SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
N.Y. Mets (10-7) at Chicago Cubs (12-6)
Two red-hot teams get together for a brief two-game set at Wrigley Field in Chicago, with the Mets’ John Maine (1-1, 3.78 ERA) set to oppose Cubs ace Carlos Zambrano (2-1, 3.04) in tonight’s opener.
The Mets had a five-game winning streak snapped in Sunday night’s 5-4 loss in Philadelphia. Despite the setback, New York has still won eight of its last 11. Meanwhile, the Cubs are on a 6-1 run and come into this one off a three-game home sweep of the Pirates, capped by Sunday’s 13-6 rout. Chicago scored 29 runs in the three-game set and has tallied nine runs or more in four of its last six victories.
New York won five of seven against the Cubs last season and is 12-7 in this rivalry dating back to the 2005 campaign.
After a rough opening outing in Atlanta back on April 5, Maine has delivered two straight outstanding performances, giving up a combined three runs on 10 hits in 12 2/3 innings in victories over the Phillies and Nationals. However, the right-hander was roughed up by the Cubs twice last season, including a forgettable August start at Wrigley that saw him allow six runs on four hits and three walks in just 2 2/3 innings of a 6-2 loss. He’s 0-2 with a 5.17 ERA in four career appearances (three starts) against Chicago.
Both of Zambrano’s wins have come at Wrigley, including Wednesday’s 12-3 victory over the Reds when he allowed two runs on eight hits in seven innings. In his first start of the season against the Astros at home, he gave up two runs on seven hits in seven innings of a 3-2 win.
Zambrano dominated the Mets twice last season, giving up a total of two runs on eight hits in 13 innings of work. For his career, the big right-hander is 3-1 with a 3.30 ERA against New York.
New York is on runs of 7-4 on the road, 29-14 against the N.L. Central, 12-2 when Maine starts a series opener and 15-7 when he pitches on the highway. Meanwhile the Cubs are on runs of 7-1 at home and 7-2 against a right-handed starter, but they are just 1-6 in their last seven against the N.L. East, 2-6 in the last eight when Zambrano opens a series and 0-7 when Zambrano starts at Wrigley against a team with a winning mark.
The over 10-1-1 in the past 12 head-to-head meetings overall, 4-0-1 in the last five series clashes in Chicago and 4-0 in Zambrano’s last four starts versus the Mets. The over is also 6-1 in the Cubs’ last seven overall, 9-2 in Zambrano’s last 11 outings against N.L. East competition, 11-4 in the Mets last 15 on the highway, 15-6-1 in the Mets’ last 22 against the N.L. Central and 14-7-1 in the Mets’ last 22 on the road against a right-handed starter.
On the flip side, the under is 5-1 in the New York’s last six overall and 19-7 in Zambrano’s last 27 starts overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO CUBS and OVER
St. Louis (12-7) at Milwaukee (11-7)
The Brewers return home after a nine-game road trip and send Carlos Villanueva (1-2, 6.19) to the hill to take on the Cardinals and Adam Wainwright (2-1, 2.78) in the rematch of a pitching matchup that occurred last week in St. Louis.
Milwaukee went 5-4 on its just-concluded road trip, but dropped Sunday’s game in heartbreaking fashion, falling 4-3 in Cincinnati. The Brewers gave up three runs in the bottom of the 10th after scoring two in the top half of the inning to break a 1-1 tie. The loss snapped a three-game win streak for the Brewers.
The Cardinals went just 3-3 in their just-concluded six-game homestand, capped by Sunday’s 8-2 loss to the Giants. That defeat came on the heels of Saturday’s 3-0 setback to San Francisco, giving Tony LaRussa’s squad its first two-game losing skid of the season.
These two teams played a three-game set last week in St. Louis, with the Cardinals taking two of three, giving them a 9-3 edge in head-to-head meetings going back to last season.
Villanueva got rocked in St. Louis on Wednesday, giving up five runs on eight hits in 4 2/3 innings in a 5-4 loss. In his two home starts, however, Villanueva has allowed six runs on 15 hits in 11 1/3 innings (4.76 ERA), beating the Giants 13-4 but losing to the Reds 4-1. In his lone start against St. Louis last season, the right-hander allowed three runs on five hits in six innings of a 7-3 home defeat.
Wainwright has been tough in two of his three outings, including Wednesday when he beat Villanueva and the Brewers, giving up two runs (one earned) on five hits in 7 2/3 innings. In his lone road start, however, the righty allowed four runs on eight hits in seven innings of a 5-1 loss in San Francisco.
