STU FINER
Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays
Not much left to say about the Rays. This team is just on a fantastic run. This isn’t a run that should be taken lightly. This is a run that shows how strong of a team they have become. The Tampa Bay Rays are on a seven game winning streak. Even better than that record is the fact that this team is coming off an 11-1 mark.
The Rays haven’t done it with any smoke and mirrors either. They have pitched well, they have played solid defense and they sure have hit. So far in these first three games against the Royals they have scored a total of 23 runs. They have actually out-scored the Royals 23-4 in these first three games.
Matt Garza is more than a capable starter. He is 7-4 on the season and has one of the lower ERA’s in the American League. A 3.47 mark and a whip of just 1.17 shows us how real this guy is. Take the home team, it doesn’t matter how high the line is.
Tampa Bay Rays (-)
Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox
Sure the Red Sox played late last night but they return to the place where they do just one thing and that one thing is winning. The Red Sox still sport the best home record in all of baseball. This team has found a way despite their injuries to still be the second best team in baseball. At home this team is 31-10 and they pour it on.
The Red Sox average over 5.60 runs per game in their building. They are also hitting an amazing .290 as a team in Fenway. Don’t you think for a second they are just a team that scores runs and does nothing else in Boston? They have an ERA of just 3.38 and allow less than four runs per ball-game.
The Twins have been great there is no question about that but the Red Sox at home with Dice K on the mound is too good to pass up. This is a guy that has lost a total of one game all season. The Sox are 11-3 in his starts and he will get the job done here tonight.
Boston Red Sox (-)
LA Angels at Texas Rangers
This line is just too good to pass up. The Rangers are coming off a big win yesterday against the Orioles. In a slugfest they came out victorious. They put up 11 runs and held on to win that game 11-10. That is the Rangers M-O. They are a big time offensive team and they don’t hide that fact. They go out there and they give up runs but they can put them up with the best of them.
The Rangers lead all of baseball in runs scored and they are top three in almost all important statistics. This line-up hits over .280 as a team. They have hit almost 110 home-runs. They have an OPS that leads all of baseball .806. We could go on and on about their offense but we think you get the hint.
The Angels can’t match the Rangers offense. The Angels are just 22nd in the league in runs scored and they hit just .257 as a team. Look for this game to be high-scoring and look for the Rangers to take care of business at home.
Texas Rangers (+)
Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics
Real tough loss for the Mariners yesterday. They had to play fifteen innings against the Tigers and came up on the losing side of things. In fifteen innings the Mariners managed just one run and six hits. The Tigers didn’t do much better but they were able to win a tight one run game.
After that game you expect them to fly to Oakland and beat a tough left-handed pitcher? We just don’t see it. The Athletics are coming off a tough loss themselves. They head home though and they will bounce back. The Athletics sport a 27-21 mark in Oakland. The Mariners on the other hand are just 16-26 on the road. Jarrod Washburn goes for the Mariners. He is just 4-7 on the season and the Mariners are just 5-11 in his sixteen starts.
Dana Eveland has been throwing the ball exceptional all season. Look for him to get his seventh win and the Athletics bounce back from a tough loss to a first place team.
Oakland Athletics (-)
National League
Houston Astros at Pittsburgh Pirates
This line is just too good to pass up for the Pirates. The Astros are coming in here and they are exhausted. Houston was part of a 17 inning game last night. The Astros used everyone on their team (outside of their starting pitchers). They ended up using seven pitchers in this contest. These pitchers didn’t throw a batter or two. Each and every pitcher threw over 20 pitches and over an inning. Some of the relievers even threw two or three innings.
With no off night the Astros have to head in to Pittsburgh. The Pirates are as under-rated as any team at home. This is a team 25-19 at home this season and they have been able to have a very positive return this season.
The Pirates can hit folks, make no mistake about it. Even last night in a game the Pirates lost, but they pounded eight hits and six runs. The Pirates are the third best offense in the National League. They have hit 90 home runs this season. Look for the Buckos at home to take care of the Astros. Houston is not a bad team, but they aren’t a team that makes you profits on the road.
