IndianCowboy
Game: Los Angeles Lakers @ Denver Nuggets
Pick: 3 units Denver Nuggets +4.5 (Play of the Day)
To close out the thought that I had on the research earlier, I've always believed the +4.5 or +5.5 Home dog price is one of the most indicative of Vegas believing a team will win outright and tonight is no different in my opinion. As the research below explains, I believe this is a repeat of the Suns vs. Spurs game 4 that occurred this weekend. Nuggets are 10-3 ATS after a straight up loss of more than 10 points and the home team is 14-6 ATS in the last 20 ballgames.
The article that I wrote yesterday about the Heavy favorites winning games 1 and 2, losing game 3 on the road to the underdog, then they typically come back to win game 4. Examples of series that have followed this prototype include (Hornets vs. Mavs, Magic vs. Raptors and Boston vs. Atlanta). However, the 2 series out west have not and that includes the Lakers vs. Denver and Phoenix vs. San Antonio as neither the Suns nor the Nuggets came back home to win game 3, but the Suns did win game 4 to avoid getting swept. Just based on that principle alone, it is tough for me to imagine that the Lakers want to close this baby out on the road here rather than at L.A. Furthermore, I would not be surprised to see the Nuggets, who are still a very proud team, take at least one game here as they got pummeled in game 3 - in an embarrassing way. These are still professionals and I think this team seriously took a blow to their morale. Just out of principle, this should be a play in my opinion. I'm a bit surprised to see this line overall, as 66% of the public do prefer the Lakers after the beat down they delivered in game 3, but I think this is similar to the Suns vs. Spurs in Game 4 the other day and I wouldn't be surprised to see a Nuggets outright win here, like I said, this is simply out of principle I like the Nuggs here, too much value.
LT Profits
NBA Toronto Raptors +8.0 / 2 units
MLB Cincinnati Reds 125 / 2 units
Mike Rose
AFL Dallas Desperados +5.5 / 5 units
NBA Los Angeles Lakers/Denver Nuggets Over 227.5 / 5 units
JB Sports
Denver Nuggets +4.5 / 2 units
Bob Balfe
NBA Basketball
Magic -7 over Raptors
The Raptors were up by a point going into the 4th quarter in Game four. Orlando blew them out of the water in their own home building. The tempo is all in favor of the Magic and they will want to wrap up the series at home tonight. The line seems a little high, but the Raptors will foul late with their season being on the line if it is close. If Orlando has another huge first quarter the Raptors will never get back into the game. Take Orlando.
Boston/Atlanta Under 190
The Hawks stuck it to Boston last game and really woke up the Celtics who coasted through the first two games due to Atlanta's weak play. The Celtics will be focused tonight and their defense will not allow Atlanta to score 100 points again. Atlanta does have some hope, but once Boston gets ahead this young team might fold. Take the Under.
Lakers/Nuggets Under 227
The Nuggets are facing elimination and will play with all they have tonight. These teams have played four times in the last week and its hard to keep the tempo up. Although both teams do not play defense they still know the strengths to try to contain. Again, a lot of things have to go just right for this game to go over the total. Look for The Lakers to slow it down and try to creep out with the series.
Major League Baseball
Angels -120 over A's
Savannah Sports
2 Units on LA Lakers -5
Wolkosky Milan
10* TORONTO +7½
10* LA LAKERS -4½
10* TOR/ORL OVER 203
5* LA ANGELS -123
5* COL/SFG OVER 7½
Winners Inc. Guaranteed Selections
HOME RUN BASEBALL TRIPLE PLAY TOTALS WINNER
OVER 7.5 Colorado and San Francisco
HOME RUN BASEBALL TRIPLE PLAY WINNER
Arizona w/Haren -184
Duke's Sports
*Best Bet* Boston Under (189) for 3 Units
This season, Boston has hung their hat on shutting teams down defensively; as a result, the Celtics sprang to the top of the NBA in defense and the standings. And Boston's resourceful solution off an upset loss all year has been defense, as evidenced by their 3-8 O/U mark following a loss as a favorite.The Celtics were lethargic defensively Saturday; we'll look for more passion and hustle defensively, which should negate more Josh Smith highlight reel dunks. And the Hawks' 55% from 3pt range on Saturday was a severe aberration from its measly 16% in its first 5 games vs Boston this season. Tonight, we'll look for better perimeter defense from the Celtics. And considering that this series did not top 189 in the first 5 games this season, we'll look for the Celtics, which got their wake up call Saturday, to nut up, play to their potential, and choke out the young Hawks while keeping this one "under" in a lopsided game.
Toronto Under (203') for 3 Units
This playoff series has taken a point production downturn since that opening game at Orlando in which the Magic bombed the Raptors hitting 61% in the first quarter. We've seen two straight "unders" in this series and should see an "under" here. Orlando has gone "under" in 10 of its last 13 games,control a 19-23 O/U mark at home, and sport a 14-23 O/U mark after scoring 105+. Toronto, on the other hand, is on a 9-27 O/U run on Mondays, and have gone "under" in 9 of their last 12 games.
Boston (-9) for 2 Units
MLB:
New York Yankees (+102) [Mussina Over Laffey] for 2 Units
The Yankees' Mike Mussina finally broke out of his funk last Wednesday by showing a glimpse of his old self in a solid 7 inning performance at Chicago. We'll look for him to follow up strong here; after all, the Indians aren't exactly knocking the cover off the ball at home vs righties, yet. And "Moose" sports a respectable 3.88 ERA vs Cleveland. New York controls a 23-14 mark on Mondays, 11-5 in their last 15 in this 'total' range, and cashed the ticket in 14 of 25 small road dog roles over the last 3 seasons. The Indians, however, are just 12-23 as a small home favorite and 2-5 at home in this 'total' range. We'll look for the Yankees to break out on the Indians' young southpaw - Laffey - who was called up from AAA for scheduling purposes.
Red Dog Sports
3* Dallas +5.5
Fat Jack
DENVER +4 1/2
HITMAN
Orlando Magic
St. Louis
Josh Dean
Mont/Phil UNDER 5.5
Ross Benjamin
Colorado (Morales) @ San Francisco (Cain)
Play On: San Francisco -110
The Colorado starter Morales enters the game in bad form off his last 3 starts posting an 8.40 ERA. In 2 road starts this season Morales has posted a whopping 11.00 ERA. The Rockies are ice cold right now going 1-7 in the last 8. Matt Cain has posted a stellar 1.83 ERA in 6 home team starts versus Colorado since the 2005 season. The Giants have had a good history versus left-handed starters when playing at home since the 2003 season especially when playing at night. Play on the San Francisco Giants
Tony Matthews
20 Stars: Denver Nuggets +5.5
Sebastian
20 NYY/Cleve Under
20 SF Giants
10 Oak/LAA Under
20 Montreal
50 Denver
50 Denver Over