SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(6) Toronto (42-44, 41-44-1 ATS) at (3) Orlando (55-31, 52-31-3 ATS)
The Magic try to close out their first-round best-of-7 series against the Raptors tonight when the two meet for Game 5 inside Amway Arena in Orlando.
Orlando put a stranglehold on the series with Saturday’s 106-94 victory north of the border, cashing as a 2½-point underdog. The Magic used a 33-point fourth quarter to seal the victory and had five players score in double digits, led by Rashard Lewis’ 27 points and 13 rebounds. Dwight Howard came up just short of a triple-double with 19 points, 16 rebounds and eight blocked shots.
The Magic have won six of their last seven overall (5-2 ATS) and five of their last seven against the Raptors, including a 14-point home win in Game 1 and a one-point home victory in Game 2. Toronto is just 4-8 SU and ATS in its last 12 overall, but despite the Game 4 result, the Raptors are still on a 10-4 ATS run against Orlando, including 5-2 ATS inside Amway Arena.
Stan Van Gundy’s Magic are on a plethora of positive pointspread streaks, including 6-2 against the Eastern Conference, 11-5 on one days’ rest, 11-3-1 at home against a team with a losing road mark, 12-5-2 overall at home and 9-4-1 on Mondays.
The Raptors are 38-17-2 ATS in their last 57 against Southeast Division opponents and 4-1 ATS in their last five as playoff underdogs of five to 10½ points. However, the ATS trends are all negative from there, including 9-21 overall, 3-9 against teams with a winning SU mark, 4-8 against the East, 5-16 on one days’ rest, 6-18 as an underdog, 2-10 on the road and 1-9 as a road ‘dog.
The under was the play in both games in Toronto, but the over is 5-3 in the last eight between these two, with the first two games of this series in Orlando hurdling the posted price. In addition, the over is 7-3 in Orlando’s last 10 first-round playoff games, 4-2 in Toronto’s last six first-round contests and 5-3 in the Raptors’ last eight against winning teams.
Conversely, the under is 10-3 in the Magic’s last 13 overall and 9-3 in their last 12 against the Eastern Conference. The under is also 8-2-1 in the Raptors’ last 11 overall and 27-9 in their last 36 when they tip-off on Mondays.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(1) Boston (68-17, 54-29-2 ATS) at (8) Atlanta (38-47, 38-46-1 ATS)
The Hawks showed they would not go quietly with a Game 3 victory over the Celtics and now try to draw even with the conference’s top seed when the two meet for Game 4 at Philips Arena in Atlanta.
Josh Smith put on a show Saturday, scoring 27 points to lead Atlanta to the 102-93 win as an eight-point home ‘dog. The Hawks won the rebounding battle 43-35 led by rookie Al Horford’s 14 boards to go with 17 points.
While the victory snapped Boston’s six-game SU and ATS winning streak, Doc Rivers’ Celtics have still won 13 of their last 15 games going back to the regular season, going 12-3 ATS.
The Hawks, who are in the postseason for the first time since 1999, snapped a five-game losing skid with Saturday’s win, but have still lost seven of their last 10, both SU and ATS. Also, the winner has cashed in each of the team’s last 12 games.
Boston is now 5-1 against Atlanta this year (4-2 ATS), with all five wins coming by double digits. Still, the underdog is 8-5 ATS in the last 13 clashes, and the home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight.
Saturday’s upset loss aside, the Celtics are still on ATS runs of 21-6 overall, 16-6 as a favorite, 48-20-1 on the highway, 5-2 against the Southeast Division, 7-3 as a road chalk, 7-0 when playing on a days’ rest, 5-1 on Mondays and 4-1 following a SU loss. Meanwhile, the Hawks remain on ATS slides of 2-5 at home, 1-4 as an underdog, 1-5 overall, 1-4 when playing on a days’ rest and 1-5 against the Eastern Conference.
The first five meetings between these teams this season stayed under the posted price, but Saturday’s game soared over the total, and the over is now 10-4 in the last 14 clashes between these two in Atlanta. Also, for the Hawks, the over is on streaks of 10-5 overall, 9-5 against the Eastern Conference, 7-4 against the Atlantic Division and 7-1 at home.