Pittsburgh Pirates (-)
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
A big game from the New York Mets last night. In fact the Mets have played three straight solid games against the Phillies. They lost a tough game 3-2 opening night, but they then bounced back to win the game Saturday 9-4 and then followed that up with an impressive extra inning win 4-2 on Sunday.
Pedro hasn’t been great this season, there is no doubt about that, but it is time for him to turn it around. Pedro always takes a while to get going during a season, well this is no different. Pedro didn’t have April or May to get in to his groove. His groove is about to hit right now.
Last start against the Cardinals he did allow seven hits and five runs, but most of that damage came in the first inning. Pedro cruised after the first inning allowing just one solo home run and one run in total. The Mets are better than a .500 baseball team. They will take the game and the series.
New York Mets (+)
Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers
Have to like the Brewers here tonight at home. This is a team that is starting to pick up their play as of late. Sure all the talk is about the Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals but that is all about to change. Late last night the word came down that the Brewers are making a big push for it this season. The Brewers have agreed in principal for starter C.C. Sabathia. They are giving up their best prospect but it will be well worth it.
A trade like this lifts the entire team each and every day. It is not just the games where C.C. Sabathia gets the ball. He immediately brings a cache to the Brewers and he makes them from pretenders to contenders in just a few moments.
The Brewers have been playing solid baseball for a while now. In their last 26 games as a favorite (23 home games) they are 19-7. When these guys are supposed to win, they do win. Seth McClung goes tonight for the Brew Crew. He is 5-3 on the season and he hasn’t lost a start in close to a month.
Milwaukee Brewers (-)
Florida Marlins at San Diego Padres
Look for the Padres to get the job done here tonight. They are coming off an impressive series against the first place Diamondbacks. They were able to take two of three from those Diamondbacks. They did it with timely hitting and good pitching. There only loss came yesterday and that was a 3-2 game that they were in to the entire time.
The Padres are still a very capable baseball team especially at home. Greg Maddux goes for the Padres here tonight and he has been pitching excellent. Don’t look at his record, because at 3-6 it is very deceiving. The Padres are 9-9 in Maddux’s 18 starts. Greg has an ERA right around 4. The Padres haven’t played well at home, but that will all change tonight. Take the bull dog and the Padres.
San Diego Padres (-)
Atlanta Braves at LA Dodgers
All over the Dodgers here tonight. The Dodgers return home after a week long road trip. They really have picked it up lately. You aren’t going to know by their record but Los Angeles is in prime position to win this NL West. On the road trip they went 5-2. That included four straight victories against the Giants and the Astros. The Dodgers were able to win both series. Two against the Giants and three against the Astros.
The Dodgers bats was what needed to get going and they did. We all know the Dodgers can pitch. After all they have an ERA that is ranked fourth in all of baseball. On the road trip though they had run outputs of: Seven, Four, Five, Ten and Five. Those are incredible numbers for the Dodgers who rank 24th in the league in runs scored.
We all know the Dodgers have a ton of talent. LA is also starting to get healthy. Getting back Nomar and Andruw Jones will only help this team. Look for LA to rattle off a nice winning streak before the all-star break.
LA Dodgers (-)
SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
N.Y. Mets (44-44) at Philadelphia (48-41)
These two N.L. East rivals conclude a four-game set with the Mets sending veteran Pedro Martinez (2-2,7.39 ERA) to the hill to battle the Phillies’ Adam Eaton (3-6, 4.79) at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia.
New York scored a 4-2, 13-inning victory on Sunday and has won six of the last eight in this rivalry after losing nine in a row dating back to last season. Overall, the Mets have alternated wins and losses on their current road trip, while the Phillies have won four of their last six overall despite yesterday’s setback.
