SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Milwaukee (41-34) at Atlanta (38-39)
The red-hot Brewers send ace Ben Sheets (8-1, 2.74 ERA) to the mound at Turner Field to take on the Braves and young left-hander Jo-Jo Reyes (3-4, 4.05) in the opener of a three-game series in Atlanta.
Milwaukee has won six of its last seven overall, including Sunday’s 7-3 victory over the Orioles. The Brewers are 6-1 in their last seven Monday games and 6-1 in their last seven when facing a southpaw, but they’re 7-15 in their last 22 on the road and 34-71 in their last 105 road games against a team with a losing record.
Atlanta is coming off a pair of wins over the lowly Mariners, rallying for a 5-4 victory Saturday and cruising 7-3 on Sunday. The Braves are on a 37-15 roll at Turner Field dating back to last season, including 27-12 this year. Also, Bobby Cox’s club sports streaks of 22-7 at home against right-handed starters and 4-0 on Mondays, but it has lost six straight games against the N.L. Central and is 2-7 in its last nine versus winning teams.
The Brewers took two of three against the Braves in Milwaukee a month ago, but Atlanta is 6-4 in the last 10 series clashes. Finally, the home team is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
Milwaukee has won 10 of Sheets’ 14 starts this season, including seven of nine on the road where the right-hander is a perfect 5-0 with a 2.62 ERA. He hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in six straight starts and gave up two runs on four hits in six innings of a 5-4 home win over the Blue Jays on Wednesday.
For his career, Sheets is 8-3 with a 4.80 ERA in 11 starts against the Braves, including 4-2 with a 5.27 ERA in 41 innings of work at Turner Field. The Brewers have won his last five starts against Atlanta, including a 5-4 victory last season with Sheets yielding three runs on 11 hits in six innings.
Reyes has a 2.82 ERA in his last three starts but he’s just 1-1, with the victory coming Wednesday in Texas, where he surrendered two runs (one earned) in seven innings of a 5-2 win. At home this season, he’s gone 2-2 with a 5.17 ERA, including a 6-2 loss to the Phillies in his most recent outing at Turner Field, as he gave up four runs on seven hits in 7 1/3 innings.
Reyes was a tough-luck loser against the Brewers last month, yielding just one run on two hits in seven innings but losing 1-0. In two career starts against Milwaukee he’s allowed four earned runs on six hits in 12 1/3 innings (2.92 ERA).
With Sheets on the hill, the Brewers are on hot streaks of 24-9 overall, 10-2 on the road, 13-3 against the N.L. East and 4-1 on Mondays. Meanwhile, Atlanta is 6-2 in Reyes’ last eight at home and 9-4 in his last 13 overall.
The over is 7-2-1 in Sheets’ last 10 with four days of rest and 7-3 in his last 10 against the Braves (4-1 in Atlanta), but the under is 4-1-1 in his last six Monday outings. For Reyes, the under is 8-2-1 in his last 11 overall.
Milwaukee has topped the total in eight of its last 11 overall, but otherwise the team is on “under” runs of 6-2 against southpaws, 17-5 against the N.L. East, 10-3-1 in series openers and 4-1 on Mondays. The Braves are on “under” streaks of 41-19-3 overall, 37-16-3 against right-handed starters, 20-8 in series openers, 20-7-4 against the N.L. Central and 4-2 at home.
Finally, the under is 17-8 in the last 25 series meetings in Atlanta and 6-1 in the last seven head-to-head battles overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
INTERLEAGUE
Arizona (39-37) at Boston (47-31)
A pair of division leaders are set square off at Fenway Park as the Diamondbacks send Danny Haren (7-4, 3.26) to the mound opposite Red Sox ace Josh Beckett (7-4, 3.87).
Arizona arrives in Boston after getting swept in Minnesota over the weekend, capped by Sunday’s 5-3 setback. The Diamondbacks, who were outscored 18-6 in Minnesota, have lost six of their last eight and 12 of 19. They’ve also really struggled on the road, going just 6-17 in their last 23 on foreign turf.
Boston needed to go 13 innings versus the Cardinals on Sunday to avoid a rare three-game sweep at Fenway Park, getting a walk-off, two-run homer from Kevin Youkilis for a 5-3 victory. The Red Sox have been the kings of interleague play in recent years, going 49-13 in their last 62 against the National League. Boston is also on a 40-12 roll at Fenway since last season (29-9 this year), and the team is 41-11 in its last 52 games when hosting N.L. squads. The Sox also carry streaks of 5-0 against the N.L. West and 38-16 at Fenway against teams with a winning record.