On the flip side, Atlanta has stayed under the total in four of its last six against the Atlantic Division, and the under is 9-4 in the Celtics’ last 13 overall, 12-4 in the Celtics’ last 16 against the Eastern Conference and 6-2 in the Celtics’ last eight versus the Southeast Division.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and UNDER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(1) L.A. Lakers (60-25, 50-34-1 ATS) at (8) Denver (50-35, 44-41 ATS)
The Lakers will try to put the finishing touches on the Nuggets in Game 4 of their best-of-7 first-round series inside the Pepsi Center in Denver.
Los Angeles took a commanding 3-0 lead with Saturday’s 102-84 win and easy cover as a 1½-point underdog. The Lakers’ defense held Denver to 37.2 percent shooting and 5-of-20 from beyond the 3-point line. Kobe Bryant led the charge for Los Angeles with 22 points, seven rebounds and eight assists.
Saturday’s win improved the Lakers to 6-0 SU and ATS against Denver this season and 9-2 ATS in the last 11 overall. Also, Phil Jackson’s squad is 5-1 ATS in its last six visits to the Pepsi Center, although the home team is still on a 14-6 ATS roll in this rivalry.
The Lakers are on an 11-1 SU surge dating to the regular season, and they have covered the number in four straight after going 3-5 ATS in their previous eight. Meanwhile, Denver, which had to win four of its last five regular-season games to get into the playoffs for the fifth straight year, has now dropped seven consecutive playoff games both SU and ATS (all as an underdog) going back to last year’s opening-round, five-game loss to the eventual champion Spurs.
Los Angeles is on ATS streaks 20-7-1 on the highway, 21-9 following an ATS win, 6-1 on Mondays, 9-3 as a road favorite and 5-1 in conference quarterfinal matchups. Meanwhile, the Nuggets are still on positive pointspread runs of 19-9 following a SU defeat, 8-4 at home, 9-3 following a SU loss and 4-2 at home against teams with a winning road mark, but Denver is just 2-12 ATS in its last 14 as a playoff underdog and 3-14 ATS in its last 17 conference quarterfinal games.
The last two games of this series have stayed under the total and four of the last five between these two have remained low. The under is also 12-5 in the Lakers’ last 17 Monday tip-offs and 5-2 in their last seven on the highway.
Also, the under is 7-1 in the Nuggets’ last eight overall, 14-3 in their last 17 as a playoff underdog and 18-4 in their last 22 conference quarterfinal contests. However, Denver has still topped the total in 15 of its last 22 home games and 10 of its last 14 Mondays.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (13-13) at Cleveland (12-13)
The Yankees send veteran Mike Mussina (2-3, 4.94 ERA) to the hill at Progressive Field in Cleveland to wrap up this four-game set with the Indians, who are scheduled to hand the ball to lefty Aaron Laffey (0-0, 0.00).
New York snapped a three-game losing streak with Sunday’s 1-0 victory but is still just 4-5 on its current 10-game road trip that ends tonight. The Yankees are on runs of 7-3 against left-handed starters and 36-17 on Mondays, but just 7-21 in their last 28 on the road against southpaws.
Cleveland had a five-game winning streak halted in Sunday’s shutout loss, but is still on positive streaks of 25-11 at home, 8-2 on Mondays and 15-8 at home against right-handed starters.
Despite Sunday’s win, New York is still just 2-5 in the last seven meetings with the Indians dating back to last year’s A.L. Divisional Playoffs. The Yankees had been on an 8-0 run against Cleveland prior to last October, when they got bounced 3-1 in the best-of-5 playoffs.
Mussina is 1-1 on the road with a 4.26 ERA in two road starts this season and delivered a gem his last time out in Chicago, holding the White Sox to two runs on four hits in seven innings of a 6-4 victory. In his last two trips to Cleveland he has held the Indians to five runs on 13 hits in 13 2/3 innings (3.29 ERA) and the Yankees won both by scores of 11-2 and 11-3. Furthermore, New York is 6-3 in Mussina’s last nine starts against the Tribe, and he’s held them to three runs or less in seven of those nine.
Laffey is making his first start of the season – and his first career start against the Yankees – after a successful two-month stint last August and September in the Indians’ rotation. He finished 4-2 with a 4.56 ERA in his nine starts, seven of which Cleveland won. In five of those nine outings, Laffey held the opposition to three runs or less, including allowing just a single earned run in three of his last four outings.
