MLB Trends Thursday 8/6

MINNESOTA (53 - 53) at CLEVELAND (44 - 62)
NICK BLACKBURN (R) vs. FAUSTO CARMONA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
BLACKBURN is 8-23 (-15.6 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
BLACKBURN is 7-21 (-15.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
CLEVELAND is 22-4 (+18.2 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Thursday over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 22-7 (+15.6 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 64-42 (+17.0 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 44-62 (-20.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 43-61 (-23.7 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 22-30 (-14.1 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
CLEVELAND is 34-52 (-21.6 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 39-55 (-19.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
CLEVELAND is 29-48 (-21.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 5-2 (+3.4 Units) against CLEVELAND this season
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.5 Units)

NICK BLACKBURN vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
BLACKBURN is 4-0 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 1.30 and a WHIP of 0.981.
His team's record is 5-0 (+5.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-4. (-3.5 units)

FAUSTO CARMONA vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
CARMONA is 3-4 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 5.24 and a WHIP of 1.489.
His team's record is 4-4 (+2.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-4. (-1.0 units)

BALTIMORE (45 - 61) at DETROIT (55 - 50)
DAVID HERNANDEZ (R) vs. RICK PORCELLO (R)
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 23-53 (-27.6 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 81-145 (-44.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 19-48 (-22.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 32-17 (+10.5 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
DETROIT is 15-4 (+10.1 Units) against the money line in home games in day games this season.
DETROIT is 32-17 (+10.5 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field this season.
DETROIT is 129-138 (-30.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 61-68 (-17.5 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 13-19 (-13.6 Units) against the money line in August games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 83-102 (-34.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 50-53 (-20.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 3-3 (+0.8 Units) against DETROIT this season
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.3 Units, Under=-0.4 Units)

DAVID HERNANDEZ vs. DETROIT since 1997
HERNANDEZ is 1-0 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 1.59 and a WHIP of 1.587.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.1 units)

RICK PORCELLO vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
No recent starts.

LA ANGELS (63 - 41) at CHI WHITE SOX (55 - 52)
ERVIN SANTANA (R) vs. JOHN DANKS (L)
Top Trends for this game.
CHI WHITE SOX are 55-52 (+4.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 34-23 (+9.7 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 86-52 (+21.5 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 49-28 (+14.4 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 51-42 (+9.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
DANKS is 15-5 (+10.5 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LA ANGELS are 63-41 (+21.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
LA ANGELS are 71-38 (+27.3 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 31-21 (+14.6 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
LA ANGELS are 19-6 (+13.5 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 2 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 22-8 (+17.4 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
LA ANGELS are 57-35 (+20.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
LA ANGELS are 23-10 (+13.2 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season.
LA ANGELS are 75-53 (+20.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
SANTANA is 24-11 (+14.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
CHI WHITE SOX is 3-1 (+3.4 Units) against LA ANGELS this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.8 Units)

ERVIN SANTANA vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
SANTANA is 2-3 when starting against CHI WHITE SOX with an ERA of 6.08 and a WHIP of 1.350.
His team's record is 3-4 (-1.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-5. (-3.8 units)

JOHN DANKS vs. LA ANGELS since 1997
DANKS is 1-1 when starting against LA ANGELS with an ERA of 2.78 and a WHIP of 1.412.
His team's record is 1-3 (-2.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-1. (+1.8 units)

TEXAS (59 - 46) at OAKLAND (46 - 60)
TOMMY HUNTER (R) vs. TREVOR CAHILL (R)
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 209-136 (+65.5 Units) against the money line in August games since 1997.
TEXAS is 59-46 (+15.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TEXAS is 61-67 (+12.0 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 21-11 (+10.9 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
TEXAS is 58-44 (+15.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
TEXAS is 37-30 (+9.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
OAKLAND is 61-81 (-25.3 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 5-5 (+0.3 Units) against TEXAS this season
8 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+5.7 Units)

TOMMY HUNTER vs. OAKLAND since 1997
HUNTER is 0-0 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 5.07 and a WHIP of 1.876.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)

TREVOR CAHILL vs. TEXAS since 1997
CAHILL is 1-0 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 1.29 and a WHIP of 0.714.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.1 units)

