Vegas-Runner
ATL (+100) vs ARI 1* ML WAGER
FLA (+118) vs NYM 2* ML WAGER
DET (+112) vs ANA 2* ML WAGER
Chris Jordan
600* DEVIL RAYS RUN LINE - We lay the run and a half with Tampa Bay in this one, as Scott Kazmir has been brilliant his last three starts, beating a trio of A.L. contenders – the Angels, Yankees and Athletics – while helping the Devil Rays maintain their status atop the A.L. East. The veteran southpaw is 2-0 at home with a perfect 0.00 ERA at Tropicana Field, while he’s shown us the disabled list did nothing to alter his effectiveness on the hill. Against these Rangers he is 1-0 with a 2.05 ERA in four games against them, while he’s allowed a mere two runs in 16 innings of work when hosting them. The D Rays have won 18 of 26 at home this season; and while they’ve been at home winning three straight over AL East-rival Baltimore, the Rangers have been on the road since May 19 and will now play their eighth road game in as many days after visiting the Twin Cities and Cleveland. Sure, it was somewhat successful, as the Rangers won four of their last five, but they’ll be too tired for this opener against Tampa’s ace.
300* CELTICS - The Celtics took back home-court advantage with the outright win in Game 3, now they can maintain the momentum before returning home for Game 5, and quite possibly get back to Beantown with a chance to advance to the NBA Finals with a series-clinching win. First things first, however, as the C’s will be looking to win this one outright and will utilize the same game plan they used two nights ago to steal the third game in this series. Leading the charge will be the same person who has been stellar against the Pistons all season when these two have met – Kevin Garnett. The offseason acquisition gone good has put up solid numbers in this clash, scoring 26 and 31 in the regular season, and 26, 24 and 22 in the first three games of this series. Look for the Big Ticket to come through, and the Celtics to keep it close long enough to strike late for a possible outright victory.
100* RED SOX - Rule of thumb is to always look to play against a team returning home from an opposite-coast road trip, especially if its first game back is on 0 days rest. Such is the case after the M’s shot out to Motown and the Bronx, and return to the Emerald City after losing all six games to the Tigers and the Yankees. Yesterday’s tough-luck loss to the Bombers will certainly have this team deflated, as it took a four-run, eighth-inning rally for New York to escape with the win. Seattle’s punchless offense was outscored 61-27 during its six-game skid, and now it’s supposedly laying money to the defending World Series champs, who have been on the West Coast since arriving in Oakland on May 23. I know the trip wasn’t as successful as the champs might have hoped, but this is the perfect opportunity to right the ship during this 10-game road trip. The M’s have lost 23 of their last 30, and will be outclassed tonight against the boys from Beantown.
LT Profits
Milwaukee Brewers @ Washington Nationals Under 8.0
The Milwaukee Brewers and Washington Nationals combined for 13 runs in the Nats’ 7-6 extra-inning win yesterday, but don’t expect similar fireworks in today’s holiday matinee.
Ben Sheets is off to a 5-1 start for Milwaukee, and that does not tell the whole story, as he has actually been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year. Sheets has a 2.92 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 61.2 innings, and he is holding the opposition to a tiny .263 On Base Percentage. He should be dominant here vs. a Washington lineup that is hitting a pathetic .232 vs. right-handed pitchers this season including an even more dismal .222 over the last 10 games.
Sheets’ biggest obstacle to another victory here though may be run support. The Brewers are batting a modest .241 vs. right-handed pitching on the road this year, and Nationals starter Jason Bergmann is in raging current form. Bergmann has tossed 14 scoreless innings in his last two starts while allowing a grand total of eight hits with 14 strikeouts. He also tossed a gem in his only start vs. Milwaukee last season, permitting only one run and two hits in six innings.
Thus, the Under is the way to go here as we expect both offenses to scramble for runs.
Pick: Brewers, Nationals Under 8
Chicago White Sox -110
Javier Vazquez is quietly having a very fine season for the Chicago White Sox, and they get the call over Paul Byrd and the Cleveland Indians in Cleveland tonight.
