MLB's Best Home Betting Trends
By CHRIS BERNUCCA
When you go to the ballpark, do you "root, root, root for the home team"?
Root harder. It's not working.
Through Monday, home baseball teams have won 55.6 percent of their games (423-337). Although that figure may not seem high, it is actually up more than three percentage points from last year's mark of 52.3.
But those are just the straight up numbers. Where home teams are really not performing in 2009 is on the runline. Thus far, home teams are just 351-409 against the spread for a paltry percentage of 46.25.
In other words, you could pick nine random games each night, get behind the road team and claim five winners.
Home favorites are even worse at 224-325, clicking at a percentage of just 40.80. The overall performance by home teams ATS is greatly enhanced by the showing thus far by home underdogs, who are at 127-83.
Two months into the season, there appears to be an emerging trend: Grab the underdog. When you combine the home underdog and road underdog totals, you get a win-loss mark of 452-307 for a percentage of 59.55.
That ratio at the favorable prices that accompany underdogs has made trend players rich through April and May, although it won't necessarily continue through the summer months.
And despite the heavy tilt toward underdogs in home parks, there are still strong favorite plays out there. Here are the top five home team trends in 2009:
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are doing their best to buck the trend all by themselves. They own a SU mark of 18-6 at Dodger Stadium - the best in the major leagues - and have returned $901. Furthermore, LA is 23-4 in its last 27 games as a home favorite with a price ranging from -110 to -150.
Even without suspended Manny Ramirez's loud bat, the Dodgers are putting up some crooked numbers at Chavez Ravine. The over is 10-3-2 in the last 15 games at Dodger Stadium.
2. Washington Nationals
How bad are the Nationals? Their 16-36 mark is more than 100 percentage
points lower than baseball's next-worst team. That includes a 7-16 record at home - and four of those wins have come with Shairon Martis on the hill.
Remember, these are the top home trends, not the top home teams. And one of the top home trends this season is to bet against Washington in its home park, where it is still occasionally priced as a favorite.
3. San Diego Padres
Not much was expected of the Padres this season, but thus far they have proved the prognosticators wrong as they have hovered around .500 on the strength of a sparkling 17-7 record at home. No team has returned more money as a home team this season than the $974 produced by the Padres.
Totals players will like this trend: The under is 38-17 in San Diego's last 55 games as a favorite in spacious Petco Park.
4. Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays are the only team besides the Padres and Dodgers that has returned more than $900 at home to date, courtesy of their 18-7 mark at Rogers Centre. And keep in mind that Toronto has been favored in all but two home games this season.
When Toronto got off to its quick start, skeptics pointed to an easy early schedule - a notion reinforced by the Blue Jays dropping two of three at home when the New York Yankees visited from May 12-14. But after an awful 0-9 road trip, Toronto returned home to take two of three from Boston.
5. San Francisco Giants
Yes, another team from the National League West, the division with the biggest home seesaw. Driven by the 1-2 pitching punch of Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, the Giants are 18-9 at AT&T Park and have returned $749 in those games.
Just as strong a trend has been San Francisco's performance as a favorite at home, bucking the league-wide season trend by going 15-7 at the higher price.