JeffMoney
Cards -110 (pod)
Twins +130
Yanks -110
Braves (g1) -135
Mariners Un 8.5, -110
GamblersWorld
TIP OF THE DAY
Boston Celtics vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers
Current Line: -7 Over/Under: 185.5 Reason: The Boston Celtics and the Cleveland Cavaliers will both be trying to pick up a win on Monday night when they battle at Quicken Loans Arena in Game 4 of their second-round playoff series. Oddsmakers currently have the Cavaliers listed as 7-point favorites versus the Celtics, while the game's total is sitting at 185½. The Cavaliers got back into this set with a 108-84 win over the Celtics in Game 3 on Saturday; they now trail 2-1 in the series. The Cavaliers easily covered the 2-point spread at Quicken Loans Arena, while the 192 points sailed OVER the posted total of 179. Delonte West had 21 points with five rebounds and seven assists to lead the Cavaliers. LeBron James also had 21 points in the victory. Kevin Garnett tossed in 17 points and hauled down nine rebounds in a losing effort for the Celtics. Team records: Boston: 66-16 SU, 52-28-2 ATS Cleveland: 45-37 SU, 37-45 ATS Boston most recently: When playing on Monday are 7-3 Before playing Cleveland are 8-2 After playing Cleveland are 7-3 After a loss are 6-4 Cleveland most recently: When playing on Monday are 2-8 Before playing Boston are 6-4 After playing Boston are 6-4 After a win are 3-7 A few trends to consider: The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games on the road Boston is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games Boston is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games on the road Boston is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 games Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Boston The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Cleveland's last 18 games at home Cleveland is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games at home The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Cleveland's last 15 games
SportsKingz
MLB
YANKEES -115
ST. LOUIS -120
HOUSTON -150
TEXAS EV
CLEVELAND -165 GM#2
NBA
BOSTON +2.5
Frank Rosenthal
NBA Playoffs
Conference Semifinals
515 Celtics+2.5 Sb+
Over 181 Sb
Major League Baseball
904 Nym-155 Sb
906 Reds-165 Sb
913 Bosox-135 Sb
917 Yanks-110 Sb
PlusLineSports
Chicago Cubs -1.5
Las Vegas Sports Pics
Boston Celtics + 2
PRIORITY SPORTS INFO
Chicago Cubs -200
Kosmo
Pittsburgh GM 1 +125 1 unit
Pittsburgh GM 2 +150 1 unit
Cubs -180 1 unit
St. Louis -110 1 unit
Lance's Lock
Cavs -2
2-Minute Warning
Boston Celtics
ROSS BENJAMIN
Boston (Buchholz) @ Minnesota (Hernandez)
Play On: Minnesota +120
The Twins starting pitcher Livan Hernandez has been money as an underdog this season going 7-1 in his team starts in that role. Hernandez is 16-5 in his last 21 team starts as a home underdog. Hernandez is 6-0 in his team starts at night in 2008 with a stellar 2.36 ERA. The Twins as a team are 6-1 in the last 7 as a home underdog and have won 9 of the last 10 overall. Minnesota has dominated Boston at home in recent times winning 10 of the last 14 meetings underneath the dome. The Red Sox starting pitcher Buchholz is 0-4 in his team starts on the road this season with a very lofty 7.40 ERA. Like a lot of young pitchers he fares a lot better at home and has been very shaky to say the least on the road. Play on the Minnesota Twins.
John Ryan
Game: Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers
Prediction: Boston Celtics
Reason: Ai Simulator 5* graded play on Boston – This will be a far different game then the last one. AiS shows an 85% probability that Boston will win this game; that Cleveland will not shoot 42% or better from the floor. Note that Boston is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in road games when their opponents make 39% to 42% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons. Also, a near 90% probability that Cleveland will have at least 13 turnovers. Note that Cleveland is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in home games in games where they commit 13 to 17 turnovers this season. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 75-41 ATS for 65% since 1996. Play on road teams that are good free throw shooting teams hitting 76-79% and is now facing a poor free throw shooting team hitting 69-72% and in a game involving two good ball handling teams committing <=14.5 TOPG. Cleveland is not and has not played an aggressive style of defense and this plays into Boston’s strengths. Boston is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game in the 2nd half of the season this season. The posted total of 181 also puts Boston into a very strong role noting they are 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 180 and 184.5 points over the last 2 seasons; also 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games after scoring 85 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Take Boston.
