MLB Trends Thursday 7/9

TORONTO (43 - 42) at TAMPA BAY (45 - 39)
ROY HALLADAY (R) vs. DAVID PRICE (L)
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 56-68 (-36.2 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 to -150 since 1997.
TORONTO is 1-10 (-9.5 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents this season.
TAMPA BAY is 150-112 (+27.7 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 89-40 (+36.3 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 63-45 (+22.1 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 33-9 (+19.8 Units) against the money line in home games in day games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 90-43 (+33.7 Units) against the money line in games played in a dome over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 96-49 (+34.1 Units) against the money line in games played on artificial turf over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 108-67 (+34.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 51-20 (+26.6 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 52-36 (+15.4 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 55-44 (+17.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
HALLADAY is 109-48 (+37.0 Units) against the money line in games played on artificial turf since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 3-1 (+2.1 Units) against TORONTO this season
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season. (Under=+4.0 Units)

ROY HALLADAY vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
HALLADAY is 11-8 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 3.81 and a WHIP of 1.208.
His team's record is 17-9 (+2.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 14-11. (+1.5 units)

DAVID PRICE vs. TORONTO since 1997
No recent starts.

NY YANKEES (49 - 34) at MINNESOTA (43 - 41)
ALFREDO ACEVES (R) vs. R.A. DICKEY (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY YANKEES is 5-0 (+5.0 Units) against MINNESOTA this season
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.2 Units, Under=-0.4 Units)

ALFREDO ACEVES vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
No recent starts.

R.A. DICKEY vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
DICKEY is 0-1 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 7.20 and a WHIP of 1.800.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-0. (+0.0 units)

CLEVELAND (33 - 51) at CHI WHITE SOX (43 - 40)
DAVID HUFF (L) vs. CLAYTON RICHARD (L)
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 33-51 (-22.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 29-49 (-24.9 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 30-45 (-20.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
CLEVELAND is 16-26 (-11.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 133-116 (+10.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 76-48 (+14.8 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 64-45 (+17.6 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 126-93 (+25.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 46-30 (+13.5 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 73-47 (+22.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHI WHITE SOX is 6-4 (+2.9 Units) against CLEVELAND this season
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.4 Units, Under=-0.7 Units)

DAVID HUFF vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
HUFF is 1-0 when starting against CHI WHITE SOX with an ERA of 5.40 and a WHIP of 1.400.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

CLAYTON RICHARD vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
RICHARD is 1-1 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 7.43 and a WHIP of 1.650.
His team's record is 2-1 (+2.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-1. (+1.0 units)

KANSAS CITY (36 - 47) at BOSTON (50 - 33)
LUKE HOCHEVAR (R) vs. BRAD PENNY (R)
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 63-110 (-34.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 63-92 (-25.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 85-41 (+21.0 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 10-1 (+9.3 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off this season.
BOSTON is 46-26 (+10.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
BOSTON is 66-35 (+21.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

LUKE HOCHEVAR vs. BOSTON since 1997
HOCHEVAR is 0-2 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 6.94 and a WHIP of 1.799.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-1. (-0.2 units)

BRAD PENNY vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
PENNY is 0-1 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 3.86 and a WHIP of 1.286.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

TEXAS (46 - 36) at SEATTLE (43 - 40)
TOMMY HUNTER (R) vs. FELIX HERNANDEZ (R)
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 43-40 (+5.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SEATTLE is 40-36 (+5.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
TEXAS is 46-36 (+11.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TEXAS is 15-7 (+14.1 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 57-61 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 14-7 (+13.0 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 32-25 (+14.9 Units) against the money line in July games over the last 3 seasons.
TEXAS is 16-5 (+11.8 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
TEXAS is 45-34 (+11.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
TEXAS is 34-24 (+11.5 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
TEXAS is 86-77 (+19.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 67-98 (-29.2 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 69-99 (-28.6 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS is 5-0 (+5.9 Units) against SEATTLE this season
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

TOMMY HUNTER vs. SEATTLE since 1997
No recent starts.

FELIX HERNANDEZ vs. TEXAS since 1997
HERNANDEZ is 4-9 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 4.35 and a WHIP of 1.331.
His team's record is 5-13 (-13.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 11-7. (+3.6 units)

TORONTO vs. TAMPA BAY
Toronto is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
Tampa Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

NY YANKEES vs. MINNESOTA
NY Yankees are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing Minnesota
NY Yankees are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Minnesota's last 11 games
Minnesota is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home

CLEVELAND vs. CHI WHITE SOX
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing Chi White Sox
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 9 games when playing Chi White Sox
Chi White Sox are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Chi White Sox's last 23 games at home

ST. LOUIS vs. MILWAUKEE
St. Louis is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 6 games at home
Milwaukee is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games

CINCINNATI vs. PHILADELPHIA
Cincinnati is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Cincinnati is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games on the road
Philadelphia is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

KANSAS CITY vs. BOSTON
Kansas City is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Boston
Kansas City is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games
Boston is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games at home

LA DODGERS vs. NY METS
LA Dodgers are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games
NY Mets are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Mets's last 10 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers

