Oscarxena Sports
Detroit -6 -1.09 (4 Unit Play)
I hate making this play as I am a big Celtics fan but Boston will be very hard pressed to match it's performance in Game Three here tonight. I am not saying that Boston won't come here tonight and try to win to go up 3-1 but I get the feeling that they used a tremendous amount of energy in winning Game Three and may not have much left for tonight's game in Detroit. They received contributions from players that have not been doing much in the playoffs last game and you have to wonder if they will match that determination tonight. Meanwhile the Pistons were booed by their home fans last game and probably played one of their most lackluster games of the playoffs last game and did not seem to get into the game into there was just 6 minutes left in the fourth quarter. I expect them to come out tonight dominant because if they drop this game the series and their season is effectively over. Detroit has went 8-0 ATS this year as a home favorite off an upset loss as a favorite winning those games by a total of 15.3 PPG and although I am a Celtic fan I am more of fan of money and the Pistons are the right side here tonight.
Wunderdog
New York Yankees at Baltimore
Pick: Baltimore +127
Baltimore has been better than advertised. While the Yankees have been winning at home, they now take to the road where they have been highly suspect. The Yankees have had their troubles in Baltimore where they have been 5-7 in their last 12 allowing 70 runs in the 12 games or almost six runs per game. Rasner has given them more than they could have expected, but will be tested on the road against an O's team that plays their best against the Yankees. Certainly they have been getting it done at home, where they have won four of their last five. We like the O's in a dog role at home.
Larry Ness
Today's Pick: CLEVELAND INDIANS
Before losing 13-9 on Friday to the Rangers, the Indians had scored a measly 26 runs in their previous 11 games and after winning Saturday, fell right back into that scoring drought yesterday. The White Sox didn't actually "rip the cover off the ball" this past weekend, as they lost 3-1 Friday and 2-0 on Saturday, before last's night's dramatic win. We could (should?) see a low-scoring game again tonight, as Javier Vazquez faces Paul Byrd. Vazquez has followed last year's solid season (15-8, 3.74 ERA) with a solid start to '08, going 5-3 with a 3.43 ERA (team is 6-3 in his 10 starts / one game was suspended). He just beat Byrd and Cleveland 7-2 last Wednesday in Chicago, going seven innings while allowing four hits and two ERs. Byrd was not sharp in that game (5.1 IP / 5 hits / 5 ERs) but that's been his trend this year. He's been terrible on the road, going 0-4 with a 6.93 ERA in five starts (team is 0-5). However, he's 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA in four home starts (team is 3-1). I'm going to back the Indians in this quick turnaround pitching matchup, considering Byrd's strong home performances this year. The Indians are struggling at the plate but he White Sox just finished a three-game set with the Angels in which they went 1-of-13 with RISP, so I'll take the home team. Take Cleveland.
Info Plays
3* on Baltimore Orioles +130
The line on this game is so steep against the Orioles since Darrell Rasner has gotten off to such a hot start and Garrett Olson has found himself in a rut. Olsen has pitched well at home though giving up only 5 ER in 12 innings, leading Baltimore to wins in both of those starts. Rasner just faced Baltimore in his last start, and I have a feeling the Oriole hitters are going to do a little better job putting the ball in play the second time around.
Michael Cannon
15 Dime –
PISTONS
Lay the points with the Pistons tonight in Game 4 over the Celtics.
Sure Boston delivered with the road win in Game 3 and took back home court advantage in the process.
But all that did was put Detroit in a must win situation tonight, and I like them to deliver at the Palace.
The Pistons are capable of playing lock down defense on anybody and with their backs against the wall I’ll gladly lay this number here.
Even with the win in Game 3, the Celtics are still just 2-6 ATS in their last eight overall. Boston is also just 2-6 ATS on one day of rest, 1-6 ATS on the road and 0-5 ATS following an ATS win.
The Pistons are 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games overall and 12-6 ATS in their last 18 going back to the regular season. They are 6-2 ATS on one day of rest and 5-2 ATS as a chalk.
I like Detroit to bounce back here tonight so lay the points as they deliver the win and cover over the Celtics.
10 Dime –
MARLINS (With Nolasco as listed pitcher)
Take the Marlins as the road dog tonight over the Mets.
I don’t really understand this price, but I’ll gladly take it.
The Mets have been playing horrible baseball lately, going 4-9 over their last 13 and they trail the first-place Marlins by 5 ½ games.
Mike Pelfrey will start for the Mets and he has lost his last five starts, posting a 6.11 ERA and a .339 opponent batting average in that span.
