AJ Apollo
Cincinnati Reds 133 / 3 units
INDIAN COWBOY
Nuggets +4.5 (POD)
To close out the thought that I had on the research earlier, I've always believed the +4.5 or +5.5 Home dog price is one of the most indicative of Vegas believing a team will win outright and tonight is no different in my opinion. As the research below explains, I believe this is a repeat of the Suns vs. Spurs game 4 that occurred this weekend. Nuggets are 10-3 ATS after a straight up loss of more than 10 points and the home team is 14-6 ATS in the last 20 ballgames.
The article that I wrote yesterday about the Heavy favorites winning games 1 and 2, losing game 3 on the road to the underdog, then they typically come back to win game 4. Examples of series that have followed this prototype include (Hornets vs. Mavs, Magic vs. Raptors and Boston vs. Atlanta). However, the 2 series out west have not and that includes the Lakers vs. Denver and Phoenix vs. San Antonio as neither the Suns nor the Nuggets came back home to win game 3, but the Suns did win game 4 to avoid getting swept. Just based on that principle alone, it is tough for me to imagine that the Lakers want to close this baby out on the road here rather than at L.A. Furthermore, I would not be surprised to see the Nuggets, who are still a very proud team, take at least one game here as they got pummeled in game 3 - in an embarrassing way. These are still professionals and I think this team seriously took a blow to their morale. Just out of principle, this should be a play in my opinion. I'm a bit surprised to see this line overall, as 66% of the public do prefer the Lakers after the beat down they delivered in game 3, but I think this is similar to the Suns vs. Spurs in Game 4 the other day and I wouldn't be surprised to see a Nuggets outright win here, like I said, this is simply out of principle I like the Nuggs here, too much value.
Hawks +9.5
Here we go, another game in which 66% of the public is riding the Celtics. I was mentioning to a friend yesterday that Boston is not going to be in a good mood coming into this game losing a playoff game to the Hawks, who I hit the Hawks and the over in that game as I was there in Phillips and loved seeing the baby Hawks show up. You know what this game reminds me of? The Rockets vs. Utah game 4. Why? Well, many thought that Utah coming off that loss in game 3 would get fired up and show up big and blowout the Rockets. Utah did win, but they did not cover. I think something similar might happen today as the Hawks realize, this is their golden opportunity today. If they can somehow pull this game out and keep focused, they have evened this baby up. Do I think it will happen? no. However, I do think that this is likely going to be a much closer game than people realize. I do think there is a bit more defense today, but more importantly, I think the Hawks surprise some folks and hit the cover this evening. The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings between these squads, Hawks likely lose tonight, but make an exceeded effort and fall inside the number imo.
Raptors +7.5
The bottom line here is I simply do not see the Raptors going down without a fight. Remember in Game 2, where there was ominous spread of -6.5 and it went down to -6 prior to game time and this was after the Raptors got hammered in game 1? Yet, the line was lower than what it was in game 1 as it was set at -6.5, well much is the similar case today. I look for the Magic to close this game out today, but simply too much value on Toronto who showed value at +6 on the road in game 2 and that was not even an elimination game where they barely lose by a bucket, and now getting +7.5 in an elimination game coming off a home loss is solid value here. I'll take the Raptors to possibly avoid elimination here, but more importantly, to lose but to lose within the cover. Raptors are 4-1 as underdogs of this margin and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Orlando. I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar result in Game 2 where the Magic win by around a bucket.Research that went into this game: There is no more series price in this game as obviously many believe the Magic will close this baby out here and now as they have shown they can win at home and on the road all season, as well as in this series as well. The article that I wrote yesterday about the Heavy favorites winning games 1 and 2, losing game 3 on the road to the underdog, then they typically come back to win game 4. Examples of series that have followed this prototype include (Hornets vs. Mavs, Magic vs. Raptors and Boston vs. Atlanta). Thus, now, there is game 5 and I mentioned yesterday that I would not be surprised to see the Magic win this game straight up but fail to cover. Roughly just under 60% of the public believes the Magic close out here, but I find it hard to believe the Raptors will simply go away quietly. Do note that I think this game goes over as well and I lean on the Raptors to lose, but to lose within the cover today. I'll likely do a play on this game. In fact, I like the card overall today in the nba, much better than yesterday's playoff card when I took just one game
GOLD SHEET'S LTS
L.A. LAKERS (-5)
BOSTON/ATLANTA UNDER 189 1/2
Jim Feist
NBA
5* Celtics
Platinum Magic
Personal Best Lakers
Total Over Raptors
MLB
5* Chi Whitesox
Platinum San Francisco
Inner Circle St Louis
Dave Cokin
NBA
3* Magic
Window Celtics
MLB
Under the Hat Oakland
Total Under Rockies
Scott Spreitzer
NBA
5* Denver
KO Celtics
MLB
5* Yankees
5* San Fran
KO St Louis
Toal Over Yankees
Andrew Powers Guaranteed Selections
BASEBALL POWER PLAY OF THE DAY
St Louis w/Wellemeyer -138
AJ Apollo
Cincinnati Reds 133 / 3 units
AJ Apollo
NBA 5* Atlanta +9 Best Bet
PPP
3% LA LAKERS -4
3% BOS/ATL UNDER 189.5
Yankee Capper
2 Units - Boston Celtics -9
James Patrick Sports
NBA Opening Round Totals Game of the Year
Lakers/Nuggets Over