Philadelphia is on streaks of 36-17 at home against teams with a losing record, 8-2 in the fourth game of a series and 6-1 on Mondays. Meanwhile the Mets are on slides of 1-7 on Mondays and 4-8 against N.L. East rivals.
Martinez has been beaten up in his last three starts, going 0-2 with a 10.20 ERA and the Mets have lost all three and four of his last five. In St. Louis on Wednesday he gave up five runs in five innings of an 8-7 loss, dropping to 1-1 with an 8.37 ERA in five road starts. Also, Martinez is 7-5 with a 3.27 ERA in 22 career games against Philadelphia.
The Phillies have lost three of Eaton’s last four outings, with the victory coming on Tuesday in Atlanta as the veteran right-hander gave up two runs in five innings of a 7-3 win. The Mets have seen Eaton nine previous times, going 1-8 in those contests, with Eaton posting personal numbers of 5-0 with a 3.29 ERA. That includes a 5-4 home victory against New York on April 20, with Eaton yielding four runs in five innings.
Philadelphia is on runs of 5-2 with Eaton on the hill at home and 5-2 when he faces N.L. East rivals. Meanwhile the Mets are just 2-8 when Martinez faces a winning team on the road and 1-6 when he goes up against N.L. East foes.
The Mets have topped the total in 16 of Martinez’s last 22 road outings, including four of five this year, and the over is 6-0 on the road when he’s faced a team with a winning record and 4-1 in his last five outings against Philly. For the Phillies, the under trends include 17-5-1 in Eaton’s last 23 starts overall, 10-1 when he pitches at home, 4-1 against the N.L. East and 5-1 versus the Mets.
Finally, as a team, Philadelphia is on under streaks of 22-9 overall, 9-3 against the N.L. East and 5-1 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Minnesota (50-38) at Boston (52-39)
The streaking Twins pay a visit to Fenway Park and send Scott Baker (5-2, 3.65 ERA) to the mound to take on Red Sox right-hander Daisuke Matsuzaka (9-1, 3.12) in the opener of this three-game series.
Minnesota has won 19 of its last 23 games, including five in a row after a weekend sweep of the Indians, which was capped off by Sunday’s 4-3 come-from-behind win inside the Metrodome. The Twins are 5-1 in their last six on the highway and have gone 22-7 lately against right-handed starters. Minnesota also has had success against the Red Sox recently, winning 11 of the last 17 series clashes, including three of four in Minnesota in May.
Boston concluded a four-game set in New York on Sunday night with a 5-4, 10-inning loss to the Yankees, splitting the series with their division rivals and concluding a 3-7 road trip. But the Red Sox are now back at Fenway, where they have dominated the opposition, going 40-12 in their last 52 (31-10 this year), and they are 28-11 in their last 39 contests against the A.L. Central.
Baker is 3-0 with a 3.50 ERA in his last three starts, and the Twins have won six of his last nine outings. On Tuesday, he held the Tigers to three runs over six innings of a 6-4 victory. He’s only faced the Red Sox once, in a relief appearance, and gave up one run on three hits in three innings.
Matsuzaka is 5-1 with a 4.10 ERA at Fenway this season and he’s unbeaten under the lights at 6-0 with a 2.62 ERA. However, Boston has lost three of his last four outings, but he was tough in his last two, allowing one run on four hits over his last 10 innings of work. He’s beaten the Twins twice, including May 10 this season when he surrendered two runs on six hits in seven innings of a 5-2 victory. In both starts combined against Minnesota, he’s 2-0 with a 2.40 ERA in 15 innings of work.
With Matsuzaka on the hill, Boston is on runs of 16-5 overall, 17-5 at home and 5-0 when he faces team from the A.L. Central. With Baker pitching, the Twins are 7-2 in the last nine against the A.L. East and 5-2 in the past series openers.
