Nick Parsons
Play ON Colorado Avalanche $ line (-) vs Minnesota
The Avalanche are hungry tonight. Not only do they come back home with this series tied at one game apiece, its the added hunger from losing Fridays game on a fluke that fuels the Avs fire here. The Wild scored the overtime winner on Friday off of an Avs defensemans skate. This deflected goal was impossible for Colorado goalie Jose Theodore to defend against and there is every reason to believe that the Avalanche get back on track here. Before the loss on Friday the Avalanche had won seven of their last eight overtime games in playoff action. Not that we expect to again see overtime here but the fact is that the Avs have plenty of veteran players and they certainly have some playoff mettle. The frustrating thing for the Avalanche is that they led Game 1 2-0 going to the third period and they led Game 2 1-0 going to the third period and yet both games went to overtime and the Avs only won one of the games. They know they should be up 2 games to none heading into Mondays home game. Colorado is fully capable of winning big on home ice. They thrive at home while the Wild tend to struggle on the road. Also, the Avalanche do have more playmakers on offense and they can take advantage of a Minnesota defense that is still missing some of its blue line strength due to injuries. Yes, there is a bit of a price to lay here but the Avalanche truly are a bargain in this price range as theyve got home ice and a red-hot goalie in Jose Theodore ready to lead the way tonight. While Niklas Backstrom has also been solid in goal for the Wild, note that the Minnesota netminder has a GAA of 2.83 when on the road compared to the stellar 1.94 GAA that hes produced when on home ice in Minnesota. Once again the Avs take the lead to the third period tonight but, this time, they hang onto it!
NORTHCOAST
3* AZ/SF OVER...Mike Lee's Friends
3* 76ers Will Cover
LT Profits
Houston Rockets @ Utah Jazz u190.5 -110
Both the Houston Rockets and the Utah Jazz are on nice Under runs right now, and we look for that to continue for at least one more game tonight.
The Jazz know from their playoff experience last year that defense wins championships, and after being lax in that area for most of the season, they have turned on the defensive intensity the last four games. They are allowing 81.0 points per game during this stretch with the Under going a perfect 4-0. Furthermore, the Under is 10-1 in Utah?s last 11 games vs. the Southwest Conference including a game in Houston against these Rockets where 186 points were scored.
The Rockets have gone Under in three straight games and they do not appear to be playing with any sense of urgency right now, which is surprising considering they are still playing for playoff positioning. Houston played with no energy last night in a bad 111-94 loss, and with not much separating the mid-level teams of the Western Conference, it could very well be that the Rockets aren?t as concerned about who they face in the opening round of the playoffs as they are about just staying healthy.
Tracy McGrady played just 30 minutes last night, and that led the team. Don?t be surprised if the starters see more limited minutes tonight.
Rockets, Jazz Under 190.5
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers o8.5 -120
The Los Angeles Dodgers used to be known for their pitching, but they actually became a good Over team last season and we look for runs to be scored when they face Zach Duke and the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight.
First of all, this has always been an Over series with the Over going 21-5 in the last 26 head-to-head meetings. This includes a perfect 3-0 here in Los Angeles last season with an average combined total score of 11.3 runs per game. Next, there is the case of the two starting pitchers tonight.
Duke has never been able to recapture the magic of his great rookie season, and he is off to a modest start this year despite his deceptive 2.13 ERA. Truth be told, his high 1.58 WHIP is a better indicator of how he has pitched so far while allowing 18 hits in 12.2 innings. Perhaps most distressing is the fact that he has throw exactly 116 pitches in each of his first two starts (despite one outing being just 5.2 innings), which seems like an abnormally high pitch count for this early in the year.
Now Dodger starter Hiroki Kuroda pitched great in his Major League debut, but he regressed in his second start, allowing four runs of nine hits with two walks to boot in just 5.2 innings. That was also a rather laborious effort, with Kuroda requiring 108 pitches to go those 5.2 frames.
Now granted, the Pirates won?t scare anyone offensively, but the Dodgers are hitting .304 vs. left-handed pitching in the early going, so they could very well score at least six runs by themselves in this game, make the task to go Over a little easier.
Pirates, Dodgers Over 8.5 -120
JB's Computer plays
7:05 p.m. Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers
(R) Nick Blackburn (0-1) vs. (R) Jeremy Bonderman (1-1 Detroit Tigers - 150
810 p.m. Oakland Athletics at Chicago White Sox
(L) Greg Smith (0-0) vs. (L) Mark Buehrle (1-0) Chicago White Sox - 150
Gina
Chicago Bulls (31-49) at Milwaukee Bucks (26-54)
The struggling Bucks have lost six straight and nine of its last 11 games at home. Go with the Bulls tonight at the Bradley Center. Chicago has won six of the last seven meetings, including the last two battles and the home team in this series has won seven of the last nine meetings.