The Marlins will counter with Ricky Nolasco, who is 2-0 with a 2.04 ERA over his last three starts.
Take Florida at the plus return for the road win tonight.
Indian Cowboy
Boston Red Sox UNDER 8.5 (POD)
Boston Celtics +6 (Reg)
Ultimate Sports
Regular: Mil. Under 8.5
Top: Chicago Whitesox Under 8.5
Top: Toronto
William Kidd Guaranteed Selections
QUADRUPLE BASEBALL WINNER
Toronto w/Marcum -169
Jeffmoney
Cubs -125 (pod)
D'backs -115
Yanks -135
Alex Smart
MLB 2* Chicago Cubs
AFL 2* New Orleans Voodoo -3
GamblersWorld TIP OF THE DAY
Boston Celtics vs. Detroit Pistons
Prediction: Detroit Pistons
Current Line: -6 Over/Under: 175 Reason: The Boston Celtics and the Detroit Pistons will both be gunning for a playoff victory on Monday when they meet at The Palace of Auburn Hills. Oddsmakers currently have the Pistons listed as 6-point favorites versus the Celtics, while the game's total is sitting at 175. The Celtics took a 2-1 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals on Saturday, as they slipped past the Pistons 94-80. The Celtics won that game as 5-point underdogs, while the combined 174 points fell UNDER the posted total of 176. Kevin Garnett had a double-double with 22 points and 13 rebounds for the Celtics. Ray Allen chipped in with 14 points in the win. Richard Hamilton scored a game-high 26 points in a losing effort for the Pistons. Team records: Boston: 66-16 SU, 52-28-2 ATS Detroit: 59-23 SU, 46-35-1 ATS Boston most recently: When playing on Monday are 5-5 Before playing Detroit are 6-4 After playing Detroit are 4-6 After a win are 5-5 Detroit most recently: When playing on Monday are 7-3 Before playing Boston are 7-3 After playing Boston are 7-3 After a loss are 8-2 A few trends to consider: Boston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Boston's last 7 games when playing Detroit Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing Boston Detroit is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing at home against Boston
Ben Burns
NBA 5* Detroit Pistons
NBA 4* Celtics/Pistons Under 175
Nite Owl Sports
Game: Georgia Force @ New Orleans Voo Doo
3 units (Free Play*) ATS: New Orleans Voo Doo -3
We dont believe in stuff like voodoo and spells, unless its the New Orleans Voodoo in the AFL (Arena FB League), casting a spell on a visiting team on their home field/arena, which is aptly called the Graveyard. While the Voodoo would be a major public team by now if it were playing in a high profile league like the NFL, at 5-0 TY both SU and ATS at home, for an average MOV (margin of victory) of 12 points in those 5 home games, including a 72-43 rout over defending AFL champion San Jose a few weeks ago, they have managed to stay under the radar because there simply is not that much betting interest in the AFL, which is just fine with us. One of the big reasons for Voodoos home success TY is QB Danny Wimprine, who plays like an all star at home but like a wimp on the road, where Voodoo is just 2-4 SU and ATS, including a 27 point whipping visiting this same Georgia team earlier this month. Although the Georgia Force has improved steadily since a rocky start TY, with more off-season personnel turnover than most AFL teams, the Voodoo will be primed for revenge, and will want to strut their stuff tonight in front of a national TV audience on ESPN and a pumped up home crowd that has already gained a reputation as one of the loudest and most supportive TY in the AFL.
Georgia,s big win over New Orleans four weeks ago set the Force off on their current three-game winning streak. By beating New York last week, Georgia moved into the sixth and final playoff spot in the National Conference. New Orleans has lost two in a row (both on the road) and is coming off of its bye week. Both teams still have a chance to win the Southern Division crown but they will have to get by Orlando (8-5), too. The winner of this game will have the inside track to the division title and the first round bye in the playoffs.