WASHINGTON vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Houston
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Houston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games at home

ATLANTA vs. COLORADO
Atlanta is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games
Colorado is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Colorado's last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta

FLORIDA vs. ARIZONA
Florida is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
Florida is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Arizona's last 23 games at home
Arizona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

TEXAS vs. SEATTLE
Texas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas's last 7 games when playing Seattle
Seattle is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Seattle's last 20 games at home

SAN DIEGO vs. SAN FRANCISCO
San Diego is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games on the road
San Francisco is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 9 of San Francisco's last 13 games when playing San Diego

Hot Pitchers
-- Owings is 2-0, 2.13 in his last two starts, but Reds are 2-6 when he starts on the road. Moyer is 3-0, 3.12 in his last three starts.
-- Wolf has a 3.08 RA in his last five starts; Dodgers are 8-3 in his last eleven outings.
-- Lannan is 4-0, 2.80 in his last six starts.
-- Hanson is 4-0, 0.90 in his last five starts. Cook is 5-0, 2.20 in his last six outings.
-- Lincecum is 5-1, 1.98 in his last six starts, and hasn't allowed a run in his last 23 innings on the mound.
-- Twins won five of last six Liriano starts (2-0, 3.79 in last three).
-- Huff is 2-0, 2.07 in his last two road starts.
-- Royals won Hochevar's last three starts (2-0, 2.70). Penny has a 2.51 RA in his last five starts.
-- FHernandez is 3-0, 1.56 in his last seven starts. Hunter is 1-1, 3.18 in his three starts this season.

Cold Pitchers
-- Parra was 0-4, 13.92 in his last five starts before getting sent to AAA where he had an ERA under 3.00, so he's back. Pineiro is 2-9, 4.39 in his last 12 starts.
-- Mets lost last five LHernandez starts (0-3, 6.44).
-- Astros lost last four Ortiz starts (0-2, 5.54).
-- Miller is 0-4, 6.85 in his last four road starts. Petit is 0-3, 8.42 in six starts this season.
-- Padres are 0-6 on the road when Geer starts (0-2, 7.60).
-- Price is 1-3, 10.42 in his last four starts. Toronto lost Halladay's last three starts (0-1, 4.50).
-- Aceves is making first '09 start; he was 1-0, 2.40 in four starts LY.
-- Richard is 1-3, 7.31 in his last seven starts.

Hot Teams
-- Cardinals won five of their last seven games.
-- Phillies won five of their last six games.
-- Dodgers are 14-8 in their last 22 road games.
-- Astros are 16-9 in their last 25 home games.
-- Rockies won 14 of their last 18 home games.
-- Giants are 16-6 in their last 22 home games.
-- Rays won 18 of their last 21 home games.
-- White Sox won six of their last seven home games.
-- Bronx Bombers won 12 of their last 14 games.
-- Red Sox won three of their last four games.
-- Rangers won seven of their last eight games, scoring 58 runs. Mariners are 13-8 in their last twenty-one games.

Cold Teams
-- Reds lost ten of their last fourteen road games.
-- Mets lost nine of their last 14 home games.
-- Brewers lost five of their last seven games.
-- Nationals lost 21 of their last 25 road games.
-- Braves are 5-9 in last 14 road games, but won last two.
-- Arizona lost seven of its last eleven home games. Marlins lost seven of their last nine road games.
-- Padres lost seven of their last eight games overall.
-- Blue Jays lost seven of their last nine road games.
-- Royals are 7-19 in their last 26 road games.
-- Indians lost 16 of their last 20 games.
-- Orioles lost seven of their last eleven games.

Totals
-- Under is 5-0 in Parra's starts at Miller Park.
-- Seven of Phillies' last eight home games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in Dodgers' last seven road games.
-- Under is 9-1-2 in last twelve games at Minute Maid Park.
-- Nine of last eleven Atlanta road games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 11-5 in Arizona's last sixteen home games.
-- Four of Geer's last five road starts went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Toronto road games went over the total.
-- Eight of last eleven Minnesota games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 3-0-1 in Richard's last four starts.
-- Under is 15-5-1 in last twenty-one games at Fenway Park.
-- Six of last seven FHernandez starts stayed under the total.

National League

ST LOUIS at MILWAUKEE
PINEIRO: STL 8-1 OVER revenging a one run loss
PARRA: 3-12 TSR in the second half of the season

CINCINNATI at PHILADELPHIA
OWINGS: CIN 19-7 UNDER after 3+ consecutive road games
MOYER: PHI 21-6 after scoring 3 runs or less in BB games

LA DODGERS at NY METS
WOLF: 26-12 UNDER in night games
HERNANDEZ: 10-2 TSR as a home underdog of +125 or more

WASHINGTON at HOUSTON
LANNAN: WAS 8-36 AWAY when the total is 7 to 8.5
ORTIZ: 26-12 TSR in July

ATLANTA at COLORADO
HANSON: ATL 33-16 after 3+ consecutive unders
COOK: 1-10 TSR at home after 3+ consecutive wins

FLORIDA at ARIZONA
MILLER: FLA 20-8 OVER revenging BB home losses
PETIT: ARI 8-15 against left-handed starters

