MLB weekend cheat sheet
By Marc Lawrence
The second half of the MLB season is officially underway and, like the summer months upon us, the pennant races start to heat up.
As is our custom, let’s focus on the top two series in the American and National League slate this weekend.
Remember, all results are within the series and all pitcher records are ‘team starts’ (the team’s record in games in which the pitcher starts) versus this opponent.
National League
St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies
Most recent series result: Phillies 6-1 in their last seven games (2-0 this season)
Most recent series result at the site: Phillies 4-2 in their last six home games
Key day/month stat: Phillies 18-4 on Sundays; Cardinals 4-9 away on Sundays
Best arm in the series: Phillies’ Moyer 2-0, 0.56 ERA career home
Worst arm in the series: Cardinals’ Wellemeyer 0-3, 7.94 ERA career
Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers
Most recent series result: Brewers are 8-4 in their last 12 games (2-1 this season)
Most recent series result at the site: Brewers are 6-3 in their last nine games at home
Key day/month stat: Brewers 4-0 on Saturdays; Braves 1-7 on Saturdays
Best arm in the series: Braves’ Lowe 4-2, 3.29 career ERA
Worst arm in the series: Braves’ Vazquez 1-3, 7.43 ERA in last four away
American League
Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers
Most recent series result: White Sox are 11-6 in their last 17 games (4-4 this season)
Most recent series result at site: Tigers are 5-3 in their last eight home games (1-1 this season)
Key day/month stat: White Sox are 8-1 Saturdays; Tigers 0-4 Saturdays
Best arm in the series: White Sox’ Floyd 10-1, 3.55 career ERA
Worst arm in the series: Tigers’ Jackson 1-4, 5.72 career ERA
Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels
Most recent series result: Twins are 3-0 in their last three games (3-0 this season)
Most recent series result at the site: Angels are 11-4 in their last 15 games at home
Key day/month stat: Angels are 17-2 at home on Sundays; Twins 6-14 away on Sundays
Best arm in the series: Twins’ Perkins 2-0, 0.56 career ERA
Worst arm in the series: Angels’ Lackey 1-3, 3.85 career ERA
MLB Weekend Top 10
By Bodog.com
The Milwaukee Brewers were 10-1 favorites heading into Thursday’s action to win the National League pennant. Bargain or bust? The Brewers were only two games behind the St. Louis Cardinals (6-1) in the NL Central, but the Cards have a run differential of +25 on the season compared to –6 for Milwaukee. It’s going to take a very strong second half to get the Brew Crew into the playoffs.
They might get one if they trade for Roy Halladay. But it looks like he’ll make at least one more start for the Blue Jays this Friday, one of the 10 games in our latest Top 10 betting preview. All stats are at press time; for the freshest betting lines, visit sports.bodog.com.
Top 10 paying teams
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (61-34, 21.30 units)
2. Los Angeles Angels (55-38, 17.35 units)
3. Texas Rangers (52-41, 13.81 units)
4. Colorado Rockies (52-43, 9.45 units)
5. Seattle Mariners (50-44, 8.49 units)
6. Philadelphia Phillies (53-39, 7.78 units)
7. San Francisco Giants (50-44, 6.29 units)
8. Chicago White Sox (49-45, 5.20 units)
9. Houston Astros (49-46, 4.85 units)
10. Boston Red Sox (55-39, 4.55 units)
Top 10 paying pitchers
1. Matt Palmer, L.A. Angels (9-2 team record, 10.64 units)
2. Jeff Niemann, Tampa Bay (13-4, 9.99 units)
3. Tim Wakefield, Boston (13-4, 9.22 units)
4. Felix Hernandez, Seattle (15-5, 8.80 units)
5. Jason Marquis, Colorado (13-6, 8.76 units)
6. Josh Johnson, Florida (14-5, 8.60 units)
7. Matt Cain, San Francisco (14-5, 8.19 units)
8. Mark Buehrle, Chicago White Sox (14-5, 7.60 units)
9. Wandy Rodriguez, Houston (14-6, 7.49 units)
10. Josh Beckett, Boston (14-5, 6.72 units)
This weekend's top 10 storylines
1. Pittsburgh trades 1B Adam LaRoche to Boston for two minor-leaguers
2. Cardinals send OF Chris Duncan to Red Sox for SS Julio Lugo
3. Kansas City OF Jose Guillen hospitalized with leg pain
4. Rockies push next start for Jason Marquis (blister) from Friday to Tuesday
5. Jason Schmidt earns second start for Dodgers Sunday against Florida
6. Bobby Jenks to remain White Sox closer, says manager Ozzie Guillen
7. Nationals place SP Jordan Zimmerman (elbow) on 15-day DL
8. Twins starter Glen Perkins (shoulder) to visit specialist
9. Colorado closer Manny Corpas (elbow) to undergo surgery Friday
10. Dodgers OF Manny Ramirez (bruised left hand) comes off bench to hit grand slam versus Reds
This weekend's top 10 games to bet on
1. Sunday: Chicago White Sox at Detroit (8:05 p.m. Eastern, ESPN)
It’s off to Comerica Park for the Sunday Night Baseball crew. The under is 41-20-4 in the last 65 games these two AL Central rivals have played in Detroit.