Chicago Bulls
Chicago Bulls +3
San Antonio Spurs -4
SPORTS MONITOR
MATCHUP: Miami Heat (14-66) at Toronto Raptors (40-40)
THE LINE:
The Raptors are -17 and the total is 183 points
TRENDS: The Heat have covered five of their last seven on the road.Toronto has covered just seven of their last 24 games. Torontohas covered the last five in this series.
GAME SUMMARY: The Toronto Raptors were unable to take advantage of playinga team with nothing to play for their last time out, and missed out on a chance to take sole possession of sixth place in the Eastern Conference. They can't afford to do that again Monday when they host a team with even less direction.
SPORTS MONITOR PREDICTION: Miami and Toronto over the total
Larry Ness
GAME: Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Over
REASON FOR PICK: Wandy Rodriguez posted a home ERA of 2.94 in 2007 with the Astros going 11-4 in his home starts, while posting a 6.37 ERA in 16 road starts (Houston went 5-11). However, he's got nothing on the Angels' Ervin Santana, who has had a similar home/away dichotomy for three year running. Heading into this season, the Angels were 31-15 in his home starts but 14-26 in his road starts, where Santana's ERA is over 7.00! However, he's "messing with us a little' so far in '08, winning on the road in his first outing of the year and then losing at home. That being said, I'm sticking with his three-year record. It's also important to note that he's struggled with the Rangers in his short acreer, going 4-4 with a 6.75 ERA in 10 starts (Angels are 5-5), which includes a horrific 8.92 ERA in seven starts at Arlington! Opposing Santana is Jason Jennings, who has never come close to duplicating his rookie season of 2002, when he went 16-8 for the Rockies. He's posted five consecutive losing season since his rookie-of-thee-year campaign, hitting "rock bottom" with the Astros last season, going 2-9 with a 6.45 ERA in 19 appearances (18 starts). Houston was an abysmal 3-15 in those 18 starts and one can only wonder why the Rangers were interested in him this year? He's opened with two sad starts, allowing five hits and four ERs (five innings) in his first start at Seattle and then allowing seven hits and four ERs (4.2 innings) at home vs Baltimore. Obviously, his 7.45 ERA is a concern, but with six walks and just two strikeouts through two starts, he's not fooling anyone, either. The posted total is high (it SHOULD be) but I'm still going over.
TED SEVRANSKY
GAME: San Antonio Spurs @ Sacramento Kings
PICK: Sacramento Kings
REASON FOR PICK: Sacramento continues to play stellar basketball down the stretch despite a serious run of injuries, pulling off the outright upset win over New Orleans yesterday. The Kings have now won six of their last eight games overall, and eight of their last ten at Arco Arena. Theyve earned wins over playoff bound squads like the Nuggets, Warriors, Lakers, Rockets and Hornets during that span. Head coach Reggie Theus: Were mucking it up. You cant do anything but smile about it. We havent given up. Our effort (has been) phenomenal. With Ron Artest back in the lineup and Kevin Martin potentially healthy enough to return tonight, dont expect the Kings to lay down here against San Antonio.
The Spurs got blown out against the Lakers yesterday, and there?s little reason to expect San Antonio to bounce back with a stellar showing here on the second night of back-2-backs. The Spurs are just 5-12 ATS playing on the second night of back-2-backs this year. They are in the midst of a 3-7 ATS slide on the highway, and have lost three of their last five overall. Playing without leading scorer Manu Ginobili, the Spurs offense has been nothing short of atrocious. Tim Duncan: We havent played well in about three, four, five games now. Weve just have got to find a way to make some shots. Head coach Greg Popovich: Were better off to be a lower seed with a healthy Manu than a higher seed without a healthy Manu. Come playoff time, well have as good a chance as anybody to do well. Playoff time doesnt begin tonight. Take the Kings
STEPHEN NOVER
GAME: Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns
PICK: Golden State Warriors
REASON FOR PICK: Golden State must win this game to keep alive its chances of making the playoffs. The Suns are at home and rested, having last played on Friday.
That's why the pointspread is where it's at. But what tilts this into a Golden State play is the belief that Suns coach Mike D'Antoni is going to limit the minutes of his starters. Phoenix is just about locked into the No. 6 seed. There are no easy first-round playoff matches in the Western Conference. Shaquille O'Neal and Steve Nash need rest.
Here's what D'Antoni said when asked how he would approach tonight's Golden State game knowing the Warriors must win to keep the Denver Nuggets from clinching the final playoff spot in the West: "This is about the Phoenix Suns," he said. "I'm sorry about anybody else, but I'll do what we've got to do to make sure Saturday we're ready to go (for the playoffs)."
The Warriors have defeated the Suns twice in three meetings. The underdog has covered in six of the past eight times in the series. Even if D'Antoni is throwing a curveball and intends to play his starters major minutes, the Warriors have the talent and motivation to win at Phoenix with their high-energy, top-ranked offense.
The Warriors are having their best season in 14 years. It's a shame if they don't make the playoffs, but that's life in the brutal Western Conference.
