STEVE JANUS
BOSTON REDSOX
The Red Sox lead the 2008 series against the Rays, 6-3, and they've been playing well against winning teams all season. Boston is 5-1 in their last 6 games against teams in their division, the AL East, and they've now won 4 of their last 5 against a team with a winning percentage of .600 or more, like Tampa Bay.
Nostradamus
MLB-St Louis -115
MLB-NY Yankees -180
Arena-Cleveland -4.5
Arena-Arizona -1
MATT RIVERS
For Monday take the Brewers in Arizona
Right now Milwaukee is a much much better team than Arizona. In fact we are looking at teams that are in the midst of completely opposite seasons. The Diamondbacks were insanely great in the first month to six weeks of the season looking as if they were a show in to get to the World Series and right now can't do anything right including blowing the game yesterday in Florida in the 9th inning. On the opposite extreme we have Ned Yost's talented Brewers who did not get out of the gate too well but over the past month and change have been proving they are a solid solid ballclub on the heels of the Cardinals and Cubs..Yes Ben Sheets and the Brewers lost yesterday in Minnesota and dropped two of the three games there but the Twinkies have been rolling and I take nothing from that as Prince, Braun, Hardy, Hall and the Brew Crew are very good and still feeling pretty good about themselves thanks to the scorching last little bit.
Dave Bush has had back-to-back excellent starts including last week when he took a no-hitter into the seventh inning against Toronto. He has allowed just two runs and a total of six hits in the last two starts spanning 15 innings. Bush is a sinkerballer and when that pitch is on he can be nasty and that is what has been the case of late. Against the struggling and reeling Diamondbacks I expect nothing but another great outing from the righty.
Doug Davis is a professional lefty hurler who knows how to pitch but he is not the most talented guy out there and should get touched up a bit today against some blue chip studs like Fielder and Braun.
This is not the greatest takeback being on the road but in the end we are getting the much hotter and better team and I'll take my chances on the Brew Crew
SCOTT DELANEY
Play the Brewers tonight, as we take a shot at them heading into the desert to face the Snakes. And we'll go ahead and list Dave Bush, as he's pitched well his last two starts, and could very well make a statement on the final day of the month, that he can be a force in this rotation.
2♦ BREWERS
CHRIS JORDAN
The Cubbies are your play on the West Coast, as they'll invade the Bay Area and chase Ted Lilly early, then coast late after last night's nationally televised loss to the South Siders.
Lilly is not my favorite pitched in the world, but when you're facing Barry Overpaid Zito, you can feel safe in your investment. The hard-throwing southpaw comes in off a win over the Orioles in which he gave up four runs on five hits over seven innings. I know Lilly is struggling to keep the ball in the park who doesn't struggle when the wind is blowing out at Wrigley Thus, AT&T Park might be an easier place for him to keep it within. He's sporting a 2-1 lifetime mark against the Giants.
On the flipside, Zito comes in after posting a 1-3 mark in four June starts, and though he comes in off a somewhat stellar performance at Cleveland, let's not forget he's 0-7 with a 7.34 ERA in Frisco.
I know the Cubbies have lost eight of 12 overall, and they've suffered three-game sweeps in their last two road series, but they still own the best overall record in the National League, and it?s back to the senior circuit for Lou's crew. And he won't let them head into the Break on a losing skid. Lay the road chalk here.
4♦ CUBS
HOT LOCK SPORTS
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds
Pittsburgh Pirates +140
The Reds are 4-10 L 14 overall and 2-5 L 7 as a home favorite. Pitt is 5-1 L 6 of Maholms starts and Pittsburgh is 4-1 L5 when Maholm faces Harang. The Reds are hitting .218 vs leftys their L 10 games while Pitt is hitting .273 L 10 vs rightys. The Pirates lead the season series 4-2. Bullpen favors Cincy but we like the bats on the Pirates better right now. Over priced here, we will take the undervalued road dog. Pirates for 2 units!