The Players
Georgia - Offense - Georgia has been on a roll led by their strong willed QB Chris Greisen. No lead is safe with Greisen driving this team, just ask Philadelphia, who lead Georgia by 21 with < two minutes left and still lost to them. He is playing as well as any QB in the league right now and his refuse to lose attitude makes this a dangerous team, especially as the playoffs get closer. Greisen throws the deep ball as accurately as anyone in the game and the Force has developed an excellent receiver group to go get it. Those receivers are getting better each week and the main target, Troy Bergeron (64 receptions for 882 yards and 17TDs) is one of the best in the AFL. Bergeron is practically uncoverable and has the strength and speed to turn an ordinary play into an extraordinary TD. Tiger Jones (58-799-23 TDs) was a great find and he just keeps getting better each week. Carl Morris (82-939-15 TDs) is the leading receiver, yards wise, and is making the most of his opportunities. This has developed into an awesome group for Greisen to throw to. Defense - Georgia defense has struggled through injuries in the secondary but still has one of the best fronts in the AFL. Ernest Allen is still going strong in his 12th season and holds down the nose. R-Kal Truluck and Jermaine Smith give the Force two game changers at DE. Georgias linebackers have been consistent the entire season and are led by Jack LBer Cam Newton who has three interceptions returned for TDs. Matt Huebner and Will Thompson provide a solid pass rush from the Mac spot. Willie Gary is the middle safety and one of the few DBs for Georgia who has stayed relatively healthy. William Fields and Stephen Cason have been plugged into the corner spots and are getting better each week.
New Orleans Offense - The Voodoo has a pretty good QB of their own in young Danny Wimprine, who has a knack for making plays, has been fantastic, especially at home, since taking over for the injured Steve Bellisari in Week 2. He has won the hearts of the home fans and his teammates, making New Orleans a dangerous team, especially at home. He does a great job at protecting the football, too, having thrown only six interceptions and 56 TDs thus far TY, and his numbers and TD/INT ratio are even better at home..The VooDoo also boasts an excellent receiving corps -- James Jordan (72-819-25 TDs) is the leading receiver and big playmaker for the offense, Javarus Dudley (54-799-11 TDs) is a consistent deep threat, and Wendall Williams (30-377-5 TDs) is the big target, who is especially effective in the red zone. New Orleans Defense - Perhaps the strength of the VooDoo is their defense. They lead the AFL in interceptions with 23, six of which have been returned for TDs. Calvin Spears (72.5 tackles, 8 INTs) has been the leader on the field. Lin-J Shell plays the middle and is the leading tackler with 73.0 and he has four picks. Keon Raymond has also thrown in four interceptions. Jack linebacker Norman LeJuene has been a beast with 40 tackles and six interceptions. Henry Bryant is the top pass rusher for the VooDoo with four sacks while fellow DE Michale Spicer also has four. Mac linebacker Umar Muhammad brings an edge and raw intensity to the field. The New Orleans defense is ranked 3rd in the league allowing only 49 points per game.
The Coaches
This will be a good coaching matchup, as New Orleans head man Mike Neu has done a tremendous job this year. He will be matching wits with the defending Coach of the Year in the AFL, Georgias Doug Plank. Both of these coaches are emotional leaders and will have their teams at a fever pitch for this nationally televised battle.
What it will take to Win
Both of these teams have extremely competitive QBs. Whichever one is able to protect the football and make the key plays will have the edge. Both of these QBs can will their team to a win with their competitive desire. That alone should make this one a really fun game to watch.New Orleans will have to find a way to shutdown both Bergeron and Jones. Greisen is so good at finding the right receiver and taking what the defense gives him that it is a tall order to shut down everybody. It also will be important for the VooDoo defense to continue to come up with some takeaways. It will be important for the Force to get off to a quick start to try and neutralize The Graveyard crowd. If they let the VooDoo get going and the fans start rocking it can be an extremely tough place to pull out a comeback.Finally, pass protection will be vital. Both teams have and excellent pass rush that can wreak havoc on their opponents offense. Pass protection, including mixing in some screens and runs will be huge in this one. The team that finds a way to keep their QB upright will have a big edge in this one. This is a critical game for each team as it could well determine the winner in the Southern Division. With having Georgia won the first match-up by 27 points, look for the VooDoo to try and pour it on regardless of the score, as the margin of victory is a playoff tiebreaker consideration if they split the series.
While 3 points is not much to cover, assuming a SU win by the fave, we also like the Voodoo for another three units (to win two units) on the money line at - 147, which our regular clients know does not mean that we lack confidence in our ATS pick, but rather is a typical betting strategy of ours (to bet small faves both ATS and on the $ line as long as ML price is reasonable, as it is here). So take the Voodoo for 3 units ATS at -3 and 3 units on money line at -150 or better. If you can't get them at -3 ATS, then make it two units at -3.5 and 4 units money line.
Winners Inc. Guaranteed Selections
5000* BASEBALL HOME RUN WINNER
Atlanta w/Jurrjens +110
Vegas-Runner
ATL (+100) vs ARI 1* ML WAGER