For his career, Wainwright is 2-1 with a 1.88 ERA versus the Brewers in 10 appearances (three starts).
The Cardinals are on runs of 17-7 overall, 8-2 against the N.L. Central, 11-5 against a right-handed starter and 8-3 when Wainwright is as an underdog. Meanwhile the Brewers are on streaks of 40-18 at home against teams with a winning road mark, 6-2 at Miller Park and 5-2 when Villanueva starts at home.
The over is 7-3 in the last 10 series clashes, including 5-1 in the last six meetings at Miller Park. The over is also 4-1 in the Cards’ last five on the road, 6-2 in their last eight series openers, 4-1 in Wainwright’s last five outings, 20-9-1 for Milwaukee at home and 8-3-1 for the Brew Crew as a home chalk. However, the under is 5-1 in the Brewers’ last six overall and 7-3 in Villanueva’s 10 overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS
NBA PLAYOFFS
(5) Washington (43-40, 46-37 ATS) at (4) Cleveland (46-37, 38-45 ATS)
The Wizards try to bounce back from Saturday’s tough Game 1 loss when they take on the Cavaliers in Game 2 of their best-of-7 Eastern Conference playoff series inside the Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland.
LeBron James & Co. outscored Washington 28-17 in the fourth quarter Saturday and escaped with a 93-86 win, cashing as four-point home favorites. James had 32 points and Zydrunas Ilgauskas had 22 points and 11 boards to lead the charge for Cleveland, which is still only 6-7 in its last 13 games (4-9 ATS).
The Cavs have now beaten the Wizards seven straight times in the playoffs over the last three postseasons (5-2 ATS), including a 4-0 sweep in last year’s first round (3-1 ATS). In 2006, the Cavs won in six games, going 3-3 ATS.
Including Saturday’s contest, Cleveland is now 3-2 SU and ATS against Washington this year, with the home team winning all five contests (3-2 ATS). Even though the Cavs cashed in Game 1, the road team is still 5-3 ATS in the last eight clashes overall.
The Wizards are on a 14-7 ATS run as an underdog and have additional positive ATS trends of 8-4 as a road pup of less than five points and 11-6 as a road ‘dog of any price. But they are 1-5 ATS in their last six conference quarterfinal games (all against Cleveland) and 1-5 ATS in their last six after a SU loss.
The Cavaliers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight as a playoff favorite, but otherwise they are mired in several ATS funks, including 4-8 against the Eastern Conference, 2-4 as a chalk, 2-4 against the Southeast Division, 2-5 as a home chalk, 2-6 overall at home and 1-5 against teams with a winning record.
For Washington, the over is on streaks of 8-4 overall, 4-1 after a SU loss, 21-8 against the East and 5-3 in the playoffs (all against Cleveland), but the under is 12-5 in the Wizards’ last 17 on the highway and 11-4 in their last 15 as an underdog. For Cleveland, the under is on streaks of 7-0 overall, 17-5 at home and 12-2 as a home favorite. Finally, with Game 1 staying well below the total, the under is now 15-6 in the last 21 series meetings (playoffs included) at Quicken Loans Arena.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(4) Utah (55-28, 47-36 ATS) at (5) Houston (55-28, 47-34-2 ATS)
The Jazz will try to make it a two-game road sweep when they meet the Rockets for Game 2 of their best-of-7 Western Conference opening-round series inside the Toyota Center.
Utah shot better than 52 percent from the floor and got balanced scoring from Andrei Kirilenko (21 points), Deron Williams (20 points and 10 assists) and Carlos Boozer (20 points and 16 rebounds) en route to Saturday’s 93-82 win as a one-point ‘dog, The Jazz, who are on a 10-3 SU and ATS run, weren’t too shabby defensively either, limiting the Rockets to 36.7 percent shooting, including 27.3 from beyond the 3-point line.
Jerry Sloan’s club has now beaten Houston in three straight playoff games (3-0 ATS) going back to last season’s seven-game first-round series. The Jazz took Game 7 in that one on the Rockets’ home court, the only win for a road team in last year’s series. Utah is on an 8-1 overall ATS run against Houston.
Utah is on ATS streaks of 24-8 against the Western Conference, 7-1 against the Southwest Division, 5-1 as an underdog (all on the road), 37-16-1 against winning teams and 9-0 on Mondays.
