Steve Buldin's Pick 100 DIME RELEASE
NEW ORLEANS HORNETS ON THE MONEY LINE
Josh Dean
KC +124
Bost/Det UNDER 9
Oscarxena Sports
Orlando/Detroit Over 184 1/2 -1.05 (4 Unit Play)
These two teams are already starting to talk trash about each other which should make for a very tense atmosphere here tonight in Detroit for Game 2 of this series. I did some examination of the stats of the games between these two clubs and decided that there was enough value on this game to make a 4* play on the Over here. In the playoffs you have to figure the defensive intensity will be better for both teams and Game 1 was not an exception. However the teams combined to take 158 shots which was the most shots attempted yet this year as in the four meetings prior to Game 1 the shots attempted were 157, 151, 145 & 150. I bring this stat up to show the fact that 3 of the 4 regular season games went Over the total. So why then did Game 1 go so far Under the total? The simple fact is that the teams combined to go the FT line only 38 times in Game 1. That was a far comparison to during the regular season where they went to the free throw line 48, 56, 67 & 63 times each game. With the trash talking going on the referees should be more liberal with the whistle tonight and you have to figure that Orlando will be more competitive in this game which all adds up to an Over play for me here tonight.
San Antonio/New Orleans Under 182 +1.02 (3 Unit Play)
This play is being based on the same type of handicapping as the above play on Orlando and Detroit. In Game 1 of this series New Orleans was able to wear the Spurs down in the second half and come away with a easy victory. In examining the stats from that game you will see some disparities from the performances during the regular season. The first one was that the teams combined to hoist up 41 three point shots attempted while during the regular season they attempted 27, 39, 39 & 30. The difference is not that great however the difference of shots made was large as the teams made 16 three point shots in Game 1 compared to making only 5, 14, 9 & 8 during the regular season. The shots attempted for the game were right on par for what they averaged during the regular season so you have to figure that the three point disparity will go closer to the mean average for the season. The teams also combined to shoot the most free throws out of any game this year as well in Game 1 so that total should come down as well. San Antonio was 35-51 so far this year in games going Under the total and I look for another low scoring game here tonight.
Detroit +1.11 (3 Unit Play)
This game is on ESPN tonight and I like the Tigers as underdogs here at home. They are off of a tough loss yesterday as they took a 6 run lead in the first inning and then went to sleep and lost 7-6 to the Twins. They will hand the ball to Jeremy Bonderman who has pitched pretty well so far this year as he has a 3.86 ERA in 35 innings pitched but his walk to strikeout ratio is not that great. However the Tigers are a very patient team at the plate and are taking on Matsuzaka for the Red Sox who although pitching very well thus far this year has been plagued by high pitch counts throughout the season. I think the Tigers will be patient at the plate and make Matsuzaka work tonight. Matsuzaka has three starts against the Tigers and has went 2-1 in those starts but Bonderman has met the Red Sox quite a bit in his career and in his last 10 starts the Tigers have went 6-4 in those games. I like Detroit in the opener here tonight.
GAMBLERS WORLD
TIP OF THE DAY
San Antonio Spurs vs. New Orleans Hornets
Prediction: New Orleans Hornets
Current Line: -3 Over/Under: 182 Reason: The fans at New Orleans Arena will be treated to a playoff game between the San Antonio Spurs and the New Orleans Hornets when they take their seats on Monday. Oddsmakers currently have the Hornets listed as 3-point favorites versus the Spurs, while the game's total is sitting at 182. The Hornets dominated the first half and defeated the Spurs 101-82 on Saturday night in Game 1 of their Western Conference second-round series. The Hornets won the game as 3-point favorites, while the 183 points fell UNDER the posted total of 183.5. David West led the way with 30 points and nine rebounds. Peja Stojakovic tossed in 22 points in the win. Manu Ginobili led the Spurs with 19 points, six rebounds and seven assists. Team records: San Antonio: 56-26 SU, 38-44 ATS New Orleans: 56-26 SU, 50-31-1 ATS San Antonio most recently: When playing on Monday are 7-3 Before playing New Orleans are 8-2 After playing New Orleans are 7-3 After a loss are 6-4 New Orleans most recently: When playing on Monday are 6-4 Before playing San Antonio are 5-5 After playing San Antonio are 6-4 After a win are 6-4 A few trends to consider: The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games on the road The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Antonio's last 9 games San Antonio is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games when playing New Orleans San Antonio is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home New Orleans is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games New Orleans is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games at home The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games at hom