2. Saturday: Minnesota Twins at L.A. Angels (4:10 p.m., FOX)
The Halos are just heavenly right now at 26-9 in their last 35 contests. The Twins split the first six games of this 10-game road swing; they’re 20-27 (–4.99 units) on the road this year.
3. Friday: Tampa Bay at Toronto (7:07 p.m.)
Halladay (11-7 team record, –0.03 units) pitched a complete game against Boston last week and won 3-1. The Rays, undaunted, are 5-2 in their last seven encounters with Halladay.
4. Sunday: St. Louis at Philadelphia (1:35 p.m., TBS)
The Phillies had their 10-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday by the Chicago Cubs. They’ll send J.A. Happ (6-5, +0.34 units) to the mound; the converted reliever is officially 7-0 with five no-decisions and a 2.68 ERA.
5. Friday: San Francisco at Colorado (9:10 p.m.)
The Rockies have climbed their way up the money standings with 32 wins in their last 43 games. Jason Hammel (10-6, +5.43 units) will start against our No. 7 money pitcher, Cain.
6. Sunday: Florida at L.A. Dodgers (4:10 p.m.)
The Dodgers have won five in a row and easily have the best run differential in the majors at +114. The Marlins are back above .500 at 49-47 after winning their last three, but their run differential is still in the red at –16.
7. Saturday: Oakland at N.Y. Yankees (1:05 p.m.)
The Yankees (57-37, +1.45 units) are back in the black and two games ahead of Boston in the AL East after winning six straight – all six going under.
8. Friday: Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m.)
The best pitcher in the Cubs rotation could be Randy Wells (7-6, –0.11 units) who has the under at 9-4 on the season and 5-1 in his last six starts. The Cubs are also 5-1 in his last six.
9. Saturday: Baltimore at Boston (7:10 p.m.)
The Sox are clinging to life in our Top 10 thanks to a five-game losing streak. Jon Lester (12-7, +2.02 units) will look for a win after getting victimized by Halladay on Sunday.
10. Sunday: Cleveland at Seattle (4:10 p.m.)
This is a pitcher’s matchup deluxe with Cleveland’s Cliff Lee (3.17 ERA, but last in the majors at –10.69 units) squaring off against King Felix (2.45 ERA and No. 4 on our money list). The under is a combined 25-15-1 in their starts.
Top Weekend Power Trends 7/24-7/26
With the trade deadline of July 31st rapidly approaching, baseball will continue to define its contenders and pretenders this weekend. In the National League, only one of the three divisions offers a compelling pennant race, the Central, where four teams are separated by two games in the loss column. In the American League, there is significantly more drama, with all three division races much in play. The Central takes center stage again there though over the next three days, with Chicago visiting Detroit for four games. The teams go into the weekend set tied atop the standings. Read on as we look at the action in both leagues’ Central Divisions, and highlight the Top StatFox Power Trends you’ll want to consider as you fill out your baseball wagering cards.
The N.L. Central Division is as tight as any in recent memory as we get ready to wrap up the month of July. St. Louis paces the standings but will be hard pressed to hang on to that spot as it visits red-hot Philadelphia this weekend. The defending champs have won 15 of their last 17 games to take control of the East. The Cardinals meanwhile are in the midst of a tough stretch that sees them take on not just one, but three hot teams including Houston and Los Angeles. Philadelphia will be looking to extend a 4-game winning streak over St. Louis dating back to last season.
