesday and will now try to string together back-to-back wins for the first time since June 1st. The Mets dropped six straight with Santana on the mound before beating the Giants, and he is just 4-4 in 10 road starts with a 3.01 ERA. He faced the Reds back on May 10th and gave up three runs and 10 hits in six innings of a 12-6 victory.

Mets are 9-0 in their last 9 games overall.
Mets are 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.

Key Injuries - OF Ryan Church (.307; post-concussion syndrome) is on the 15-day DL.
2B Luis Castillo (.265; hip) is on the 15-day DL.

PROJECTED SCORE: 6 (Side Play of the Day)

Reds : Johnny Cueto will look to rebound from a loss last time out at Wrigley Field last Wednesday. Cueto had pitched well in winning his previous two starts, allowing three runs and 12 hits in 13.1 innings. However, the Cubs scored five runs on him in 6.2 innings of a 5-1 loss. He is 5-3 in 10 home starts this season with a 4.08 ERA and surrendered six runs and eight hits in 4.2 innings of an 8-3 loss at New York on May 11th.

Reds are 5-2 in their last 7 home games.
The UNDER is 8-2 in Cueto's last 10 home starts.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 3

San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals [8:15 PM ET]

Padres: Jake Peavy brings a 14-inning scoreless streak into this meeting with the Cardinals, registering wins in each of his last two starts. He blanked the Braves and Diamondbacks in those outings, walking three and striking out 13. The Padres had lost his previous three starts and five of the last six before that. Peavy is 3-2 lifetime vs. St. Louis with a 2.89 ERA and 3-2 on the road this season with a 4.41 ERA.

Padres are 9-27 in the last 36 meetings at St. Louis.
The UNDER is 10-2 in San Diego's last 12 Thursday games.

Key Injuries - OF Brian Giles (.301; hamstring) is day-to-day.

PROJECTED SCORE: 3

Cardinals (-115, O/U 7.5): St. Louis has gone 11-1 in Kyle Lohse's last 12 starts, and he is coming off one of his best outings of the season last time out at Pittsburgh. Lohse pitched seven scoreless innings, allowing six hits with one walk and three strikeouts. He has given up two runs or less in five of his last six starts, and he is a dominant 5-1 in 11 home starts with a 2.75 ERA. However, he is 0-2 lifetime vs. San Diego in three starts with a hefty 7.04 ERA.

Cardinals are 10-1 in Lohse's last 11 starts overall.
Cardinals are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.

Key Injuries - OF Brian Barton (.246; hand) is on the 15-day DL.

PROJECTED SCORE: 4

Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies [9:05 PM ET]

Pirates: Paul Maholm has been very solid in his last five starts yet only has a 3-2 mark to show for it. Maholm has given up three runs or less each time during that stretch, including two or less four times. The Pirates scored just four runs combined for him in the two losses, with both coming on the road. In fact, he is only 1-4 in eight road starts with a 4.81 ERA.

Pirates are 3-9 in their last 12 road games.
Pirates are 7-1 in their last 8 Thursday games.

Key Injuries - 1B Adam LaRoche (.251; thumb) is day-to-day.

PROJECTED SCORE: 4

Rockies (-135, O/U 9.5): Colorado has lost four of the last five times Aaron Cook has gone to the mound, due mostly to poor run support. The Rockies have scored five runs or less in all of those games, failing to score more than two runs three times. Cook allowed one run and six hits to the Mets in six innings of a 2-1 loss on Friday. He is 5-3 in nine home starts with a solid 3.39 ERA.

Rockies are 1-5 in their last 6 games overall.
The UNDER is 7-3-1 in Cook's last 11 home starts.

Key Injuries - OF Ryan Spilborghs (.314; oblique) is on the 15-day DL.
1B Todd Helton (back;.266) is on the 15-day DL.
SS Troy Tulowitzki (hand; .166) is on the 15-day DL.

PROJECTED SCORE: 6