BOSTON (62 - 43) at NY YANKEES (64 - 42)
JOHN SMOLTZ (R) vs. JOBA CHAMBERLAIN (R)
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 33-38 (-14.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 11-2 (+9.3 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off this season.
BOSTON is 28-13 (+12.8 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
BOSTON is 150-87 (+32.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 221-147 (-64.0 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 10 to 10.5 since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 8-0 (+8.5 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.5 Units)

JOHN SMOLTZ vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
SMOLTZ is 0-1 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 4.24 and a WHIP of 1.471.
His team's record is 1-2 (-0.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-2. (-1.3 units)

JOBA CHAMBERLAIN vs. BOSTON since 1997
CHAMBERLAIN is 1-1 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.375.
His team's record is 2-2 (+0.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (-0.1 units)

SEATTLE (55 - 51) at KANSAS CITY (41 - 65)
JASON VARGAS (L) vs. BRUCE CHEN (L)
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 14-39 (-21.2 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 75-106 (-30.2 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 244-229 (-74.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1997.
SEATTLE is 55-51 (+5.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SEATTLE is 52-47 (+5.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
KANSAS CITY is 41-65 (-22.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 37-64 (-22.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 23-33 (-13.9 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 35-65 (-30.5 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 37-56 (-19.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
KANSAS CITY is 40-57 (-21.4 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 1-9 (-8.8 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 2-1 (+1.0 Units) against SEATTLE this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

JASON VARGAS vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
No recent starts.

BRUCE CHEN vs. SEATTLE since 1997
CHEN is 1-0 when starting against SEATTLE with an ERA of 2.42 and a WHIP of 1.192.
His team's record is 2-2 (+0.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (-0.2 units)

MINNESOTA vs. CLEVELAND
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Cleveland is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
Cleveland is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games at home

FLORIDA vs. WASHINGTON
Florida is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Florida is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Washington is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games when playing Florida
Washington is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Florida

BALTIMORE vs. DETROIT
Baltimore is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Baltimore is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Detroit is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Baltimore

COLORADO vs. PHILADELPHIA
Colorado is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Colorado is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Philadelphia is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Colorado
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Colorado

LA ANGELS vs. CHI WHITE SOX
LA Angels are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games on the road
LA Angels are 17-5 SU in their last 22 games
Chi White Sox are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing LA Angels
Chi White Sox are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against LA Angels

TEXAS vs. OAKLAND
Texas is 1-3-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
Texas is 1-3-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Oakland is 5-1-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Texas

ARIZONA vs. PITTSBURGH
Arizona is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Arizona is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
Pittsburgh is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Arizona

BOSTON vs. NY YANKEES
Boston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Boston is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
NY Yankees are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against Boston
NY Yankees are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing Boston

SEATTLE vs. KANSAS CITY
Seattle is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Kansas City
Seattle is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games on the road
Kansas City is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games at home
Kansas City is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games

NY METS vs. SAN DIEGO
NY Mets are 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
NY Mets are 4-9 SU in its last 13 games on the road
San Diego is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing NY Mets
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 7 games when playing NY Mets

ATLANTA vs. LA DODGERS
Atlanta is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing LA Dodgers
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Atlanta's last 9 games when playing LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Dodgers's last 9 games when playing Atlanta

Hot Pitchers
-- Volstad is 3-1, 2.91 in his last five starts.
-- Cook is 7-0, 3.10 in his last eleven starts. Lee is 4-0, 1.32 in his last four starts.
-- Hart was 3-0, 3.18 in his last three starts for the Cubs.
-- LHernandez is 2-0, 3.15 in his last three starts. Richard is 2-0, 1.25 in his last three starts.
-- Lowe is 4-0, 3.00 in his last five starts.
-- DHernandez has a 2.77 RA in his last four starts.
-- Hunter is 3-1, 2.45 in his last five starts.
-- Chamberlain is 3-0, 0.83 in his last three starts.

