SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
N.Y. Mets (16-13) at L.A. Dodgers (17-14)
The Dodgers try to start a new winning streak when they send Chad Billingsley (1-4, 5.20 ERA) to the mound at Dodger Stadium, while the Mets are scheduled to counter with Oliver Perez (2-2, 4.03) in the opener of a three-game series.
Los Angeles had an eight-game winning streak snapped with Sunday’s 7-2 loss in Colorado. It was the Dodgers’ lowest run output in 10 games, as they averaged 8.8 runs per game during their streak, including producing double-digit runs four times.
New York arrives in Southern California having taken two of three from league-leading Arizona, including Sunday’s 5-2 win in the desert. The Mets have won five of their last seven overall, but they’re still under .500 on the highway (7-8).
These teams split their 10-game series last year, but the Mets did win five of the last seven, including three of four in Los Angeles.
Billingsley was stellar in his last start Wednesday, picking up his first victory of the season by allowing one run on three hits in seven innings of a 13-1 drubbing of the Marlins. At home this year, the right-hander is 0-2 with a 5.56 ERA. Tonight marks Billingsley’s first career start against the Mets.
Perez didn’t stick around long in his last outing on Thursday against the Pirates, getting chased after 1 2/3 innings after surrendering seven runs (only two earned) on two hits and five walks in a 13-1 home loss. Over his last two outings, the southpaw is 0-2 with an 8.59 ERA, allowing 12 runs (seven earned) in 7 1/3 innings.
Perez is 2-1 with a 2.60 ERA in three road games this year and 5-4 with a 3.53 ERA in 10 career starts against the Los Angeles, including 3-2 with a 3.50 ERA in six outings at Dodger Stadium.
The Dodgers are 4-1 in Billingsley’s last five starts versus N.L. East competition, and they’re on further streaks of 6-1 at home, 10-3 on Mondays, 5-0 in the first game of a series and 7-3 against the N.L. East. Meanwhile, the Mets are just 4-8 in their last 12 games against winning teams, but 5-1 in their last six against right-handed starters.
The over is 4-2 in Perez’s six starts this season (2-1 on the road) and 4-0 in Billingsley’s last four outings (2-0 in the last two).
The under is 4-1-1 the last six times these teams have met, but the over is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings on the West Coast. The over is also 4-1-1 in the Mets’ last six overall, 14-7-1 in their last 22 road games and 17-9-2 in their last 28 on the road against right-handed starters six. Meanwhile the Dodgers are on over runs of 9-3-1 overall, 7-1 at home, 22-6-1 on Mondays, 35-16 in the first game of a series and 5-0 at home against teams with a winning mark.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (20-13) at Detroit (14-18)
Fresh off a three-game sweep of the Rays and 5-1 homestand, the Red Sox hit the road and hand the ball to Daisuke Matsuzaka (4-0, 2.52 ERA), while the Tigers counter with ace Jeremy Bonderman (2-2, 3.86) in the first of a three-game set at Comerica Park.
Boston wrapped up its weekend sweep of Tampa Bay with Sunday’s 7-3 win to improve to 5-1 in its last six, a run that comes on the heels of a five-game losing streak. Now the Sox take to the road where they have dropped three straight and are just 6-8 for the season.
Detroit returns home after a six-game road trip that saw the Tigers sweep the Yankees, then get swept by the Twins, concluding with Sunday’s 7-6 loss when they scored six first-inning runs and were shutout the rest of the way. Detroit scored 20 runs in winning three games in New York, then managed just eight runs in Minnesota, including scoring single runs in losses on Friday and Saturday.
The Tigers are on a 4-2 run against the Red Sox, but Boston took two of three earlier this season at Fenway Park. The only win for Detroit came when Bonderman delivered a quality start, allowing two runs (one earned) on five hits in five innings of a 7-2 victory. Otherwise the Red Sox are 29-14 in the last 43 series clashes, but just 1-4 the last five games at Comerica.