FRANK ROSENTHAL
NBA HOOPS
504 RAPTORS-16.5 SB
OVER 183 SB+
510 BUCKS-2.5 SB
511 ROCKETS+10 SB
513 SUNS+5 SB
UNDER 231.5 SB+
515 SPURS-4 SB
MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL
906 TRIBE-125 SB
913 ANGELS-110 SB
918 SEATTLE-115 SB
John Ryan
Game: Boston Celtics at New York Knicks
Prediction: New York Knicks
Reason: Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Knicks. Meaningless game apparently on the service, but the AiS does show a 73% probability that the Knicks will lose this game by 6 or fewer points. However, the Knicks might not have to deal with Boston's biggest threats in this meeting. Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce each played fewer than 25 minutes in Boston's 102-86 win over Milwaukee on Friday night and played just three quarters in a 99-89 win over Atlanta the following night. Pride will also be a factor as this will more than likely be Thomas last home game as coach of the Knicks and the players also will be motivated to impress their new President as well so that too are not let go from the team. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 105-55 for 66% ATS since 2002. Play against favorites that are off an upset win as a road dog and is a tired team playing 8 or more games in 14 days. Despite being a very poor team, the Knicks do rebound from dismal defensive performances. Note that surprisingly the Knicks are 7-0 ATS after a game where they allowed a shooting pct. of 55% or higher this season. Take the Knicks.
Scott Rickenbach
OVER the total in Tampa Bay vs New York Yankees
The Yankees offense seems to be waking up from their early season slumber as they?ve scored 18 runs in their last four games. Sure, that?s not huge progress but, the point is, they are starting to come around at the plate. With the potential for Derek Jeter to come back today, the Yankees lineup could get a lift. However, even if he doesnt come back, we expect the Yanks to do plenty of damage against the Rays Andy Sonnanstine. The young right-hander has surprisingly enjoyed some success against the Yankees in his career. However, hes off to a tough start this season as hes allowed four earned runs in each of his first two starts. Also, Sonnanstine has struggled in his home starts throughout his career! He is just 2-6 with a 6.30 ERA and he?s been hit at a .324 clip in his career outings at Tropicana Field.
Sonnanstines best starts have come on the road and theyve also come during the day. Note that in night starts hes just 3-9 with a 6.35 ERA and hes been hit at a nearly .300 clip in evening outings! Sonnanstine enjoyed success at Yankee Stadium in his one start there last season. However, the Yanks hit him pretty well there earlier this season and they pounded him hard the one time they faced him at The Trop last season in Tampa Bay. Even though the Rays bullpen has been decent this season its still not filled with arms that are going to scare the Yankees hitters by any stretch of the imagination. In other words, look for runs early, often, and throughout todays contest from the Yankees. The key here is that the Yankees will need each and every one of those runs as their own pitching is likely to have issues here!
The Rays bats are coming to life as theyve scored 25 runs in their last four games. They also gave young right-hander Ian Kennedy fits when they faced him at Yankee Stadium earlier this month. Kennedy couldnt get out of the third inning in that game and facing the Rays at Tropicana Field certainly wont help matters for the Yankees hurler tonight. Kennedy has only made four career MLB starts and he?s still got a lot to learn about pitching at this level! That spells trouble against a Rays lineup that has quite a bit of confidence coming into this match-up. Tampa Bay has scored five runs or more in 8 of their 12 games this season and they should get at least that tonight! The Rays are 3-3 at home and theyve averaged nearly 8 runs per game in the three home wins. Another big effort at the plate is on tap in tonight?s home game but the Yankees offense is also likely to hang right with the Rays throughout this game. Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay as a regular selection.
ATS Basketball Lock Club
4 units Philly
ATS Hockey Lock Club
4 units Red Wings
Nelly
Minnesota (Blackburn) + over Detroit (Bonderman)
Nick Blackburn has made two solid starts for the Twins and he has actually been the best statistical pitcher for Minnesota in the early going. The Tigers continue to be a team to fade, especially at this price. Detroit is 2-10 and the offense is hitting .235 while averaging less than three runs scored per game. Detroit has been shutout in the last two games and Detroit is 1-8 as a favorite this season, easily the worst money team in baseball. The Twins have been better than most expected so far this season and the offense is coming along even with a key player Michael Cuddyer injured early in the year. Minnesota went 5-4 in Detroit last season and the Twins have an enormous advantage in the bullpen. Jeremy Bonderman continues to put a lot of runners on base and the Tigers will struggle against an unfamiliar pitcher.
Tony Karpinski
Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns
Play: Phoenix Suns
Golden State folded the other night against Denver in a must win situation. They were barely able to hold off the Clippers in their last game. With Denver?s dominating performance against Houston yesterday, they are well on their way to the last playoff spot in the Western Conference. The home team has won every game in this series over the last two years and tonight will be no different. Golden State does not have an answer for Shaq on the inside. Amare Stoudemire has been dominant on offense since Shaq?s arrival, as he is free to roam away from the paint. I look for the Warriors to fold in this game since they don?t have much of a chance to make the playoffs. Phoenix will get out to an early lead and Golden State will give up as the game goes on.