Ferringo
2-Unit Play. Take #961 Chicago White Sox (+100) over Toronto
1-Unit Play. Take #963 Los Angeles Angels (-150) over Kansas City
1-Unit Play. Take #958 Los Angeles Dodgers (-120) over New York Mets
1-Unit Play. Take #959 Boston (-105) over Detroit
Cash & Profit Experts
BA
Spurs/Hornets Over 182 (pod)
MLB
WSox +107 (comp)
BaseballTotals
Texas/Seattle Over 8.5
GAMEDAY SPORTS NETWORK
Boston/Detroit Over 9
SportsAction365
St Louis/Colorado Over 10
NATIONAL SPORTS ADVISORS
Cubs
LEE KOSTROSKI
GAME: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners
PICK: Texas Rangers
Texas has matched Seattles record as these teams have gone in opposite directions in the last week. After a terrible start to the season Texas has gone 6-3 in the last nine games and the offensive production has been boosted with a .271 team average in the past ten games and 5.3 runs scored per game. Seattle has lost five straight games, failing to top three runs scored in any of those outing and the Mariners have hit just .226 against right handed pitching in the last ten games.
As has been the case since signing with the Rangers, Kevin Millwood has posted much better numbers away from home. Millwood owns a 1.80 ERA on the road this season and the Rangers have won each of his last two starts despite marginal numbers from the veteran right-hander. The Texas bullpen has been a big disappointment after solid success last season but Seattles relievers have struggled just as much.
Jarrod Washburn has allowed twelve runs in his last three starts and Seattle is 1-5 in his starts this season. Texas went 3-0 in games facing Washburn last season and the Rangers will benefit from having faced a left-handed starter in yesterday?s game. Although Seattle is playing at home tonight they are actually in a much tougher travel situation having played in New York over the weekend. Cross country travel following big games at Yankee Stadium makes for a letdown against a dangerous Texas team that is starting to put it all together.
Drew Gordon
DETROIT PISTONS -6
There's three things we learned from Game 1 of this series, but let's start with the most obvious: The Pistons are not going to allow the Magic to beat them from the 3-point line, plain and simple. They contested almost every shot that came from behind the arc, forcing the Magic to go just 2 of 15 from long range, and virtually shutting down Orlando's vaunted inside/out attack. That brings me to my second point: The Pistons are going to use multiple bodies and mulitiple looks to slow down manchild Dwight Howard. After ripping through the tissue paper soft Raptors frontline, Howard found it much tougher going in against Detroit, scoring just 12 points and grabbing 8 boards... A big drop off from his 22 ppg and 18 rpg averages against Toronto! Wallace, Mcdyess, Maxiell, and Ratliff all played integral parts in slowing Howard, and they'll do it again tonight. The fact Howard went 2 of 7 from the line may also be key, as the Pistons will not hesitate to foul him with their frontcourt depth. Finally, as a third point: Have you noticed how well the Pistons are playing since the Second Half of Game 4 against the 76ers! Yes, they looked disinterested against Philly, but once they "flipped the switch," there's no better team in the East (except maybe for Boston). Sorry Orlando-backers, but you're not going to waltz into the Palace, and just chuck up 3-pointers and expect to win... That might work on friendlier rims against a less motivated opponent, but right now, the Pistons are out for blood and playing like it! Take Detroit over Orlando in Game 2 of this Eastern Conference Semifinals series.
Wunderdog
DETROIT PISTONS -6
Detroit seems to be back. They faltered against Philadelphia early as their "going through the motions" proved not to be enough. After getting down 2-1 to the Sixers, they have won four straight by an average score of 96 to 79. Now that's what we call defense. Do they let up here after a big win in game one? No way! Doing that would give away home court advantage again and the taste of that is still too fresh. As we predicted in game one, the Pistons defense stifled the Magic and Dwight Howard wasn't a huge factor. He dominated against the Raptors, but against the Pistons, he's being reduced in stature. And if it weren't already enough, Howard injured his thumb in game one. Orlando's lack of ability to pressure Detroit is going to be their downfall. They averaged just six steals per game in the regular season and got only five last game. Detroit is 19-10 ATS this season vs. low-pressure teams that average under eight steals per game. Orlando is 10-26 ATS in their last 36 games following two straight games with under six steals. Detroit is now 29-15 ATS as a home favorite this season and 18-5 ATS after two straight pointspread covers as a favorite. They are 22-10 ATS after allowing 85 points or less including a perfect 10-0 ATS after allowing 85 or less in two straight games. This is a bad matchup for an overmatched Orlando club as long as Detroit shows up. We think based on what happened vs. Philly they will again show up tonight.
