Ben Burns
ATL/LAD UNDER
PITT
SD
Larry Ness
Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers
PICK: Los Angeles Dodgers
REASON FOR PICK: The Dodgers return home off winning two road series this week in Houston and San Francisco (5-2 in games), leaving them at 43-45 but just a half-game back of Arizona for first-place in the NL West. The Braves open this three-game road series as a very good home team in '08 (30-18) but as owners of a 12-29 mark on the road, where they've averaged a pathetic 3.83 RPG. Jorge Campillo (3-3 with a 2.99 ERA) gets the start for Atlanta and the former reliever has not matched his early successes as a starter. He made his first start on May 20 and went 2-0 (team was 3-0) in his first three outings, allowing just one ER over 15 innings (0.60 ERA), while striking out 16 and not walking a single batter. However, he's now 1-3 (team is 2-4) over his last six starts, with a 5.14 ERA. Hiroki Kuroda (4-6 with a 3.73 ERA) starts for LA and he's beginning to show the kind of form the Dodgers expected from him when they signed him to a three-year, $35.3 million contract in December (pitched 11 years in Japan). The Dodgers are just 3-6 in his road starts this year (4.21) but are now 4-2 in his six home starts, after two consecutive strong home performances by Kuroda. He's gone 17 innings in his last two starts at Dodger Stadium, allowing just nine hits and only two ERs (1.06 ERA), beating the Reds 5-2 and Cubs 3-0 (complete game with 11 Ks!). The Dodgers are the play here vs the poor-traveling Braves.
Stevie Y
Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play:Milwaukee Brewers
Loving the Brew Crew who banged out 9 doubles and 12 extra-base hits Sunday & now stand @ 49-38 a 11 games over .500 Hardy has been playing like he did last season in the 1/2 the last few weeks as he had another two home runs yesterday. The Brewers have won 15 of their last 18 at Miller Park, looking at Seth McClung he has tuned up oppenents to the low era of 3.18 ERA in his last 5 starts at home. The Brewers dropped two of three at Coors Field June 6-8, but have won 8 / 10 over the Rockies at Miller Park. Rockies are a major league-worst 12-31 on the road this season.Ubaldo Jimenez's nine road starts the Rockies have lost all nine contests and has gone 0-6 with a 6.96 ERA away from Coors. In his last three starts he's given up 15 runs in 13 IP on the road. play the run line with the Brewers
Oscarxena Sports
Boston -1 1/2 Runs +1.35 (3 Unit Play)
As many of you know I do not like to lay big favorites in baseball and I take my chances on run lines when I think the teams can cover and win by at least two runs. Boston returns home after a disappointing road trip where they saw their lead in the AL East evaporate to nothing and they now find themselves 5 games back to the Rays but on that trip they dropped six games by one run so they were in every game. Boston so far this year is 31-10 at Fenway Park while Minnesota is only 18-20 on the road so that certainly helps here tonight. Boston will have Daisuke Matsuzaka on the mound and so far this year Boston is 11-3 in his starts this year but he does have a 3.12 ERA on the year and has done very well against Minnesota as he has started two games and won them both while recording a 2.40 ERA and a 1.133 WHIP. He will be opposed by Scott Baker for the Twins who has not pitched particularly well on the road this year as he has a 4.58 ERA in 35 1/3 innings of work. The Twins rely on small ball a lot which sets up great on artificial turf but may hurt them here tonight with the grass of Fenway. I like Boston to win by at least two runs this evening.
LA Angels/Texas Over 10 1/2 -1.08 (3 Unit Play)
The fireworks ended on July 4th but I expect a lot of runs tonight as these two AL West teams take on each other in Texas. The Angels are counting on All Star pitcher Ervin Santana to get back into form this evening but I don't think that will happen against Texas. Texas is averaging .299 at home and has scored 6.0 runs per game in their home games so far this year and are off of a 11 run explosion against Baltimore yesterday. Santana has seemed to solve his road woes of last year but has not done particularly well when taking on the Rangers as he is 5-4 in his career starts but the total has went Over 8 out of 10 times in those outings and he has recorded a 6.44 ERA in those contests. The Rangers meanwhile will counter with Luis Mendoza who has been horrible lately and although he pitched a decent start in his only career start against the Angels I have absolutely no confidence in him this evening. The Angels battered around Blue Jay pitching this weekend and have seemed to turned the corner with their hitting and I look for a lots of runs this evening.
Seattle +1.39 (3 Unit Play)
The Mariners have been playing pretty good baseball lately and will have Jarrod Washburn on the mound tonight and he has actually been pitching very well recently. Washburn in his last five starts has went 2-0 with a 2.30 ERA and will be taking on an Oakland team that is decimated with injuries right now. Washburn in his career has a losing record at 8-13 against Oakland but has a decent 4.08 ERA and a 1.328 WHIP in those appearances. Oakland will counter with Dana Eveland who is also been on a roll lately but he has had only one career start against the Mariners and although he won that game he has a 5.07 ERA and a 1.313 WHIP. In kind of a weird stat the Mariners have beaten Oakland at McAfee Coliseum 10 out of the last 11 times and the Mariners bats have shown some signs of waking up recently although they didn't hit yesterday against Detroit. Baseball is about finding value and I think the Mariners are the right side tonight.