EZWINNERS EVENING
MLB
3 STAR PARLAY: (918) ATLANTA (-$160) and (911) HOUSTON (-$142)
(Listing Hudson and Oswalt)
(Risking $300 to win $530)
2 STAR: (922) LA ANGELS (-$105) over Chicago
(Action)
(Risking $210 to win $200)
1 STAR: (903) WASHINGTON (+$144) over NY Mets
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $144)
1 STAR: (905) FLORIDA (+$162) over Cincinnati
(Action)
(Risking $101 to win $162)
1 STAR: (918) TAMPA BAY (-$101) over NY Yankees
(Listing Garza and Pettitte)
(Risking $101 to win $100)
NBA
1 STAR: (515) BOSTON (+2) over Cleveland
(Risking $110 to win $100)
Dr. Bob
NBA
4 Star Selection
Boston (+2) over CLEVELAND
Boston has now lost 4 consecutive road games in the playoffs, but that doesn’t mean that the Celtics suddenly can’t win on the road. Boston still has a better road record than the Cavaliers record in home games and my ratings favor the Celtics by 1 point in this game. Boston also applies to a very good 27-4 ATS game 4 situation in addition to a more general 69-29-1 ATS playoff situation. Cleveland is just 14-28 ATS after a pointspread win (5-17 ATS recently), so I don’t expect them to play their best tonight. I’ll take Boston in a 4-Star Best Bet at +2 or more and for 3-Stars from +1 ½ to -1 (2- Stars at -1 ½ or -2).4-Stars at +2 or more, 3-Stars from +1 1/2 to -1, 2-Stars to -2.
DOC'S
4 Unit Play. Take Under 117½ in Philadelphia @ Georgia
The Soul are coming off their first loss of the season and it will be interesting to see how they respond given the rash of injuries that they are currently saddled with. Georgia still have a defensive minded coach in Doug Plank and the Soul have given up more the fifty points just six times in their last ten games. With WR Chris Jackson set to make his return to Georgia, you can bet that the Force defense is going to want to put a hurt on him, even if it comes after the whistle.
MONEYLOCKOFTHEDAY
Junior - Indians........game 2 w/Cliff Lee
Digger - Seattle/Texas Under 9
Ben Burns
Game: San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs
Prediction: Chicago Cubs
Reason: The Cubs have been great at home thise season and they figure to have a major advantage this evening. Zambrano has a 0.45 ERA his last three starts. Wolf has a 6.45 ERA his last three. Zambrano is 4-1 with a 1.94 ERA in seven starts against the Padres. In his last three starts against them, he has allowed one run in 23 innings. Wolf, on the other hand, is 2-5 with a 4.35 ERA in 12 starts vs. Chicago. Wolf will be support by a lineup which averages 3.2 runs per game against right-handers, hitting .236. Zambrano will be supported by a lineup which is hitting .288 against southpaws, averaging 6.6 runs per game and 6.9 overall at home. Consider laying the wood with Zambrano and the Cubs.
LT Profits
Florida Marlins +155
The Florida Marlins just keep on winning, as they have now won seven games in a row, yet they are again a sizable underdog tonight when they visit the Cincinnati Reds.
This time, the odds are more understandable considering that the Reds have Aaron Harang on the mound, but we still like the value on Florida here. Florida starter Burke Badenshop may be nothing special, but he has allowed two and three runs in his last two starts respectively. Sure, he went just six innings in one of those starts and 5.2 innings in the other, but a repeat performance would still be fine with us given that the Marlins bullpen is ranked third in baseball with a 2.95 ERA, making Florida a Bullpen System play.
The Reds may have some trouble offensively facing Badenshop for the first time, as they are hitting a modest .249 vs. right-handed pitchers for the season including a poor .227 over the last 10 games. Thus, this may be just another case of no run support for the unlucky Harang, who is unbelievably 1-5 despite a 3.09 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, and being commonly regarded as one of the best pitchers in the National League.
We look for the Marlins’ good fortune to continue at a very nice price tonight.
Pick: Marlins +155
Chicago White Sox -105
The short-handed Los Angeles Angels have now lost four straight games after getting swept by the Tampa Bay Rays this past weekend, and we now look for the Chicago White Sox to take advantage of the Halos.
The White Sox had a three-game winnings streak snapped in Seattle, but they are still 4-2 in their last six games. The erratic Mark Buehrle takes this start tonight, and he is just as capable of tossing a shutout as he is of getting bombed. He appeared to have turned the corner with two straight Quality Starts, but he was then hit hard by the Minnesota Twins last tine out.
