EZ WINNERS
3 STAR: (952) ST. LOUIS (-$103) over NY Mets
(Listing Lohse and Maine) (Risking $309 to win $300)
1 STAR: (964) SAN FRANCISCO (+$124) over Chicago
(Listing Zito only) (Risking $100 to win $124)
1 STAR: (972) MINNESOTA (+$105) over Detroit
(Action) (Risking $100 to win $105)
1 STAR: (961) MILWAUKEE (+$108) over Arizona
(Listing Bush and Davis) (Risking $100 to win $108)
Players of America
San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies
The Play: San Diego Padres +110.0
Star Value: 3* (30 Units)
Cleveland Indians vs. Chicago White Sox
The Play: Cleveland Indians +145.0
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants
The Play: Chicago Cubs -125.0
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
SAPKOWSKI 8-2 premium picks run
Premium
WAS Nationals
CHI White Sox
Free picks
COL Rockies
DET Tigers
SCOTT FERRALL
YANKEES -180 over Texas--Mike Mussina is 6-0 in his last 9 starts against the Rangers. NY has won 16 of 24 since opening June with 3 losses in a row. They've always owned Texas. Feldman is 0-7 on the road for the Rangers. He's never won on the road in 43 appearances as both a starter and reliever.
Tampa -145 over Boston--Shields over Masterson as the Red Sox lose their third straight for the first time since May 23-25. Tampa just finished a 5-1 trip and are in first place over Boston in the AL EAST
DETROIT -125 over Minnesota--The Tigers have won 5 straight and are finally over .500 at 41-40. Det's won 15 of 18. They've gone 17-4 since June 7th. Gallaraga is 4-0 since May 23rd
CHISOX -155 over Cleveland--The White Sox have won 4 straight overall. They've won 6 of 7, including a three game home sweep against the Tribe this yr. Gavin Floyd is the take and he's won 4 of his last 5 starts.
Angels -130 over A's--Garland has been tough (4-1 through 10 starts in may & June). The Angles have won 4 of 7 from A's this yr.
Seattle +135 over Toronto--The Mariners upset Halladay and the Jays. Seattle just swept lowly San Diego and the Jays have lost the last 3 Halladay starts. The Mariners have won 5 of 6 and that's hot for them ! Beltre is hitting .432 over the last 9 games and Ichiro went 8 of 14 against the Padres during their sweep this weekend.
LT Profits
Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles Under 9.0
The home-away splits for the Kansas City Royals and the Baltimore Orioles suggest that this should be a relatively low scoring game tonight, and we concur.
The Under is 23-18, 56.1 percent in all Kansas City road games this season with a rather low average combined total score in those games of 8.72 runs per game. Their starter Zack Greinke has become the new ace of the staff this year, with a 3.40 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 106 innings. He has been light out lately with a 1.80 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP his last three starts.
Now Brian Burres has tailed off lately, but he was scratched in his last start and seemed fine while pitching one inning in relief on Thursday, so we feel he is ready to return to his fine early-season form. Also, the Under is 17-14 in Baltimore home games this season, and the Orioles are batting significantly lower vs. right-handers (.252) than they are vs. left-handers (.272).
Burres lost 4-0 to the Royals earlier this season, and we look for the pitchers to dominate again tonight.
Pick: Royals, Orioles Under 9
Seattle Mariners +140
The Seattle Mariners have caught fire since their front office and managerial shake-ups, and even though they are facing one of the best tonight in Roy Halladay of the Toronto Blue Jays, this is still a nice price for the Mariners at home in their current form.
Seattle just finished off a sweep of the San Diego Padres, making them 5-1 in their last six games, all on the road. Sure the Mariners are a disappointing 15-24 at home, but they are playing their best baseball of the season right now, so we see them returning home at this time as a positive, as that home mark only figures to improve from here on out.
Now there starter tonight R.A. Dickey struggled badly in his first three starts this season, but then he suddenly tossed seven scoreless innings while allowing only six hits vs. the New York Mets in his last start.
No, he is not quite that good, but he is better than he looked in his first three outings, so look for another nice start tonight vs. a Toronto offense that scored one run and no runs respectively in two of their games vs. the Atlanta Braves this past weekend. It also helps that the Seattle bullpen has improved lately, and now has a commendable 3.85 collective ERA for the year.
Now make no mistake, Halladay is one of the best, but he does not appear to be completely on his game right now. In fact, he has a high 1.55 WHIP over his last three starts, and the Blue Jays as a team have lost his last three outings. Also, the fact that he is just 8-6 despite a 3/12 ERA and 1.09 WHIP further underscores the struggles of the Jays offense at times this season.
