Winners Edge
CBB
Kansas + 2 , 2 units
MLB
LA Dodgers +135 , 2 units
Braves / Rockies under 10 -110 , 1 unit
GAMBLERS WORLD
Sport: NCAA Basketball Game: 9:15PM, Kansas faces Memphis in national hoops final
Prediction: Kansas Jayhawks
Current Line: -1.5 Over/Under: 144 Reason: The Kansas Jayhawks and Memphis Tigers left little doubt about who should be in the national college hoops final. They destroyed their foes in the Final Four night Saturday and lock up Monday night at the Alamodome to decide this year's NCAA champion. Oddsmakers currently have the Jayhawks listed as 1½-point favorites versus the Tigers, while the game's total is sitting at 144. Brandon Rush dropped 25 points in helping Kansas defeat North Carolina 84-66 in the Final Four, as 3.5-point underdogs on the road. The combined score fell UNDER the posted total of 159. Darnell Jackson tossed in 12 points for Kansas, while Mario Chalmers and Sherron Collins each had 11 points apiece in the win. Chris Douglas-Roberts tossed in a game-high 28 points to lead Memphis past UCLA 78-63 in the Final Four. Memphis easily covered the slight 2-point spread, while the combined 141 points made it OVER the posted total of 134.5. Derrick Rose shot 11-for-12 from the free throw line, and chipped in with 25 points for Memphis. Team records: Kansas: 36-3 SU, 20-15-2 ATS Memphis: 38-1 SU, 20-19 ATS Kansas most recently: When playing on Monday are 5-5 After playing North Carolina are 0-1 After a win are 10-0 Memphis most recently: When playing on Monday are 5-5 After playing UCLA are 0-1 After a win are 10-0 A few trends to consider: Kansas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games Memphis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
BEN BURNS
BASEBALL
UNDER Rockies/Braves
Game: Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies
Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Colorado and Atlanta to finish UNDER the number. The Braves have gotten off to a hot start offensively. However, they were involved in a pitcher's duel yesterday, knocking off the Mets by a score of 3-1. Traveling to the cool temperatures in Colorado, I expect them to be involved in another relatively low-scoring affair this evening. The Rockies have seen two of their three home games finish below the number and none of those games produced more than nine combined runs. Dating back to April 2006, the UNDER is now 12-6 the last 18 games played here in the month of April. The Braves altered their rotation so that Smoltz could face New York yesterday and that Glavine, who has been successful (3-3 with a 3.97 ERA in 12 career starts) here, could pitch this evening. Glavine, who has seen the UNDER go 12-2-1 his last 15 starts in the month of April, had the following to say: "I think, in order to be successful there (Coors) you have to keep the ball down and that's what I always do." Glavine will have the luxury of facing a struggling Colorado offense that is currently averaging 1.7 runs per game, lowest in the majors. Cook, who has seen the UNDER go 4-2 his last six April starts, wasn't great in his opening start. He wasn't terrible either, allowing four runs in six complete innings. It should be noted that he closed out last season by allowing three earned runs or less in seven straight starts. Look for the Rockies' streak of low-scoring April games here to continue.
UNDER Nationals/Marlins
Game: Florida Marlins vs. Washington Nationals
Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Nationals and Marlins to finish UNDER the number. Miller wasn't sharp in his Marlins' debut. However, that was against the Mets, a much more potent lineup than the one he'll see today. Indeed, while the Mets are averaging 10.2 hits, four walks and six runs per game, the Nationals are averaging 4.3 runs with 8.7 hits and 2.4 walks. Note that Miller will have the advantage of facing the Nationals for the first time. Additionally, note that the lone game in the Nationals' new stadium finished well below the number with a score of 3-2. Redding takes the mound for the home team and he's coming off a superb opening start in which he held Philadelphia to one hit, a single in the second, in seven shutout innings. The Nationals would go on to win that game by a score of 1-0. Dating back to last July, Redding has now seen the UNDER go a profitable 13-2-1 his last 16 starts. Lastly, note that Redding has a 2.00 ERA in five career starts vs. the Marlins, never allowing more than two earned runs in any of those starts. Like last week's season opener, look for the Nationals' second game in their new home to also be lower scoring than expected. *Blue Chip
ASTROS
Game: St Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros
Prediction: Houston Astros Reason: I'm playing on HOUSTON. I had a lot of success playing on Wandy Rodgriguez at home last season and I'm going to back him in his first home start this season. Rodriguez didn't pitch particularly well in his debut, although the Astros still won. That's not all that surprising though, as he rarely pitched well on the road last season. He was almost always sharp at home though, as the Astros went 11-3 his last 14 starts here and 11-4 his last 15 overall. In fact, Rodriguez didn't even allow more than three earned runs in any of his first 12 starts here, allowing two or less in 10 of those games. While he doesn't have great career numbers vs. the Cardinals, Rodriguez did pitch well against them last season, allowing three runs through seven innings in his first start and just one run through eight complete innings in his most recent start against them, a game that the Astros won by a score of 18-1. Note that Rodriguez didn't issue a walk in either game. Its also interesting to note that St. Louis slugger Albert Pujols is 0-9 against Wandy, the longest he has gone hitless against any major league pitcher. Its also worth noting that Rodriguez went at least six complete innings in 10 of his 15 starts here last season, averaging 6 1/3 overall. Conversely, Welleymeyer failed to pitch more than six innings in any start for the Cards last season, averaging just 4 1/2 innings per outing. Look for Rodriguez to outpitch and outlast Welleymeyer here, as the Astros start off the series with a much needed victory.