These teams met last year in Arizona, with the Red Sox taking two of three. In the only previous meeting in 2002, the DBacks swept a three-game set in Boston.
Haren held the A’s to one run on four hits in seven innings en route to an 11-1 win over his former team on Wednesday, as Arizona improved to 4-0 in the right-hander’s last four starts. Haren is 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA in his last three outings, but on the road he is 0-3 with a 4.62 ERA in six starts.
Going back to his days in Oakland, Haren is just 1-3 with a 3.26 ERA in five lifetime starts (30 1/3 innings) against Boston. He saw them last season as a member of the A’s and allowed two runs on four hits in 7 2/3 innings of a 5-4 victory.
Beckett has been sidelined since June 15, when he pitched seven innings of shutout ball against Cincinnati, as he and the Sox got an easy 9-0 win. The veteran righty hasn’t lost at Fenway this season, going 4-0 despite a 4.81 ERA. Against the DBacks, Beckett is 1-3 with a 5.65 ERA in five career starts, but the lone victory was a 10-3 blowout triumph in Arizona last June, when he held the DBacks to three runs (two earned) on five hits (no walks) in eight innings work.
Terry Francona’s club is 35-16 in Beckett’s last 51 starts, 21-6 in his last 27 when facing a winning team, 10-1 in his past 11 interleague starts and 10-4 in his last 14 series openers.
The under is 7-3 in Haren’s last 10 outings for Arizona, but the over is 5-2 in Beckett’s last seven at home, 4-1-1 in his last six Monday starts and 4-1 in his last five series openers.
For the Diamondbacks, the over trends include 8-0-1 against the A.L. East, 4-2 in interleague road games and 5-2 against right-handed starters. Additionally, Boston is on over streaks of 4-2-2 overall, 6-2-2 against right-handed starters and 4-1-1 against righties at home, but the under is 20-8-3 in the squad’s last 31 games on Mondays.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
Alex Smart
Milwaukee Brewers -114
The Milwaukee Brewers enter into this tilt against the Atlanta Braves in top form having won 6 of their L7 and 21 of their L31 games overall , and are 7 games above .500 on the season. With Ben Sheets on the hill for the brew crew tonight, they once again look like a good bet. The veteran right hander is (8-1, 2.74 ERA) on the season ,and is 5-0 on the road this year, along with a stingy 2.62 ERA, and 4-0 with a 2.11 ERA in his L6 starts overall. Sheets is also 8-3 with a 4.80 ERA in his 11 career starts against the Braves, and has recorded a very stable 3.48 ERA during a five-start win streak in this series. Lets back him to help his team notch another victory in Turner Field this Monday night. Play on the Brewers
Matt Fargo
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves
Home teams are 54-23 in Atlanta games this season meaning the host wins just over 70 percent of the time. No other team can match this so it is pretty safe to say there is value on the Braves when they are home underdogs and value the other way when they are road favorites. Atlanta is 4-1 this season as home dogs of +125 or less so while the value is here, it has been taking advantage of it as well. Prior to the recent home series, the Braves had dropped four straight at home so taking two of three against Seattle was big.
The Brewers hit the road following a successful 6-3 homestand. The road has not been kind to Milwaukee this season and that is especially the case of late. After starting the season 7-4 away from home, the Brewers are 9-17 in their last 26 roadies. Milwaukee is 5-7 as a road favorite of -125 or less so even when it should be winning, it isn’t. The Brewers are hitting only .247 on the road which is 5th worst in the National League while its road ERA of 5.03 is 3rd worst so you can see why they struggle away from home.
The one bright spot in the rotation for Milwaukee has been Ben Sheets and that is obviously why they are favored in this spot here. He has been pitching very well with six straight quality outings, five of which have turned into Brewers wins. There is one problematic area and that is baserunners allowed. He has yielded seven hits or more in four of those six games and his WHIP over his last three starts in 1.26 which is mostly due to lack of recent control. Sheets has yet to lose on the road, going 5-0 but the Brewers are 2-2 when he is not involved in the decision.