We will ride the hot team as a nice home underdog vs. the great but slumping starter in this spot.
Pick: Mariners +140
Tony Karpinski
Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles
The Kansas City Royals' quest to get out of last place hit a snag in their final two games of interleague play against their intrastate rivals. Still, the Royals will be looking to win six straight road games for the first time in more than nine years on Monday when they begin an eight-game trip by facing the Baltimore Orioles. Zach Greinke hasn't started against the Orioles since 2004, when he faced them twice, going 0-2 with an 11.88 ERA. David DeJesus could be out of the lineup for Kansas City on Monday after leaving Sunday's game with a bruise in his rib cage he sustained on a collision at home plate. THis could be costly, so we'll back the yardbirds in this one. Play Baltimore
Tom Freese
Cleveland at Chicago
Chicago is 36-16 their last 52 games as favorites and they are 8-2 their last 10 games when playing Game 1 of a series. The White Sox are 37-17 their last 54 home games and they are 8-0 with Gavin Floyd vs. an opponent that scored scored 5 or more runs in their last game. The Pale Hose are 6-1 their last 7 games vs. the Indians. Cleveland is 5-12 their last 17 games vs. righty starters and they and they are 8-20 their last 28 games as underdogs. The Indians are 0-6 with Jeremy Sowers as road dogs of +110 to +150. PLAY ON CHICAGO
Nelly
Oakland + over Los Angeles
Oakland is a winning team on the road this season and this will be a big opportunity for the A’s to close the gap in the AL West. Oakland was crushed on Sunday but that could serve as a motivating factor entering this series. The Angels have scored just one run in the past three games as the offense continues to struggle, batting just .256 on the season. Oakland also has low batting numbers but the A’s play in one of the lowest scoring ballparks in baseball and have had a home-heavy early season schedule. The Angels are a great road team but the results at home have been fairly marginal. Greg Smith has solid overall numbers for the A’s this season and he has pitched well in two starts against Los Angeles this season. Jon Garland has significantly worse numbers at home with a losing record and an ERA approaching 5.00. In his last home start against the A’s he allowed seven runs in a 14-2 loss. Look for Oakland to deliver the underdog win here as this is a bad situation for the Angels.
Ben Burns
Los Angeles Dodgers at Houston Astros
Prediction: Houston Astros
Both teams won two of three in their final Interleague series. The Dodgers lost by a run (1-0!) yesterday though, while the Astros won by one. Playing at home, with their ace on the mound, I look for the Astros to have an advantage on the mound and for them to continue their recent positive momentum. Eric Stults deserves some credit, as he has pitched well since joining the Dodgers rotation. However, let's keep in mind that it's still been only two starts, which is a very small sample size. For his big league career, a span of just 71 innings, he's still got a poor 4.67 ERA, going 4-4. Note that he was just a 15th round draft pick in 2002, so it isn't like he was supposed to be some kind of "can't miss" prospect.
On the other hand, despite a sub-par first half, Oswalt is still an impressive 118-62 with a stellar 3.19 ERA for his outstanding career. He's been pitching much better lately than this year's record/stats show and he's coming off back to back quality starts. Last time out, he held a powerful Texas lineup to three runs through seven complete innings. However, the Astros couldn't provide him with any run support. Two starts ago, he limited the Rays to five hits and two runs through 7 2/3 innings, earning a 4-2 victory. That start came at Tampa, which is worth mentioning as the Rays have been very tough to beat there. Oswalt had 10 K's to just two walks in those two starts. Looking back further and we find that Oswalt has now allowed three earned runs or less in six straight starts, averaging nearly seven innings during that span.
The last time that Oswalt faced the Dodgers, he allowed just one run through eight complete innings, earning the victory in a 4-1 Houston win. The last time that he faced the Dodgers here in Texas, Oswalt allowed two runs through 6 1/3 innings, earning the victory in a 4-2 Houston win. Overall, the Astros are 7-2 the last nine times they were a host in this series. Considering that series success here AND the fact that the Dodgers are a money-burning 11-17 (-7.2) the last 28 times they were coming off a shutout loss, I feel that the current price is reasonable.
