JEFFERSONSPORTS
MONDAY EARLY RELEASE
MILWAUKEE-131
Scott Spreitzer's MLB 2-0 Parlay of the Week! (Includes Mismatch G.O.M.)
I'm laying the price with the Angels on Monday. Jarrod Washburn of Seattle has been struggling badly this season. His ERA for the year is 6.67. It's 6.14 at home even though Seattle plays in a great pitcher's park. In a low scoring year, those numbers stick out dramatically. He's the Matt Morris of the American League but he hasn't been cut! Erwin Santana has an ERA of 3.09 this season, and has the kind of stuff that's perfectly suited to this park, now that he's learned to pitch outside of Anaheim. Santana is showing significant signs that he's rounding into the all-around ace-type hurler that the Angels had hoped he would be. Through his first couple of seasons, Santana struggled mightily away from home, with a serious home/road dichotomy. You simply played ON Santana at home and against him on the road. But Santana has improved his road numbers this season in dramatic fashion. Tonight, he gets to face one of the league's bottom-feeders in batting average and OPS. It's a mismatch on the mound, AND it's a first place team against a last place team. The price it too low in my opinion. Note that these pitchers have faced each other once this year already, with the Halos winning 4-1 at home. Your morning newspaper shows that Los Angeles is the best road team in baseball this season. I expect another comfortable victory for them tonight. The Angels minus the price is the play.
I'm laying the price with the Brewers on Monday night. Milwaukee is finally heating up, winning three straight and seven of their last 10. Tonight, they welcome in an Arizona team who would be five games under .500 if not for the horrible NL West. Jeff Suppan is a major reason why the Brewers are playing better and no one is better on their home diamond than this veteran righthander. Suppan has allowed just THREE earned runs in four starts at Miller Park, covering 29 innings of work. That's an unheard of 0.93 ERA to go along with a 1.24 WHIP and sizzling, .216 BAA! Former Brewer Doug Davis counters for the visitors tonight. He was absolutely shelled by weak-hitting San Francisco last time out. Now, he's catching a Brewer lineup at the wrong time...one that's finding their offensive power. Meanwhile, Suppan will face a lineup that's just 1-3 in road night games against righties, scoring just 3.8 runs per game in the process. The Brewers are 15-5 in Suppan's last 20 starts in thie venue, make it 16-5 after tonight. My Major Mismatch GOM is a play on the Brewers on Monday.
Dave Cokin
CLE Indians and TEX Rangers
Take TEX Rangers
This is basically a rerun of Sunday's free play. The Braves had the clear advantage on the mound, but their horrendous road play combined with a Cincinnati team on a roll at home made for a very live dog release on the Reds. Tonight, the struggling Indians have an edge on the hill with Laffey vs. Texas rookie Mathis. But the Indians cannot hit a lick and they've been a poor traveler. The Rangers are in clearly better team form. The price is being set almost exclusively on the two starting pitchers, and that's creating excellent value on another home dog. I'll back the Rangers."