The under is on runs of 7-2 when Baker faces a winning team, 5-2 in his last seven overall and 6-2-1 when Matsuzaka faces squads from the A.L. Central. Also, in head-to-head matchups between these teams, the under is 18-8-2 in the last 28 overall and 4-1 in the last five at Fenway Park.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and UNDER
Jimmy The Moose
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
The Mets are 4-8 in their last 12 games vs. NL East opponents. New York sends Pedro Martines to the mound and he hasn't been sharp of late. Over his last 3 starts, all Mets losses, his ERA is 10.20. NY is 1-4 in his last 5 road starts. The Mets have lost 8 of his last 10 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Phillies have won 4 of their last 6 games. In their last 15 games vs. a team with a losing record the Phillies are 12-3. The Phillies have won 5 of Eaton's last 7 home starts. In his last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record Philadelpia is 6-2. The Mets are 4-7 in their last 11 trips to Philadelphia. The Mets have lost Pedro's last 4 starts vs. the Phillies. Play on the Philadelphia Phillies -.
Marc Lawrence
Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers host the Braves in the first of a three game series in Los Angeles Monday night as they look to avenge a three game series weep suffered at Atlanta in April earlier this year. Mondays have been good to the Dodgers as evidenced by their 13-5 mark of late, including 5-1 their last six at home. With Hiroki Kuroda 4-2 at home with a 3.00 ERA, as opposed to 3-6 away with a 4.29 ERA, we'll stay at home with Kudoda and the Dodgers here tonight.
Robert Ross
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies battled back to tie the Mets in the 9th yesterday before falling in xtra frames. All in all a good effort. They face Pedro in this one who has a 10.20 ERA in three starts off the DL. Supporting angles says to Play On - Home teams (PHILADELPHIA) - starting a pitcher who walked 5 or more hitters last outing, ice cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 20 games(39-21 over the last 5 seasons, 65%) and Play Against - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (NY METS) - average offensive team (4.3 to 4.8 runs/game) against an average starter (ERA=4.20 to 5.20)-NL, in July games (60-25 over the last 5 seasons, 70.6%). Take Philadelphia!
Big Al Mcmordie
Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers
Prediction: Over
At 8:05pm our member selection is on the Los Angeles Angels and the Texas Rangers 'over' the total. The Angels head into the week before the break with the second best record in the American League behind only the red-hot Tampa Bay Rays. But the Angels may in fact be the best team in the league with more experience than their younger AL East counterpart. One way that experience shows is on the road where the Angels have by far the best record in the league at 27-15 to go with their 25 wins in their home park. Los Angeles also has the best closer in baseball in Francisco "K-Rod" Rodriguez, who is on pace to break the all-time Major League saves record. The Texas Rangers look to head into the break with a winning record and surprisingly if they do, it would be the fourth time in the last five years that they have been able to do so. But although Texas has one of the best offenses in baseball, their pitching is once again extremely suspect. Their relief pitching in particular has been very unreliable lately, and with their ugly 11-10 win on Sunday, this team has now given up double-digit runs in three of their last four games, and an unbelievable total of 41 runs during this time. The Rangers have gone over the total in 35 of 59 games vs. right-handed starters, and the Angels have gone 'over' in 24 of Ervin Santana's last 36 road starts. Take the 'over'.
Scott Ferrall
MINNESOTA +150 over Boston--The Red Sox played Sunday night in the Bronx and the Twins are unbeatable right now. Take Baker in the upset special of the night at Fenway. Baker is 5-2 and he'll stun Dice K. UNDER 9 RUNS
Texas +125 over LA Angels--Another one no one thinks will happen. The Rangers can go toe to toe with anybody. Ervin Santana will be a heavy favorite and all the action will be on him. I'm on Mendoza and the Texas bats. OVER 10 RUNS
OAKLAND -155 over Seattle--The A's had it rough in Chicago over the weekend and will take it out on the Mariners. Eveland over Washburn and THE OVER 8 RUNS
Chris Jordan
Kansas City at TAMPA BAY
Tampa Bay will destroy the Royals today – it’s that simple. Starting right-hander Matt Garza is in triple revenge against Kansas City (none of the losses were this season), and he comes in off two dominating performances, including last Tuesday’s seven-inning, scoreless performance against the defending champion Red Sox. He’s given up just one earned run over his last two starts, spanning 16 innings, and he’s 5-1 at home with a 2.16 ERA there.
