Locksmith Sports
1 Unit on Mets/Phillies UNDER 10.5
The Under is 22-9 in the Phillies last 31 overall and it is beginning to be a given with Eaton on the hill. The Under is 7-0 in Eaton's last 7 starts as a home favorite, 8-0 in Eaton's last 8 home starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5, 10-1 in Eaton's last 11 home starts, and 17-5-1 in Eaton's last 23 starts overall. 4 of the last 5 meetings have gone Under the number and 5 of the last 6 starts Eaton has had against the Mets have gone Under. Take the Under.
Steve Janus
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Minnesota Twins
This may seem like going out on a limb, but the Red Sox are just 1-5 in their last 6 games after a loss, they are 1-6 in their last 7 against right-handed pitching and they've lost 4 in a row when playing on a Monday. The Twins have won 5 of their last 6 road games, they are 14-3 their last 17 after a win, and when they play a team with a winning record, they've won 7 of their last 9. Sounds like a good situation for an upset on Monday.
Black Widow Sports
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
1* on L.A. Dodgers -125
The Dodgers and Braves are going in opposite directions right now. L.A. has won 5 of their last 6 games to get right back into the NL West Race. Atlanta has dropped 6 of their last 8 contests to fall further behind in the NL East. Jorge Campillo is getting worse as the season passes by with a 1-2 record and a 5.40 ERA in his last 3 games. Hiroki Kuroda is bring his best stuff right before the All-Star break. Kuroda is 2-1 with a 2.95 ERA in his last 3 ball games. Kuroda is 2-0 with a 2.18 ERA in five home starts in 2008. Atlanta is 6-17 (-11.8 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. Take the Dodgers on the Money Line here.
Info Plays
Houston Astros vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
3* on Houston Astros +120
We’ll give Houston a shot Monday against one of the worst teams in the National League. Phillip Dumatrait has been one of the worst pitchers in the league as of late. Dumatrait is 1-1 with a 9.19 ERA over his last 3 outings. He allowed 9 earned runs in just 5 innings in his last start against the White Sox. Runelvys Hernandez is 22-9 vs. teams outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season since 1997. Houston is 7-2 in road games vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits/start this season. Dumatrait already has walked 40 batters in 75 innings so he puts plenty of base runners on via free pass to allow Houston plenty of opportunities to score runs tonight. Bet the Astros on the road.
MROD Sports
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Under
Tampa Bay’s Matt Garza has been making some noise when he’s taken the hill lately. Off a 7 inning shut out performance against Boston, he looks to continue his dominance on the mound against the Kansas City Royals, where he’ll face Gil Meche. Garza has been nothing short of magnificent lately, with an ERA of just 1.64 and a WHIP of just .727. He brings a 7:1 K/BB ratio and just 4 earned runs in his last 3 overall. He’s been able to eat up inning before turning it over to a solid bullpen who yields and ERA of just 1.94 at home. Garza will face a Royals lineup that is putting up a lousy 3.9 runs/game against righties, so there is no doubt that Garza shouldn’t have any problems with this lineup. Gil Meche has been serviceable for the Royals and should be able to pitch well in this game as well; he brings a 2.89 road ERA. Meche should be able to tame this hot Tampa Bay lineup who is only putting up 4.5 runs/game against righties. Take Under 8 runs
Oddswiz
Florida Marlins vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Marlins
Not much to choose from today. We have a short card with some crummy matchups. One game we'll take a look at though is the Marlins at Padres with Ricky Nolasco taking on Greg Maddux.
From a team standpoint, we have one team who has been having trouble winning on the road, the Marlins, against a team that just plain has trouble winning. The Marlins have lost 18 of 26 on the road while the Padres have lost 8 in a row at home and are ties with the Mariners for worst record in baseball. But the value in the play here, is the pitching matchup.
Ricky Nolasco is 4-0 his last 5 starts with an era of 1.96 and he's 7-1 his last 9. Maddux is just the opposite. The aging veteran is 0-4 his last 5 starts against the Marlins with a 4.36 era. So. the feeling here is, we have a slight pitching edge, and an overall team edge, at a small underdog price, so we'll take a shot. When a team has the distinction of having the worst record in baseball, they should be favored against anyone.
DUNKEL
Atlanta at LA Dodgers
The Braves played a 17-inning marathon yesterday and have to hit the road to LA today with just a 3-7 record as a road underdog between +100 and +125. The Dodgers are the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has LA favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-120). Here are all of today's games.
