MLB World Series Betting Preview
By Rob Vinciletti
Playbook.com
Schedule and 2013 Results
Regular Season Records: Boston 97-65, St. Louis 97-65
Game 1 on Wednesday, 23 October: St. Louis at Boston, 7:30pmEDT
Game 2 on Thursday, 24 October: St. Louis at Boston, 7:30pmEDT
Game 3 on Saturday, 26 October: Boston at St. Louis, 7:30pmEDT
Game 4 on Sunday, 27 October: Boston at St. Louis, 8:00pmEDT
Game 5* on Monday, 28 October: Boston at St. Louis, 7:30pmEDT
Game 6* on Wednesday, 30 October: St. Louis at Boston, 7:30pmEDT
Game 7* on Thursday, 31 October: St. Louis at Boston, 7:30pmEDT
* if needed
In the 2013 MLB regular season, Boston and St. Louis finished with Identical 97-65 records in the regular season. From 1905 through the 2013 MLB Semifinals round, inclusive, the MLB team with home field advantage in this situation (Boston) posted a 4-1 (.800) best of seven series record in those series against those opponents. MLB best of seven playoff series 1220 is the 30th best of seven MLB playoff series for St. Louis, and the 20th for Boston. In best of seven MLB playoff series, St. Louis has a 17-12 series record, an 11-7 Finals-round series record, and a 12-17 Game 1 record with an active win streak of 3 in Game ones. Boston has a 10-9 series record, a 6-4 Finals-round record, and an 11-8 Game 1 record. Series 1220 is the fourth best of 7 MLB playoff series meeting between St. Louis and Boston: St. Louis won series 59 (the 1946 MLB Finals) and 186 (the 1967 MLB Finals); Boston won the most recent series # 938 in 2004..
HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Playing Game 1 @ H:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team playing Game 1 @ home (Boston) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2013 MLB Semifinals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 819-400 (.672)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 162-83 (.661)
series record, MLB only, all rounds: 89-71 (.556)
series record, MLB only, Finals round: 60-44 (.577
The Inter league indicators are favoring Boston here as the Redsox have won 14 of 20 vs National League teams this season, including 8 of 10 at home. Boston has averaged 5.5 runs in those home games. Long term Boston has won 15 of 20 here vs N.L Central teams. The St. Louis Cardinals finished an average 10-10 record vs American League teams splitting at 5-5 whether home or away. The Cardinals are 4-6 vs Boston going as far back as 2004 with 7 of those 10 games stating under the total. The Cardinals are 2-3 here in Boston and 12-8 overall on the road vs A.L. East teams.
Statistical Break downs in the graph below a slight edge for Boston. Offensively Boston shows the edge while The Cardinals have an overall Pitching edge. The Cardinals finished #1 in the N.L. in scoring and Boston #1 in the A.L. The Cardinals were #1 in road era and Boston #2 in home era.
St. Louis's Overall Scoring vs Boston's Overall Defense 4.8 1 4.1 6
St. Louis's Away Scoring vs Boston's Home Defense 5.0 1 4.0 4
St. Louis's Road ERA vs Boston's Home ERA Allowed 3.8 6 5.1 2
Boston's Overall Scoring vs St. Louis's Overall Defense 5.3 1 3.7 5
Boston's Home Scoring vs St. Louis's Road Defense 5.2 2 4.0 7
Boston's Home ERA vs St. Louis's Road ERA Allowed 3.6 4 4.5 1
STL TEAM BOS
4.83 RUNS 5.27
3.68 RUNS AGNST 4.05
1.15 DIFF 1.22
$1,173 MONEY $1,787
3.43 TEAM ERA 3.79
9.22 OFF HITS 9.67
2.97 OFF WALKS 3.59
6.85 OFF Ks 8.07
8.43 DEF HITS 8.43
2.78 DEF WALKS 3.23
7.74 DEF Ks 7.99
Hitting OPS splits
LH hitters vs. LH pitchers: BOS hitters posted a .641 OPS during the regular season; STL hitters posted a .682 OPS
LH hitters vs. RH pitchers: BOS hitters posted an .805 OPS during the regular season; STL hitters posted a .667 OPS
RH hitters vs. RH pitchers: BOS hitters posted a .730 OPS during the regular season; STL hitters posted a .723 OPS
RH hitters vs. LH pitchers: BOS hitters posted an .833 OPS during the regular season; STL hitters posted a .793 OPS
Pitching OPS splits
LH pitchers vs. LH hitters: BOS pitchers allowed a .663 OPS during the regular season; STL pitchers allowed a .588 OPS
LH pitchers vs. RH hitters: BOS pitchers allowed a .721 OPS during the regular season; STL pitchers allowed a .677 OPS
RH pitchers vs. RH hitters: BOS pitchers allowed a .748 OPS during the regular season; STL pitchers allowed a .665 OPS
RH pitchers vs. LH hitters: BOS pitchers allowed a .683 OPS during the regular season; STL pitchers allowed a .712 OPS
For the first time since 1999 the teams from both leagues that had the best record will meet to decide the World Series. These two are no strangers to each other as they have met three times in the World series, the first time in 1946, followed by 1967 and then just 9 years ago in 2004. In that series Boston dispatched of the Cardinals in a 4 game sweep. This go round should be much more competitive
In closing we note that this series has the look of one that can go the distance. These two teams have similar numbers in several key categories. The better hitting team is Boston and St. Louis has the better pitching team. The Cardinals are led by the Clutch Bat of Carlos Beltran who makes his first World Series appearance and seems to get every big hit for the Cardinals. A. Wainwright is the ace of the staff and will make the game one start against a crafty lefty in J. Lester for Boston. The strength of the Boston team is their hitting and Big Papi, David Ortiz leads the way with a supporting cast of clutch hitters. The tentative pitching rotations will likely play out with St. Louis starting Wainwright followed by Wacha, Kelly and Lynn. Boston appears poised to go with Lester, Lackey, Buchholz and Peavy. Boston is a slight favorite at -130 in this series. However this is one of the closest World Series Matchups in recent times. This series will likely get decided by intangibles and which ever team is able to execute late in the games. While Boston has some of the statistical sets on their side, we will back the Dog with the better pitching and propensity for clutch hitting. While we will analyze the series on a game to game basis we will lean with St. Louis to win in a long 6-7 game series. We hope you enjoyed the Preview as well as the upcoming games.