Houston is just 1-3 SU and ATS in its last four overall, and the straight-up winner is 11-0 ATS in the team’s last 11 contests. Aside from their current 0-6 ATS nosedive in the playoffs, the Rockets are on myriad positive pointspread streaks, including 36-18-1 overall, 16-6-1 at home, 21-6-1 as a favorite and 15-5-1 as a home chalk.
For Utah, the over is on streaks of 7-3 as a playoff underdog, 42-22 as a road pup of less than five points, but the under is 10-3-1 in the team’s last 14 against the Southwest Division and 14-6 in its last 20 conference quarterfinal playoff contests.
For Houston, the under is on a bevy of runs, including 5-0 at home, 10-2 against the Northwest Division, 5-1 as a home chalk of any price and 9-3 as a home favorite of less than five points.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Jimmy The Moose
Game: Florida Marlins at Pittsburgh Pirates
Prediction: Florida Marlins
Reason: The Marlins have won 4 of their last 6 games while the Pirates have lost 5 staright. Florida send Hendrickson, 3-1 with an ERA of 3.97, to the mound tonight. The Marlins are 7-3 in their last 10 games as a dog. Pittsburgh is 3-8 in their last 11 home games. Morris will be on the mound tonight and he's been roughed up this season. Morris is 0-2 with an ERA of 7.02 and the Pirates have lost his 3 starts this season. Pittsburgh is 0-6 in their last 6 starts vs. a left-handed starter. Florida has won 2 of 3 meetings with Pittsburgh this season and will take tonight's. Play on the Marlins.
James Patrick Sports
Cardinals vs. Brewers
St. Louis – Milwaukee OVER the TOTAL as these teams have seen their run production at Miller Park rise 2.5 runs per game the past two seasons to 10.4 rpg. It’s Miller time as Budweiser takes on Miller in the Brew Capital.
Dodgers vs. Reds
Brad Penny takes his impressive career record of 6-2 with a 1.38 ERA to the mound in the Queen City to take on the rival Reds and LA holds a 6-3 advantage in this park. With their most effective pitcher going for Joe Torre we’ll back the Dodger Blue in this game.
5* Grand Slam Los Angeles Dodgers
Nationals vs. Braves
Atlanta holds a healthy 18-10 record the past few years in Turner Field against the young Nationals but the impressive stat in this match-up is Tim Hudson’s career record against Washington of 5-1 with a 1.30 ERA. Don’t even think about bucking those numbers.
3* Atlanta Braves
VEGAS SPORTS PICS
NBA
Utah Jazz + 1 over (at) Houston Rockets
Utah is 5-1 last 6 playoff games vs. Houston dating back to last April off winning 93-82 in game one of this series. Rockets were without starting guard Alston (day-to-day) and starting center Ming. (out)
MLB
Toronto (Marcum) - 125* over Detroit (Galarraga)
Marcum is 2-0 in three starts allowing sixs runs on 13 hits over 21 innings. Toronto beat Detroit 5-3 Sunday despite Jay's starter Burnett issuing a season high six walks in five innings.
Atlanta (Hudson) - 1.5 (+100**) over Washington (Chico)
Home standing Atlanta enters on a four game win streak, by a combined 24-3.
Chicago Cubs (Zambrano) - 125** over NY Mets (Maine)
Cubs are 6-1 last seven games averaging 8.3 runs. They're 3-1 last four Zambrano starts vs. the Mets. New York lost both Maine starts vs. Chicago last season.
VEGAS EXPERTS TIP OF THE DAY
Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays
The Tigers are a ridiculous 0-10 in day games and 3-12 vs. right-handed starters. Knowing that, they will not be happy to be informed that Monday’s series finale with Toronto has a 12:35 local time start with the Blue Jays’ Shaun Marcum, a righty, toeing the rubber. Toronto has outscored its opponents, 19-9, in Marcum’s three starts this season.
Play on: Toronto
Bob Akmens
Philadelphia Phillies @ Colorado Rockies Over 11.0
This play is the result of a successful computer model that has allowed Bob Akmens Sports to finish in first-place in 154 different categories of documented monitored handicapping contests since 1978.
The computer models I’ve developed for each sport look at the most-predictive variables that go into the winning and losing of games.
Several interesting factors in today’s play are as follows (ATS = against-the-spread) –
The PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES go OVER when:Kyle Kendrick starts on the road: 7-3 OVER last 10
The COLORADO ROCKIES go OVER when:Mark Redman starts at home: 8-2 OVER last 10
Go with OVER 11 RUNS in this 8:35 PM ET matchup
Matt Fargo
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: San Francisco Giants
San Francisco took the final two games in St. Louis to close out that series and those wins are big heading home to face the team with the best record in baseball. The Giants are now 7-5 over their last 12 games after starting the season a disappointing 1-6. This team was expected to finish in the basement in the National League West and that could very well still come true but we need to back them when they are playing well and when the lines are not adjusted to reflect that.