The under is 13-5 in New York’s last 18 road games, 18-8 in its last 26 overall and 8-3-1 in Mussina’s last 12 starts on Monday. However the over is on streaks of 11-4 in Mussina starts overall, 5-2 when Mussina starts on the road and 4-0-1 when he starts in Cleveland.
The under is 7-2 in the Indians’ last nine overall, 4-0 in Laffey’s last four starts and 5-1 in their last six when hosting the Bronx Bombers (2-1 in this weekend’s series).
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
VEGAS EXPERTS TIP OF THE DAY
Houston Astros at Arizona Diamondbacks
Coming off his first loss of the season, Arizona's Dan Haren returns home where he is 3-0 with a 0.95 ERA in three starts. He's opposed by Houston's Chris Sampson, who has an ERA of 8.48 in his last three starts. It doesn't help his cause that the Astros offense only averages 3.7 runs/game away from home. The Diamondbacks are 9-2 at home this season.
Play on: Arizona
Bob Akmens
Los Angeles Lakers @ Denver Nuggets Under 227.5
This play is the result of a successful computer model that has allowed Bob Akmens Sports to finish in first-place in 162 different categories of documented monitored handicapping contests since 1978.
The computer models I’ve developed for each sport look at the most-predictive variables that go into the winning and losing of games.
Several interesting factors in today’s play are as follows (ATS = against-the-spread) –
The LOS ANGELES LAKERS go UNDER when:
They play on the road: 24-17 UNDER last 41
The total in a road game is 210 or greater: 20-11 UNDER last 31
The DENVER NUGGETS go UNDER when:
They’re getting between 3.5-6 points at home: 5-2 UNDER last 7
They play in the 1st round of the playoffs: 12-1 UNDER last 13
They trail in a playoff series: 8-0 UNDER last 8
Go with UNDER 227.5 in this 10:30 PM ET matchup
Tony Karpinski
Montreal Canadiens vs. Philadelphia Flyers
Play: Under
Goalie Biron was sensational in Philadelphia's 4-2 win over Montreal in Game 2 with 34 saves, and evened the series at 1-1. He posted a shutout for his first playoff victory in Game 2 of the first-round series win against Washington. Then he had 39 saves in Philadelphia's Game 7 overtime victory against the Capitals that ended his winless mark this season in the second of back-to-back games. Montreal played an awful game on defense in Game 2. They usually tighten the strings a lot in their next game. Play Under 5.5
Great Lakes Sports
Boston at Atlanta
Play on: Boston Celtics
The Boston Celtics are an amazing 55-29 ATS this year including 6-1 ATS in their last seven games. The Boston Celtics is also 28-14 ATS when playing on the road this year, and 44-25 ATS in the role as a favorite this year. We look for the Boston Celtics to roll over the Atlanta Hawks tonight for the road ATS Win & cover.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: St. Louis w/Wellemeyer vs Arroyo
Note: Cardinals open a three game set with the Reds in St. Louis behind the steady serves of Todd Wellemeyer knowing they are 18-7 at home against Cincinnati, including wins in 6 of the last 7 as a host. With Bronson Arroyo in struggling current form and just 3-9 in his career team starts against the Red Birds, including 1-4 at Busch Stadium, we'll back Wellemeyer and the Cardinals here tonight.
DUNKEL
MLB
Baltimore at Chicago White Sox
The O's look to snap a two-game skid behind starter Daniel Cabrera, who is undefeated in his five starts this season. Baltimore is the underdog pick (+130) according to Dunkel, which has the Orioles favored straight up by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+130). Here are all of today's games.
