TEDDY JUNE
5* MLB Game of the Day is the Colorado Rockies
5* MLB Total of the Day is the Milwaukee Brewers/Arizona Diamondbacks Over
Larry Ness
My 15* play is on the Chi White Sox at 8:05 ET. The White Sox wrapped up interleague play with a three-game sweep of the Cubs (went 12-6 overall) and return to AL play with a 1 1/2-game lead in the Central over the red-hot Twins. Things are not going as well for the Indians, who won 96 regular season games last year and led the Red Sox 3-1 in the ALCS before losing three straight. The Indians finished interleague play only 6-12 and at 37-45, find themselves tied with the Royals for last-place in the AL Central, 9 1/2-games behind the White Sox. Not to make too many excuses but the Indians have two starting pitchers and three everyday players from last season's team on the DL. This three-game series in Chicago is the opening of an eight-game road trip which also include stops at Minnesota and Detroit, arguably MLB's hottest teams. The Indians haven't had much luck with the White Sox this year, as after winning the first two meetings of '08 with Chicago, the Indians have lost SIX of the last seven. Cleveland takes a 15-23 road record into Chicago, where the White Sox are 27-11 on the season, outscoring teams by more than two runs per game (5.85-3.77). The pitching matcup doesn't favor the Indians either, as lefty Jeremy Sowers will take on Chicago's Gavin Floyd. Sowers was 1-6 with a 6.42 ERA in 13 starts for Cleveland last year (team was 4-9) and opened this year in the minors. He was called up on April 26 for a start against the Yankees (sent back the next day) and then re-called on May 16 for a start at Cincy (sent back down the next day again!). Sowers has now been with the team since June 8 and this will be his fifth consecutive start, as part of the rotation. However, in his six starts this year (including those two earlier 'spot' starts), he's 0-3 (team is 2-4), allowing 47 hits in only 31.2 innings with a 5.97 ERA. In three road starts, his ERA is 6.60. That hardly matches up well with Floyd, who has been a major surprise. Floyd entered this season with a four-year mark of 8-10 with a 6.30 ERA, including going 1-5 with a 5.27 ERA for the White Sox last year (team was 3-7 in his 10 starts). So no one could have predicted his '08 performance, which has him 8-4 with a 3.39 ERA in 15 starts (team is 10-5). In his eight home starts this year, he's 5-1 with a 2.70 ERA (Indians are 7-1). Not much here that DOESN'T point to an easy Chicago win. Team Mismatch of the Week 15* Chi White Sox.
Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error-MLB
My Oddsmaker's Error is on the Arz D'backs at 9:40 ET. When Dave Bush took the mound on June 19 for a home start against the Blue Jays, he had made 12 previous starts in '08, going 2-7 with a 5.85 ERA (team was 4-8). So naturally, he took a no-hitter into the eighth inning. The bullpen almost blew the game for him (Brewers won just 8-7) but he got the win and followed that effort by winning his first road game of the season in his next start at Atlanta (7 IP / 4 hits / 1 ER). So what's going on? Bush, like the Brewers themselves, has had little success on the road the last three seasons. Bush had made six prior road starts before winning in Atlanta on June 24, going 0-5 with an 8.35 ERA (team was 0-6). That doesn't include a one-inning outing in relief at Houston on May 3 in which he also took a loss. Let's look at Bush's road mark since 2006. The Brewers were 4-13 (5.38 ERA) in his road starts in '06, 6-10 (6.14 ERA) in '07 and including his recent win in Atlanta this year, are 1-6 (7.09) in '08! Now I realize that the D'backs have "come back to the pack" after owning MLB's best record at the end of April (20-8) but it's still difficult to justify Bush being this small of a road underdog with his and Milwaukee's three-year road woes. Arizona is 21-33 since May 1 but the team's real struggles have come on the road, where the D'backs are 8-21, after losing three straight interleague series (seven of nine games) on their just completed trip (scored just 22 runs and hit .209 as a team). However, the team remains a solid 24-15 at home this year, averaging 5.24 RPG. In comparison, the Brewers are 19-24 on the road, allowing 5.09 RPG. The D'backs will send lefty Doug Davis to the mound, a former Brewer. Davis made two early April starts this year and then went on the DL while recovering from surgery for thyroid cancer. He returned on May 23 in Atlanta and was terrific, allowing five hits and one ER in seven innings of a win. He got 'rocked' in his next outing (home to SF) but has since made five more starts. Except for a poor effort at Pittsburgh on June 8 (3.2 IP / 7 hits / 5 ERs), he's pitched well, posting a 1.73 ERA in his other four starts (includes a six-inning effort at Milwaukee in which he allowed just one ER in a no decision). Milwaukee has done well vs lefties this year (15-8) but in away night games against them, is just 3-4, averaging 3.3 RPG. Let's also note that the Brewers are 9-16 in road night games this year, vs all pitchers. As for the D'backs, facing the right-handed Bush here at Chase Field should be good news, as the D'backs are 17-10 at home vs righties in '08, averaging 5.4 RPG. Oddsmaker's Error on the Arz D'backs.
Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-MLB (73.3 percent winner!)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the TB Rays at 7:10 ET. Could anyone have predicted before the start of the '08 season that as Boston opens a three-game series at Tampa on the final day of June, the Red Sox would be trailing the Rays in the AL East? Considering Tampa has NEVER had a winning season in franchise history and that the Rays have finished in last-place in NINE of their 10 previous seasons, I think the safe answer is N-O! However, that's exactly the case, as the Rays sit at 49-32, while the defending champs are 50-34. These teams have already met nine times in '08, with the home team winning each game. What should change here? The Red Sox are 31-10 at Fenway but 19-24 on the road and that includes a 14-22 mark against right-handers. In James Shields, the Red Sox will face a right-hander who's been OUTSTANDING in his home park in '08. Shields has had plenty of road woes this year (6.09 ERA) but in eight home starts, he's allowed just 44 hits and 13 ERs in 58.2 innings for a 1.99 ERA (team is 7-1). That includes beating the Red Sox 3-0 here on April 27, with a complete game two-hitter. Tampa opened the season 4-7 at home but swept the Blue Jays in a three-game 'home' series at Disney's Wide World of Sport complex from April 22-24. The Rays then swept the Red Sox in a three-game series here at Tropicana Field, right after that. The Rays have been near-flawless at home since late-April, going 26-6 over their last 32 home games. The Red Sox will counter with rookie Justin Masterson, who will be making his eighth career start. He's done a solid job so far for Boston, as he'll take a 4-1 mark with a 3.43 ERA into this game. Boston is 5-2 in his seven starts, as Masterson has allowed just 29 hits in his 42 innings, an impressive number. However, he's facing a Tampa team which has become a juggernaut here at Tropicana Field and enters this game 22-8 vs right-handed starters at home in '08 (that's 73.3 percent!), including a 17-6 mark in night games. The Rays are no longer intimidated by anyone (especially at home) and showed they are going to be a "team to be reckoned with" this year, by winning FIVE of six games away from Tropicana this past week (including an impressive three-game sweep of the Marlins in Miami!). Las Vegas Insider on the TB Rays.
Jeff Bonds
HOU (-150) vs LOS
BAL (-102) vs KAN
William Kidd Guaranteed Selections
QUADRUPLE DIME BASEBALL HOME RUN WINNER
St Louis w/Lohse -109
Mike Rose
AFL 3* Cleveland Gladiators on the moneyline
AFL 5* Rampage/Rattlers over 119.5
Alex Smart
MLB 2* Boston Red Sox
INDIAN COWBOY
Detroit Tigers -120
Don't look now but the Tigers are actually a game above .500, hell, the Yankees have only 3 more wins than the Tigers and we have to reach the all-star break so that just goes to show that there is so much baseball that is yet to be played, I like Galaraga a good deal and he comes off a rough start in his last go with overa 7 ERA despite the Tigers winning that game 8-7, on the road the kid is 5-1 with a 1.88 ERA but he has faced Minnesotta twice this year and has lost both times, in fact, Galaraga is 7-2 on the year but both losses come to the Twins Perkins easily defeated the Tigers last time out 7-1 by giving up 7 hits in over 7 innings and defeating Verlander. I do think the kid's luck has run out a bit and I think the Tigers get the better end of the Twins despite being a road game as I don't see Galaraga getting beat up by the Twins for the 3rd straight time this year.
Oakland +115
I love this Oakland team, they sit at 46 wins, 8 games above .500 and they have hard working blue chip players that just bust their tail as management has taken a page out of the Marlins handbook and reduced costs while producing a quality team with winners. Greg Smith has an odd way of giving 2 straight quality starts and then gets roughed up and that is what happend last time as after he had 1.8 ERA performances against Arizona and San Fran on the road, he got roughed up at home against Philly as he had over a 6 ERA in that start. Garland defeated Smith 5-3 last time around and is 1-1 against Oakland this year, I just don't know if Garland has 3 straight quality starts in him as he has trouble all year putting together 3 straight quality starts in a row.
White Sox RL +135
Despite losing his last 2 starts, Sowers ERA has gotten better in those 2 starts, but man, he is giving up countless hits - just the last 2 starts alone he has given up 19 hits in 13 innings, not to mention Cleveland can't hit worth a lick which doesn't help their cause any either, Floyd had a rough start in his last start as he had a 6.75 ERA against the Dodgers and a 6 ERA against the Indians last time out but did win 6-5 over Westbrook, I think Floyd has a bounce-back here and I think the whitesox get it at done at home, possibly by a run-line here, after all, each time Floyd has had a rough start, he has come back strong, 5.69 ERA start against the Rockies only to come back to have a 1.59 ERA against Pittsburgh in his next start and he had a 6 ERA on the road against Cleveland only to come back home and have a 2.57 ERA against Kansas City.
Dave Mailinsky
TOP OF THE TICKET NL SIDE HOU
TOP OF THE TICKET AL SIDE CWS
KB HOOPS
5 units Arizona -120 **POD**
5 units Pittsburgh OVER 9 +105
5 units Florida OVER 9 +105
4 units Texas +175
4 units Seattle +145
Computer Crushers Guaranteed Selections
5000 UNIT BASEBALL CRUSHER WINNER
Toronto w/Halladay -150
Fairway Jay
MLB 3* Pittsburgh Pirates