As mentioned, the Diamondbacks possess the best record in baseball but it had its four-game winning streak snapped yesterday and that is a sign to play against them now. They are doing the small things to win games and both pitching and hitting are getting the jobs done. There obviously is not a whole lot of bad to say about this team but Arizona has lost value fast and it has gotten to the point of being overvalued and that is where we take advantage.
Brandon Webb is not on the mound tonight but it sure looks like a Brandon Webb price. Micah Owings has started the season hot and that is why this price is what it is. He has tossed three straight quality outings to begin the year and that is where I strike. He is not a top tiered pitcher in this league and after three consecutive quality starts, it is the play against sign. Owings had a very rough spring with his command and while spring does not mean much, it does show that problems have been there.
Kevin Correia counters for the Giants and while he is coming off a rough outing against Arizona in his last start, he says that he felt he was much better than the results. He has gone at least six innings in each of his three starts and opponents are hitting just .225 against him while his WHIP is at a solid 1.22. I take both of those at a higher rank than ERA as he simply has not allowed a lot of baserunners. Correia has never won against Arizona but he has a solid 3.95 ERA in 11 games including three starts. Play San Francisco Giants 1.5 Units
Tom Freese
St. Louis at Milwaukee
St. Louis starter Adam Wainwright is in excellent KW form with a 5 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio in his last 3 starts. The Cardinals are 8-3 in the last 11 starts made by Wainwright and they are 11-4 their last 15 games vs. righties. Milwaukee starter Carlos Villanueva has allowed 9 runs in 10.2 innings in his last two starts. The Brewers are 3-9 their last 12 games vs. the Cardinals. PLAY ON ST LOUIS - (Wainwright vs. Villanueva)
Dave Cokin
Mets @ Cubs
Play: Cubs -130
Don't look for a great deal of offense from the Mets tonight as they open a set at Wrigley against the Cubs. The likely NY starters are under .250 against Carlos Zambrano and there's been very little power. The Maine vs. Cubs starters sample is pretty small, but it's certainly not very impressive. Favorable spot for the Cubs, so they're my free opinion for Monday.
Stephen Nover
San Diego Padres @ Houston Astros
PICK: Houston Astros
REASON FOR PICK: Is Roy Oswalt back to his previous All-Star form? I'm willing to lay this price to find out based on Oswalt's home history and the Astros getting back second baseman Kaz Matsui.
Oswalt was shelled during his first three starts this season, yielding 16 earned runs in 16 innings. But he came back strong in his last outing, allowing one run in seven innings during a 2-1 victory against the Phillies.
Oswalt has won 77 percent of his decisions at home the past five years. During the past five seasons, Oswalt's home ERA has been 1.91, 2.72, 2.87, 3.33 and 2.45.
The Padres rank among the four worst teams in many of the major offensive categories, including runs scored, batting average and home runs. Until scoring nine runs on Sunday against Randy Johnson and the Diamonds, they had tallied just six runs in their previous four games.
Padres starter Justin Germano does not worry me. The Astros are off a huge come-from-behind victory at Minute Maid Park against Colorado that restored a lot of confidence. Matsui is back from missing 16 games providing spark and a steal threat.
San Diego has dropped eight of its last 11 away contests. The Astros have defeated the Padres in eight of the last 10 meetings when Oswalt has taken the mound.
Sportsbettingstats
New York Mets (10-7) at Chicago Cubs (21-6)
The Mets come into this game after losing to the Philadelphia Phillies 5-4, while the Cubs crushed the Pittsburgh Pirates 13-6. This is a big early season series and one that may be a preview of the 2008 playoffs. The Cubbies are leading the NL Central and the Mets are in 2nd place, only .5 games out, in the NL East. Taking the mound for the Mets is John Maine (1-1 3.78 ERA), who in his last outing went 6 innings giving up 2 earned runs and got the win. Maine is having a decent season so far and will have to pitch a good game against a tough Cub lineup. In the Mets loss to the Phillies in their last game they scored 4 runs on 9 hits and left 9 men on base. On defense the Mets gave up 5 runs off 12 hits to the Phillies. Taking the mound for the Cubs is Carlos Zambrano (2-1 3.04 ERA), who in his last outing went 7 innings and gave up only 2 earned runs getting the win. Zambrano has started the season well and already has 23 strikeouts for the year. In the Cubs win over the Pirates in their last game they scored 13 runs on 18 hits and left 13 men on base. Aramis Ramirez went deep for his 4th homer for the Cubs. On defense the Cubs gave up 6 runs off 9 hits and allowed 2 home runs to the Pirates.
