Bobby Bo
1* Lakers -5
JAKE TIMLIN
Boston Celtics
JEFF BENTON
3* COLORADO ROCKIES
Jennifer Barry
St. Louis Cardinals -140
Chad Jordan
Boston/Atlanta Over 189.5 Points
ARMVIN SPORTS
OLORADO ROCKIES -111
HeadWaiter Sports
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS -168
Priority Sports Info
Ariz.D'backs -170
Valley Sports
At.Hawks +9
Ariz.D'backs -170
Sports Book Edge
SF Giants/Col.Rockies Ov.9.5
NICK JONES
Orlando Magic -7.5
Silver Key Play for Monday ML Baseball
Yankees/CLEVELAND Over 9.5
Brandon Lang
20 Dime - Angels
10 Dime - Lakers
Free Pick - Cardinals
EZWINNERS
MLB
5 STAR PARLAY: (902) NY METS (-$210) and (906) ARIZONA (-$172)
(Listing Santana and Haren only)
(Risking $500 to win $665)
1 STAR: (909) BALTIMORE (+$142) over Chicago
(Listing Cabrera only)
(Risking $100 to win $142)
NBA
3 STAR: (722) DENVER (+5) over LA Lakers
(Risking $330 to win $300)
SportsKingz
MLB
ARIZONA -185
OAKLAND +115
NBA
L.A. LAKERS -4
Big AL
NBA 3* Denver
Opinion: Denver over
Opinion: Atlanta under
MLB 3* Oakland/LA under
JeffMoney
Celtics -9 (POD)
Magic -7.5
Montreal +110
Yanks Ev
LT Profits
Colorado Rockies -110
Matt Cain of the San Francisco Giants is generally regarded as the unluckiest pitcher in baseball over the last two years, as he pitched very well with a terrible record due to lack of run support. Well, he does not figure to get much support vs. the Colorado Rockies tonight either, but the difference this season is that frankly, his own numbers are not as good either.
Cain is 0-2 with a poor 5.27 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. To be fair, those numbers are skewed by one horrible outing at St. Louis, and he is coming off of a very nice outing in San Diego. Still, that marked just Cain’s second Quality Start in five starts, and the normally weak San Francisco offense will be even weaker tonight after Aaron Rowand suffered a rib injury yesterday. That is bad news as Cain could use all the runs he could get, and should he get pulled early, the 3.75 ERA of the San Francisco bullpen is extremely deceptive, considering that group’s collective 1.50 WHIP.
Now granted, Colorado southpaw Franklin Morales has numbers that are just as bad as Cain this year, with a 6.00 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. However, his numbers are also skewed by one bad outing at Arizona, and he was certainly serviceable in his only career starts here in San Francisco last season, allowing two runs on six hits in five innings. Also, he has the support of a Colorado bullpen that is now probably the best in the division.
Finally, as if the Giants don’t have enough problems offensively, they are batting an anemic /208 vs. left-handed pitching this year, so if the Rockies could manage to scrape together a few runs off of Cain, that should be enough to get the victory.
Pick: Rockies -110
Denver Nuggets +4.5
Superstar Carmelo Anthony accused his Denver Nuggets teammates of quitting during their 102-84 loss to the Los Angeles Lakers on Saturday, and we would not be surprised at all if the Nuggets put forth an extraordinary effort tonight to salvage a win in this series.
At the very least, that abysmal effort has given Denver some nice line value here, as they went from somewhat surprising small favorites in Game 3 to decided underdogs tonight. This is a team that won 50 games this season, and besides Anthony, we simply do not feel that their other veterans like Allen Iverson and Marcus Camby will allow this club to go down with no fight whatsoever. This reminds us a lot of the situation in Phoenix yesterday, where a team looked totally dead in Game 3 of a series to go down 3-0 and then rallied for their best effort of the series in a dominant Game 4 win.
Now obviously, it is extremely difficult to find anything negative about the Lakers here as far as the numbers are concerned. However, this is a game of emotion, and we just think that the Nuggets will give a peak performance here not wanting to get swept, while the Lakers are at a comfort level knowing they could still wrap up this series on their home court in Game 5 should they lose tonight.
Speaking of home court, the home team is still 14-6 against the spread in the last 20 head-to-head meetings between these clubs, Game 3 obviously notwithstanding, and we look for the Nuggets to spring a surprise here and win one for the home folks.
