Vegas Runner
HOU (-150) vs LOS 3* MLB BEST BET of the DAY
CWS (-150) vs CLE 2* ML WAGER
OAK (+125vs ANH 2* ML WAGER
COL / SDP Over 9.5 1* TOTAL
NYY / 967 Under 10* TOTAL *
2* AFL PLAYOFFS "HEAVY HITTER" :
OVER 118.5 GRP/ARZ (2*)
3* AFL PLAYOFFS BEST BET of the DAY
GRAND RAPIDS +1.5
Rocco Vincintore
5000* Arena Football Wild Card Play Of The Year
Cleveland -3.5
John Ryan
10* ARI Over 9.5
Jeff Benton
15 Dime: ASTROS
5 Dime: PIRATES
5 Dime: NATIONALS
Greg Shaker
Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins - Tigers (Galarraga/Perkins) -113 | Unit Value: 2
Note: We have 2 very hot teams tonight in the Twin Cities but a decided advantage tonight for the visitors as they face a less than average lefty. Detroit has won 17 of 21 but more importantly, they have beat southpaws 41 of the last 59 times. That does include Zito, Wolf and Francis most recently and in those game, the Tigers scored 19 times. Detroit is averaging 41 points higher on the road verses Southpaws, and have maintained a +300 Batting average verses them over the last 22 games. Galarraga has far superior pitching numbers including one of the best Innings/Hits Ratios in either league. He is also throwing well of late with 2 No Runs appearances in his last 3. He is coming off a sub-par performance verses St Louis and we have seen him comeback from those with a solid outing 3 out of 3 times. We do not have the better Pen for this contest, but we do have the advantage over the first 2/3 of the game and we have that in a big way. I will lay the small number.
Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks - Brewers (Bush/Davis) 114 | Unit Value: 2
Note: This is not going to be a popular play today but the fact is, the Brewers love to face lefties. They hit them 32 points higher when on the road and they love to hit Davis. The lefthander, who spent three plus seasons with the Brewers from 2003 to 2006, is 0-1 with a 5.79 ERA in three starts against the Brewers since being traded to Arizona before the 2007 season. The Brew Crew know this guy very well and they will plate some runs tonight. Arizona is having trouble plating anything batting right at the .200 mark over the last 10 games and scoring just 24 runs during this stretch. They will face a thrower that has found his groove. Bush has put together two of his best starts of the year in notching back to back victories for the first time since July 6 and 16 of last year. After limiting Toronto to one run and two hits in eight innings of an 8 to 7 win June 19, the right-hander gave up one run and four hits in seven innings of a 4-3 win over Atlanta on Tuesday. He is getting ahead on the count now after some adjustments with his pitching coach. His work verses AZ has been very good, posting a 3.55 ERA in four starts. The DBacks are doing a lot of things wrong right now after a strong start to the year and that includes their Pen which is failing miserably of late. We have some great value here tonight and a good situation for the visitors in many respects.
MLB: New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals - Mets (Maine/Lohse) -102 | Unit Value: 2
Ethan Law
PLAY 1/2* UNIT (1%) ON YANKEES/RANGERS OVER 10 +$100
PLAY 1/2* UNIT (1%) ON SEATTLE +$135
nick bookiekiller parsons
CLE (+138) vs CWS
Indians Coming off of a sweep of their hated cross-town rivals, the Cubs, there is simply no way for the White Sox to avoid being a little flat tonight. Last nights 5-1 win over the Cubs capped a three game sweep for the Sox and it was a big revenge sweep too as the ChiSox had lost all three games at Wrigley Field earlier in the month. Now there is no time to rest for the Sox as the Indians come to town. Cleveland is off of back to back losses but previously they had won two straight and outscored their opponents 10-1 in those two victories. Jeremy Sowers gets the start for the Indians tonight and hes coming off of a tough, hard-luck loss as he pitched quite well in his most recent start but he was out-dueled by Barry Zito of the Giants. Sowers shows an 0-3 record in the books so far this season but he has allowed just three earned runs in four of his six starts this season. A big part of the issue is that, other than one nine run explosion, the Indians just havent given him much run support as theyve tallied just 13 runs in the other five starts Sowers has made this season. Look for this lack of run support to quickly turn around tonight as Cleveland faces Gavin Floyd of the White Sox. The ChiSox right-hander had produced very impressive numbers at home through early June but he has since regressed. It was quite likely that Floyd was not going to be able to maintain his torrid pace at home. That said, it should come as no surprise that, even though two of his last three starts have been at U.S. Cellular Field, Floyd has allowed 16 runs (9 earned) on 16 hits (5 homers) in his last three starts! Floyd got the win, but was hit quite hard, in his lone start versus Cleveland this season. As for Sowers, he allowed just one hit in six innings but got a no-decision in his lone career start against the White Sox. Behind a strong start from Sowers, and more struggles for Floyd, the Indians get the upset win in this match-up!