Staff Pick: Both teams are hot right now, as the Mets have gone 7-3 for their last 10 games winning 3 in a row and the Cubs have also gone 7-3 in their last 10 games and have won 3 in a row. The Cubs have the edge in this game being at home and having their Ace on the mound. The Cubs Derek Lee is leading the NL in home runs with 7 and the Mets David Wright is leading the NL in RBI's with 19. The Cubs offense is clicking in the early part of the season, as they have the highest team batting average (.282) and have scored the 2nd most runs (111) in the National League. The top of the lineup for the Cubs is off to a torrid start, as their first 3 hitters are all batting above .330. John Maine will have to pitch a stellar game to tame the hot bats of the Cubbies. The Cubs offense is on fire, they have their Ace on the mound, and the game is at Wrigley Field. You add all those things together and it adds up to a Cubs win. Zambrano should shut down the Mets offense and the Cubbies offense should light up Maine, who is a bottom rotation guy for the Mets. Look for the Cubs to win comfortably in this game.
Cubs 8 Mets 3
DCI Pro Hockey
Playoffs: 14-10 (.583)
Season: 428-333 (.562)
Eastern Conference Quarterfinals
Game 7, best-of-7
MONTREAL 3, Boston 2
Game 6, best-of-7
Washington vs. PHILADELPHIA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
GATOR REPORT
MLB 70% Super Situations (MLB Record 3-2 +90 units)
Our MLB 70% Super Situations could be either sides and/or totals from the MLB Card for that particular day.
MLB Monday: Play Over MLB teams against the total with a NL team averaging =5.00, with a starting pitcher who gives up 7 or more hits per start.42-15 Over since 1997 (73.7%) PLAY: San Diego / Houston OVER 8.5 (-120)
WINNING SPORTS
Selection: Los Angeles Dodgers -140
Reason: Put us down on the Los Angeles Dodgers (-140) for our Free MLB Selection on Monday. Today the Los Angeles Dodgers will be on the road as they take on the Cincinnati Reds. We will side with the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Los Angeles Dodgers hold a huge advantage on the pitching mound today. The Los Angeles Dodgers will send to the mound starting pitcher Brad Penny. Brad Penny has been solid this season which is shown by his 2.96 ERA. We see Brad Penny having another solid start tonight. On the other hand, the Cincinnati Reds will send to the mound Josh Fogg. Josh Fogg has been terrible so far this season. In fact, Josh Fogg has a 13.09 ERA on the season. To say the least, the Los Angeles Dodgers should be able to score many runs off Josh Fogg tonight. In addition, the Los Angeles Dodgers have proven they are much better then the Cincinnati Reds. In fact, the Los Angeles Dodgers are 10-2 in their last 12 meetings against the Cincinnati Reds. Take the Los Angeles Dodgers!
JIM FEIST
PHI Phillies @ COL Rockies
Take "Under"
The weather isn't usually conducive to hitting early in the season. For this game, it's going to be muggy and in the 40s in Denver. Notice the Rockies are averaging 3.8 runs per game at Coors Field this season, starting 4-2 under the total. A pair of pitchers who throw strikes are on the hill. Veteran Marc Redman has 6 walks in 15 innings, while Philadelphia's Kyle Kendrick is off his best game, walking one in 7 innings. Don't look for an offensive show in frigid Denver. Play the Phillies/Rockies under the total
Karl Garrett
Washington at CLEVELAND -1'
Another NBA total play tonight, as the G-Man will look for the Wizards-Cavaliers to once again stay UNDER the total. On Saturday these teams went through long periods without finding a field goal, and I expect them to struggle once again in finding easy baskets.
The UNDER has been the play in this series in 15 of the last 21 games played at the Quicken Loans Arena, and the UNDER has come through in 17 of Cleveland's last 22 home games overall.
With Saturday's UNDER, the Wizards have now been UNDER the posted price in their last pair of games, and 3 of their last 5, while the Cavs have now been UNDER in 7 in a row dating back to the regular season.
Defenses looking too tough once again in this one for the G-Man to back the OVER.
Play Game 2 LOW.
2* UNDER