MLB's Best and Worst September Bets
By JON KUIPERIJ
The length of the baseball season tests a team’s ability to maintain focus and intensity through to Game 162.
Some are better than others - and it's not always the playoff-bound teams that do it.
It should come as no surprise that the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Angels have three of the top September records over the past three years.
But you might be surprised by a couple teams that tend to play their best baseball in the final month, and by a couple teams that don't.
Strong finishers
Philadelphia Phillies
The defending World champions are usually a reliable bet throughout the season, but they turn up their game another notch in September. Philadelphia is 52-30 (.634 winning percentage) in the final month over the past three seasons, compared to 266-220 (.530) in the other months.
It hasn’t been just one phenomenal September that skewed the Phils’ numbers either – they’ve been 17-11 or better all three years. The team might not have that much incentive to continue its hot September play this year, considering it has a very comfortable lead in the NL East.
Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto has been a strong September team the past three seasons, going 49-33 (.598). That winning percentage is much higher than the Jays’ record in other months (207-197, .512). Making this trend even more impressive is the fact that September schedules are often loaded with division matchups. In Toronto’s case, that means plenty of games against the Red Sox and Yankees.
The Jays’ September success might come to an end this year, however. Toronto has often appeared overmatched and disheartened in losing 20 of its past 29 games.
Kansas City Royals
Kansas City is under .500 in September the past three years (40-41, .493), but that’s still a dramatic improvement over the Royals’ record during the other months (166-239, .410). The Royals’ fall numbers are inflated a bit by last year’s results, when KC won 18 of its final 26 games. It'd be hard to imagine a similar run to end this season, since the Royals have dropped 35 of their last 49 contests.
Fading finishers
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles are the best team in baseball at one thing - waving the white flag. Baltimore actually hasn't been that bad from April to August the past three years, posting a record of 182-220 (.453). But the Orioles don't seem to worry about building momentum for the following season once it gets to September.
They are a league-worst 25-58 (.301) in the final month the past three campaigns, including 5-20 last year. Baltimore seems to be up to its old tricks again this season, starting September with three straight losses.
Detroit Tigers
Forgive Detroit fans if they don't not feel comfortable with a six-game lead in the AL Central. Despite playing well above .500 ball in the first five months of the season the last three years (221-184, .546), the Tigers have stumbled significantly in two of the last three Septembers.
They are 36-45 overall (.444) in the first month of fall during the last three years, including a 12-16 mark in 2006 that nearly cost them a playoff spot. Detroit has started this September on the right foot, however, winning its first three games.
St. Louis Cardinals
Like the Tigers, St. Louis has shown a tendency to play good baseball until the finish line is in sight. The Cardinals' pre-September record the last three years was 210-190 (.525), but St. Louis has gone 37-48 (.435) to close out the seasons.
That trend might continue this year. The Cards have all but locked up the NL Central title and might rest starters or lose focus in the final weeks.