PHILLIES
Game: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies Reason: I'm laying the price with PHILADELPHIA. After winning Friday's opener, the Phillies dropped both games against the Reds over the weekend. I feel that they'll have the advantage on mound this afternoon though and I look for them to salvage the series split. Hamels got tagged with a loss in his first start, while Arroyo didn't receive a decision in his. However, Hamels was actually the much sharper of the two and I feel that he's the stronger pitcher overall. While Arroyo gave up four runs (two earned) in just five innings, Hamels allowed a mere one run through eight complete innings. Unfortunately for Hamels, his team couldn't deliver him any run support. That'll happen from time to time. However, its not likely to happen often to Hamels with a normally potent Philadelphia offense behind him. If Hamels pitches anything like he did the last time he traveled here, he won't be in need of much run support this afternoon. The last time he pitched here, which happened to be last April, he tossed a complete game, while striking out 15 Cincinnati hitters. The Phillies won 4-1, with manager Charlie Manuel summing up his performance by saying: "He was super, man." Hamels had previously only pitched at Cincinnati once and that came in his major league debut. In that game, he had seven strikeouts and allowed only a single hit through five innings. That gives him a miniscule 0.64 ERA in two starts here with 22 Ks (only two walks) in 14 innings. Looking at it another way, Cincinnati has 11 current players who have faced Hamels in their careers and they've gone a combined 4-for-35, striking out 17 times. Despite yesterday's victory, the Reds remain a money-burning 48-68 when playing during the afternoon the past few seasons. Look for their struggles against Hamels to continue for another day. *Personal Favorite
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
UNDER Kansas/Memphis
Game: Kansas vs. Memphis
Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Kansas and Memphis to finish UNDER the number. Everyone knows that both these teams can score. However, they often forget that both teams are also capable of playing great defense. UCLA entered Saturday's Final Four contest having scored 88 and 76 points in its previous two games, while shooting 47.9% for the season. However, the Tigers held the Bruins to just 37.5% shooting and 63 points. Due to an unusually high-scoring first 10 minutes, that game snuck above the total. That only occured in the final minute though, as the Bruins kept fouling to prolong the game. Note that the Tigers have seen the UNDER go 4-1 their last five against teams from the Big 12 and 3-0 their last three tournament championsip games. Kansas was arguably even more impressive on the defensive side of the ball, holding North Carolina to just 66 points. That's extremely impressive considering that the Tar Heels were averaging 91.6 points their previous five games and 89.2 on the season. Not surprisingly, that game stayed below the number, bringing the UNDER to 20-10-2 the last 32 times that the Jayhawks were listed as underdogs, including a 6-1 mark the last seven times that they were listed as neutral court underdogs of three points or less. Note that the UNDER is also a profitable 30-14 their last 44 non-conference games which had an over/under line, including 4-0 their last four games overall. Prior to North Carolina's 66 points, the Jayhawks had held their four previous opponents to 57, 57, 56 and 61. The number has risen by a few points, giving us excellent line value. I look for more strong defensive play resulting in the final combined score being much lower than most are expecting. *NCAA Total of the Year
Insider Sports Report
4* Seattle (Silva) -115 over Baltimore (Cabrera)
Range +100 to -135
3* Minnesota (Blackburn) +120 over Chicago White Sox (Vazquez)
Range +140 to +100
3* Kansas/Memphis (NCAAB) UNDER 146
Range 148 to 144
Seabass
Baseball
10 Washington
10 San Diego
20 Philly
10 Pitt
20 Sea/Bal Under
Hoops
50 Kansas
JB's Computer plays
3:05 p.m. Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles
(R) Carlos Silva (1-0) vs. (R) Daniel Cabrera (0-0) Baltimore Orioles + 105
4:35 p.m. San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants
(R) Greg Maddux (0-0) vs. (R) Matt Cain (0-0) San Diego Padres - 110
7:05 p.m. St. Louis Cardinals at Houston Astros
(R) Todd Wellemeyer (1-0) vs. (L) Wandy Rodriguez (0-0) St. Louis Cardinals + 110
Michael Cannon
30 Dime
KANSAS
Take Kansas over Memphis in the NCAA Championship game tonight.