Pick: Nuggets +4.5
John Ryan
Houston Astros vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Houston Astros
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Houston Astros – Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 155-108 and has made 46.9 units since 2002. Play on any team excellent defensive catchers allowing <=0.35 SB's/game on the season and after 4 straight games where they stranded 7 or less runners on base. Houston starter Sampson has been largely inconsistent so far this season, but he is in a good spot for an upset win tonight. He has a 6.38 ERA overall, but in 2 road games has been strong producing a 2.63 ERA. He is also off a strong road start at Cincinnati pitching 7 innings and yielding just 2 ER while fanning 6 and walking just 1. This strong pitching will carry over to this game as well. Haren is a great starter, but does not like the Astros. He is just 0-2 when starting against Houston with an ERA of 6.23 and a WHIP of 1.499. Take the Astros.
Nelly
NY Yankees (Mussina) - over Cleveland (Laffey)
Aaron Laffey had modest success for the Indians late last season and most penciled him into the rotation for 2008. He was unbelievably bad this spring and out of necessity he’s been brought back up for a start today with Jake Westbrook’s injury. The Yankees have a lineup well suited to handle left-handed pitching and the patient approach for the Bombers should pay dividends as Laffey likely will have some command issues in his first big league start this season. Mike Mussina has fairly mediocre numbers this season but he has kept his team in games and would actually have good overall numbers if not for one bad start against Boston. Mussina pitched well in a 11-2 win over Cleveland last season and we expect the Yankees offense to have many opportunities today.
Scott Rickenbach
AFL 1* (regular play) Dallas Desperados (+) @ Philadelphia
In this huge match-up of AFL unbeatens it would be easy to sit here and type up all kinds of good things about both teams. However, let’s cut to the chase and get to the keys here. The keys of course are the variables that we feel are making the Desperados worth a play here in this Monday night match-up. Even though this game is being played in Philly, Dallas certainly is not intimidated by that. This is a Desperados team that has won 15 regular season games in a row. They can, and will, win anywhere and anytime. That said, the fact that we’re able to get 5.5 points with Dallas is an absolute bargain in this match-up. Even the sharpest AFL analysts would tell you that an outright win by Dallas certainly wouldn’t be a total shock here. That said, to be getting nearly a TD in a game that very easily could be decided by just a few points late in the game is definitely some solid line value.
We also like the fact that Dallas is coming off of their bye week and has had extra time to prepare for this game. Both of these teams are well coached but when you give a good coach extra time compared to his counterpart you are also giving him an edge in the match-up. Of course the bye week couldn’t have come at a more perfect time for Dallas as this is the biggest game of the season. Also helping the Desperados is that, even though this is the biggest game of the season, Philadelphia (of all things!) is bouncing between quarterbacks right now! As good as Tony Graziani is, his return at such a critical point in the schedule could throw off the chemistry that Matt D’Orazio, the Souls back-up QB had developed with the receivers. Don’t get us wrong…Graziani is good…he’s just not 100% and D’Orazio had been developing nicely. Last but not least, we like the Desperados defense over that of the Soul. Anyone can look at the numbers and see that Dallas is better on that side of the ball.
While Philly’s offense may look a little more explosive so far this season it’s hard to go against such an experienced quarterback like Clint Dolezel of the Desperados. In other words, Dallas will be able to score well against a Philly defense that has not been overly impressive this season while, at the same time, look for the Dallas defense to step up their game as they continue to show why they’re the top unit in the league! The Soul started off this season by dominating in their first four games. However, prior to last week’s big win, Philly had played three straight tight games as they had won each game by only single digits. We are convinced that Philly will be hard pressed to win this game, let alone cover a sizable spread. Dallas, with the better defense and the extra preparation time, can absolutely spring the upset so we’re taking the points with the Desperados. Play Dallas plus the points as a regular selection.
Ben Burns
Game: Montreal Canadiens at Philadelphia Flyers
Prediction: Philadelphia Flyers
Reason: The Flyers accomplished what they needed to do by splitting the two games at Montreal. In fact, they could have easily taken both contests. Returning home to Philadelphia, I expect them to grab tonight's game and take a 2-1 series lead. The Flyers were at their best when their series with the Capitals was tied. In Game 7, they traveled to the nation's capital and scored a 3-2 upset. Earlier in the series, after splitting the first two games on the road (sound familiar?) they returned home for Game 3 and dominated the Capitals by a score of 6-3.