ohn Ryan
Game: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Chicago Cubs
Reason: Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Chicago Cubs ? Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 54-20 for 73% and has made 30.3 units since 1997. Play on NL road teams that are good offensive teams scoring >=5.0 runs/game and is now facing a below average starter sporting an ERA= 5.20 to 5.70 and with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better on the season. Ryan Dempster is pitching quite well sporting a season ERA of 3.16 with an accompanying 1.108 WHIP. In two road starts he sports a 1.29 ERA and a 0.714 WHIP. Cueto is NOT pitching well sporting a 7.47 ERA and also a 6.43 ERA (0-3 record) versus divisional opponents. Take the Reds.
MATT RIVERS
For Monday take the Cubbies in Cincinnati
Right now Dusty Baker's Reds are a joke! These guys were just swept badly in Atlanta and look like a total bottomfeeder. They have Johnny Cueto on the mound who appeared to be a budding superstar a few starts into his big league career but the guy has done a complete 180 ever since and has been atrocious of late.
Ryan Dempster is neevr a guy that I can completely trust but he does have a very good sinker when on and it has been on for most of the season. The righty has been a great surprise for Lou's boys this season and is not a bad hurler to have on the bump at the Great American Ballpark. This field is a total hitter's paradise and if a guy can keep the ball on the ground he has a much better chance to be successful. Just ask Eric Milton about this as the guy went from an All-Star to a complete mess with the Reds because he is a flyball pitcher and that just did not mesh with the park.
The only issue we could have is if Cueto regains that early magic touch. I'll give him a 15% chance of that at the very very best.
All in all Chicago is the far superior team and especially so now with the Reds struggles. Lee, Ramirez, Fukudome, Soriano and these visitors at this price is a total steal!
Winning Points Online
LA DODGERS (Billingsley) -125 over NY METS (Oliver Perez)
The Dodgers had their winning streak snapped at Coors Field yesterday, but they have been playing some of the best baseball in either league lately(8-2, +$580 with 7.6 runs per game). They come home to take on Oliver Perez, whose numbers in his last two starts were pretty bad (8.61 ERA).LA has been punishing left handers this year(7-3, +$410 with 7.3 runs per game) and New York checks in here with a 3-7 (-$565) recordvs. right handers in road games. Joe Torre saw plenty of the Mets in NYC, and his team is well poised for a victory in tonight's series opener.
**PREFERRED
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati OVER 9
Ryan Dempster of the Cubs is 4-0. Whoop-dee-damn do. With 19, 13 and 9 runs worth of support, anybody can go out there and win some games. Dempster's current WHIP of 1.11 is too good to last, as is the Batting Average Against of 1.73. In this hitter's ballpark, against a lineup with a .415 On-Base Percentage against him in 110 at-bats, it's a good time for those numbers to go up. Few pitchers with 19-22 BB-K ratios stay unhittable. On the other side, Reds' starter Johnny Cueto has 6-33 BB-K. That's nice. But if he's going to be coming in there with it, the Cubs can just sit on his fastball and take it downtown. Cueto is facing the NL's top Batting Average and On-Base Percentage lineup.
NBA
Detroit* over Orlando by 14
The Magic can't match Detroit's muscle and their finesse can't win out against Detroit's muscle. If they're looking for a break, they can wait until Game 3 for home-friendly officiating to maybe throw them a lifeline. DETROIT, 100-86.
FRANK ROSENTHAL
NBA PLAYOFFS
CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS
710 PISTONS-6 SB+
OVER 184 SB+
712 HORNETS-2 SB
UNDER 183 SB+
MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL
951 CUBS OVER 9 SB+
956 DBACKS-155 SB
957 NYM UNDER 9 SB+
964 ROYALS UNDER 9.5 SB+
967 RANGERS+120 SB
Mr. A's
Detroit Pistons - 6½
New Orleans Hornets - 3