Both teams come into this game on tremendous runs, obviously, and I won’t make a case against Memphis for any shortcomings they have, because there really aren’t any.
Instead, this is more of why Kansas is better suited to pull this game off.
The Jayhawks can and will stay with Memphis on both ends of the floor, which is something they proved they could do in their decisive win over North Carolina on Saturday.
Kansas has the athleticism to hound the Tigers backcourt duo of Chris Douglas-Roberts and Derrick Rose, something Ucla struggled with all game long.
As far as the frontcourt goes, the Jayhawks have versatility with Darrell Arthur, Darnell Jackson and reserves Sausha Kaun and Cole Aldrich who can all score and defend just as well if not better than Memphis can.
In the coaching matchup, I trust that Bill Self will have a gameplan all mapped out that will force Memphis to work harder than they had to in any other game thus far in the tournament.
Memphis was able to get by with supreme athleticism in their wins over Michigan State, Texas and Ucla. None of those teams could handle what Memphis brought to the table.
But Kansas can, as evidenced by its win over North Carolina. I believe the Tarheels and Memphis are just about even in the athleticism and speed department.
Seeing Kansas dismantle one of the fastest teams in the nation gives me all the confidence in the world that they can do the same thing tonight.
Take Kansas as your 2008 NCAA Champions.
10 Dime
NATIONALS (With Redding as listed pitcher)
Take the Nationals tonight for the home win over the Marlins.
The Marlins look like they could lose 100 games this year. They are extremely thin in the pitching department and have few impact hitters.
The Nationals probably won’t be much better, but I like them in this spot at home.
Tim Redding will start for Washington and he’s had some success against the Marlins in his career, going 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA in five games.
Florida will counter with Andrew Miller, who was acquired in the Miguel Cabrera-Dontrelle Willis trade with the Tigers. But Miller hasn’t proven that he’s even capable of taking a regular turn in the majors, and pitching for the Marlins on the big stage right now could stunt his progress.
Miller had 39 walks in just 64 innings last season for Detroit, and was touched for five earned runs in just 4 1-3 innings in his 2008 debut.
Redding is no Cy Young candidate, but he’s more apt to give the Nationals a good outing tonight than Miller is for Florida.
Take the Nationals for the home win.
BOB THE HAT
2*Memphis Tigers
CAPT. MORGAN
3*Memphis
2*Pirates
2*Giants
THE SHARK
2*Cubs
2*Dodgers Under
2*White Sox
THE G FACTOR
2*Indians
2*Mariners
2*White Sox Over
BILLY COLEMAN
2*Cardinals
2*White Sox
2*Pirates Under
GREAT LAKES
3*Angels
2*Braves
2*Memphis Tigers
JAMES PATRICK
3*Cubs
2*Indians
2*Memphis Under
Winning Points Online MLB
MINNESOTA (Blackburn) +145 over CHICAGO W. SOX (Vazquez)
This looks like a classic letdown situation for Chicago,coming off a stunning three game sweep over the Tigers at Comerica. They had to fly home following a Sunday night game, for a late afternoon opener here at US Cellular. The Twins will send young Nick Blackburn to the hill for his 2nd start, after watching him surrender just one hit in seven innings pitched in his debut. The White Sox lost money at home in 2007 (-$885) and we're catching an excellent price with the visitor in this one.