SAN DIEGO at SAN FRANCISCO
GEER: SD 17-8 OVER AWAY against right-handed starters
LINCECUM: SF 24-12 at home when the total is 7 to 8.5

American League

TORONTO at TAMPA BAY
HALLADAY: TOR 1-11 AWAY against division opponents
PRICE: TB 11-0 at home after allowing 9+ runs

NY YANKEES at MINNESOTA
ACEVES: NYY 4-1 in games played in a dome
LIRIANO: MIN 6-18 against AL East

CLEVELAND at CHI WHITE SOX
HUFF: CLE 8-18 playing with double revenge
RICHARD: CHW 13-4 UNDER as a home favorite of -125 to -150

KANSAS CITY at BOSTON
HOCHEVAR: KC 17-6 UNDER AWAY against right-handed starters
PENNY: BOS 12-3 UNDER as a home favorite of -150 to -200

TEXAS at SEATTLE
HUNTER: TEX 17-5 against division opponents
HERNANDEZ: SEA 15-4 UNDER playing with double revenge

Tips and Trends

Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies

Braves: The Braves have gone under the total in their last five games. They are averaging 2.8 runs in their past five games. Rookie Tommy Hanson (4-0, 2.25 ERA) makes his seventh big-league start. Hanson has lived up to his huge minor league hype as one of the best pitching prospects in baseball by allowing three runs in his last five starts spanning 30 innings. The right-hander has given up just one run in his last 26 1/3 innings. Atlanta is 5-1 in Hanson’s starts. The under has cashed in Hanson’s past five starts. Hanson, though, only has a 23-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Rafael Soriano has saved games the past two days, while throwing 34 pitches. Chipper Jones has missed the last two games because of a groin injury. Atlanta’s hottest hitter is utility man Martin Prado, who is batting .462 in the last nine games.

The Under is 28-10-5 in Atlanta’s past 43 games versus a right-handed starter.
Atlanta is 2-6 in its last eight games against National League West clubs.

Key Injuries - Chipper Jones (groin) is day-to-day.

PROJECTED SCORE: 4

Rockies (-$1.30 O/U 9 under -$1.15): Since May 12, the Rockies have compiled the best record in baseball at 30-15. They have won 14 games in a row versus National League opponents outside of the West Division. The Rockies have won 13 of their last 15 against teams with a losing record. Aaron Cook (8-3, 3.76 ERA) got the wind knocked out of him in his last start, but says he’s fine to make this start. The Rockies are 7-1 in Cook’s last eight starts with four days rest. The right-handed sinker ball specialist gave up two earned runs on nine hits in five-plus innings against the Diamondbacks in his last start, but lost a chance for a victory when his bullpen failed to hold a lead. Cook is going for his sixth consecutive win, which would be a club record. He’s yielded just nine earned runs in his last six starts spanning 41 innings.

The Over is 18-4-1 in Cook’s last 22 home starts against a team with a losing record.
The Over is 19-8-2 in Cook’s last 29 starts overall.

Key Injuries - Manny Corpas (elbow) is on the DL

PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (Side of the Day)

Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox

Royals: The Royals have struggled against American League East competition losing 100 of their past 147 games to AL East teams. Kansas City has lost six of its last seven at Fenway Park. The Royals are 7-19 in their last 26 overall road contests. Luke Hochevar (4-3, 5.08 ERA), however, is starting to live up to his status as a high draft choice. The third-year right-hander had his best month as a Major Leaguer in June going 3-1 with a 2.94 ERA. The Royals are 5-1 in Hochevar’s past six starts. In his last three starts, Hochevar has given up six earned runs and 14 hits in 20 innings. The key for Hochevar is winning on the road where his ERA is 6.55. Kansas City has lost six of Hochevar’s last eight away outings. Hochevar is 0-2 with a 6.94 ERA in two career starts versus Boston, both coming last year.

The Under is 8-1-1 in Kansas City’s past 10 games.
The Under is 20-6-2 in the Royals’ last 28 road contests versus a right-handed starter.

Key Injuries - John Buck (back) is day-to-day.

PROJECTED SCORE: 4

Red Sox (-$2.00, O/U 9.5): Boston has defeated Kansas City 17 of the last 22 times at home. The Red Sox also are a powerful 82-37 in their last 119 home games when facing a right-handed starter. Brad Penny (6-3, 4.67 ERA) continues to pitch well after a slow start. The 31-year-old righty has surrendered just seven earned runs in his last five starts, giving up 27 hits in 28 2/3 innings. Boston is 6-2 in Penny’s last eight starts at Fenway Park. The under has cashed six of the last seven times Penny has taken the mound. Penny gave up two runs on six hits in six innings during his last start on Saturday against the Mariners. Penny has faced the Royals just once, back in 2005 when he took a loss allowing three runs on eight hits in seven innings when he played for the Dodgers.

The Red Sox are 37-14 in their last 51 games versus American League Central Division foes.

Key Injuries - Mike Lowell (hip) is on the DL.

PROJECTED SCORE: 6 (OVER - Total of the Day)