We lay the run and a half against a team that has now lost seven of nine after getting drilled by the Rays yesterday. Kansas City is sending Gil Meche to the hill with a 3-5 road record, and 4.29 ERA to go along with it. He is 0-1 in his last three starts against the Rays, and has given up nine earned runs spanning 20 innings. The right-hander comes in off a loss at Baltimore, which tapped him for four earned runs in six frames.
With the Rays on absolute fire once again – they’ve won seven in a row and 10 of 11 – I’ll lay this run line with no problem today.
3♦ DEVIL RAYS RUN LINE
Bobby Maxwell
L.A. Angels -125 at TEXAS
Ervin Santana seems to have put it all together this season and was named to his first All-Star game Sunday and he'll show why the Rangers.
Santana (9-3, 3.28 ERA) has won only once in his last five starts but he's one of the AL leaders in strikeouts with a106. In those last four starts, he's allowed two earned runs in two of them but his offense has let him down.
For his career he is 5-4 in 11 starts against the Rangers and gave up three runs in seven innings of a 7-4 victory on April 14 as the Angels swept a two-game series in Texas.
Los Angeles' offense has been producing lately, scoring 32 runs and winning four of the last five games. And in the series finale Sunday against Toronto the Angels pounded out 11 hits in the 7-1 victory.
Texas has the offense but they have trouble keeping the opposition off the board. The Rangers are averaging six runs a game at home but they are only 21-18 in front of the home crowd. Luis Mendoza (1-2, 4.64) goes for Texas and he is 0-2 with a 6.91 ERA in four starts this season. At New York on Wednesday he gave up six runs in 4 2/3 innings of an 18-7 loss.
Let's play the Angels and their All-Star starter Ervin Santana in this one. Take Los Angeles.
4♦ L.A. ANGELS
Brandon Lang
MONDAY
15 Dime Dodgers
5 Dime Devil Rays Run Line
5 Dime Marlins
Tom Freese
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia starter Adam Eaton is in terrible KW form with more walks than strikeouts in his last 3 starts. Eaton is off a phony win in his last start where he allowed twice as many baserunners than innings pitched and still game away with the win. New York is 7-0 their last 7 games as underdogs of +110 to +150 and they are 9-4 in the last 13 starts made by Pedro Martinez if he has 4 days of rest. The Mets are 5-2 their last 7 road games vs. righty starters and they are 5-2 with Martinez in Game 4 of a series.
Play on: NY Mets
Matt Fargo
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Minnesota Twins
The Twins did it again yesterday so there is no reason to jump off this train. Minnesota has won five in a row and 18 of its last 21 games to remain the hottest team in baseball. Trailing 3-0 on Sunday, the Twins rallied again, scoring three runs in the 7th inning to take the lead for good. Heading to Boston will be a tough task and winning on the road has been rare since 15 of the last 18 games were at home but Minnesota has won three straight five of its last six away from the dome.
Letdowns in baseball are not very common but Boston is in one now. After back-to-back series against Tampa Bay and New York, the Red Sox are in cool down mode right now and it is even worse after the loss last night in extra innings against the Yankees. Boston is a different team at home but the last homestand saw it go an average 3-3. The bullpen comes in as a beaten unit as it has posted a putrid 6.29 ERA over the last 10 games. The Red Sox are now 1-5 in their last six games following a loss.
The pitching staff for the Twins has been the most pleasant surprise and one of those arms comes from Scott Baker. Since returning from the disabled list in June, he has been in control, allowing three runs or less in all six starts with the last five being quality outings. That includes three straight on the road where his ERA is 3.31 compared to his season ERA away from home of 4.58 which was due to one bad outing at Texas. Baker has never started against Boston which is a big edge for the pitcher.
