LT Profits
Pittsburgh Pirates +155
The poor performance of Tom Gorzelanny of the Pittsburgh Pirates this season has been a mystery to us, but he has pitched well vs. the St. Louis Cardinals and we feel he will do so again at this very nice price.
We were very high on Gorzelanny coming into this season, but he has been a major disappointment to say the least at 4-5 with a 7.38 ERA and 1.90 WHIP in 46.1 innings. However, even in this miserable campaign, he had one of his better starts vs. these Cardinals allowing three runs and only two hits in five innings, the fourth tine in five career starts against St. Louis that Gorzo has allowed three runs or less.
Conversely, Adam Wainwright is having a fine year for the Cardinals at 5-2 with a 2.86 ERA. However, we question whether Wainwright is as good as that ERA would indicate, and once he is out of the game, the St. Louis bullpen has been a real adventure lately, particularly in this series.
Despite the apparent talent discrepancy between these clubs, they have split their eight head-t0-head meetings so far this season, and we look for the underdog Pirates to gain a split of this four-game series tonight.
Pick: Pirates +155
Seattle Mariners +115
Not much has gone on for the Seattle Mariners this season, but they did score five runs in each of the last two games, a figure that would be good enough to beat the Los Angeles Angels right now.
This is because the Angels are mired in a terrible offensive slump, as they are batting an atrocious .215 as a team over their last 10 games, and they have now failed to score more than four runs in 12 consecutive contests. New their starter Ervin Santana did toss a Complete Game three-hit gem vs. the Detroit Tigers in his last start, but he has three consecutive bad outings prior to that and the last time he pitched in Seattle, he recorded just one out while allowing five earned runs, four hits and two walks.
Now Seattle starter Jarrod Washburn is having a terrible year at 2-6 with a 6.54 ERA and 1.51 WHIP, but he may have turned a corner in his last start vs. the New York Yankees when he surrendered just two runs and four hits in six innings. Besides, the Angels offense could make just about any pitcher look good in its current state.
Ultimately, we feel that the Mariners will give Washburn more run support here than the Halos are capable of giving Santana, and therein lies the reason for this upset.
Pick: Mariners +115
Professional Gamblers Newsletter
BRAVES -134 over Marlins (Reyes-Olsen)
BREWERS -131 over Diamondbacks (Suppan-Davis)
ROCKIES +154 at Dodgers (Reynolds-Lowe) (OR +1.5 -152)
Yankees at Twins OVER 9.5 -113 (Pettitte-Hernandez)
ATHLETICS -1.5 +141 over Tigers (Harden-Rogers) (OR -155)
BRAD DIAMOND SPORTS
Play on: Atlanta/Florida 'Over' the total
What a great spot to fly high on Monday night. The improving Braves catch lefty Olsen of Florida who seems to be going through a "dead arm" period, nothing serious as most starting hurlers have this affliction at some time during the season. So, I expect with the Braves at home, the score board should be lit with runs galore. Further to which, the Braves lefty Reyes is off his best start of the season, but he has not faced a "hitters" lineup like Florida in sometime. Remember too, the Fish are 6-0-1 OVER vs. LHP, 8-0-2 OVER on Monday, 6-0-1 OVER as an underdog and 4-0 OVER after a loss.
Brian Hansen
New York Mets at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: San Francisco Giants
As long-time followers know Hansen likes to go against the grain when a situation warrants it and that is certainly the case here. The New York Mets are definitely the popular team (or public choice) in this match-up as they open up this three game set at San Francisco. However, this is truly a tough spot for the Mets. They are coming off of a big home win over the Dodgers last night on Sunday Night Baseball and they then had to hop in a plane and fly cross country for this game. As for the Giants, theyve been resting at home as they wrapped up their series with the Padres yesterday afternoon by notching the win at AT & T Park. The situational edge here definitely favors the Giants! Want more Take a look at the pitchers in this match-up. Its a battle of southpaws but it looks like Jesus Sanchez of the Giants should have a big edge over Oliver Perez of the Mets. Perez is 0-4 with a 5.83 ERA in his career against the Giants while Sanchez has only pitched in two short relief outings against the Mets in his career. As a result, the Mets hitters are not familiar with Sanchez at all while the Giants will take advantage of Perez and his history of struggles against San Francisco at AT & T Park! Sanchez has allowed three earned runs or less in nine of his last ten starts and his solid work continues here against a fatigued Mets team. That allows the Giants to score the home dog upset!