Cold Pitchers
-- Stammen is 0-1, 12.91 in his last couple starts.
-- Scherzer is 1-2, 6.40 in his last six starts.
-- Wolf is 1-3, 3.91 in his last four starts.
-- Carmona is 0-2, 12.27 in his last five starts. Blackburn has a 8.46 RA in his last four starts, allowing 40 hits in 22.1 IP.
-- Porcello is 1-3, 7.42 in his last five starts.
-- Danks has a 5.70 RA in his last four starts. Santana is 2-4, 8.20 in his last seven starts.
-- Cahill is 1-5, 9.18 in his last seven starts.
-- Smoltz is 1-2, 8.66 in his last three starts.
-- Chen is 0-6, 6.55 in seven starts for the Royals. Vargas is 0-3, 7.94 in his last five starts.

Hot Teams
-- Nationals won their last four games, scoring 24 runs.
-- Arizona is 18-10 in its last 28 games.
-- Colorado won five of its last six games.
-- Padres won six of their last nine games.
-- Dodgers won seven of their last eleven home games.
-- Tigers are 18-6 in their last 24 home games.
-- Bronx Bombers are 14-5 since the All-Star break. Red Sox are 8-0 against Bronx this season.
-- Angels won five of their last seven games. White Sox won 14 of their last 18 home games.
-- Mariners won three of their last four games.
-- A's are 6-3 in their last nine home games.

Cold Teams
-- Marlins lost three of their last four games.
-- Pirates lost their last five games, allowing 27 runs.
-- Phillies lost five of their last seven games.
-- Mets lost five of their last seven games.
-- Braves are 5-7 in their last twelve games.
-- Indians lost 14 of their last 21 home games. Twins lost seven of their last ten road contests.
-- Orioles lost five of their last six games.
-- Royals lost seven of their last eight games.
-- Rangers lost four of their last five games.

Totals
-- Four of last five Volstad starts stayed under the total.
-- Over is 7-4-1 in Cook's road starts this season.
-- Under is 16-5 in Arizona's last twenty-one road games.
-- Eight of last eleven games at Petco Park stayed under the total.
-- Three of Wolf's last four starts stayed under the total.
-- Over is 4-0-1 in last five Minnesota games.
-- Five of last seven Detroit games went over the total.
-- Over is 13-1-1 in Angels' last fifteen games.
-- Five of last seven Texas games stayed under the total.
-- Three of four Smoltz road starts went over the total.
-- Under is 8-4-1 in Mariners' last thirteen road games.

National League

FLORIDA at WASHINGTON
VOLSTAD: 8-1 TSR AWAY in the second half
STAMMEN: WAS 14-26 at home when the money line is +125 to -125

COLORADO at PHILADELPHIA
COOK: COL 18-9 after 5+ consecutive road games
LEE: 4-12 TSR when the total is 8.5 to 10

ARIZONA at PITTSBURGH
SCHERZER: 2-10 TSR when the money line is -100 to -150
HART: PIT 27-14 revenging BB home losses

NY METS at SAN DIEGO
HERNANDEZ: NYM 11-2 OVER AWAY after 6+ consecutive home games
RICHARD: SD 7-23 after a loss by 4+ runs

ATLANTA at LA DODGERS
LOWE: ATL 4-10 after 2+ consecutive overs
WOLF: 18-4 TSR at home in night games

American League

MINNESOTA at CLEVELAND
BLACKBURN: MIN 64-43 against division opponents
CARMONA: CLE 4-14 after allowing 2 runs or less

BALTIMORE at DETROIT
HERNANDEZ: BAL 6-23 AWAY after 3+ consecutive road games
PORCELLO: DET 15-4 at home in day games

LA ANGELS at CHI WHITE SOX
SANTANA: LAA 14-3 after 2+ consecutive losses
DANKS: CHW 13-4 UNDER against AL West

TEXAS at OAKLAND
HUNTER: TEX 21-12 against division opponents
CAHILL: OAK 2-10 after having won 3 of their last 4

BOSTON at NY YANKEES
SMOLTZ: BOS 12-2 UNDER AWAY after BB losses by 2 runs or less
CHAMBERLAIN: NYY 14-2 after 6+ consecutive road games

SEATTLE at KANSAS CITY
VARGAS: SEA 19-11 AWAY when the money line is +125 to -125
CHEN: KC 3-10 after allowing 8+ runs

