SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Milwaukee (55-43) at St. Louis (57-43)
Two teams that have been red-hot since the All-Star break square off at Busch Stadium in St. Louis when the Brewers come calling with Seth McClung (5-5, 4.16 ERA) on the hill against the Cardinals’ Joel Pineiro (3-4, 4.52).
Milwaukee went out to San Francisco after the break and took three straight against the Giants, including Sunday’s 7-4 victory. The Brewers have won four straight overall and have taken four of five from the Cardinals and lead the season series 5-4. However, in St. Louis the Brewers are just 1-6 in their last six visits.
St. Louis swept a four-game set from the Padres to open the second half, including Sunday’s dramatic 9-5 win thanks to a walk-off grand slam off the bat of Aaron Miles. The Cardinals have won five in a row and six of their last seven overall, and they are 15-7 at home against teams with a winning record.
McClung is 0-2 in his last three outings with a 3.86 ERA and he’s lost his last two even though he didn’t allow more than three earned runs in either start. In his last road outing, he held the D-Backs to two runs in 5 1/3 innings of a 4-3 Milwaukee victory.
The Cardinals are 3-0 in Pineiro’s last three starts even though he got drilled back on July 13, giving up six runs on 10 hits in 5 2/3 innings but his offense bailed him out with an 11-6 win. He faced these Brewers back on May 10 and gave up two runs on four hits in 6 1/3 innings of a 5-3 St. Louis win. The Cardinals have won seven of his last nine outings against teams with a winning record.
The under is 4-0 in Pineiro’s last four starts against teams with a winning record and 8-2 in McClung’s last 10 overall. Meanwhile the over is on runs of 8-1 for the Brewers overall and 8-3 when they are a road ‘dog. The over is also 7-1 when the Cardinals are a home favorite and 8-2-1 when they face a right-handed starter.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Minnesota (55-43) at N.Y. Yankees (53-45)
The Yankees try to stay perfect since the All-Star break when they send Sidney Ponson (5-1, 3.96) to the hill at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx against the Twins’ Nick Blackburn (7-5, 3.65).
New York completed a three-game sweep of the A’s on Sunday with a 2-1 victory behind the pitching of Andy Pettitte. The Yankees have won eight of their last 11 overall and seven straight at home.
The Twins opened the second half by taking two of three from the Rangers, but dropped Sunday’s series finale, 1-0. Minnesota is on runs of 21-7 overall, 16-6 against right-handed starters and 8-2 in series openers.
The Yankees have dominated this rivalry, going 37-15 in the last 52 meetings and 22-8 when the two meet in the Bronx.
Ponson is 2-0 in New York since joining the Yankees and allowed just one run on five hits in six innings of a 2-1 win over the Rays on July 9. The Yankees have won all three of his outings and have scored 29 runs in the three games. Ponson’s teams are 7-3 in his last 10 starts against Minnesota and he has held the Twins to two earned runs or less in seven of his last eight starts against them.
Blackburn has pitched well in his last three road outings but has nothing to show for it, giving up exactly two earned runs in all three but the Twins are just 1-2 in those three and 3-7 in his last 10 highway starts. Minnesota has won six of his last nine starts and that includes a short 4 1/3 innings of work against the Yankees on June 1 when he held them to one run on five hits in a 5-1 Twins’ win.
The over is 11-5 for Minnesota on the road against teams with a winning home record and 6-2 when the Twins play on Monday. Meanwhile the under is on runs of 20-7-1 overall for the Yankees, 14-3-1 as a home favorite and 6-0 in series openers.
In this rivalry, the under is 24-9-2 in New York, but the over is 4-1 in the last five overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES
Oakland (51-47) at Tampa Bay (57-40)
It’s a battle of southpaws today when the A’s send Dana Eveland (7-6, 3.49) to the mound at Tropicana Field in Tampa to battle the Rays’ Scott Kazmir (7-5, 3.04).
Oakland has dropped five straight, including a 2-1 loss Sunday that completed a three-game sweep at the hands of the Yankees over the weekend. The A’s managed just five runs in the three games in the Bronx and have not scored more than three runs in a game since July 11. They have won nine of their last 10 series openers and six of their last seven on Monday but they are just 2-9 in their last 11 against southpaws.