Vazquez has a 3.53 ERA and an excellent 1.17 WHIP in 10 starts covering 65.2 innings. He has seven Quality Starts and he allowed only four runs in two of the non-quality efforts, and he is averaging just about one strikeout per inning with 65 punch-outs against just 13 walks, a nice 5/1 ratio.
Vazquez should also be familiar with the Cleveland lineup having faced the Tribe five times since the start of last season, and he allowed three earned runs in four of those outings. As if that is not enough, the White Sox also rank ninth in the Major Leagues in bullpen ERA at 3.29, making them a Bullpen System play here.
You just never know what you will get from the inconsistent Byrd, who has just two Quality Starts in his last five outings but did not allow a single run in 15 innings in the two quality outings. We are looking for the “bad” Byrd to show up again today after he allowed five earned runs in 5.1 innings vs. this same White Sox lineup last Wednesday.
Finally, these two teams are simply heading in opposite directions, as Chicago has won nine of their last 11 games while Cleveland is only 1-8 in their last nine contests. Look for both of those streaks to continue.
Pick: White Sox -110
Alex Smart
Boston Red Sox -105
Bortolo Colon (1-0, 3.60 ERA)the Boston Red Sox starting pitcher for this tilt against the Seattle Mariners is top form at the moment. The big righty may not be as strong he was during the best years of his career, but is still a capable hurler . He has pitched well in the past in SAFECO Field as is evident by a 8-1 record along with a stingy 2.17 ERA , and I expect he will do just enough tonight to keep his team in this game, against a offense, that is averaging just 4.1 RPG on the season via a team BA barely above the .250 Mendoza line. Final notes & Key Trends: Boston has won 21 of 25 games against a below .500 team this season. The Mariners starter 22 year old Felix Hernandez has not won since April 16. Play on Boston
Tony Karpinski
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies bats came alive in Houston, Jamie Moyer will start he has won two straight for these Phillies and pitched 6 scoreless in his last outing. The Colorado Rockies have the third worst record in the majors. Jorge DeLaRosa gets the start, he has not seen the sixth inning in any of his starts 1 - 2 with a hefty 7.78 ERA. The Rockies took two out of three from the Mets at home but paid a big price in injurys. The team that came in here and knocked the Phillies out of the playoffs will not be present. Atkins, Barmes, Hawpe, Holliday & Tulowitzki are on the shelf for Colorado to name a few. Sweet revenge for the Philly faithful Monday.
Scott Rickenbach
MLB 1* (regular play) OVER the total in NY Mets vs Florida
The Mets and Marlins both send struggling hurlers to the mound this evening. The only thing that was going to keep us off of this game was the rain moving into the area but most of that is expected to hold off until Tuesday morning so we should be okay here weatherwise. Match-up wise we definitely appear to be okay. Each of these hurlers has more walks than strikeouts so far this season and that right there tells you a lot about the quality (or lack of) for these two pitchers.
Mike Pelfrey gets the start for the Mets and he has allowed four earned runs or more in four of his last six starts! He has a 2-5 record on the season and he’s actually somewhat lucky that his ERA is only a 5.00 and we say this because the guy is getting hammered at .324 clip so far this season. Pelfrey has trouble recording outs to say the least and this really should come as no surprise to the Mets management. Since coming to the bigs, and all his seasons have been with the Mets, Pelfrey is now 7-14 with a 5.37 ERA and he’s been hit at a .308 clip. He also has command issues and that’s part of the reason that he has a lofty 1.72 WHIP in his career. In fact, Pelfrey has been up in that range every single season and he’ll be facing a tough Marlins lineup tonight. Florida’s slugging percentage has them ranked #1 out of all 30 teams in MLB.
The only good news for Mets fans tonight is that their club should also enjoy plenty of success at the plate tonight. That’s because New York will be teeing off against Ricky Nolasco whom they’ve absolutely hammered through the years. Nolasco has faced the Mets six times and he’s 1-3 with a 10.80 ERA in those six appearances (four of them starts). Also, Nolasco is getting hit at a .436 clip by the Mets in his career and he’ll be facing hitters up and down New York’s lineup that have “owned him” in his career. The list is endless of Mets hitters that have crushed Nolasco in their appearances against him and this one should quickly see some crooked numbers getting put up on the scoreboard! Play OVER the total in the New York Mets game as a regular selection.