Doc's
4 Unit Play. Take Over 147 in Kansas vs. Memphis
Both of these squads are No. 1 seeds and any sane person could think of numerous ways that either team could win. That being said, both teams can score at will and expect the winner to be in the eighties. Since the spread is close to even, expect there to be fouling in the last couple of minutes to propel this game over the posted total. Memphis is playing outstanding basketball right now and their guards can get to the hoop whenever the want. Kansas has great size as well and played an outstanding first half against North Carolina to amass a 28-point lead. Memphis wins this game close, as both teams reach eighty points.
3 Unit Play.Take Memphis -2 over Kansas
Is this the year that a non-BCS Conference team wins it all? History says no, since nobody has done it since UNLV, but the Tigers are just too talented to be denied the championship in 2008. Recent history has shown freshman dominating the Final Four and Memphis has one of the best in Derrick Rose, a likely lottery pick should he decide to come out. Kansas has not had any success in the Final Four recently and they are the more veteran team and the pressure will start to get to them. This will be a very entertaining game that Memphis will pull away from late giving us the victory.
WUNDERDOG
MLB
Game: Philadelphia at Cincinnati
Pick: Philadelphia -145 (moneyline)
Cole Hamels has nothing but good memories of pitching in Cincinnati. He made his major league debut here back in '06 and pitched five innings for 0 runs, one hit while striking out seven hitters. He came back last year and tossed a complete game gem: five hits and 15 punch-outs. His Cincinnati tally is now 14 innings, six hits and 22ks for a slim 0.71 ERA. The Reds really struggled against LHP last season and consequently, they saw a lot of them. While they played just about .500 against RHP, they were just 25-40 against southpaws. The Reds were just 12-22 in Arroyo's starts last season and the Reds were even worse with Arroyo on the mound facing a LHP where they finished with just a 3-7 record. Hamels has a very positive mindset to call on pitching here, and the Reds have done nothing with him and struggle big time against LHP, and win just 35% of the time with Arroyo on the hill. We'll back the Phillies on the road here.
Will Sykes
5* Gem Kansas Jayhawks ML
JEFF SCOTT 6-1 last week
Atlanta/ Colorado OVER 10: The Over is 12-4-1 in Cooks last 17 home starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5 and 16-5 the in Rockies last 21 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400, while the Over is 16-5-2 in the last 23 meetings between these teams. Glavive has had some success vs the Rockies in the past, but his last 2 trips to the Mile High city were not memorable as he allowed Colorado to score 10 earned runs in just 12 innings of work. Aaron Cook has really struggled vs Atlanta as he has a 7.14 ERA in his last 4 starts vs them. Cook will be taking on a Braves squad that is averaging 7.6 rpg through their last 5 games. Colorado has been waiting for their bats to wake up and this may be the game it happens. I see plenty of runs tonight.
ICEMAN
2*Braves
2*Marlins
2*Reds Over
Ted Sevransky
GAME: Florida Marlins @ Washington Nationals
PICK: Over
The Marlins have been one of the few consistent ‘Over’ teams in the first week of MLB action, with a 5-1 mark to the Over in their first six games. The primary culprit has been a spotty pitching staff ‘ both the starters and the bullpen are struggling mightily early on. Marlins starter Andrew Miller has been a part of the problem, not the solution to it. Miller struggled as a Tiger rookie last year, and he was awful in his 2008 debut, failing to make it out of the fifth inning against the Mets. Facing a Nationals lineup that has a better chance than most to hit lefties, we can expect Miller’s troubles to continue here. And let’s not forget that Florida’s bullpen threw 13.1 innings of work in their just concluded three game set in Pittsburgh, not exactly the freshest unit as they take the field tonight.
The Nationals offense was stymied yesterday by Kyle Lohse and the Cardinals bullpen behind him, but that was the exception, not the rule, for Washington so far this season. The Nats had scored 27 runs in their previous five games before yesterday’s shutout, and should have plenty of opportunities against Miller tonight. But don’t expect another outing from Tim Redding like we saw in his first start of the season, seven innings of one hit shutout baseball. The most consistent thing about Redding’s MLB career has been it’s inconsistency from one start to the next, unable to follow up quality performances with similar quality efforts. And the Marlins have been hitting righties (and righties only) to start the season, entering tonight’s game hitting more than 100 points better against right handers than against lefties. With game time temperatures in the upper 50’s, look for the Nats and Marlins to enjoy a high scoring ballgame at the Nationals new stadium, getting up and over the total.
Take the Over