Tampa took two of three at home against the Blue Jays over the weekend, but dropped Sunday’s contest 9-4. The Rays had lost seven straight before the All-Star break but still hold one of the best home marks in baseball at 38-15. They are on further streaks of 22-5 at home against teams with a winning record and 16-5 in series openers.
Tampa has won five of the last six meetings with the A’s but Oakland holds the long-term advantage, going 57-26 in the last 83 series clashes.
Eveland has held the opposition to three runs or less in eight straight outings and the A’s have alternated wins in his last 10. In his lone start against Tampa on May 21 he held the Rays to one run on three hits and got a complete-game 9-1 victory. On the downside, the A’s are just 1-4 in Eveland’s last five on the road and 0-4 when he faces a team with a winning record.
Kazmir hasn’t been his usual dominant self lately, going 0-2 in his last three outings with a 6.19 ERA and the Rays are just 3-4 in his last seven. At home he is 4-1 with a 1.96 ERA and he has dominated Oakland, not allowing more than three runs in any of his last eight starts dating back to 2005. He beat the A’s back on May 20, allowing one run on four hits over seven innings of a 3-2 victory. Tampa is 6-1 in Kazmir’s last seven at home but 0-4 when he gets seven or more days of rest.
The under is 12-5-2 in Eveland’s last 19 starts and 6-0 when he starts a series opener. Meanwhile the under is 21-8-2 in Kazmir’s last 31 against teams with a winning record and 11-5-2 when he faces the A.L. West.
Overall for the Rays, the under is on runs of 20-7 against lefties and 12-1 at home against southpaws. For Oakland, the under is 20-8 in series openers and 8-2 against left-handed starters.
In this rivalry, the over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings and 4-0 in Tampa, but the under is 5-1-1 when Kazmir is on the hill.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY
Locksmith Sports
1 Unit on Brewers +106
The Brewers have won 4 straight and they are a dominant 13-4 in their last 17 vs. the National League Central. The Brewers are also 11-3 in their last 14 vs. a team with a winning record. Milwaukee has won 4 of the last 5 meetings and it has the edge again here. The Cardinals are just 1-5 in Pineiro's last 6 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Bet the Brew Crew at a great price.
Bobby Maxwel
Chicago Cubs at ARIZONA +125
We are going to grab the plus-money in this one and play the D’Backs at home. Remember the Cubs are having a great season but they haven’t been much on the road, going 21-28 away from Wrigley.
Chicago is 5-11 in its last 16 on the road and a horrendous 7-25 in their last 32 trips to Arizona.
Plus Arizona has Randy Johnson (6-7, 5.23 ERA) on the mound today and this guy has owned the Cubs in his career. The D’Backs are 10-0 in his last 10 starts against Chicago and 7-0 at Chase Field when he takes the mound against them.
The D’Backs are 55-27 when Johnson starts in a series opener and they are 14-6 in their last 20 Monday games.
Meanwhile the Cubs have newly acquired Rich Harden on the mound and they are just 3-9 when facing a team with a winning home record and 2-5 on the road against southpaws.
Let’s get the plus-money and play the D’Backs tonight.
2♦ ARIZONA
James Patrick Sports
Indians vs. Angels
The Angels are lethal on Monday as they have won 13 and lost just 6. Tonight’s starter Santana has won 35 of 51 home starts, while his opponent Paul Byrd is a hopeless 1-10 in his road starts. Our Monday selection in Major League Baseball is Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Seattle vs Lester
When the Mariners host Jon Lester and the Red Sox in Seattle this evening they'll do so knowing they've beat Boston in 11 of the last 14 games on this field. In addition, Jon Lester's road ERA is a full run worse than his home ERA this season. Swith that, we'll look for the BoSox to dip to 5-15 away on Mondays here tonight.
Jimmy The Moose
Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals
Prediction: Detroit Tigers
The Tigers are 12-4 in their last 16 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Tigers are 5-1 in their last 6 games to open up a series. Detroit is 16-7 in their last 23 games following a win. Miner makes his first start of the season tonight. The Tigers are 4-0 in his last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. Detroit has also won 6 of his last 8 road starts. The Royals are 3-10 in theor last 13 games vs. a right-handed starter. KC is 1-5 in their last 6 home games vs. a righty. The Royals beat up on the Tigers early in the season but tonight Detroit wins. Play on the Detroit Tigers +.