Game 901-902: Pittsburgh at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Snell) 13.758; NY Mets (Santana) 14.997
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 8
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-215); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-215); Over
Game 903-904: Cincinnati at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Arroyo) 14.192; St. Louis (Wellemeyer) 15.006
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-150); Over
Game 905-906: Houston at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Sampson) 15.186; Arizona (Haren) 15.746
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Arizona (-170); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-170); Under
Game 907-908: Colorado at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Morales) 14.550; San Francisco (Cain) 14.604
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-110); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-110); Over
Game 909-910: Baltimore at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Cabrera) 16.222; White Sox (Vazquez) 15.985
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+130); Over
Game 911-912: NY Yankees at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Mussina) 16.104; Cleveland (Laffey) 15.845
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-110); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-110); Under
Game 913-914: Oakland at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Gaudin) 15.824; LA Angels (Garland) 16.667
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-125); Under
NBA
Toronto at Orlando
After taking Game Four in Toronto, the Magic look to close out the series at home tonight where they are 10-4 ATS when listed as a favorite between 6 1/2 and 9 points. Orlando is the pick (-7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Magic favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-7 1/2). Here are all of today's games.
Game 717-718: Toronto at Orlando
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 117.144; Orlando 126.623
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 9 1/2; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 7 1/2; 203 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-7 1/2); Under
Game 719-720: Boston at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 125.163; Atlanta 118.203
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 7; 193
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 9; 189 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+9); Over
Game 721-722: LA Lakers at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 125.891; Denver 123.808
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 2; 223
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 4 1/2; 227 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+4 1/2); Under
NHL
Montreal at Philadelphia
The Flyers come off an emotional win at Montreal in Game Two and look to take advantage of a Canadiens team that lost two of three on the road in their first-round series against Boston. Philadelphia is the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has the Flyers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-135). Here are all of today's games.
Game 59-60: Montreal at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.491; Philadelphia 12.534
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-135); Under
VEGAS SPORTS PICS
NBA
Orlando Magic - 7 over Toronto Raptors
Toronto at 41-41 finished with the second worst record of the 16 playoff teams. Magic are 11-4 ATS last 15 home games vs. below .500 road teams.
MLB
Chicago White Sox (Vasquez) -1.5 (+145**) over Baltimore (Cabrera)
Cabrera went 0-1 in two starts vs. Chicago last season allowing 10 runs over 12 innings. White Sox are 10-2 last 12 Vasquez home starts including a 5-1 win over Baltimore last July.
New York Yankees (Mussina) -105** over Cleveland (Laffey)
Laffey with nine career starts makes his first 2008 start in a tough spot. The Yankees are 10-5 versus Cleveland last 15 meetings including 2-0 in two Mussina starts.
Arizona (Haren) -1.5 (+120**) over Houston (Sampson)
Haren is 3-0 at home allowing four runs over 21 innings. Arizona 9-2 at home won all four home meetings vs. Houston last season by a combined 35-12.
Jimmy The Moose
Game: Cincinnati Reds at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals
Reason: The Reds have dropped 6 of their last 9 road games. Cincinnati is 5-11 in their last 16 games overall. Arroyo, 0-3, is on the mound tonight. The Reds are 7-21 in his last 28 starts as an underdog. In his last 29 road starts the Reds are 6-23. The Cardinals are 23-9 in their last 32 games as a home favorite. St. Louis is 5-0 in Wellemeyers last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Cardinals are 8-2 in his last 10 games overall vs. a team with a losing record. The Reds are 1-4 in Arroyo's last 5 starts in St. Louis. Play on the Cardinals -.
Big Al Mcmordie
Game: New York Yankees at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: New York Yankees
Reason: At 7:05pm our member selection is on the New York Yankees over the Cleveland Indians. This could very well be Mike Mussina's last year before he hangs up the spikes. Mussina likely won't make the Hall Of Fame, and he probably doesn't care that much. But what no doubt matters most to the 39 year-old righthander is that in his 17+ year career, he has never won a World Series ring. Mussina joined the Yankees in 2001, one year after they won their last world title. And the way things are going in 2008, they'll be hard-pressed to win another one come this October. But you can never count these guys completely out and there's always that thing called the trading deadline when the Yankees have historically made moves to revive an otherwise lost season. This is the last game of a 4-game series at Cleveland's (newly re-named) Progressive Field and the first three have been real nail-biters with no game decided by more than 2 runs. With Jake Westbrook on the 15-day DL with a rib injury, the Tribe will turn this start over to 23 year-old lefthander Aaron Laffey. He's never faced the Bronx Bombers before and he may be without the services of the team's best hitter and leadoff man, Grady Sizemore who missed Sunday's game with a sprained ankle. Prior to Sunday, Sizemore had played in 382 straight games, the Majors' longest such active streak. Mussina has been getting plenty of run support in Cleveland lately, as his teammates have scored eleven runs in each of his last two starts there. Take the Yanks.