Robert Ferringo
4-Unit Play. Take #958 Houston (-145) over Los Angeles Dodgers (8 p.m., Monday, June 30)
The Dodgers looked like trash over the weekend against the Angels and now limp into Houston with a Triple-A lineup. They also didn’t bring their leadoff man, Juan Pierre, on the trip so they’re down another outfielder. Houston played at a high level over the weekend while taking down the Red Sox and this streaky team should remain on a high note. They smash left-handed pitching and although Eric Stults has been outstanding in his first two starts this year he’s coming off a 116-pitch CG. I like to fade pitchers off a CG and I think this is a great spot to pile on against the Dodgers.
2-Unit Play. Take #974 Chicago White Sox (-155) over Cleveland (8 p.m., Monday, June 30)
Hey, stay hot. The White Sox were sharp over the weekend at home against their rivals and with a sizeable pitching mismatch in their favor today I don’t see why they can’t keep it rolling. The Indians really are a disaster. Jeremy Sowers has an ERA of nearly 6.00 and has lost seven of his last 10 starts. The Sox are 37-17 at home and 13-4 in divisional games. Gavin Floyd likely has a bounceback start in him, as he’s been great at home and Chicago is 5-1 in his last six outings.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #976 Los Angeles Angels (-130) over Oakland (10 p.m., Monday, June 30)
I still see the Angels as an automatic play against left-handed pitchers. They are 16-5 overall against southpaws and 8-2 at home against a lefty starter. After a fantastic start, Greg Smith has come down a couple notches over the last month. He’s had an ERA of 6.00 in June while losing three of four starts.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #962 Arizona (-120) over Milwaukee (9:40 p.m., Monday, June 30)
Dave Bush is 7-21 on the road and 5-21 as a road underdog. Conversely, Doug Davis is 18-5 at home and 11-2 as a home favorite. The D-Backs are a disaster right now, but there’s no denying that they’ve been better at home and I don’t see a second sweep of the Snakes by the Brew Crew.
1-Unit Play. Take #954 Cincinnati (-145) over Pittsburgh (7 p.m., Monday, June 30)
Let’s buy low with Aaron Harang. The big righty has been a sinkhole for cash this year, but he’s still 11-4 in his career against the Pirates. His counterpart, Paul Maholm, is 1-4 with a 6.15 ERA on the road this year and is 0-2 with a 5.46 ERA in his career in Cincinnati. The Reds have won two of three series here and could be picking it up.
King Creole
CIN / PIT Over 8.5
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
There's only ONE team in Major League BASEBALL that's 20 game or more over .500 in their O/U results for the 2008 season. And that's the PITTSBURGH PIRATES, who are the BEST 'Over' team in the league at 48-28 O/U on the year. That includes an 'unreal' 27-8 O/U in ALL road games. This is also a pretty high-scoring series, as the Reds and Pirates have gone 12-5-1 O/U in their last 18 games vs each other... including 6-1-1 O/U in the last 8 played IN Cincinnati (2-0-1 O/U THIS season).
PAUL MAHOLM's road starts in 2008 are highlighted by a very high ERA of 6.15 and opponent team batting average of .364 (and 71% OVER the Total). On a more recent note, Pittsburgh tends to score a lot of runs behind him in terms of offensive support. His last 6 starts have seen the Buccos average 7.2 runs per game. His career numbers "In THIS Park" are pretty over-whelming as well. In 5 starts dating back to the 2006 season, his ERA here is 7.07 with an OU record of 4-1 O/U. He's also 6-0-1 O/U in his last 7 starts vs losing teams... 4-1-1 O/U in Game One of a series... and 12-4 O/U vs fellow NL Central opponents.
AARON HARANG is not in typical Harang form. He's gotten ripped up in his last 2 starts... and in FIVE of his last 7 overall. ERA is 8.44 in his last two... and 7.58 dating back to late May. In 2008 NIGHT starts, his ERA is a full 2 runs HIGHER (5.53) compared to all day starts (3.51). He faced the Buccos once already in 2008, and allowed 6 earned runs (and 10 hits) in only 4 full innings pitched (ERA of 12.50). In 3 HOME starts vs Pittsburgh since the start of last season, his ERA is 6.88 (2-0-1 O/U record). He also 5-1 O/U off a team win... and 6-2-1 O/U at home vs losing teams.
With winds projected to be blowing OUT to right-center field in excess of 15+ MPH... we'll take a bite on the "OVER
wunderdog
Game: Boston at Tampa Bay (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Boston +136 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 5.4)
Ok, so the oddsmakers are now saying that Tampa Bay is for real, but let's not forget that so are the Red Sox. After slipping behind the Rays in the standings, we have to think the Sox will come into this series with a very focused mindest. Justin Masterson has given the Sox good outings in which he has yet to allow more than four runs and the Sox are 5-2 in his seven starts. James Shields has allowed four runs or more in four of his last 10 starts, and has failed to get out of the fourth inning in his last two appearances against the Sox this season, where he has pitched to a 21.20 ERA. The Sox always have value playing as a dog, and we like them in this spot.