RON RAYMOND'S 5* O/U GAME OF THE MONTH!!!
Braves / Dodgers Under 7.5
Teddy Sevransky
GAME: Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Over
The Ballpark in Arlington has been a house of horrors for Erwin Santana throughout the course of his four year MLB career. The numbers don’t lie: eight starts in Arlington, lasting 43.1 innings. In those 43.1 innings, Santana has given up 58 hits and 41 runs, including a whopping 14 homers. The Rangers are the highest scoring team in baseball this year, averaging more than six runs per game at home; coming off an eleven run outburst in Baltimore yesterday. Four different Texas position players made the All Star team. Given their track record against Santana in this ballpark, there’s little reason to expect the Rangers offense to be shut down this evening.But there’s absolutely no reason to think that the Angels won’t be able to trade runs with Texas tonight. LA has finally broken out of a long term offensive slump, scoring at least five runs in five consecutive games for the first time all year while battering a rock solid Blue Jays pitching staff over the weekend. That offensive surge should continue tonight against spot starter Luis Mendoza. Mendoza’s last three starts have seen final scores of 11-3, 19-6 and 18-7, all Texas losses, with Mendoza himself lasting only 9.2 innings in those three appearances while allowing 18 runs in the process. Let’s not forget that Texas has used up their bullpen in a wild series at Baltimore, with top relievers Frank Francisco, Eddie Guardado and closer CJ Wilson combining for 7.2 innings of work over the last three days. Expect offensive fireworks from start to finish here! Take the Over.
Chris James Sports
Seattle/Oakland Under
Tonight is Game 1 of a 4 game set between the Mariners and A's. The Mariners return home tonight in hopes to avoid a 9th straight loss at home. They are fresh of a 7 game road trip where they went 3-4. After a night of traveling they will send Dana Eveland to the mound who is 6-5 with a 3.42 ERA on the year. Eveland is 1-0 so far this year against the Mariners although he had an ERA over 5.00 in that game. However, Eveland has come on really strong recently going 1-0 in his last three starts and posting an ERA of 2.79. Most of Eveland's starts have gone over the total so far this year, but I expect him to build of his last few starts and really put together a strong performance tonight. The Under is 21-9-2 in the A's last 32 games vs. a left handed starter. The Mariners counter with Jarrod Washburn, another starter who has really put together some nice games recently, posting a 2.33 ERA in his last 3 games while going 2-0. He is allowing 12.1 hits/walks per nine innings pitched compared to the 10.2 that Eveland is allowing. Washburn is a cash cow when it comes to the Under with his last 6 games coming in under the posted total. The Under is 5-0 in his last 5 starts as an underdog, 6-1 in his last 7 vs a team with a winning record, 4-1 in his last 5 Monday starts, 4-1 in his last 5 of Game 1 of a series, and 4-0 following a quality start. The Under is 7-3-2 in the last 12 meetings between these two teams played in Oakland. I think the 7.5 line is begging the public to take the over, after the initial look at their season ERA's, but a closer look will reveal that these are two pitchers at the top of their game this season and this one will come in Under the posted total!
KM Computer Plays
Top Play
Florida Marlins Over 7.5 5
Medium Plays
Laa Angels Under 10.5 3
Atlanta Braves Under 7.5 3
Florida Marlins Over 7.5 3
Oakland Athletics (M: -142.0) 3
Regular Plays
Oakland Athletics (-1.5: 158.0)
Los Angeles Dodgers (M: -133.0)
New York Mets Under 10.5
Seattle Mariners Over 7.5
SAPKOWSKI
Premium
PIT Pirates
LA Angels
Free picks
TEX Rangers U10.5
MIN Twins
Jeff Scott
3 Units Dodgers
1 Unit Phillies
1 Unit Marlins
Matty O'Shea Double Dime NL Total Play O' the Week
PIT / HOU Over 9.5
What's the cure for a struggling Houston offense? How about facing a struggling Pittsburgh pitcher who will be making his first start off the DL after suffering from a shoulder injury? That's the situation we have working in our favor on Monday, and it definitely helps that the Astros are pounding lefties this season at a .287 clip. Southpaw Phil Dumatrait went 1-1 in his previous three starts for Pittsburgh with a massive 9.19 ERA before going on the DL, with all three going OVER the total. Meanwhile, the Pirates will get to face Runelvys Hernandez after seeing the total go OVER in four of their last five games overall. Hernandez is 0-2 filling in for the departed Shawn Chacon with a 5.40 ERA and should struggle in his first road start. Look for a high-scoring series opener between these teams and bet the OVER as my Double Dime NL Total Play O' the Week
Players Advantage
PITTSBURGH PIRATES (Dumatrait) -vs- Houston Astros (Hernandez) OVER 9.5
This is Scott’s Over Easy selection for Monday: 1* (regular play)