FRANK ROSENTHAL
951 NYM-105
957 DODGERS UNDER 8.5
959 PADRES OVER 9.5
965 KC UNDER 9
970 RAYS-140
977 JAYS-150
Lee Kostroski
New York Mets @ St. Louis
PICK: St. Louis
The Cardinals have won seven of the last eight Kyle Lohse starts and after he had a hard time finding a team during the winter, things have worked out perfectly in St. Louis and Lohse may see an All-Star invite. Lohse owns a 1.00 WHIP at home and a 3.10 ERA and he can deliver another great outing against the Mets tonight. The Mets are hitting just .248 in the last ten games and after a big win on Sunday against the Yankees this might be a tough game coming off such a big series and travel. The Mets also endured a double-header on Friday to add to wear on the team.
St. Louis has played 18 of the last 24 games away from home but the Cardinals have gained ground on the Cubs and still maintained a solid level of play. The Cardinals own a solid winning record at home while the Mets are five games below .500 on the road despite decent road results in the last few years. The Cardinals are one of the top hitting teams in baseball with a .274 team average and with Albert Pujols back in action this is a team that can put up big numbers.
John Maine has delivered very average results for the Mets this season. His numbers are much better at Shea Stadium and New York has lost five of his last eight starts. Maine has seen the number of walks allowed rise a bit this season and he could face a tough game against a Cardinals team that is eager to be back home. The Cardinals own one of the best records in the National League yet are still not valued like a top team, take advantage of a cheap price against an inconsistent Mets team.
Terron Chapman
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Boston Red Sox
If there was any question as to whether the Tampa Bay Rays have arrived, then the answer according to those who make the lines is yes. In the history of the series between the two, the Rays have never been tagged with the chalk, but find themselves as a solid favorite for game 1 of their three game set with the division rival Boston Red Sox tonight.
It will be interesting to see how the young Rays respond tonight when expected to win as opposed to no one except those in the clubhouse giving you a chance. Now don't get me wrong the Rays deserve to be favored tonight. They are 30-13 in home games this year, including 9-5 as a home fave of -125 to -150. The home team has won all twelve meetings between the two this year. But the pressure the young Rays will feel tonight, will be different. This will be the first meeting between the two since the bench clearing brawl in Boston. Add in the fact that this series will decide first place in the AL east standings and you have yourself a real pressure cooker for the home team.
The Rays will send James Shields to the mound with hopes he can continue his strong pitching at home. The right hander is 3-1 at home this season with a 1.99 ERA. However since his lone win against the Red Sox on April 27th, the right hander has been tagged for 11 earned runs in just 4 2/3 innings in two starts against the Sox since. The Rays are just 1-6 in Shields last 7 starts against the Red Sox.
The Red Sox will hand the ball to young Justin Masterson who will be making his second start against the Rays and first in Tampa. He allowed 6 hits and 4 earned runs in 6 innings pitched of a 7-4 Red Sox win back on June 3rd. In two road starts this year, he pitched well and is 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA on the road this season.
The Red Sox come into this game with a chip on the shoulder and will be out to prove that they are still the team to beat. Tonight may be their best chance to steal one and we can hold our hat on the fact that in game 1's after a loss this season, the Red Sox are 9-2.Play on the Boston Red Sox for 1 unit.
JB's COMPUTER PICKS
St. Louis Cardinals -105
Tampa Bay Rays -140
Chicago White Sox -160
Los Angeles Angels -125
GINA
Texas Rangers at New York Yankees
The Yankees have won eight of the last nine games versus Texas and nine of the last 12 at Yankee Stadium.
New York will send Mike Mussina to the hill. The right-hander is 4-1 with a 3.69 ERA in his last six starts and is 6-0 with a 2.72 ERA in his last nine against the Rangers. Texas will counter with Scott Feldman. The right-hander is 0-2 with a 4.88 ERA in his last eight starts. Feldman pitched one-third of an inning in his only career appearance against the Yankees.
Go with the Yankees at home with Mussina on the hill. New York has won five of Mussina's last 6 starts against Texas.
New York Yankees -180
Michael Cannon
Kansas City -110 at BALTIMORE
Let’s back the Royals on the road over the Orioles as our free play for Monday.
Kansas City has really started to show signs of turning the corner, despite losing its last two games over the weekend. The Royals are still 11-3 over their last 14 games and will be looking to win six straight road games for the first time in more than nine years tonight at Camden Yards.
Brian Burres will start for Baltimore and to say he’s been roughed up recently would be an understatement. The left-hander has a 10.22 ERA in his last six outings, and lost to the Royals back on May 11, so Kansas City is already familiar with him.
The Royals will counter with Zack Greinke, who is 7-4 with a 3.40 ERA on the season. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in his last three starts, with 22 strikeouts in 20 innings.
Take the Royals as they grab the road win.
2♦ KANSAS CITY