A big bright spot for the Braves has been the pitching of Jo-Jo Reyes. Through is first five starts this season, he posted a 5.84 ERA but he has settled in nicely since then as his last five outings has seen an ERA of 2.80 ERA including four quality starts. Atlanta is 4-2 in his six home starts and only one of those six games was a bad outing. Milwaukee is hitting just .233 against lefties over its last 10 games and it was shut down already once this season by Reyes as he held it to one run on two hits in seven innings. Play Atlanta Braves 1.5 Units
Marc Lawrence
Play On: LA Angels w/Lackey vs Bergmann
The Angels open a three game series with the Nationals this evening when John Lackey takes on Jason Bergmann and the Nats in Washington. Lackey remains in sharp KW form with 3 walks and 19 strikeouts in his last three starts while Bergmann has issued 6 walks against 4 strikeouts in his last three efforts. With Lackey owning a 1.61 ERA in his six starts at night this year and Bergmann 0-5 under the lights this campaign with a 5.28 ERA, look for the Nationals to fall to 0-5 at home behind Bergmann this season here tonight.
Bryan Leonard
Boston over Arizona
Arizona continues to struggle outside their division as they were swept over the weekend in Boston. Now they face the defending World Champions on the road. The Arizona offense has produced just 3.55 runs per game on the road vs right-handed starters. They are really struggling as of late scoring three runs or less in eight of their last nine games. Today's starter Dan Haren is 0-3 away from home with a 4.62 ERA.
Boston rakes at home against righties scoring 6.31 runs per game. The Red Sox are on a current 27-7 run when playing at Fenway Park. In Interleague play Boston is an amazing 43-9 vs right-handed starters. Today's pitcher Josh Beckett is a perfect 4-0 this season pitching at home.Boston has a slight edge in starting pitching but a huge edge in location and offensive output. The number is a bit pricey but how often do you get Josh Beckett at home in this price range?
PLAY BOSTON
Tom Freese
Arizonza at Boston
Boston starter Josh Beckett is in excellent KW form with a better than 4 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio in his last 3 starts. The Red Sox are 20-8-3 UNDER their last 31 Monday games and they are 9-4-1 UNDER their last 14 games as home favorites of -151 to -200. Arizona is 52-15 UNDER on the road when the Total is 8.5 to 10.0 the last two years and they are 7-3 UNDER in the last 10 starts made by Danny Haren. He is also in awesome KW form with a 9-1 strikeout to walk ratio in his last 3 starts. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Robert Ross
Seattle Mariners at New York Mets
Prediction: Seattle Mariners
Intriguing battle of teams with new managers. Both should begin to play a bit better so we'll back the dog with their ace hurler on the mound. SEATTLE is 23-17 against the money line in road games vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons while the Mets are 41-37 against the money line vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Take Seattle!
Big Al Mcmordie
Colorado Rockies at Kansas City Royals
Prediction: Kansas City Royals
At 8:10pm our member selection is on the Kansas City Royals over the Colorado Rockies. After having to play the Rockies in Colorado in their last three interleague series' in 2003, 2005, and 2007, the Royals finally get to challenge last season's surprise World Series finalists in their home ballpark for a three game series before facing cross-state rivals St. Louis to end their interleague season for 2008. And this first game is a great matchup for the Royals as 27-year-old righthander Brian Bannister goes for the home team against Colorado lefty Jeff Francis. Despite his 6-6 record and 4.81 ERA, Bannister has been stellar in front of the home crowd at Kauffman Stadium going 4-2 with a 2.80 ERA while Francis is coming off his breakout season of 2007 when he won 17 games and had an ERA in the low-4's and has taken a huge step backwards in '08. Francis is 3-6 with a 5.22 ERA and the Rockies have only won five of his fifteen starts. If things keep going the way they have for the Royals over the last several games, then this team will be sorry to see the Interleague schedule come to an end. In their last eight games (all against National League teams), the Royals are 7-1. Take Kansas City.
Sports Gambling Hotline
Milwaukee -110 at ATLANTA
Tonight we feel the only reason the price on Milwaukee is so small is because the Brewers are just 16-21 away from home, while the Braves are 27-12 at home, but clearly the pitching edge in this game belongs to Milwaukee.
Ben Sheets has not lost on the road this season, at 5-0, and sports a road ERA of just 2.62, while his counterpart Jo-Jo Reyes is just 3-4 for the season, and his ERA at Turner Field stands at 5.17.
Milwaukee has won 6 of their last 8 games, and they have taken 2 of 3 earlier this year at home against the Braves.
You probably won't find a cheaper price on Ben Sheets any later in the season, so we suggest a play on the Brew Crew tonight in Hot-Lanta.
Play on the Brewers.
3* MILWAUKEE
Bobby Maxwell
Arizona at BOSTON
Today we're going with a freebie on the Red Sox runline against the Diamondbacks.
This is a runline play so make the distinction and get the odds in our favor.
The D'Backs have been horrible on the road this season and they are just 6-17 in their last 23 on the highway. They couldn't win in Minnesota over the weekend over the weekend and don't expect them to find any success at Fenway Park. That's why we're play the Red Sox in this one.