Bonderman has gone three straight outings of allowing two earned runs, and in Wednesday’s 6-2 victory at Yankee Stadium, he yielded just five hits and a walk in 7 2/3 innings. The Tigers have won six straight games against Boston with Bonderman on the hill, as the right-hander has limited the Red Sox to three runs or less in seven of his last eight starts against them. For his career, Bonderman is 4-4 with a 4.35 ERA against the BoSox.
Dating back to last season, Boston has each of Matsuzaka’s last eight straight starts, including Wednesday’s 2-1 victory over the Blue Jays when the right-hander tossed seven shutout innings, allowing on two hits and two walks. In April, Dice-K blanked the Tigers on four hits for 6 2/3 innings of a 5-0 Red Sox win. But in his lone visit to Comerica last year, he got shelled for six runs on 10 hits in five innings of a 6-5 loss.
Boston is on streaks of 20-7 against the A.L. Central Division, 40-17 against teams with a losing record, 12-5 on the road against losing teams, 11-1 in Matsuzaka’s last 12 starts and 4-1 when he toes the rubber on the road. Meanwhile the Tigers are runs of 6-2 at home, 12-4 when Bonderman opens a series and 8-3 with him on the hill against teams with a winning mark. However, Detroit is on slides of 2-6 when Bonderman works in Comerica and 4-10 overall against winning teams.
The under is 8-3-1 in the last 12 head-to-head matchups , 4-0 in Bonderman’s last four outings against the Sox and 4-1-1 in Bonderman’s six starts this season. The under is also 6-3 in Boston’s last nine and 18-6-1 in its last 25 Monday games. However, the over is 11-5-2 in the Tigers’ last 18 on Mondays and 5-2-2 in their last nine at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NBA PLAYOFFS
WESTERN CONFERENCE
San Antonio (4-2, 2-3-1 ATS) New Orleans (5-1, 4-2 ATS)
The upstart Hornets try to take a 2-0 lead in their best-of-7 conference semifinal series when they host the Spurs in Game 2 inside New Orleans Arena.
New Orleans outscored San Antonio 56-33 in the second half Saturday en route to the 101-82 win and easy cover as a three-point home chalk. The Hornets shot 50 percent from the floor Saturday and got 30 points and nine rebounds from David West and 17 points and 13 assists from Chris Paul. The Spurs, meanwhile, shot just 40 percent, and superstar Tim Duncan had the worst playoff game of his career, going 1-for-9 from the field for five points and three rebounds.
New Orleans now has a 3-2 SU and ATS advantage in the season series, including winning the last two by 25 and 19 points, respectively. Dating back to 2005, the Spurs are still 8-3 SU (6-5 ATS) against the Hornets, and they have won four of the last six SU and ATS on the road. Finally, the straight-up winner is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings overall, and the road team is still 6-3 ATS in the last nine.
Gregg Popovich’s Spurs are 6-2 SU in their last eight overall (4-4 ATS), but just 23-21 (16-28 ATS) on the road this season (playoffs included). Also, San Antonio is a miserable 2-11 ATS as an underdog of less than four points this year, and the team is on further pointspread slides of 4-10 as an underdog of any price, 5-14 as a road pup and 1-6 on the highway.
Conversely, Byron Scott’s Hornets are on a plethora of positive ATS streaks, including 42-20-1 overall, 22-7 at home, 17-5-1 as a favorite, 20-7 as a home favorite, 7-0 as a home playoff favorite and 11-5 against the Western Conference.
Saturday’s game landed right on the 183-point total, but the under is still 4-1-1 in the last six series clashes (2-0-1 in New Orleans), 11-5-1 in the Spurs’ last 17 as a ‘dog and 16-6-1 in the Spurs’ last 23 against the Southwest Division. On the flip side, the over is on streaks of 6-2-1 for San Antonio overall, 8-3-1 for San Antonio as a playoff underdog, 11-5-1 for San Antonio in conference semifinal contests, 17-7-3 for the Hornets as a home favorite and 6-1-1 for the Hornets in conference semifinal games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Orlando (4-2, 3-3 ATS) at Detroit (5-2 SU and ATS)
After a dominating performance in Game 1, the Pistons look to go up 2-0 and record their fifth consecutive win overall when they host the Magic in Game 2 of their best-of-7 Eastern Conference semifinal series inside the Palace of Auburn Hills.