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on LA Dodgers -151
The Rockies have been pitiful on the road all season long. They are 9-26 in their last 35 games as an underdog, 7-23 in their last 30 road games, and 6-20 in their last 26 games as a road underdog. The Rockies are also a terrible 3-18 in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Dodgers are playing decent baseball despite some injury problems and they'll be in good shape tonight at home behind Lowe. The Dodgers are 13-3 in Lowe's last 16 home starts vs. a team with a losing record, 9-4 in Lowe's last 13 starts as a favorite, and 21-8 in Lowe's last 29 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. The Rockies are 18-42 in the last 60 meetings in Los Angeles. All Dodgers here.
BIG AL's RED-HOT MONDAY NIGHT BASEBALL BLOWOUT!
Braves
Robert Ferringo
I am definitely am very wary of this play, but there is tremendous value on a very good home team (Texas) against a floundering road team (Cleveland). The Indians have dumped 13 of their last 16 games and just lost a series at Kansas City. The Rangers are hot, and I think they can get to Aaron Laffey. Doug Mathis shut down the Indians last week. That means he's due to get rocked today. But Cleveland's definition of "rocked" right now is about five runs. I think the Rangers can top that.
TEXAS RANGERS +135
Scott Delaney
It's really hard to ignore the red-hot Rangers, especially with them playing in Arlington. You'd think Aaron Laffey would get more respect against Doug Mathis, but the fact is the oddsmakers are not fooling anyone with this number. It's this high because of how well Texas is playing - it's the top-hitting team in the league - and the Tribe might be the most disappointing team on the junior circuit. Cleveland's pitching staff may rank among the best in the American League with a 3.65 ERA, but it has allowed 20 runs in the last four games. The Tribe has also dropped 12 of 15, it's lost five straight series and it has posted a 4.74 ERA while their opponents have hit .290. Fact is, with an anemic offense like this one, I'll dive into the unknown with Texas young right-hander, who came on strong at Triple-A Oklahoma before being called up, and is due to produce a solid outing for the Rangers. Things will be balanced offensively, as I expect Josh Hamilton and Milton Bradley to continue their assault from the plate. And if they spark the lineup, it'll certainly provide enough momentum for Mathis to do his thing in on the rubber. Lay the chalk.
3* TEXAS RANGERS
Michael Cannon
Boston at BALTIMORE
Take the Red Sox for the road win tonight over the Orioles.
Boston is going for the four-game series sweep over the O?s, and the way the Red Sox offense is clicking the Orioles really don?t have a chance here tonight.
The BoSox have scored 20 runs in winning the first three games of the series, and if they can get just a couple of runs tonight they?ll have a great chance of winning.
That?s because Baltimore starter Jeremy Guthrie has received little to no run support at all this year.
The right-hander has posted a 2.18 ERA over his last three starts, but is 0-3 while getting only two total runs of support.
Take Boston as they grab the road win.
2* BOSTON
WUNDERDOG
Game: Cleveland at Texas
Pick: Texas +126
The Cleveland Indians are in dire straights. A team which was loaded with offense last year, is hitting just .234 as a team - more than 10 points lower than any other AL team. The last 11 on the road have produced just 27 runs or less than 2.5 per game. That makes it hard for any pitcher, including Aaron Laffey, to find the win column. Not too many pitchers with a 1.59 ERA own a 3-3 record, but the Indians simply can't score. The Rangers have found some magic as they have now gone 20-11 over a 31 game stretch, which includes six consecutive home series wins. Here we have hot vs cold and with a nice juicy dog, it's always worth a play.