The Red Sox counter with Daisuke Matsuzaka who has not been the same pitcher since returning from the disabled list. He was absolutely shelled in his return against the Cardinals and even though he has allowed only two hits in each of his last two starts, he made in only five innings in each outing and the bullpen ended up blowing one of those. This will be his first game at Fenway since that start against St. Louis and he faces and offense that is hitting .321 over its last 10 games. Play Minnesota Twins 1.5 Units
Stephen Nover
Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers
PICK: Los Angeles Dodgers
The price is right here to back a suddenly hot Dodgers squad against a bad Braves road team that is in a horrendous situational spot.
Atlanta has to travel three time zones to the West Coast after playing a 17-inning home game against Houston on Sunday. The game took 5:35 to complete and that's not including nearly a two-hour rain delay.
The Braves managed to win, but lost their best backup infielder, Omar Infante. They also lost two more relief pitchers to injuries during the weekend, Manny Acosta and Jeff Bennett.
This leaves the Braves' bullpen extremely thin as Rafael Soriano remains out and closer Mike Gonzalez probably won't be available after throwing two innings and 40 pitches on Sunday.
This puts a lot of pressure on Atlanta starter Jorge Campillo, who probably is going to be asked to pitch deep into the game regardless of how good his stuff is. Campillo has allowed 11 earned runs, 20 hits and five walks during his last three starts spanning 18 1/3 innings.
The Braves have been a terrible road team all season, dropping 29 of 41 away contests.
The Dodgers have renewed confidence after winning for the fifth time in their last six games on Sunday. The Dodgers' offense has more punch with the return of veterans Andruw Jones and Nomar Garciaparra.
Hiroki Kuroda gets the start for Los Angeles. He has thrown shutouts in two of his past three starts. The Dodgers also hold a huge bullpen edge.
Sportsbettingstat
L.A. Angels at Texas Rangers
The Angels come into this game after beating the Toronto Blue Jays 7-1, while the Rangers beat the Baltimore Orioles 11-10. The Rangers are playing good baseball lately and are 6-4 in their last 10 games and won 2 games in a row. The Angles are 5-5 in their last 10 games and hold a 6 game lead over the Oakland A's and 7.5 game lead over the Rangers in the AL West. Taking the mound for the Angels will be their Ace Ervin Santana (9-3 3.28 ERA), who in his last outing went 7 innings giving up only 2 earned runs in a no decision. In yesterdays win over the Blue jays the Angels scored 7 runs on 11 hits and left 7 men on base. On defense the Angles gave up 1 run on 6 hits to the Blue Jays. Taking the mound for the Rangers is Luis Mendoza (1-2 4.64 ERA), who in his last outing went only 4 innings giving up 1 earned run in a no decision. In their win yesterday over the Orioles the Rangers scored 11 runs on 14 hits and left 12 men on base. On defense the Rangers allowed 10 runs on 15 hits to the Orioles.
Staff Pick: The advantage in the pitching match up in this game has to go to the Angels, as Santana has been the rock of their rotation and is heading to the All Star game, while Mendoza is looking to get his first win since last September. However, Santana has been struggling lately, as he will try to win for only the 2nd time in over a month and has won only once in 5 starts since June 2, but still ranks among the leaders in strikeouts (106). The Angels have been a hot hitting team recently scoring 32 runs in their last 5 games, which they won 4. The Rangers lead the majors with 488 runs, and are coming off an 11-hit game last night in a win over Baltimore yesterday to close a 4-2 road trip. The problem with the Rangers is their pitching, which ranks near the bottom in team ERA. The Rangers are 3 games above .500 and are 5 back in the AL Wild Card, but they play a hot hitting team in the Angels, which does not bode well for a pitching staff the Rangers have. Look for Santana to bounce back and have a good outing, as the Angles will win game 1 of this series in the Lone Star State.
Angels 9 Rangers 4
JB's Computer Picks
Tampa Bay Rays -200
Los Angeles Angels -130