Matt Fargo
Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels
The Angels return home to try to improve upon their 14-11 record in Anaheim. The recent road trip was a good one as they won both series and ended up taking four of the six games. Detroit meanwhile is just 9-15 on the road this season and it has dropped eight of its last nine away from home. The road numbers back up the dismal record as the Tigers are hitting just .246 while the starting pitching has posted a horrendous 5.10 ERA. One of those starters that is contributing to those numbers is Kenny Rogers as he has posted a 7.03 ERA in his six road starts. After putting together three straight quality starts, Rogers has allowed 11 runs covering 9.1 innings over his last two starts. The Angels counter with Jon Garland who has now put together four straight quality starts after struggling to start the season. In six April starts, he had a 5.94 ERA but in the four May starts, that drops to 2.25.Play Los Angeles Angels 1.5 Units
David Malinsky 4*
Brewers @ Nationals (HT)
PICK: First 5 Innings Under
We are not enamored with either of these bullpens right now, particularly after they both had to work long stints on Sunday. But the Ben Sheets/Jason Bergmann portion of this game should develop into quite a pitcher’s duel, and we have outstanding value to take advantage for the early stages of this one.
Sheets brings much better form to the mound than the recent numbers indicate. Two starts back the box score will show that he allowed six runs over 6.1 innings vs. the Dodgers, but that is most misleading - he carried a shutout into the 7th inning, when Ned Yost made the mistake of leaving him in the game too long after he opened that frame poorly. But Sheets rebounded from that hiccup with a complete game win at Pittsburgh in his last outing, a game in which he did not walk a batter. Over his last two “First Half” performances he has allowed only one run, and has not issued a walk. His stuff can dominate a Washington lineup that lacks experience against him , particularly on the first two passes (six of the eight position starters have less than 10 career at-bats against him), and the fact that his control is so good means that nothing is given away. With Ryan Zimmerman sidelined for the Nats today, they are even more hard-pressed to score.
Jason Bergmann has rebounded exactly the way that Washington was hoping for after his early demotion to the Minor Leagues. It was not as though he opened the season all that badly, he was just a little bit off of his game and needed some seasoning to work on his mechanics. In his last three starts before being called back up he allowed only three runs over 21 innings, working a pair of shutouts, and he brought that confidence back to the big league mound on his return. He has worked 14 innings since rejoining the rotation, not allowing a single run, and with a dominating ratio of 14 strikeouts vs. only eight hits allowed. Like Sheets, we can call for him to be sharp on the first two passes through the lineup, with the projected Milwaukee starters having a combined 12 career at-bats against him.
David Chan
Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies
This price has sky-rocketed, but there's still some value to squeeze out of the Phillies. That's how bad things are for the Rockies right now.
With Holliday, Barmes, Tulowitzki, Hawpe and others rounding out Colorado's injury list, you can see how this road trip could present some problems. The Rockies are actually 5-3 over their last eight games, so like I said, there is still value in this line. Catching teams at the start of streaks, whether it be winning or losing, is key in baseball handicapping, and I think we're going against Colorado at the right time here.
The Phillies have won four of their last six and hung 15 runs on the Astros on Sunday. Jamie Moyer is a proven winner on this mound and he'll be going up against a Rockies lineup that has struggled against southpaws, hitting .243 as a team. And of course, that number would be much lower without Holliday and the rest of the walking wounded.
Philadelphia has posted an exceptional 13-4 record in Game 1 of a series this season, including 8-2 following a victory. The Rockies are just 6-11 in series openers. The Phils have already swept a series in Colorado this season, and they'll get off on the right foot in this set on Monday night.