The Canadiens, who got shaky goatending from rookie Carey Price in the last game, have lost three of their last five road games. The Flyers, who got excellent goaltending from Martin Biron last game, were 17-10 (+5.5) on the season after a win by two goals or more.
After his strong performance, the Flyers goalie was quoted as saying: "You feel like you take over the whole net. When the guy comes down to shoot, he's not seeing anything. The way the guys play in front of me allow me to make my reads, challenge when I have to challenge, stay deep when I have to stay deep, and I think that's been one of the differences in the playoffs." Busting with confidence, I look for Biron to deliver another strong effort and for the Flyers to move to 10-2 their last 12 home ice.
Ted Sevransky
Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels
PICK: Los Angeles Angels
The LA Angels are in stellar current form, taking two out of three from both the Red Sox and Tigers on their just concluded road trip. Since their 6-6 start, LA has gone 10-4 utilizing a combination of strong pitching and timely hitting. Tori Hunter, the Angels big free agent acquisition this past offseason: “We can compete with anybody, even in the position we’re in health-wise. We don’t have our No. 1 starter, John Lackey or Kelvim Escobar, because of injuries. When we get those guys back, we’re going to be even better.”
Jon Garland takes the hill tonight as LA returns home to face Oakland, with the two teams tied for first place. Garland has won his last two starts, following a rough stretch early in the season. The crafty righty doesn’t have much of a strikeout pitch these days, but he’s quite adept at pitching his way out of jams. Just as importantly, the Angels bullpen behind him has rounded into shape nicely in recent games after a rocky start.
Oakland is playing well of late, winners of seven of their last nine, and their bullpen ranks as the best in the AL. But the key to this bet is the struggles of Chad Gaudin against the Angels, particularly in Anaheim. He started three games in this venue last year, lasting only 13.2 innings of work, while allowing 19 hits and 14 runs. Angels slugger Vladimir Guerrero has owned Gaudin: 7 of 13 with three dingers against the young righty. Cheap price for the home team here, against a pitcher they have hit well.
Take the Angels.
David Malinsky
Baltimore Orioles @ Chicago White Sox
PICK: Over
Some early cold-weather reports and some misleading pitching numbers have led a market surge to the Under in this one, now to the point at which we can play Over 8.5 at no vig, or at worst reduced vig, in most key precincts. That gets us in the hunt in this one.
Daniel Cabrera is sporting unusually good control numbers so far, including no walks at all in his last outing, when he went eight full innings at Seattle. But is this for real? In five starts the teams that he matched up against rate #9, #10 and #11 in the A.L. in drawing walks (he faced the Mariners and Rays twice). Now it is a different matter entirely against a Chicago lineup that knows how to wait him out - the six starters that have seen him before, Swisher, Carbrera, Thome, Konerko, Pierzynski and Crede - are not only 22-62 against him (.355), but have also drawn 13 walks, for a .467 on-base. These guys are accustomed to the cold by now, and can make it difficult for him to find his rhythm on this day.
Meanwhile Vazquez has been playing his own version of Russian Roulette on the mound this season. Yes, he has been solid at 3-2/4.40, and on first glance it appears that he has negated an old weakness of giving up the long-ball - after allowing 29 home runs in 197 innings LY, no one has taken him deep in 30.2 this season. But nothing has changed in his pitching style; if anything a ratio of 48 fly-ball outs to just 22 on the ground so far this season indicates a difficult in getting the ball down. To get that many fly ball outs over 30.2 innings without any of them leaving the park is sleight of hand.
We do not need an offensive break-out here; if each team reaches four we are guaranteed a win. It is a case of the marketplace creating a bargain range for us in a game in which scoring will not be all that difficult (there is even a mild wind out to right field, which helps with the number of left-handers that will be batting against these pitchers).
FRANK ROSENTHAL
NBA PLAYOFFS *
717 RAPTORS+8 SB
UNDER 204 SB
719 CELTICS-9 SB
UNDER 189.5 SB+
722 NUGGETS+4.5 SB
UNDER 226.5 SB+
MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL
905 ASTROS UNDER 9.5 SB+
907 ROCKIES-110 SB
OVER 7.5 SB
909 COOKIES+140 SB
912 TRIBE-105 SB
914 ANGELS-1209 SB+
MONEY LOCK OF THE DAY
JUNIOR'S PICK
DBACKS - 1 1/2
DIGGER'S PICK
ROCKIES/SF OVER 7.5