JB's Computer Picks
Philadelphia Phillies -145
Oakland Athletics -165
Los Angeles Angels -130
Kosmo
Philadelphia -135 1 unit
Milwaukee -130 1 unit
St. Louis -170 1 unit
Baltimore Even 1 unit
Minnesota +130 1 unit
Texas +130 1 unit
Oakland -160 1 unit
Angels -120 1 unit
Josh Dean
Det/Oak UNDER 8
LAA/Sea UNDER 8.5
Sportsbettingstats
New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins
In yesterday's meeting between these two teams the Twins beat the Yankees 5-1. Both teams are paying well as of late, as the Yankees are 7-3 in their last 10 games, while the Twins are 6-4 in their last 10 games. The Twins are in 2nd place in the AL Central division 1 game back of the Chicago White Sox, while the Yankees are in 4th place in the AL East 6.5 games back of the Tampa bay Rays. The Yankees have played well recently, but the other 3 teams ahead of them in the division have also played well, so the Yankees have not gained any ground. Taking the mound for the Yankees is Andy Pettitte (5-5 4.11 ERA), who in his last outing went 6 innings giving up only 2 earned runs in the win. Pettitte is pitching better after a horrendous 0-4 start. In yesterdays loss the Yankees scored 1 run on 8 hits and left 8 men on base and their only run came on Derek Jeter's solo home run. Taking the mound for the Twins is Livian Hernandez (6-2 4.60 ERA), who has been a workhorse for the Twins and in his last outing went 6 innings giving up 6 earned runs in a no decision. In yesterdays win over the Yankees the Twins scored 5 runs on 9 hits and left 7 men on base
Staff Pick: The pitching match up has to go to the Yankees, as Pettitte had pitched well in his last few starts, while Hernandez is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Twins need to win this game to salvage a split for the series. Pettitte also seems to pitch well against the Twins, as he is 3-0 with a 2.37 ERA in his last 3 starts against them. Pettitte has to be careful of Justin Morneau (.308 10 HR 42 RBI) who has been swinging a hot bat lately. The Yankees are a much better fielding team that the Twins, as they only have 30 errors on the year, while the Twins have 43, which is the 4th most in the majors. Both teams have almost identical stats, in terms of batting average and runs scored, so this game will come down to which pitcher throws a better game. Hernandez will not blow people over, but he has the advantage of pitching to a lineup that has not seen him often, as he was in the NL for the first 12 years in the league. Look for Pettitte to throw a solid game and for the Yanks to jump all over Hernandez, who has been struggling lately, as the Yankees will win this game and the series.
Yankees 8 Twins 4
Locksmith Sports
1 Unit on Indians/Rangers UNDER 10 Runs
The Under is 23-8-2 in the Rangers last 33 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and 7-3 in Rangers last 10 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. The Under is 10-3 in the Indians last 13 road games, 11-1 in the Indians last 12 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5, 6-1 in the Indians last 7 vs. the American League West, and 25-10 in their last 35 overall. The Under is 5-0 in Laffey's last 5 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5, 4-0 in Laffey's last 4 road starts, and 8-2 in Laffey's last 10 starts overall. With Laffey on the hill to shut down the Rangers and with the Indians lack of scoring production on the road, we have ourselves a solid unders situation here.
John Ryan
New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on SF - Mets had a big win last night in Queens, but now they have traveled 3500 miles and have to play tonight in SF. Tough task and also tougher with a largely inconsistent starter in Perez. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 60-20 and has made 42.3 units since 2002 for 75% success. Play on NL home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season and is now facing an opponent with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start. My Ai Simulator had the Mets and Perez correctly identified as a 7* Sunday Night Monster winner at the Bronx on May 18th, but since that great start he has been borderline minor league quality. In his last 2 starts he has allowed 9 ER with 4 HR in 11 IP. Moreover, he is 0-4 when starting against SF with an ERA of 5.83 and a WHIP of 1.536.SF starter Sanchez has been far better posting a 2.84 ERA over his last 3 starts and a 2.78 ERA in home starts. Perez is in several weak roles for this game noting that he is 4-10 (-11.3 Units) against the money line versus poor power teams averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons; 2-9 (-10.9 Units) against the money line versus NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons; 4-9 (-11.1 Units) against the money line versus teams outscored by opposition by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons; 1-9 -10.6 units in June starts over the past 3 seasons. Take SF Giants.
VEGAS SPORTS PICS
Atlanta -120**
Minnesota +130*
Jack Jones
Philadelphia Phillies
Kyle Kendrick is a pitcher that doesn't give up a lot of home runs, and the Reds are more of a power team who need those blasts to score runs. The Reds are 0-8 (-8.7 Units) against the money line on road games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start this season. Bronson Arroyo has been bad on the road this year with a 5.12 ERA, but for his career against NL teams who score more than 4.8 runs/game, he's 8.26 when he's the visiting starter. I like the Phillies to win this one tonight.