MONDAY, JULY 7
Game 901-902: Houston at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Hernandez) 13.544; Pittsburgh (Dumatrait) 15.193
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-135); Under
Game 903-904: NY Mets at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Martinez) 15.547; Philadelphia (Eaton) 16.353
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-120); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-120); Over
Game 905-906: Colorado at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Jimenez) 13.979; Milwaukee (McClung) 16.080
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-115); Under
Game 907-908: Florida at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Nolasco) 14.586; San Diego (Maddux) 14.340
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+115); Under
Game 909-910: Atlanta at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Campillo) 13.703; LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 16.033
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-120); Over
Game 911-912: Kansas City at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Meche) 14.811; Tampa Bay (Garza) 17.075
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-165); 8
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-165); Under
Game 913-914: Minnesota at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Baker) 15.955; Boston (Matsuzaka) 16.591
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-170); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-170); Over
Game 915-916: LA Angels at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santana) 14.716; Texas (Mendoza) 15.853
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 11
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-135); 10
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+125); Over
Game 917-918: Seattle at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Washburn) 14.566; Oakland (Eveland) 16.017
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-155); 8
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-155); Over
KB WINS
Kansas City/Tampa Bay Under 8
Templer's Sports Picks
Boston
Global Handicapping
Seattle/Oakland Under 8
JAMES PATRICK
San Diego
JOE WIZ
Kansas CityTampa Bay Over
Florida
Insider Sports Report
Dodgers -130
GLEN McGREW
Oakland
Gamblers Data
Phillies -127
SOUTHSIDE SPORTS
LA ANGELS
FRANK PATRON
Brewers -130
Chad Jordan
Mariners +140
Jennifer Barry
Houston/Pittsburgh Under 9.5
DONALD TRAN
KC Royals +165
Todays Picks
ROYALS +154
ARMVIN SPORTS
DODGERS -129
RANGERS +129
HOT LOCK SPORTS
Brewers -138
CAPPERS ACCESS
Red Sox
Marlins
MIKE WYNN
Boston -170
PLATINUM PLAYS
PIRATES - 130
RAZOR SHARP
TAMPA BAY/KANSAS CITY UNDER 8
TOTALS4U
FLORIDA/SAN DIEGO UNDER 8
#1 SPORTS
L.A. ANGELS - 130
BIG TIME SPORTS
SEATTLE / OAKLAND UNDER 8
THE SCOUT
Seattle +145
HUDDLE UP
Colorado +115
VEGAS STEAMLINE
MINNESOTA/BOSTON OVER 9
BSI Sports
Kansas City/Tampa Bay Under 8
floridabookybusters
Kansas City
Paul Leiner
10* KC/TB Over 8
Prime Sports Picks
Oakland -155
Power Play Wins
Dodgers -130
Arthur Ralph
Dodgers
Ollie's Picks
Brewers - 143
Sharp Sports Advisors
Twins
Kingmaker
TB Rays
Bob Donahue
Astros
FRANK ROSENTHAL
904 PHILLY-125
OVER 10-115
906 BREWERS-135
907 FISH+105
OVER 7.5
912 RAYS-185
913 TWINS+165
UNDER 9
918 A'S UNDER 8
Vegas Experts
Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers face Ubaldo Jiminez, who has a horrible 0-8 team start record on the road, tonight. Overall, Colorado is just a lousy road team, checking in with a 11-30 mark outside of Coors Field. They are also 16-35 off a loss. They’ve lost five of six here at Miller Park and the Brew Crew comes in with spirits high riding a three-game win streak and after acquiring CC Sabathia.
Play on: Milwaukee
Tony Karpinski
Houston Astros vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Under
The Houston Astros enter Monday knowing their best pitcher is not all right. They just hope their top hitter is. While Roy Oswalt is unlikely to start in this series, the Astros hope Lance Berkman will as they meet the Pittsburgh Pirates in a three-game set matching the NL Central's worst teams. Berkman has been one of the few bright spots for the Astros (41-48), but was held out of the starting lineup Sunday due to an irritated left eye after feeling discomfort in Saturday's game at Atlanta. The Pirates dont have much of an offense either and I lean to the UNDER in this battle. Play the UNDER
Ben Burns
Game: New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
Both tonight's starting pitchers lasted just five innings last time out. However, while Pedro Martinez allowed five runs in his five innings, Adam Eaton allowed just two earned runs in his five innings of work. The Phillies would win Eaton's start by a score of 7-3 while the Mets would lose Martinez's start by a score of 8-7. The Mets are now 0-3 the last three times that Pedro took the mound and a dismal 5-11 the last 16. Over his last three starts, he has an awful 10.20 ERA and 1.933 WHIP. He's been brutal away from New York all season too, recording a 8.37 ERA and 1.817 WHIP in five road starts. The Mets are now 5-13 in Pedro's last 18 road starts, dating back to May of 2006. The Mets are also 0-4 the last four times that he started against the Phillies.