Game: Cleveland at Chicago (8:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 9.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Due to injuries and team slumps, the Indians have been punchless this season. They have already amassed a total of 52 games played scoring four runs or less. Facing Gavin Floyd won't make it much easier as Floyd has allowed more than four runs in just two of 15 starts. The White Sox may be a little flat here after pounding the Cubs over the weekend. Jeremy Sowers has made six starts and just one produced runs higher than this total. UNDER is the way to go in this one.
Game: Toronto at Seattle (10:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Seattle +143 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 4.3)
Even bad teams get on a little roll. The Mariners come home feeling good about themselves as they have now won five of their last six. Bats that were sleeping for most of the year have now produced six runs per game in these last six. The road has been a struggle for the Jays where they have posted wins in just two of their last 11 and the offense continues to struggle as they have been shutout six times already this season. Roy Halladay hasn't been the cure either, as the Jays have dropped his last three starts and are just 9-8 on the season with him on the hill. Seattle shows signs of being much closer to the team everyone expected, and this is a good spot as a valued home dog.
Game: Toronto at Seattle (10:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Seattle +1.5 runs -119 (runline) (risk 3 to win 2.5)
Roy Halladay is a good pitcher on a team with a bad offense and spotting a team +1.5 runs has not been working. Halladay has pitched in nine games this season where the Jays have won, but in five of those nine wins, there has been no margin for error as they won by just one run. That leaves the Jays at 4-13 in his 17 starts, playing to the -1.5 runline, so with the M's playing much better, they also get the call on the runline.
Game: Chicago at San Francisco (10:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on San Francisco +126 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 3.8)
You gotta wonder what happened to Barry Zito landing in the NL and the Giants losing his first nine starts. Things have been a bit different results wise, as they are now 4-3 in his last seven starts, and he has had success against this Cubs' lineup pitching to a 3.15 ERA over his career. The Giants have been a much better team than the way they started, as they have now actually played over .500 baseball for 40 games. For the first time all season the Cubs have gone into a slide. They have dropped four straight games and are just 4-8 over their last 12. It hasn't been the best of years for Ted Lilly either, as he pitches to an ERA of close to five. Good opportunity for the Giants to steal one at home.
Game: Chicago at San Francisco (10:20 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on San Francisco +1.5 runs -135 (runline) (risk 4 to win 3)
We also like the value on the San Francisco run line. Despite their overall success this season the Cubs are just 9-16 against the run line on the road after two straight road games. And, Zito is 28-18 at home to the run line vs. teams that outscore their opponents by 0.5+ runs per game. With the Cubbies in the slide they are on, getting +1.5 on the home team at this small price is nice.
Vernon Croy
Washington Nationals vs. Florida Marlins
Pick: Florida Marlins 20 Unit MLB NL Bookie Buster of the Week
20 Units, Take Florida ML, This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and the Nationals are just 15-24 on the road this season. The Nationals are hitting just .225 as a team over their last 7 games while averaging just 3.0 rpg and Florida is 8-1 against the Nationals this season. I look for Ryan Tucker (2-2, 6.75) to bounce back with a strong outing after a couple of rocky starts since the Nationals have not faced him before. The Nationals are just 4-9 as a road dog of +125 to +150 this season and the Marlins are 32-20 in a game where the posted total is 9 to 9.5. Take the Marlins as my MLB NL Bookie Buster of the Week.
John Ryan
Grand Rampage vs. Arizona Rattlers
Pick: Grand Rapids, the OVER and Parlay
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Grand Rapids – AiS shows an 85% probability that Grand Rapids will win this game. I also like the OVER in this game as it is graded as a 3* MAJOR. This opens up an opportunity to also play an optional parlay that I would suggest not to exceed 2* units. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 51-27 for 65% over the past 10 seasons. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses. Arizona defense has not played well at all. Note that Arizona is just 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after allowing 38 points or more in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons. This also projects to be a high scoring game as well with GR having a 92% probability of scoring 60 or more points. Note that GR is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) when they score 56 or more points in a game over the last 3 seasons. GR comes into this game coming off a road win placing them into a very strong role for the OVER. Note that GR is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) in road games off a road win since 1996. GR is also 14-3 OVER (+10.7 Units) revenging a road loss versus opponent over the last 3 seasons. Take GR for 7*, OVER for 3* and an optional 2* parlay of GR and the OVER.
NSA
20* Rays
10* Dodgers
10* Angles
10* Cubs
10* Cards
10* Tigers
JEFFERSONSPORTS
MLB MONDAY
TORONTO-152
HOUSTON-145
Steam On-Line Guaranteed Selections
5000* BASEBALL LATE STEAMER WINNER
Houston w/Oswalt -150