MATT FARGO
New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants
PICK: San Francisco Giants
The Mets finished their homestand strong, winning five of their final six games after dropping the opener against Florida. Now it is back to the west coast where they went 3-3 in their last trip out there. This is not a very good spot however as they are coming off that game last night that did not end until 11:00 ET and then it was a long night of travel. Obviously the time difference helps but this will be a lethargic team come tonight. New York is just 11-16 on the road this season.
The Giants snagged the last game of their series with the Padres and it was hopefully a momentum building victory. San Francisco has actually been playing pretty well, going 7-4 in its last 11 games and the victory on Sunday snapped a seven-game home losing streak, which is another reason why that win was so important. The offense, non-existent to start the season, is coming around now as it has averaged 5.2 rpg over the last 13 games. This after averaging just 4.4 rpg to start the year.
Jonathan Sanchez has put together three straight quality games and is pitching at a seasons best right now following two of his shortest outings of the year prior to that. Since surrendering seven runs in his opening start against the Brewers, he has allowed three runs or fewer in all but one of his last 10 starts. His ERA is a solid 3.45 over those 10 outings with the Giants going 8-2 in those games. This is his first start ever against the Mets which is a solid pitching advantage.
New York counters with the ever inconsistent Oliver Perez. After opening the season with a quality start, he went six straight outings without recording another one. He tossed two more but his last two starts were dreadful, posting a 7.36 ERA and 2.00 WHIP. His WHIP on the season is 1.53 and it can be blamed on his poor control which has plagued him throughout his career. That WHIP is 8th worst in the league for qualified starters. Perez is 0-4 with a 5.83 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in eight career starts against the Giants. Play San Francisco Giants 1.5 Units
Ben Burns
Detroit Tigers at Oakland Athletics
Despite a win yesterday, the Tigers are still a dismal 17-29 vs. right-handers. Tonight, they'll be facing one of the top right-handers (when he's healthy) in the game. Harden is 3-0 with a 2.60 ERA and 1.240 WHIP this season. Over his last three starts, he's gone 2-0 with a stellar 1.80 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. Conversely, Rogers is 1-1 (Tigers were 1-2) his last three starts, recording an ugly 6.06 ERA and 1.898 WHIP. For the season, he has a 5.88 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. Consider laying the price with Harden and the A's.
Play on: Oakland
EZWINNERS
MLB
1 STAR: (952) PHILADELPHIA (-$136) over Cincinnati
(Action)
(Risking $136 to win $100)
1 STAR: (956) MILWAUKEE (-$131) over Arizona
(Listing Suppan only)
(Risking $131 to win $100)
1 STAR: (960) SAN DIEGO (+$160) over Chicago
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $160)
1 STAR: (971) DETROIT (+$144) over Oakland
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $145)
Ferrall
NL FREE B's FOR MON
CUBS -185 on ML over Padres--Take Chicago because the Padres suck ! Zambrano works them over for his 8th win. Cubs just finished a 7-0 homestand and have the best record in baseball. Zambrano has won his last three road starts.
DODGERS -160 on ML over Rockies--Derek Lowe handles Colorado at the Revine. The Rockies have dropped 7 straight games. They've lost 12 in a row on the road. They've lost 5 of 6 to the Dodgers this season already.
AL FREE B's FOR MON
TIGERS +150 on ML over A's--Kenny Rogers never loses to the A's, particularly in Oakland. He's 5-0 in his last 5 starts at the Coliseum. He's 23-1 in his last 41 starts in Oakland. He was 15-0 as a starter for the A's when he pitched for them in 98-99. He's 7-0 in his last 8 starts against the A's. Geez, you've got to pounce on this bet
Angels -130 on ML over Mariners--The Angels keep winning but they aren't scoring many runs lately. The M's have dropped 9 of 12. Santana beats Washburn to earn his 8th win.