While Eaton is never going to win any Cy Young awards, the Phillies are a solid 5-2 in his seven home starts this season. Perhaps more importantly, Eaton has always enjoyed remarkable success against the Mets. In fact, he's a perfect 5-0 in nine starts against them and his teams won eight of those nine games. With the Phillies at 8-2 the last 10 times they were listed as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range, consider backing the home team.
LUCKY LEPRECHAUN SPORTS
TAMPA BAY -1.5 (+107) over Kansas City
The Mariners are 3-14 in Meches last 17 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game and 1-13 in his last 14 starts vs. American League East, while the Rays are 23-3 in their last 26 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200 and 22-4 in their last 26 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. I know this is a RL pick but those numbers are still important. Tampa Bay is 15-5 in their last 20 meetings, with KC and 14 of those 15 wins having come by 2 runs ore more and 13 of the 15 have been by 3 or more, while the Rays have outscored the Royals by 4.3 rpg in the 15 wins. Tampa has been a fav of -151 to -200 12 times this year and they are 12-0 in those games with all but 2 of them being won by 2 or more, while outscoring their opponents by 4.4 rpg in the process. The Royals are scuffling right now, winning just 2 of their last 9 games, with all 7 losses coming by 2 runs or more. KC has scored just 2.8 rpg in their last 18 road losses, with only 3 of those loses being by 1 run and they have been outscored by 4.5 rpg in the 18 losses. That Royals offense will not have an easy time today as they face Matt Garza, who is 5-1 with a 2.16 ERA at home. TB has won his home starts by 1.75 rpg. Gil Meche has been on a nice run for the M's, going 2-1 with a 2.89 ERA in his last 3 starts, but he is just 3-5 with a 4.13 ERA on the road this year and he is just 1-4 with a 5.65 ERA in his career vs the Rays. Matt Garza may be 0-3 in his career vs the M's, but he does have a nice 3.20 ERA vs them, as they Rays have scored just 4 total runs in those games, and also that was in a time when the Rays were not very good. This years edition is very good, they are on a roll and should have no problems winning this one by 2 runs ore more.
Players of America
Houston Astros vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
The Play: Pittsburgh Pirates -120.0
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
The Astros buckle up and take flight to Pittsburgh on Monday to start a new week of MLB action in the National League. It seems these two teams have a little something in common, and that is that they have experienced some of the biggest swings in the sport. Houston enters 41-47 overall and the Buccos a mere 40-46, 25-19 at home.
The righty Runelvys Hernandez toes the rubber for the Stros and is a measly 0-2 this year throwing just ten short innings. In those ten innings, the amateur has given up eleven hits and has an earned run average of 5.40. Houston as a team has bigger issues that heavers though. Lance Berkman is not expected to be in the starting line up for the Astros, as well as superstar shortstop Miguel Tejada. Both studs are scheduled for "rest" days and this is going to put a big dent in the line up for this squad. Things are looking cloudy down the road, and it seems there isn't much light at the end of the tunnel for these guys. Fold-time. With ace pitcher Roy Oswalt on the day-to-day DL, heads could be hanging a bit in Houston.
Switching dugouts, Pittsburgh hasn't been anything to write home about themselves this season. The lefty Phil Dumatrait is on the dirt and he's been mediocre at best. He's 1-1 his last three starts with a WHIP of 1.72 and an ERA of 4.66. The reason for this play isn't the pitching, it's the situation. Spotting value on a squad like this is an excellent opportunity to when one team is saying "Go ahead, beat us" and resting their players, and the other is not. As reported as of midnight, July 6, there are no significant injuries for the Pirates and the bullpen is rested and healthy.
PNC Park should have a nice Monday night crowd in downtown steel-city, and expect the Pirates to come out firing on all cylinders. Give us the Buccos for a nice little 10 unit wager on Monday.
TREND OF THE GAME: Houston is 4-12 in their last 16 road games.
Pittsburgh 6, Houston 3
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays
The Play: Kansas City Royals +180.0
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
This next selection might not be a popular one, but it is without a doubt a pure value bet on Monday. The two teams at bay are the Kansas City Royals of the AL Central and the sizzling hot Tampa Bay Devil Rays. These two teams square off at 3:40PM EST in Florida.