Detroit led wire-to-wire in Saturday’s 91-72 victory as a 6½-point favorite. Five Pistons scored in double figures, and Detroit won all the pertinent categories, including outrebounding Orlando 47-40 and committing just six turnovers compared to the Magic’s 13. Defensively, the Pistons also held Orlando to 2-of-15 shooting (13.3 percent) from beyond the 3-point line.
The Pistons now lead the season series 3-2 SU and ATS, as the winner has cashed in all five contests. Detroit has also won five straight playoff contests (2-2-1 ATS) against the Magic after sweeping them out of the first round last season. Also, despite the Game 1 result, the road team is still 15-6-3 ATS in the last 24 series clashes between these two, with the Magic going 6-3-3 ATS in their last 12 trips to Motown (playoffs included).
The Magic are on a 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS roll going back to the regular season, but Stan Van Gundy’s squad is just 1-2 SU and ATS on the road in the playoffs.
Detroit, in the conference semifinals for the seventh straight year, has now won four consecutive contests both SU and ATS after winning the final three games of their quarterfinal series against Philadelphia. Going back to the regular season, Flip Saunders’ team is 9-2 SU and ATS in their last 11 games.
The straight-up winner is 18-1-1 ATS in Orlando’s last 19 games and 15-0 ATS in Detroit’s last 15.
The Magic are still on ATS streaks of 7-3 against the Eastern Conference, 6-1-1 against Central Division squads, 18-8-1 as an underdog, 5-3 on the highway and 15-7-1 as a road ‘dog. However, they are just 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 as a playoff road ‘dog.
The Pistons are in the midst of positive pointspread runs of 9-2 as a favorite, 6-1 as a home favorite, 5-1 against the Eastern Conference, 6-2 in conference semifinal action and 28-11 when playing on one days’ rest. However Detroit’s negative ATS trends include 10-12-1 in the playoffs (5-8 ATS in the last 13) and 10-17-1 as a playoff chalk (5-8 ATS last 13 as a playoff favorite).
Even though Saturday’s game stayed well under the posted total, the over has still been the play in four of the last six head-to-head meetings between these teams and nine of the last 11 series clashes in the Motor City.
For Orlando, the under is on runs of 12-3 overall (4-2 in the playoffs), 9-1 on the road, 11-3 against the Eastern Conference and 6-0 against Central Division teams. For the Pistons, the under is on streaks of 14-5 overall (5-2 in the playoffs), 13-4 as a favorite, 10-2 when playing on one days’ rest, 6-0 against Southeast Division teams and 16-4 against the Eastern Conference.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
VEGAS EXPERTS
Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners
The M's should be able to snap their five game losing skid against a Rangers team that is not good away from home (just 9-29 vs. sub-.500 foes away from home) and is getting horrendous pitching (5.55 team ERA is an AL worst). It also helps that Texas is hitting just .257 away from home and scoring only 3.4 runs per game vs. southpaws this season. Seattle is 22-6 at home as a favorite of -125 to -150.
Play on: Seattle
Matt Fargo
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies hit the road after winning both of their series at home the past week. They took two of three in each set and the come from behind win on Sunday will definitely provide some momentum heading into Arizona. Philadelphia has now won 10 of its last 14 games to move into first place in the National League East. The offense continues to be up and down but the pitching remains a constant positive. The Phillies have won nine of the last 13 meetings in Arizona.
The Diamondbacks dropped their series to the Mets over the weekend and remain in a bit of a struggle after a red hot start. Arizona has been missing opportunities on offense and the pitching has been the real disappointment of late. Pitching has been the strength all season but the Diamondbacks have allowed 29 runs over the last five games and taking away two Brandon Webb starts and they have allowed six rpg over their last six games. Even with Webb, the ERA from the starters is 4.73 in their home games.
Jamie Moyer has been hit or miss this season but for the most part he has been consistently steady. He has not blown up in any game as four runs is the most he has allowed in his six starts on the season. Half of his starts have been quality outings including both of his starts on the road against the Brewers and the Mets. Dating back to last season, he has tossed five straight quality outings outside of Philadelphia. Also, he had one start in Arizona last season which was quality and resulted in a win.