BEN BURNS
MARINERS
Prediction: Seattle Mariners Reason: I'm playing on SEATTLE. The Red Sox begin the new week with a respectable 31-22 record on the season. That record is a result of their exceptional play at home though, where they've won 10 straight and are an impressive 21-5 on the season. They've been a completely different team on the road. Indeed, they just got swept at Oakland and are now 0-7 their past seven road games and a poor 10-17 on the road for the season. Facing an extremely tough pitcher, who has given them trouble in the past, I expect the Red Sox road woes to continue for another day. Felix Hernandez has shaken off a rare tough stretch by delivering back to back quality starts. In each outing, he tossed six complete innings while allowing just two runs. While he did have his Saturday start pushed back, due to soreness in his leg, Hernandez and trainer Rick Griffin are confident that he'll be just fine. Note that in three career starts vs. Boston, Hernandez is 2-0 (Mariners are 3-0, +3.6 units) with a stellar 2.91 ER and 1.015 WHIP, averaging better than seven innings per start. Like the Red Sox, the Mariners have really struggled on the road. They have won two straight and three of four, here at Seattle, though. They've also gone 9-2 their last 11 home meetings with the Red Sox. While Colon has had success at SafeCo, the Mariners did beat him each of the last two times they faced him. Overall, the last three times he faced the Mariners, Colon allowed 28 hits and 13 earned runs in 21 1/3 innings. (That's a 5.48 ERA.) Look for the youngster Hernandez to outduel the veteran Colon as the Mariners begin the week with a much needed victory and improve to 16-5 their last 21 home games played on a Monday. *Annihilator
YANKEES
Prediction: New York Yankees Reason: I'm laying the price with the NEW YORK YANKEES. These pitchers both have excellent records so far this season. Olson is 3-1, Rasner is 3-0. However, while their w/l records are similar, the rest of their stats are not. Rasner has gone a minimum of six innings in each of his starts, most recently going seven. He has a stellar 1.89 ERA and 0.842 WHIP. Conversely, Olson has a 5.19 ERA and 1.615 WHIP. Rasner and Olson's stats are so different, in large part to last week's game at New York, when they squared off against each other. In that contest, Rasner allowed five hits through seven shutout innings, striking out six while walking just one. Olson, on the other hand, allowed eight hits and six runs in just 2 2/3 innings, walking two while only recording one strikeout. To put his stats for that game another way, he's now 0-1 against the Yankees with a 20.22 ERA and 3.745 WHIP! Including last week's loss in the Rasner/Olson matchup, the Orioles have now lost five straight. The Yankees, on the other hand, have won five in a row. Note that four of those five victories came against left-handed starters too, showing that their earlier troubles against southpaws seem to be a thing of the past. Yesterday's victory was of the "momentum-building variety" as the Yankees rallied for four wins in the bottom of the eighth for a 1-run win. Note that the victory brought them to 8-5 in day games on the season. Yesterday's loss was of the "emotionally-draining" or "deflating" variety for the Orioles, as they lost in the bottom of the ninth. That dropped them to 4-13 in their afternoon games this season and an ugly 43-72 (-24.8) since the start of the 2006 season. Look for the Orioles' daytime struggles to continue, as Rasner outpitches Olson for the second time in less than a week and the Yankees improve to 12-6 their last 18 road games played on a Monday.
Teddy June Game Of The Day
Angels
WILD BILL
Arizona -125 (1 unit)
Over 8 1/2 Dodgers-Cubs (4 units)
Rockies +170 (2 units)
Yankees -140 (2 units)
Indians +110 (2 units)
Texas +180 (2 units)
Detroit +115 (1 unit)
Boston +100 (5 units)
NBA
Detroit -5 (5 units)
The Hammer Guaranteed Selections
PRIVATE INVESTORS CLUB MLB MUST GO 2-0 PARLAY
Philadelphia w/Moyer -192
Tampa Bay w/Kazmir -195
Shark System PREMIUM Play!
The Red Sox lost 3 straight to Oakland and now prepare for 3 in Seattle. Boston has not won any of their previous 7 games. Today Bartolo Colon makes his second start for the Sox this season after going five innings against KC on Wednesday. He has faced the Mariners and the Mariners have faced him many times. His stuff is nothing new. However, Felix Hernandez for the Mariners has never lost to Boston and has only given up 3 earned runs in his last 2 starts despite a 0-4 record. His ERA is under 3.30 overall and against Boston he has a 2.91 ERA. Seattle takes this one down behind a strong pitching performance from King Felix.
Josh Dean
Pit/Det UNDER 5.5
Cws/Cle UNDER 8.5
Det/LA UNDER 9.5