MLB's Fast And Slow Starters
By Doug Upstone
Spring training is in the home stretch for all 30 Major League baseball clubs, as final preparations are being made on how teams will start the season and what 25 players will be on the various rosters to start 2011.
For those that wager on baseball, the glorious journey is about to begin. Similar to the players themselves, the daily grind of studying 15 contests a day for at least five days a week and attempting to win every single day and understanding failure is part of the equation.
Everyone has their theories about what is the best way to beat the oddsmakers, however if you break the game down to one simple theory, this can be used as a starting point.
The best teams in baseball are around .500 playing against the other top clubs in the league and beat up on the weaker ones.
Let's take last year's World Series champion San Francisco. The Giants strong last five weeks of the season and San Diego's collapse propelled the team by the bay to a record of 92-70, the best in the National League West.
A closer inspection of San Francisco's season finds when they played teams above .500 in 2010, the Giants were an unsightly 29-35 based on end of the year records. However, when San Fran was up against the teams that could not match their pitching or clutch hitting, they were a domineering 63-35 vs. opponents that were below .500.
Looking ahead to this season, last year's records do not guarantee the same results will prevail, yet it is a benchmark to analyze what could take place and how particular teams might start depending on the current schedule. Looking at the bigger picture, wagering opportunities are should prevail.
In the National League, the Arizona Diamondbacks have Pittsburgh to thank or they would have been the worst team in the league last year with their 65-97 record. The D-Backs transitioned Kirk Gibson from coach to manager last season and he will be in charge of a group Tommy Lee and Vince Neal would be a proud of, a motley crew.
With the beginning of the season, Arizona will face teams that finished .500 or better 27 times among its first 37 games. By May 5, the Snakes will have faced San Francisco, Cincinnati (six games), Philadelphia, and Colorado (six games). Almost assuredly, the D-Backs will need a house call from Dr. Feelgood.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have more talent than Arizona, but they will potentially be tested in a more difficult fashion with their first 19 games against clubs that were above .500 last year. The season commences with four home conflicts against bitter rival San Francisco, which is followed by a road trip to Colorado, San Diego and Frisco. If that isn't difficult enough, the Dodgers return home to Chavez Ravine for a pair of four-game series against St. Louis and Atlanta. Welcome skipper Don Mattingly.
Philadelphia and Cincinnati are favored to win their respective divisions and are primed for fast starts. The Phillies only play seven ballgames against teams with .500 or better records among its first 31 trips to the yard and the Reds take on only six such outfits among its initial 37 contests.
In the American League, you do not need an Ivy League education to determine Toronto and Baltimore are up against foreboding schedules in 2011. Being positioned in the AL East guarantees the Blue Jays and Orioles are in for a struggle, looking up at Boston, New York and Tampa Bay.
Toronto begins the season with six home encounters, which is immediately followed by playing 20 of next their 25 on the road. The Jays led the big leagues in home runs last season and will need the long ball to combat this conglomeration of foes. Starting April 15 until May 19, the only teams Toronto will face are the Yankees, Boston, Tampa Bay, Texas, Detroit and Minnesota. For the Blue Jays this sets up to be more burdensome than sitting across from Marisa Miller and Brooklyn Decker and trying not to stare.
The Orioles schedule is no less intimidating with 28 of first 38 tilts versus clubs that were .500 or better. By May 3, we'll know if manager Buck Showalter was able to build on last year's momentum, because other than three games with Cleveland on March 15-17, the rest of the schedule includes the Rays, Red Sox, Yankees, Rangers, Twins, White Sox and Tigers.
Both Cleveland and Kansas City have no real expectations of being Central Division contenders, yet either or both could be a surprise team early. The Indians face teams similar to themselves as 22 of 34 contests are against rosters that were below the breakeven point.
Kansas City has an absolutely loaded minor league system that should help the Royals in the coming years; nevertheless, they could be around .500 by May 8, as 23 of first 34 games are at Kauffman Stadium. Just 11 of K.C.'s 31 opening encounters are vs. foes that finished in the black a season ago.