Phil Dumatrait makes his first start since coming off of the disabled list. The Pirates left-hander is trying to come back from bursitis in the shoulder of his throwing arm and we don’t expect him to be 100% after the layoff. Keep in mind that in his most recent two starts Dumatrait allowed 14 runs on 16 hits in ten innings of work. Note that the Astros are one of the top hitting teams in the league against southpaws. While Houston is hitting only .250 against right-handers they are hitting a stellar .288 against left-handed pitching. They also have scored six runs in each of their last two games. The Pirates pitching staff allowed 22 runs in their three game set with Milwaukee and, after Zach Duke lasted just 2.1 innings for the Pirates yesterday, their bullpen is not in a good position here to provide a lot of relief to Dumatrait and yet, that is precisely what they may be asked to do! The Astros pitching situation is really no better than Pittsburgh’s heading into Monday’s game. Houston played a 17 inning affair at Atlanta yesterday. Wandy Rodriguez only lasted 5.1 innings for the Astros yesterday so the bullpen went the rest of the way until Houston lost it in the bottom of the 17th. The Astros relievers worked nearly 11 innings yesterday and now they’ll have to support Runlevys Hernandez. The Astros right-hander has lasted just five innings in each of his first two starts and, keep in mind, this is first major league action since 2006. Hernandez has allowed 11 hits (including two homers) and 5 walks in his ten innings of work so far. Hernandez has recorded more outs through the air than on the ground in each of his first two starts. The Pirates offense scored six runs yesterday and that was the third time in their last five games that they’ve scored at least six runs. In fact 14 of Pittsburgh’s last 21 games have ended with at least ten runs scored and that is part of the reason there is so much value with today’s total. The Pirates bullpen ERA ranks them as the worst pen in the National League while the Astros bullpen will be “running on fumes” tonight as noted above. Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh as a regular selection.
Anaheim Angels (Santana)-135 over TEXAS RANGERS (Mendoza)
1* (regular play)
This is a classic case of getting line value because of some historical facts that many look at as outweighing the current data. This is simply a mistake and it’s something we can take advantage of. As long-time clients know, big favorites are not a part of our structure. However, long-time clients also know that we will step into what we term a “moderate” price range, like 135 to 150, when we see exceptional value and that is precisely what we see with the Angels on Monday. Los Angeles is the best road team in the league with a fantastic 27-15 record away from home. Overall, they are playing fantastic ball as they have won four of their last five and they’ve scored 32 runs in the process. The Angels already swept a two game series in Texas earlier this season. Now, this series is a four game set and the Angeles will prove to be too much for Texas once again and this is especially true with Monday’s pitching match-up. Ervin Santana is having a fantastic season. He is 9-3 with a 3.28 ERA and he’s only been hit at a .224 clip this season while also registering 106 strikeouts in his 115 innings of work. What many bettors will get “hung up” on here is that the Angels right-hander is just 2-4 with an 8.10 ERA in his career at Rangers Ballpark. However, this truly is “historical bias” because Santana was indeed well known for his road struggles prior to this season. However, this season the 25 year old is showing his growth in maturity as he’s pitching better than he ever has before. On the road this season Santana is a fantastic 6-1 with a 3.36 ERA and a .232 BAA. Note that this includes a very solid start at Texas where Santana got the victory in a 7-4 win back in mid-April. Also note that his past struggles against Rangers include the following hitters: Hank Blalock, Milton Bradley, Gerald Laird, and Michael Young. This is extremely significant because Blalock and Laird are on the disabled list, Bradley left yesterday’s game early with knee tendonitis, and Young did not start yesterday’s game due to injury. As you can see, Santana is likely to miss many of the Rangers that have given him trouble in the past and also note that even if he does face them, he’s throwing the best he’s thrown in his entire career! The Angels pitching situation is certainly better than that of the Rangers as they start Luis Mendoza tonight. He has not pitched as well as his 4.64 ERA might indicate. In fact, he is 0-2 with a 6.91 in his four starts this season. Also, in his most recent start, Mendoza allowed six runs in less than five innings against the Yankees but his numbers don’t look worse because of the fact that five of the runs were unearned. This is good news for us because it keeps his numbers from being “out of whack” and so we get line value going against him knowing that the guy is struggling to get outs with men on base. Mendoza also has not been able to pitch past the fifth inning in any of his four starts and this will put further pressure on a Rangers bullpen that has already been severely taxed in recent games. The Rangers have allowed 41 runs in their last four games. Looks like another very rough night for the Rangers as the Angels should pile it on in this one. Play the Los Angeles Angels on the money line as a regular selection.
BALFE
Major League Baseball
Brewers -130 over Rockies
VEGAS RUNNER
SDP (-108) vs FLA 3* MLB BEST BET of the DAY
ATL (+127) vs LOS 3* ML WAGER (UPGRADED WAGER)
TEX / ANA Over 10.5 1* TOTAL WAGER
BOS -1.5 (+125) vs MIN 1* RL WAGER
MIL (-129) vs COL 1* ML WAGER
Jeff Benton
15 Dime: MARLINS (over Padres)
5 Dime: RANGERS (over Angels)