The visiting Royals elect to put the right-hander Gil Meche in the spotlight to start the game. Meche is 2-1 his last three starts throwing 18+ innings with a WHIP of 1.23 and an impressive 2.88 ERA.
On the other sideline, Matt Garza will be starting out for the Rays. Garza is also 2-1 his last three appearances giving up just 13 hits in 22 innings. Pretty impressive numbers, there is no denying that. However, the Royals are one of those teams that are capable of beating the world any given night and also capable of getting blown out by about 20 runs on any given day. With the way Tampa Bay has been setting the world on fire, we absolutely love the value on an opponent like the Royals tonight to put a halt to the madness.
The Devil Rays are 2-0 this year against KC, but neither of these pitchers has seen time. The first meeting was a 3-0 nod towards the Rays and the next an 11-2 blowout also favoring Tampa Bay. There might be a little chip-on-the-shoulder type deal for these Royals. I'll bet any amount of money that the staff of that ball club isn't ready to fold things up for the season. The inconstancy of the AL Central leaves every position wide open for post-season play, and KC is a prime candidate for a mid to late season run like that.
With that being said, let's grab all the underdog value here and place another nice little 10 unit wager on KC to pull the upset.
TREND OF THE GAME: The Royals are 18-6 in their last 24 Monday night games.
Kansas City 4, Tampa Bay 3
Florida Marlins vs. San Diego Padres
The Play: Under 8.5
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Next, we're going to travel to the opposite side of the country and set up shop on the west coast in San Diego. The Marlins are packing their bags and going with us, too. These two teams have some big time potential come post season time and both know how to play the game pretty darn well.
The Marlins were hot early in the year and were pretty much the talk of the town. As of late, they've lost stud Dan Uggla to an ankle injury and Brett Carrol to a separated shoulder. Likewise, the Pads have three players that typically get some playing time on the DL too.
We've got a pretty decent pitching dual Monday in San Diego as Ricky Nolasco faces Greg Maddux. These two set up perfectly for a total wager to be placed. In the last ten games, the Padres have stayed under the total seven times, and Florida five. Interestingly enough, SAN DIEGO HAS HAD A GAME STAY UNDER THE TOTAL AT LEAST ONCE IN EVERY HOME SERIES THIS SEASON. San Diego is a favorite for being an UNDER-sort of ball park, and that above trend stays in tact tonight. We're going to lay 10 units on this one, too, and watch for this one to be a defensive battle.back and forth.
TREND OF THE GAME: The UNDER is 8-2 in San Diego's last ten versus NL East.
San Diego 3, Florida 1
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Play: Under 8.0
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Rarely enough, here is another total play for the best. The quickly slumping Braves are heading across the country to Los Angeles for a late night showdown with the Dodgers. We've all seen the Atlanta woes, and they get even worse on the road.and maybe even worse 20 states away.
Well, let's start with this. Both of these teams tonight dug deep down to pull out a late win. By saying a late win, we mean a hard fought, LATE WIN. Atlanta went 17 long innings in their finale last night with Houston and the Dodgers strapped it on late to hold on to a 9th inning rally in San Francisco. The Braves are whooped, physically, mentally.everything. When odds makers released this line late last night, they had to be thinking twice about the total figure because of all the madness that took place with the Braves.
LA is a little beat up offensively which will help our case for an under. Juan Pierre is out indefinitely for at least 15 days with a knee sprain and shortstop Rafael Furcal is also on the 15 day DL as he'll undergo back surgery Thursday. Those are two key offensive losses for this team. There is a nice list of trends and system fits for this match up, and typically we don't base a selection solely on that, but let's review:
The UNDER is 37-15-1 for Atlanta in their last 53 road games.
The UNDER is 47-21-3 for Atlanta in their last 71 games on grass.
The UNDER is 49-22-3 for Atlanta in their last 74 overall games.
The UNDER is 11-2 for Los Angeles in their last 13 overall.
The UNDER is 11-2 for Los Angeles in their last 13 games on grass.
The UNDER is 16-5 in Los Angeles in their last 21 home games.
The above are some pretty impressive statistics. Campillo for the Braves has a solid 2.99 ERA and Kuroda is right around 3.50 for the Dodgers. Both are UNDER pitchers with Campillo keeping games under the total six of the last eight times out and Kuroda nine of the last 15 times out. With the way things shook out last night, let's lay down a 1* wager worth 10 units on this game staying well under the quoted total.
TREND OF THE GAME: The UNDER is 11-2 for Los Angeles in their last 13 games.
Los Angeles 4, Atlanta 1
PlayByPlayInc.
ATLANTA BRAVES +119
TAMPA BAY RAYS -191