Speaking of the Astros, they are at home taking on the Mets, having reached a season-high 3-games over .500. Houston comes off a key 3-game sweep of the Cardinals. Meanwhile, things aren’t so rosy in New York, as the Mets are just 7-16 in their last 23 games. Perhaps the only good news for the Mets is that they will be going with Johan Santana in Game 1 of this set, and SANTANA is 23-3 (+16.2 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game.
The other two teams that remain in the thick of the crowded N.L. Central are the Cubs and Brewers. Chicago is back at home this weekend, hosting the fading Reds who are on a prolonged slump of 13-23 since mid-June. Milwaukee is playing nearly as poorly as Cincinnati and is on the verge of falling out of the playoff picture. Thankfully for the Brew Crew, a 7-game homestand, which includes four games vs. Washington, starts on Monday. Before that however, Milwaukee will look to kick start itself against Atlanta this weekend. The Brewers took two of three in Atlanta last month. Keep an eye on the total in that series, as 15 of the last 19 head-to-head meetings have gone under the total.
In the American League, the big series pits Chicago and Detroit from the Motor City. The Sox have climbed back into a first place tie with the Tigers and are riding the momentum of Mark Buehrle’s perfect game on Thursday afternoon. A day-night doubleheader will start this crucial set. Detroit hopes to get back to the pace that saw it win 26 of its first 38 home games. Chicago has climbed back into the race by winning 22 of its last 33 games. In this head-to-head series, Chicago owns the edge, going 27-17 over the last three seasons, including 12-8 in Detroit.
Now, here’s a look at those Top StatFox Power Trends you’ll want to make note of as you handicap the weekend’s games.
CINCINNATI at CHICAGO CUBS
CINCINNATI is 23-17 (+9.3 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. The average score was CINCINNATI 4.3, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 1*)
SAN DIEGO at WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 15-36 (-19.2 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was WASHINGTON 4.0, OPPONENT 5.2 - (Rating = 1*)
ST LOUIS at PHILADELPHIA
PHILADELPHIA is 24-10 (+15.2 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 5.5, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 1*)
NY METS at HOUSTON
NY METS are 19-31 (-11.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The average score was NY METS 4.1, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 1*)
ATLANTA at MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 30-9 (+18.9 Units) against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MILWAUKEE 5.0, OPPONENT 2.9 - (Rating = 1*)
SAN FRANCISCO at COLORADO
COLORADO is 28-10 (+14.7 Units) against the money line in July home games over the last 3 seasons. The average score was COLORADO 7.0, OPPONENT 4.8 - (Rating = 1*)
PITTSBURGH at ARIZONA
PITTSBURGH is 13-42 (-23.2 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.6, OPPONENT 5.5 - (Rating = 1*)
FLORIDA at LA DODGERS
FLORIDA is 18-10 (+10.0 Units) against the money line vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season. The average score was FLORIDA 4.7, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 1*)
OAKLAND at NY YANKEES
OAKLAND is 17-35 (-16.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The average score was OAKLAND 4.3, OPPONENT 5.0 - (Rating = 1*)
TAMPA BAY at TORONTO
MADDON is 11-39 (-27.7 Units) against the money line in July road games as the manager of TAMPA BAY. The average score was TAMPA BAY 3.4, OPPONENT 6.2 - (Rating = 3*)
CHI WHITE SOX at DETROIT
DETROIT is 12-26 (-15.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DETROIT 4.5, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 1*)
BALTIMORE at BOSTON
BALTIMORE is 43-90 (-33.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 3 seasons. The average score was BALTIMORE 4.6, OPPONENT 5.9 - (Rating = 1*)
TEXAS at KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 12-24 (-12.8 Units) against the money line vs. an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season. The average score was KANSAS CITY 2.9, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 1*)
MINNESOTA at LA ANGELS
MINNESOTA is 27-47 (-22.7 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 5.2 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was MINNESOTA 3.8, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 1*)
CLEVELAND at SEATTLE
CLEVELAND is 19-32 (-13.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The average score was CLEVELAND 4.8, OPPONENT 5.5 - (Rating = 1*)