Arizona counters with rookie Max Scherzer and this is a rather big price to be put on the arm of a rookie. This is not his debut and the success of that first outing is part of the reason for this big number. He came out of the bullpen with two outs in the third inning against Houston this past Tuesday and proceeded to retire all 13 batters he faced. This included 13 strikeouts. While he is going to be a solid part of this rotation, the value for the Phillies is too good to pass up.
Play Philadelphia Phillies 1.5 Units
James Patrick Sports
Angels vs. Royals
The Halos have enjoyed their visits to Kaufman Stadium as they have posted 10 wins in their past 15 games in KC. Our selection on Monday in Major League action is Los Angeles Angels.
Dave Cokin
Rangers @ Mariners
Play: Rangers +115
Kevin Millwood and Jared Washburn take the mound tonight as the Rangers open a set with the Mariners in Seattle. Millwood has been pretty good on the road in the early going. Washburn got off to a terrific start, allowing just 20 baserunners in his first 18 innings. But in his last three starts, Washburn has been knocked around, permitting just under two baserunners per inning. I think Texas will be the fresher team with the M's having to make the cross country jaunt after getting swept by the Yanks. So it looks to me like decent enough value to justify a play on the Rangers as dogs tonight.
Tom Scott
Orlando at DETROIT
Play ON: UNDER
You all saw how difficult it was for Orlando to get points yesterday. Today will be no different. The Pistons have the perfect matchups defensively for every one of Orlando's weapons and, truth be told, the same applies to the Magic defense against the Detroit arsenal. This will be a series in which neither team puts triple digits on the score board in any game. In fact, the 91 Detroit put up yesterday may be the high water mark for this whole set. Look for another power defensive game from both sides here.
PREDICTION: TOTAL POINTS SCORED - 170
Great Lakes Sports
Texas at Seattle
Play on: Texas Rangers with Millwood
The Texas Rangers are on a nice run of late winning their last four games, and are 3-0 so far this May while the Seattle Mariners are struggling as they lost their last four games, and are a dismal 13-18 this year. We look for the Texas Rangers to dismantle the Seattle Mariners for the road Win tonight.
Tom Freese
Ny Mets at Los Angeles
Los Angeles is 6-0 their last 6 games vs. lefties and they are 8-1 their last 9 games overall. The Dodgers are 5-0 in Game 1 of a series and they are 6-0 vs. a pitchers with a with a WHIP of with over 1.30. New York is 4-10 their last 14 games vs. righthanders and they are 1-5 with Oliver Perez if they are off a loss in their last game. Perez is in terrible KW form with more walks than strikeouts in his last 3 starts. PLAY ON LOS ANGELES vs. Perez
Jimmy The Moose
Game: Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays
Reason: Chicago is struggling losing 5 straight. The White Sox are 1-6 in their last 7 games as a road underdog. Chicago has lost their lsat 5 games played on turf. The White Sox are 5-12 in Vazquezs last 17 starts as a road dog. After a bad road trip the Jays have returned home and started to win again. Toronto has now won 4 straight and in their last 6 home games they are 5-1. The Jays are 6-1 in McGowan's last 7 starts as a home favorite. Chicago is 0-5 in their last 5 trips to Toronto. The Blue Jays are 6-2 in the last 8 meetings between the clubs. Play on the Toronto Blue Jays -.