Gavazzi
3% Millwaukee Brewers
Larry Ness
Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners
PICK: Los Angeles Angels
REASON FOR PICK: The Angels scored two runs in the bottom of the ninth (with two outs) to edge the Blue Jays 4-3 on Sunday. The win gave the Angels their fifth straight series win and 10 wins in their last 15 games. All this despite the fact that LA has not scored more than four runs in a game since the team's 10-2 win over the Dodgers on May 18 (13 games ago!). The Angels are batting a pathetic .204 as a team since May 20 (lowest in all of MLB during that span), yet are 8-4 in their 12 games. As for the Mariners, they enter tonight's game at 21-36, the worst record in the AL. What a difference a year makes! The Mariners were MLB's second-biggest "money-makers" last year, going plus-$1,924 vs the moneyline (only the Rockies were better). However, they are the second-biggest "money-burners" this year (ironically, only the Rockies are worse!), at minus-$1,598. Seattle enters this game having dropped nine of its last 12 games and will start the struggling Jarrod Washburn. Washburn is 2-6 with a 6.54 ERA in '08 and has just one win since April 9. He has had trouble both home and away, posting a 7.04 ERA in six road starts (team is 1-5) and a 6.14 ERA in four home starts (team is 1-3). The ex-Angel will face his former team for the second time this year, having given up four runs and 10 hits over six innings on April 19 in a 4-1 loss. Washburn's mound opponent in that April game was Ervin Santana and he is again tonight. Everyone knows that Santana entered this year with an excellent home mark but an atrocious road record. However, while he's continued to pitch well in Anaheim in '08 (3-1 with a 2.52 ERA in five starts), the difference has been in his road performances. Santana entered '08 with a 10-21 record and a 7.14 ERA on the road in 39 starts (team was 13-26). However, he's 4-1 with a 3.83 ERA in six starts this year (team is 4-2), giving him an overall 7-2 mark in '08, with a 3.09 ERA. The Angels have continued to find ways to win despite their hitting woes but in Washburn, they have an opposing pitcher they should be able to "get to." LA had trouble vs lefties last year (19-21 on the season) but is 9-2 vs left-handed starters so far in '08. Play the Angels
Ted Sevransky
Cleveland Indians @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Under
REASON FOR PICK: It’s not hard to bet Aaron Laffey games Under the total right now, even against good hitting teams like the Rangers. Yes, it’ll be a warm night in Texas, and yes, we saw the Rangers and A’s combine to pound out 33 runs in the final two games of their series here over the weekend. But let’s not forget about the strong winds blowing in from right field tonight. Nor should we fail to appreciate just how good Aaron Laffey has been – his 0.79 ERA for the month of May was the lowest of any starting pitcher in baseball, with five consecutive absolutely dominant outings. The Rangers haven’t hit lefties all year, hitting 39 points higher against righties than southpaws for the season, and an even sharper .248/.332 lefty/righty split in their last ten games.
Meanwhile, Cleveland’s offensive woes continue to mar their season. They were held to three runs in their final two games at Kansas City over the weekend, helping the Royals break their extended losing streak. Those results are typical for the light hitting Indians on the road – they’ve averaged just 3.5 runs per game away from home for the entire season. Cleveland has been held to three runs or less nine times in their last eleven road games, making this total look a tad bit too high. When we factor in the success of Rangers rookie Doug Mathis in his last outing, holding this same Indians lineup to a single run in six innings of work in 2-1 Texas victory, the Under here looks rock solid. Take the Under.
THE MILLER GROUP
New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins
PICK: Minnesota Twins
We simply feel there's too much value to pass up with the Twins at home on Monday. While the Yankees have dominated the Twinkies in recent years, they're still a losing team on the road this season and on getaway day, we wouldn't be surprised to see a disinterested effort.
Andy Pettitte doesn't have any business being priced in this range on the road. The Yankees are just 5-6 in his 11 starts in 2008, and have lost two of his last three on the road. He owns excellent lifetime numbers against the Twins, but has only faced them once since 2003.
Livan Hernandez gets the call for the Twins. As poorly as he has pitched this season, the Twins are still 9-3 in his 12 starts, including a 5-1 ledger here at the Metrodome. He's been getting excellent run support, to the tune of close to seven runs per game in Minnesota.
The Twins will stay home to host the Orioles tomorrow while the Yankees fly back to New York to open a homestand. Scheduling alone favors the Twins this evening and with a chance to earn a rare split against the Yankees, we expect to see a motivated effort. Take Minnesota.
DOC'S
New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants
PICK: Over
REASON FOR PICK: The Mets will be lacking sleep after playing on Sunday Night Baseball yesterday and now must make a cross country flight to the Bay Area, as this three game series opens up @ AT&T Park. The good news is that the Mets line-up came alive during the weekend taking three of four games from Los Angeles. Delgado is finally starting to hit and that should increase their productivity. The Mets send LHP Oliver Perez to the mound and he has had no success against the Giants going 0-4 with a 5.83 E.R.A. in eight starts. We will not worry who covers this pick’em game and just collect with the OVER!