Matty O'Shea
BOS +125 vs TAM
Analysis: The defending World Series champion Red Sox have not lost three straight games in more than a month and face the pitcher who ignited a bench-clearing brawl the last time these teams met back on June 5th. That would be Tampa Bay's James Shields, who is just 1-4 lifetime vs. Boston with a 5.66 ERA. While Shields has been dominant at home, he will be facing a very motivated Sox squad that has taken back the AL East lead from the Rays both times they have had the opportunity this season. Boston has won the last six meetings with Tampa Bay and sends Justin Masterson to the mound. The Sox have won five of the last six times Masterson has gone to the mound, including a win over the Rays back on June 3rd. I definitely expect Boston to regain focus in this series, so take this team as my MLB Underdog Play O' the Day.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Washington Nationals at Florida Marlins
An early line move in favor of the Fish suggests the public is unaware of Nats starter Tim Redding's incredible 12-1 team start record in the underdog role. Furthermore, his TSR is a perfect 10-0 if priced below +150 and he's 6 for 6 as a road underdog. Washington has won the last nine games he has started and will be looking for revenge against their division rivals, who have taken 8 of the first 9 meetings this season between the teams.
Play on: Washington
MATT FARGO
New York Mets vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: St Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals were able to take the final two games in Kansas City and come home with a successful 5-4 record during the recent roadtrip. St. Louis is the only team in baseball with at least 23 wins at both home and on the road. It was swept by the Royals in its last home series so it comes in with some momentum this time around. The Cardinals offense is leading the charge, hitting .292 over the last 10 games while averaging 5.4 rpg over that span. St. Louis is also hitting .280 at home against right-handed pitching.
The Mets were not swept by the Yankees over the weekend but they were swept at home sop they come in on a big downer and a three-game losing skid. New York is five games under .500 on the road and the offense can be to blame as has been the case recently. The Mets are hitting .254 on the road this season and over the last 10 games they are hitting only .248. They have scored three runs or fewer in seven of those games and have averaged just 4.1 rpg over that 10-game stretch and that includes a 15-run game.
Kyle Lohse has had a very solid recent stretch. Lohse had tossed three straight quality starts prior to his last outing and has done so in six of his last eight games, posting a 3.07 ERA over that span. One non-quality start was due to lack of innings as he allowed just one run in five innings. He has been solid at home, going 4-1 with a 3.10 ERA in nine starts at Busch Stadium. Add to that, Lohse is 5-0 with a 2.84 ERA in eight nighttime starts.
John Maine has put together two straight quality outings but he has not had three straight since mid-May. Through May 13th, his ERA was at 2.81 and it has gone up nearly a full run since then as his ERA over his last eight starts is a very below average 4.70. He has had better success on the road than at home but the Mets are just 4-4 in his eight away starts. He has only pitched more than 6.2 innings once all season yet has gone over 100 pitches in seven straight starts. Walks are a problem as proven by his 1.43 road WHIP. Play St. Louis Cardinals 1.5 Units
TONY MATHEWS
Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles
Selection: Kansas City Royals -120
The Kansas City Royals will use starting pitcher Zack Greinke. Zack Greinke has been pitching very well as of late. In fact, Zack Greinke has a 1.80 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Zack Greinke pitching another great game today.
The Baltimore Orioles will use starting pitcher Brian Burres. Brian Burres has been struggling as of late. In fact, Brian Burres has a 6.75 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Brian Burres pitching another bad game today.
The bottom line, the Kansas City Royals should be able to beat the Baltimore Orioles tonight!
Take the Kansas City Royals!
VEGAS SPORTS PICS
St Louis +105*
Houston/Dodgers UNDER 8.5*
SportsKingz
ANGELS -130
TORONTO -155
CUBS -145
YANKEES -185
Nick Parsons
While the Yankees money line is too expensive to release as a pay play to my clients, there is value with the Yankees on Monday and that is why youre seeing them here! The Yanks were 16-7 in their last 23 games before yesterdays 3-1 loss to the Mets. Note that they send Mike Mussina to the mound tonight and that is a big problem for the Rangers. Not only is Mussina 10-5 with a 3.93 ERA this season, he has also dominated Texas in his recent meetings with them. The Yankees right-hander is 6-0 with a 2.72 ERA in his last nine starts against the Rangers and there is no reason that his dominance should be halted on Monday! Keep in mind that Mussina has won 9 of his last 11 decisions and his last start was halted by rain in the third inning so he is very well rested for tonights start! The Rangers have lost 20 of their last 26 games versus New York and, especially with this pitching match-up tonight, the struggles against the Yankees should continue for Texas. The Rangers send Scott Feldman to the mound and he has not fared well at all on the road in his career. He is 0-7 with a 6.72 ERA in 43 career road games. Overall, Feldman hasnt won a game since May 9th and hes 0-2 with a 4.88 ERA since then. Feldman needed 99 pitches just to get through four innings against Houston in his last start and he wont find Yankee Stadium to be any kinder than Minute Maid Park! Feldman has never made a start at Yankee Stadium before and it can be a tough place for a young hurler. Feldman is only 25 years old and has only made 11 starts in his brief MLB career. Yankees win this one in a rout!