Big Al Mcmordie
Game: St Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals
Reason: At 8:35pm ET our member selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Colorado Rockies. Eight years ago, the Cardinals set a franchise record with 17 wins in the month of April, thanks in large part to a pitching phenom by the name of Rick Ankiel. Now fast-forward to 2008, and the Cardinals have broken that record with 18 April wins, and one of the main reasons is a relatively new outfielder and hitting star by the name of Rick Ankiel. Of course it hasn't hurt that the Cards also have an offense that features Albert Pujols, Chris Duncan, and a somewhat rejuvenated Troy Glaus. But it's been the starting pitching that has made the biggest difference for the Cards. One of the biggest surprises has been the performance of unheralded righthanded starter Joel Pineiro. Pineiro has three quality starts in a row and he has won his last two at Pittsburgh and at home against the Reds. The outing against the Reds was particularly impressive as Pineiro only gave up one hit in seven innings against one of the best lineups in the National League. Colorado has had a major turnaround this season, but unfortunately for them it is the wrong type of reversal. The Rockies have gone from World Series finalist to one of the worst teams in the league after the first month of the season. And there is seemingly no easy explanation for this as their roster experienced very few changes from last season to now. The recent loss of shortstop Troy Tulowitzki until sometime around the All-Star break will not help Colorado break out of its doldrums. Take St. Louis.
VEGAS SPORTS PICS
Detroit Pistons - 6 over Orlando Magic
Detroit handily defeated Orlando 91-72 in game one of this series. The Pistons, which swept Orlando 4-0 in last season's playoffs, have advanced to the Eastern finals in each of the last 5 seasons.
San Antonio Spurs + 2.5 over (at) New Orleans Hornets
Defending NBA Champ San Antonio, 20-6 last 26 playoff games, figures to come with a focused effort to avenge a 101-82 loss at N.O. in game one. Resilient Spurs are now 13-4 last 17 meetings.
JB's COMPUTER PLAYS
Boston Red Sox - 110
Chicago Cubs - 105
Los Angeles Angels - 140
Yankee Capper
2 Units - Cardinals/Rockies Over 10
2 Units - Magic/Pistons Over 185
Cappers Access
Magic
Cubs
Texas
Purelock Premium Play
BOSTON
JEFFERSONSPORTS
NBA
SAN ANTONIO UNDER 182
MLB
Cubs+101
St. Louis+115
Arizona-135
La Angels-130
EZWINNERS
MLB
1 STAR: (956) ARIZONA (-$140) over Philadelphia
(Listing Scherzer and Moyer)
(Risking $140 to win $100)
1 STAR: (968) SEATTLE (-$130) over Texas
(Listing Washburn only)
(Risking $130 to win $100)
NBA
1 STAR: (711) SAN ANTONIO (+2.5) over New Orleans
(Risking $110 to win $100)
Vic Monte
100* Inside Info Selection - Chicago Cubs +$110
I will start this off right away by making a "Big" point. Reds starting pitcher Johnny Cueto is a "Money Burner". The Reds are just 1-5 -$556 in Cueto's starts this season. That Ranks him #95 out of 96 starting pitchers in the National League, with only Barry Zito burning more money (0-6 -$600). On the other side of the diamond, Cubs starting pitcher Ryan Dempster has been a "Cash Cow" this season! The Cubbies are 5-1 +$280 in Dempsters starts this season, that Ranks Ryan #5 in the National League. So we are going to back the #5 ranked pitcher over the #95 ranked pitcher at +$110. Is it a Trap? No! The Public loves to back the Reds and Cueto. A young strong arm that everyone wants to see do good. There for the line is adjusted accordingly. Its not like Cueto is pitching lights out but just not winning. 0-2 with a 7.47 ERA in his last 3 starts. In his last start he only lasted 1.2 innings allowing 6 Earned Runs on 8 hit and walking 1 batter. That is just to much for a young guy to forget and then pitch a gem 5 days later. Want More? The Cubs are a "Money Making" 14-6 in there last 20 spots as a "Road Underdog" while the Reds 7-21 in there last 28 against the NL Central. Did I mention the Reds have lost 5 Straight games & are only 3-8 in there last 11 overall coming into play tonight!
100* Inside Info - Cubs
Jim Feist.
NY Mets and LA Dodgers.
Take NY Mets
Dodger stadium is a huge park, great for pitchers. You need speed on the base paths when playing here, and in this game the visiting Mets have it, tied for third in NL in thefts. Veteran righty Nelson Figueroa has been very good for the Mets, allowing 26 hits in 28 innings with 22 Ks. LA starter Chad Billingsley is struggling at 1-4 with a 5.20 ERA. Control has been a problem, walking 17 in 27 innings. A good spot for the dog, play the NY Mets