Tips and Trends

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees

Red Sox: John Smoltz (2-4, 7.12 ERA) has not done the job for Boston in seven starts since coming off the DL. He has yet to turn in a quality start. Boston is 2-5 in the seven games Smoltz has started. Smoltz has walked only five in 30 innings, but his rhythm and lack of command have been evident. The 42-year-old right-hander has surrendered six homers in his last three outings, spanning 16 2/3 innings. Smoltz was tagged for five runs on eight hits in his last start, a 6-5 win at Baltimore last Friday. Smoltz has only pitched in two regular-season games against the Yankees, posting a 4.50 ERA in two non-decisions. The Red Sox enter Yankee Stadium having defeated New York in all eight meetings this season, including two road games during the first week in May. The under is 4-2-2 in the first eight games.

Boston is 27-12 in its last 39 games versus American League East foes.
Boston is 8-3 under in its last 11 road contests.

PROJECTED SCORE: 4

Key Injuries - Tim Wakefield (back) is on the DL.
Jason Bay (hamstring) is doubtful.

Yankees (-$1.70 O/U 10 over -$1.15): The Yankees are anxious to get the Red Sox at home having been outscored, 42-24, in six losses in six games at Fenway Park. New York is 35-17 at Yankee Stadium, tied with Boston for the top home mark in the American League. The Yankees have won 27 of their last 37 games overall. They are 17-4 in their last 21 when facing a right-handed starter. Joba Chamberlain (7-2, 3.58 ERA) turned in his best performance in his last start throwing eight innings of shutout ball in a 6-2 road win against Tampa Bay eight days ago. The 23-year-old righty is 3-0 with a 0.83 ERA since the All-Star break. New York has won 14 of Chamberlain last 17 home starts. Chamberlain didn’t get a decision in his lone start versus Boston after allowing two runs in 5 1/3 innings on April 24.

New York is 43-18 (70 percent) in its last 61 home games.

Key Injuries - Brett Gardner (finger) is on the DL.

PROJECTED SCORE: 6 (Side of the Day)

Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers

Braves: Derek Lowe (11-7, 4.21 ERA) is quite familiar with Dodger Stadium having been a member of the Dodgers for four seasons before coming to Atlanta. The 36-year-old righty is 33-23 with a 3.21 ERA in 66 career starts at Dodger Stadium. He last pitched there on Sept. 21 of last season, shutting out the Giants for seven innings as a member of the Dodgers. The Braves are 5-0 in Lowe’s past five starts, including beating the Dodgers on Saturday in Atlanta. Lowe allowed three runs on five hits in six innings. The under is 10-4-1 in Lowe’s last 15 starts. The Braves have scored a combined 15 runs and knocked out 31 hits in their last two games, in road victories against the Padres Tuesday and Wednesday. First baseman Adam LaRoche is 9-for-18 in five games with the Braves since being acquired from the Red Sox.

The Over has cashed in 7 of the past 10 meetings between the Braves and Dodgers in Los Angeles.

Key Injuries - Omar Infante (broken hand) is on the DL.

PROJECTED SCORE: 4

Dodgers (-$1.35, O/U 8 over -$1.20): Randy Wolf doesn’t have fancy numbers at 5-6 with a 3.54 ERA. But the Dodgers have won 14 of his last 18 home starts. Los Angeles is 12-3 in Wolf’s past 15 starts as a home favorite. The lefty faced the Braves in his last start on Saturday and lost, 4-3. Wolf yielded four earned and nine hits in six innings, while fanning seven. It was his first non-quality start since June 24, a span of seven starts. Wolf is 4-12 lifetime versus Atlanta. He is 0-5 against the Braves during the past six seasons. The Dodgers are 59-25 (70 percent) in their last 84 games when favored at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers also are 38-18 (67 percent) in their last 56 home contests when going up against a right-handed starter. Slugger Manny Ramirez is 9-for-47 (.191) with three RBI’s in his last 12 games.

The Over is 6-2-1 in the Dodgers’ last nine home games.

Key Injuries - Ronald Belisario (elbow) is on the DL.

PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (OVER - Total of the Day)