Alex Smart
Cleveland Indians vs. Chicago White Sox
Prediction: Chicago White Sox
The White Sox (46-35) are playing some impressive baseball at the moment, and are off beating their cross town rivals the Chicago Cubs 5-1 yesterday, completing a three-game sweep of that series for their fourth straight win overall. The Pale Hose now expect to continue that run vs last place Cleveland Indians team that they have beaten in six of their last seven confrontations , including a three-game home sweep back in late May. .With the inconsistent Jeremy Sowers (0-3, 5.97 ERA) going to the hill for the slumping Tribe tonight,I doubt very much their will be very much positive momentum behind their efforts to turn things around. Note: Sowers has no wins in 6 starts during his current campaign, and after tonight im betting that count will increase to 7 starts, 0 wins . Look for and expect White Sox hurler Gavin Floyd (8-4, 3.39), to bounce back off a less than stellar effort last time out, when he gave up five runs in 5 1-3 innings in a 5-0 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers. The righty thrower previous to that had gone 4-0 with a 3.66 ERA in five starts. Final notes & Key Trends: Indians are 0-7 in Sowers L7 starts as a road underdog. Indians are 1-6 in the last 7 meetings. Play on the White Sox
B!G AL
MONDAY NIGHT NL BASEBALL MASSACRE.
At 9:05pm our selection is on the Colorado Rockies over the San Diego Padres. How bad have things gotten for San Diego? How about getting swept in their last interleague series of the season at the hands of the absolute worst team in the American League? Seattle didn't just beat the Padres over the past three days, they embarrassed them in front of their home crowd at Petco. The final tally for the three-game series was Seatte 18 runs vs. San Diego 6. I'd like to say that the problems for the Pads recently is that interleague play simply doesn't agree with them, and that certainly is true when you look at the fact that this team only won three of eighteen games vs. the AL, the worst IL record in the Majors. But it's more than that as San Diego simply has one of the most anemic offenses in recent memory. Even during their successful run against NL teams in early June prior to the Interleague schedule, there was a stretch where the Padres scored only 2 runs per game in five of six contests (although they actually won four of those games). Part of this lackluster performance is due to injuries (San Diego has had plenty) and part is just a plain old lack of talent. This is the type of offense that is tailor-made for a young, hard-throwing lefty like Colorado's Jorge De La Rosa. De La Rosa has 22 K's in his last three games, including a ten strikeout performance on June 19 against the Indians. The Padres' hitters are even worse against southpaws this season, batting a pathetic .238 against them. Take the Rockies.
AMERICAN LEAGUE MONDAY NITE ANNIHILATION.
At 8:10pm our selection is on the Detroit Tigers over the Minnesota Twins. What a way to begin the next phase of American League play just before the All-Star break with two of the AL's hottest teams in a key division series. The Tigers emerge from play vs. the National League almost looking like a completely different team, having won seventeen of their last twenty-two overall, while the Twins just had their ten-game winning streak snapped on Saturday, but came back Sunday with an Interleague-finale shutout against the Brewers and have now won thirteen of their last fifteen games. You could never tell from the record of Tigers righthanded starter Armando Galarraga that Detroit did so poorly in much of the first half of the season. Not only is Galarraga 7-2 with an ERA of 3.32 and only 55 hits allowed in his 76 innings, but perhaps most impressive is the fact that his team is now 10-2, 83%, in games which he's started. Regardless of what happens from here out, if the Tigers end up making the playoffs, nobody deserves more credit than this 26-year-old Venezuelan for the job he did up to this point to keep Detroit in the hunt. The Tigers have also recently gotten a big boost on offense from the return of veteran DH Gary Sheffield. The Twins will send 25-year-old lefty Glen Perkins to the mound, and although he has won his last two starts, they have come against the absolute worst offenses in baseball in San Diego and Washington. Look for the Tiger batters to feast against this inexperienced southpaw as they are hitting a scorching .297 vs. lefties this season. Take Detroit.