However, should Buehrle be in need of a quick hook, it is reassuring to know that the Sox have now moved up to ninth in the Major Leagues in bullpen ERA at 3.42, and that makes them a Bullpen System play vs. an Angles team whose bullpen ranks 29th and second to last with a 4.88 ERA. The Bullpen System is now 26-22, +5.04 units so far this season after averaging over 97 units over the last three years.
The Angels are still without Howie Kendrick, Chone Figgins and Maicer Itzuris, and this has obviously affected the offense. In fact, they have been shut out in each of the first two games at Tampa before scoring five runs in another loss yesterday. Besides a struggling offense and a struggling bullpen, Los Angeles is staring Nick Adenhart tonight, who has lasted a grand total of 6.1 innings in two starts while surrendering eight earned runs and a whopping 19 baserunners. That translates to a disgusting 11.37 ERA and 3.00 WHIP!
Just about the only thing in the Angels’ favor here is that they are home, but we do not think that will be enough to overcome all the other obstacles tonight.
Pick: White Sox -105
Bob Akmens
Minnesota Twins +130
This play is the result of a successful computer model that has allowed Bob Akmens Sports to finish in first-place in 162 different categories of documented monitored handicapping contests since 1978.
The computer models I’ve developed for each sport look at the most-predictive variables that go into the winning and losing of games.
Several interesting factors in today’s play are as follows (ATS = against-the-spread) –
Once again, the Red Sox & Clay Buchholz have been made a road-favorite – in this case, the line opened at about -136 and can be found as high at about -146.
This game perfectly illustrates the dichotomy between perception and reality. Always remember that lines are not accurate reflections of who is better than whom.
If that were the case, favorites would win disproportionately, wouldn’t they?
Lines are created to do one thing only: to split betting dollars as equally as is possible.
Because, after all, that’s the ideal situation for any bookmaker – to get approximately the same amount of money on each side of the equation. As crazy as this sounds to some of you, bookmakers are not gamblers and don’t like to take needless risks if they can avoid them.
The perception (at least the one that the sharp linemaker perceives) is that the public believes the Bosox are the better team than the Twins. Well, their respective overall records bear that out: 24-16 compared to 19-17.
But realize also that the general public just doesn’t delve into matters very deeply. So if you look below the surface of that perception, you see it’s flawed in this game.
Why? First of all, look at the Bosox road record. It’s a losing record at 10-11. And the Twinkies at home? A stellar 13-7 record. You can see right away that there’s a major flaw in this Boston -140 line. The only way the Red Sox should be favored by anything at all is if the respective pitchers are over- and under-achievers with respect to their club’s home/away W-L records.
Meaning, the only way to support a -140 price on Boston is if Buchholz is a very solid road performer and Livan Hernandez is a sub-par home performer.
Is that the case? Nothing could be further from the reality here.
Buchholz has made 5 starts on the road in the bigs – and the Red Sox have lost every single one of them – all as favorites. Matter of fact, had you bet to win $1000 on every one of Buchholz’s road starts, you would be down a nifty -$6150. On the other side, Livan Hernandez and his team have won 7 of his last 10 starts at home. And had you bet to win a dime in those 10 home starts, you’d be up a nice +$5400.
So – who should be the favorite and who should be the dog?
The play may not win – but in my view, there’s no value at all going with Boston in this one.
Most good handicappers look at things this way. To make more money betting, sometimes you have to try to avoid doing the obvious.
Go with the TWINS as a +130 dog in this 7:05 PM ET ESPN matchup
John Ryan
Game: Washington Nationals at New York Mets
Prediction: Washington Nationals
Reason: Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Nationals ? Met?s starter Figueroa is struggling to say the least sporting a 6.46 ERA and a 2.218 WHIP over his last 3 starts. He has yielded 22 hits, 12 BB, and recorded just 8K in 15.3 innings. His Whip simply implies that on average there are better than 2 base runners in every inning pitched. Washington has been strong against good base stealing teams. They are 13-8 (+12.8 Units) against the money line in road games versus good base running teams averaging 0.85 or more SB's/game over the last 3 seasons. Skipper Manny Acta is 9-4 +7.1 units made when facing a NL starter with an ERA between 4.70 and 5.20. Odalis Perez is on the hill for the Nationals and he is a strong vastly under rated starter. For the season he has a 3.43 ERA and has allowed a 249 BA. He is dominating against LH batters allowing a 191 BA. Perez has a very good change that he is not hesitant to throw when behind in the count. 26% of the time he will throw the change when behind in the count. This forces hitters NOT to sit on his fastball. Like so many other MLB pitchers he works low away to both LH and RH hitters. Take the Nationals.