Vegas-Runner
DET / BOS Under 176.0 3* NBA BEST BET of the DAY
BOS 6.0 vs DET 2* WAGER **
EZWINNERS
MLB
1 STAR: (904) WASHINGTON (+$128) over Milwaukee
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1 STAR: (911) KANSAS CITY (+$165) over Toronto
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1 STAR: (914) BALTIMORE (+$122) over NY Yankees
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1 STAR: (916) CLEVELAND (-$102) over Chicago
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1 STAR: (922) SEATTLE (-$105) over Boston
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1 STAR: (917) TEXAS (+$180) over Tampa Bay
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1 STAR: (919) DETROIT (+$112) over LA Angels
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NBA
1 STAR: (714) DETROIT (-5) over Boston
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7:35PM Central Time
Wizard of Odds Guaranteed Selections
TOP RATED BASEBALL PLAY OF THE DAY
Detroit w/Rogers +110
BURNS NBA
PISTONS
Game: Boston Celtics vs. Detroit Pistons
Detroit Pistons Reason: I'm laying the points with DETROIT. I successfully backed the road team in the second and third games of this series. However, I expect the home team to get the job done on Memorial Day. While the Celtics managed to win on the road in Game 3, they've still been brutal on the road these playoffs. Including their upset loss in Game 2, the Celtics are also a money-burning 2-7 ATS when they've held a series lead. Conversely, including their win in Game 2, the Pistons are 2-0 SU/ATS when they've been trailing in a playoff series. Prior to this series, the only previous time they were trailing was after the opening game of their opening series vs. the 76ers. As they did in Game 2 of this series, the Pistons responded with one of their best games of these playoffs, jumping off to a 17-point halftime lead and cruising to a lopsided 105-88 victory. Following that game, Detroit's Chauncey Billups commented: "We were focused, really locked in on what we had to do. We got off to a quick start and we never let up. All five starters played good, and we all shot the ball well. That makes us tough." Speaking of Billups, it should be noted that he's banged-up at the moment. However, he's an extremely tough player and is expected to play. Obviously, the Pistons would prefer that Billups be at 100%. However, if he proves unable to go or is forced to play limited minutes, the team has already proven that they can win with Rodney Stuckey filling in for Billups. Note that Stuckey is averaging a healthy 13 points per game in this series. Let's go back to the Pistons Game 2 win over the 76ers for a minute, as Andre Iguodala's post-game comments further emphasize how focused the Pistons have been when they've found themselves trailing: "They were clicking everywhere. Those are the Detroit Pistons that we expect to see." Despite Saturday's loss, the Pistons remain an impressive 15-3 SU and 13-5 ATS their last 18 games on this floor. As they've done each previous time when they've found themselves down in a series, look for them to respond with a big win and cover. *Main Event
UNDER Pistons/Celtics
Game: Boston Celtics vs. Detroit Pistons Under
I'm playing on the Pistons and Celtics to finish UNDER the total. I felt the number was too high for Game 3 and the final score managed to stay below the total. Once again I feel that the total is too high and this time, I'm expecting an even lower final combined score. As you know, these teams are both excellent defnsively, finishing number #1 and number #2 in terms of points allowed. Not surprisingly, they've tended to play low-scoring games when matched up against each other. In fact, including the Game 3 result, the UNDER is a profitable 9-2 the last 11 series meetings, including a 4-1 mark the last five meetings here at Detroit. The Celtics have seen the UNDER go 12-8 the last 20 times they were listed as underdogs, including a 3-0 mark their last three in that role. Including the results in this series, the UNDER is now 14-7-1 since 2006 when they've faced a team which allows 91 or fewer points per game, 4-1 this season. The Celtics saw Game 4 in their series vs. the Hawks slip above the total. However, that was only by a single point. In Game 4 of their second series, they combined with the Cavs for a mere 165 points. The Pistons have seen the UNDER go 2-0 in Game 4 of their previous two matchups. In Game 4 of their opening series, the held the 76ers to 84 points. In Game 4 of their second round series, they held the high-scoring Magic to just 89, at Orlando. Despite a high-scoring Game 2 in this series, the UNDER remains a profitable 20-12 when the Pistons have been trailing in a playoff series. During the same stretch, they've now seen the UNDER go an even better 22-10 when playing in the conference finals. While the numbers seems low at first glance, the Pistons have seen the UNDER go 12-3-1 this season (27-15-2 since 2006!) when playing a game with an over/under line in the 170s, including a 5-1 mark at home this season. I expect another defensive battle tonight. *Blue Chip
Jeffersonsports
NBA
Detroit-6
MLB
Chicago White Sox-105
Florida+122
KB-HOOPS
NBA
5 units Detroit -6
MLB
7 units Atlanta Braves +110
5 units Philadelphia -1.5 +110
4 units Toronto -1.5 +125
The Experts Guaranteed Selections
EASY ULTIMATE EXPERTS BASEBALL CRUSHER
Philadelphia w/Moyer -185
atslocks
Pistons -6 10 Units
Dr. Bob
Monday NBA Analysis
Boston at DETROIT (-6/175)
Detroit applies to a pretty good 135-84-4 ATS bounce-back situation and Detroit is 11-1 ATS this season at home following a loss (the one spread loss was a 16 point win as a 20 ½ point favorite). However, my ratings would favor the Pistons by 3 ½ points under normal circumstances and the line here should be 4 ½ points after adding a point to the team coming off a loss (which is common practice in the playoffs). The line value and the situation cancel each other out in this case and I have no opinion on the side in this game.
My predicted total is 172½ points, so I’ll once again lean with the Under at 174 points or higher and I’ll consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 176 points or higher.