Arizona has lost six of its last eight overall and the bats just don't seem to work when this teams hits the highway.
Josh Beckett (7-4, 3.87 ERA) is a perfect 4-0 at Fenway Park this season with a 4.81 ERA. And he's coming off seven innings of shutout work against Cincinnati on June 15 when the Red Sox beat the Reds 9-0. Boston is 35-16 in Beckett's last 51 starts, 21-6 when he faces a team with a winning record, 10-1 in interleague starts and 10-4 in series openers.
Last time Beckett faced the D'Backs was last June when he gave up two earned runs in eight innings of a 10-3 Red Sox victory.
Dan Haren (7-4, 3.26) goes for the A's and he's 0-3 with a 4.62 ERA on the road this season. Against Boston, Haren is 1-3 with a 3.26 ERA in 30.1 innings of action.
Boston has dominated the N.L. in interleague play, going 48-13 in their last 61 and 40-11 at Fenway in interleague action. Look for the Red Sox to add to that tonight. We're playing them to take care of the D'Backs with no problem and win this one by at least two runs.
3* RED SOX (RL)
Karl Garrett
LA Angels -160 at WASHINGTON
Tonight a lot of goose eggs on the board in Washington, as the Halos and Nats get at it.
Los Angeles just completed a 3-game sweep at Philadelphia, ALL 3 of the games in the hitter-friendly park staying UNDER the posted total.
The Angels are on a 2-7-2 UNDER clip their last 11 games, and with John Lackey sporting a slim 1.73 ERA since coming back from injury, I have to believe the Nationals won't be getting much going against LA tonight.
Bergmann will counter, and he is coming off of 6 innings of 1 earned run ball in a road loss at Minnesota. The G-Man expects another similar effort.
Just not enough offense tonight for this baby to go OVER, so play the UNDER in the Angels-Nationals battle.
4* UNDER
Chris Jordan
Fresno State vs. Georgia,
Hey guys, there are only five MLB games on the board, and I like two of them enough to put them in my premium package for tonight. Thus, I am not forcing a free play out there, when I don't necessarily like much else out there.
I can tell you that if you're looking to put a little something down in advance on the College World Series, my suggestion is to play the Georgia Bulldogs in the series.
This team impressed me in the Super Regional, and all the way through the double-elimination rounds of this World Series.
Georgia, which as an institution will be aiming for its fourth national championship since April, is very dangerous up and down that lineup. From Beckham to Massanari to Fields to Peisel to Poythress ... I loved watching the 'Dawgs take a bite out of every opponent along the way.
Now I know we need to get more out of a starting rotation that has worked no more than four innings in the College World Series, but something tells me the best is yet to come from the likes of Trevor Holder, Nick Montgomery and Nathan Moreau.
We already know what Joshua Fields is capable of, and as long as this lineup continues its torrid run in the most important part of this tournament, I believe Fields will emerge as the MVP for Georgia, as he'll shut down the equally explosive Fresno-lineup.
I'll be honest, I am fond of the "Bulldog," so I am getting a huge kick out of the finalists in this one, but anyone who watched these teams play since the Conference Tournaments, into the Super Regionals and the CWS, they should know that Georgia is destined for the title of National Champion this season.
If your book does not offer a series price on the College World Series, my suggestion is to play Georgia in each game, increasing your wager 1-1/2 times each time.
Good Luck, and we'll be back Tuesday with another MLB winner.
4* GEORGIA SERIES
Jeffersonsports
Early Release
La Angels-168
Seattle Mariners+158
PlusLineSports Daily Baseball Selection
LA Angels Runline -1.5
JOHN FINA
Selection: Seattle/New York Under 7
Today we expect a low-scoring game as the Seattle Mariners do battle with the New York Mets. One reason why we expect a low-scoring game is because both these teams will be sending to the mound solid starting pitchers. This says it all... The Seattle Mariners Starting Pitcher (Felix Hernandez) has a 1.27 ERA in his last 3 starts, while New York Mets Starting Pitcher (Johan Santana) has a 2.37 ERA in his last 3 starts. In addition, Seattle Mariners Starting Pitcher (Felix Hernandez) has been an "Under" machine this season. In fact, the Under is 3-12 in Felix Hernandez's 15 starts this season. As you can see, both these pitchers will most likely give up very few hits and runs today. The Under is 3-1 in the last 4 meetings between these teams, and we expect to see another low-scoring game today! Take the Seattle Mariners/New York Mets Under 7