Terron Chapman
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets
Play: Under
Monday evening we'll make a play on the under between the Lakers and Nuggets in a win or go home situation for the Nuggets. In game three's analysis I mentioned some interesting factors brought to our attention from the folks over at statfox that gave us some some strong edges to hold our hat in making an under play.
When trailing in a first round playoff series the Nuggets o/u is 0-8 the last 3 years and 3-11 since 1996. The last 3 years in first round playoff games the o/u in Denver games is 1-12 and 5-18 since 1996.
The Lakers frustrated the Nuggets in game three by taking away their transition baskets and controlling tempo. If the Nuggets look to play on, they must get stops. I expect the tempo to resemble that of game three, but in a more competitive setting.
Oddsmakers are fully aware of bettors willingness to play the over in Nuggets games and have adjusted accordingly, leaving plenty of room for this one to fall short of expectations. Despite the two and half point adjsutment made from game three to game four, we can still find the neccesary room to make a solid play on the under for 2 units in this one.
John Fina
Selection: Colorado/San Francisco Over 7.5
Today we expect a high-scoring game as the Colorado Rockies do battle with the San Francisco Giants. One reason why we expect a high-scoring game is because both these teams will be sending to the mound struggling starting pitchers. The Colorado Rockies will send to the mound Franklin Morales. Franklin Morales has a very poor 6.00 ERA on the season. In addition, Franklin Morales has a 8.40 ERA in his last 3 starts. The San Francisco Giants will send to the mound Matt Cain. Matt Cain has also struggled this season which is shown by his 5.27 ERA. Matt Cain also has a 6.23 ERA in his last 3 starts. The bottom line, both these starting pitchers will once again give up many runs today. The fact that this game is being played in San Francisco is another reason why we are expecting a high-scoring game. That's because the Over is 7-2 in the San Francisco Giants last 9 home games. To say the least, we expect to see many runs scored tonight! Take the Colorado Rockies/San Francisco Giants Over 7.5
TONY WESTON
We get back on track tonight with some Eastern Conference action between the Boston Celtics and Atlanta Hawks. Sure, the Hawks looked really impressive Saturday and, if they can play like that for four games they can knock off the Celts
Well, too bad for Atlanta that aint going to happen again. At least not tonight. That win by the Hawks snapped a five-game winning streak by the Celtics SU. That win was also only the second win ATS in six games against Boston.
Also consider that the Hawks havent won back-to-back games ATS at home since win against the Bulls and Nuggets on Jan. 13 and 15.
It wont happen tonight against the Celtics, a much superior team than the Bulls or Nuggets.
Take Boston in an easy win at Atlanta.
3* CELTICS
Karl Garnett
Toronto at ORLANDO -8
After opening the series with two OVERS at Orlando, these teams have played a pair of games in Canada that both barely stayed UNDER the posted price.
The G-Man likes another OVER at Orlando, as this is an elimination game for the Raptors, and elimination games have a tendency to head OVER the posted price, especially late in the game when the trailing team is liable to foul a few more times than normal in an effort to keep their season alive.
Overall, 5 of the last 8 series meetings have found their way in the OVER column, and the G-Man is expecting another OVER before this one is all said and done.
With Toronto on the brink of heading home for the summer, expect the "bomb and foul" to unveil itself if the Raptors get behind in the 4th quarter.
Play this one HIGH!
4* OVER
Sports Gambling Hotline
LA Lakers -4½ at DENVER
Staying in the NBA tonight, as we expect the Lakers to close out the beleagured Nuggets.
Los Angeles is up a commanding 3-0 in this best of seven set, and they have covered in all 3 games. Taking it back to the regular season, the Lakers have won and covered the last 6 series meetings.
Anthony and Iverson came away from Game Three very frustrated, as did head coach George Karl, and you can assume whent the Lakers go on their run - they have done so in ALL 3 games to date - the Nuggets will pack it in for the season.
Every other series in the West is still on-going, so here is a chance for the #1 seed to get a few extra days rest with the series closer.
It's going to happen.
Play on the Lakers.
3* LA LAKERS