Terron Chapman
Atlanta Braves vs. Florida Marlins
Play: Florida Marlins
The Florida Marlins will look to carry the momentum they gained from Sunday's walk off win against the Phillies into game 1 of their series tonight with the Atlanta Braves. They will send a young right hander to the mound in Christopher Volstad who was electric in his first big league start.
I'm a little apprehensive in recommending a play on a rookie pitcher in his first home start but I was impressed by what I saw from Volstad in his first outing against the Dodgers. He has an electric fastball with good command of his changeup. He struck out six while going 8 2/3 innings allowing just 5 hits and 1 earned run in the Marlins 3-1 win nine days ago. He should be tough against a Braves team who is coming off a rough weekend, dropping two of three to the lowly Washington Nationals including a 15-6 drubbing yesterday.
The Braves are one of the major's worst road teams with a record of 15-32. Jorge Campillo will get the start for the Braves. After a strong start the right hander has cooled off some and comes into the game just 1-2 in his last three with an ERA of 5.00. The Braves are just 2-5 in his last 7 starts overall. He lasted only four innings in his only appearance against the Marlins giving up 6 hits and 4 earned runs in only 4 innings pitched inlcluding two homer's. The Braves are hitting just .202 against right handers the last 10 games.Play on the Florida Marlins for 1 unit.
Scott Ferrall
Boston and Lester over Seattle at -130--in the Emerald City
Detroit (even odds) over Kansas City and Hochevar
Chicago -165 behind Vazquez over Texas--The White Sox just don' lose regularly
Toronto's Litsch over Liz in Baltimore--The Jays aren't dead yet and the Orioles have been playing like shit
MILWAUKEE +105 over St.Louis--Brewers take the opener of an important series at Busch
Cincy -135 over San Diego--The Reds split with the Mets at home and now they have the lowly padres in town. SD doesn't win games
STU FINER
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles
We like the Orioles to get the job done here tonight. Don’t let a few tough days against the Tigers get you down on the Orioles pitching staff. Their bullpen has been great all season. Their bullpen has posted an ERA of just 3.49 this season.
The Orioles faced an ace yesterday in Justin Verlander. It won’t be that same type of pitcher on the mound for the Jays tonight. The Jays send their number five to the hill tonight. Their number five is a 23 year old Florida native named Jesse Litsch.
If you would like at Jesse’s numbers you would think he has pitched very well. He did come out of the gate hot but he has been getting in lots of trouble recently. Jesse went just 2.2 innings in his last start allowing seven hits and earned runs. He hasn’t won in his last three starts and doesn’t pitch well on the road. The Orioles are the play here tonight.
Baltimore Orioles (-)
Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees
Two very hot teams collide in the Bronx tonight. The Twins and Yankees are moving down that same road. These two teams both started out the season slow but have turned it on as of late. The Twins have actually played great ball for a month. The Yankees are fresh off their home sweep of the Athletics.
When the Yankees are going well it doesn’t matter who they are facing. This is a team that still has a big time line-up. The Twins have to fly all the way to New York tonight with no off day that is not an easy thing to do.
While the Twins have played great ball as of late, most of that has been in their own ball-park. The Yankees are home and are eight games over .500 in their building, look for them to continue their modest winning streak.
New York Yankees (-)
Oakland Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays
The Athletics are a team that is fading fast folks. There are good reasons for that as well. This is a team that has been in the race all season. The problem now is the fact they just traded two of their three best pitchers. Rich Harden and Joe Blanton are now in the National League.
Oakland already has a problem scoring runs. This is a team that is ranked 23 in total runs scored. They rank 27th in batting average hitting under .250 and all season they have hit just seventy home-runs. Now you want them to go on the road and beat one of baseball’s best young pitchers? That just isn’t going to happen folks.
Scott Kazmir will pitch a big time game. We know the line is high but it should be, take the Rays they will continue their winning ways at home.
Tampa Bay Rays (-)
Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox
We look for the Sox to bounce back here at home. We have told you time and time again that the White Sox are one of the best teams in all of baseball. We know that everyone talks about the Boston Red Sox and the Chicago Cubs. We know people are behind the Minnesota Twins and the Milwaukee Brewers but the White Sox are just as good.
The Sox are the only team to rank in the top five in both total offense and total defense (pitching). This is a team that scores almost five runs per game. They can out-slug almost any team in all of baseball. They have hit over a 132 home runs this season already (which ranks third in baseball).
The Rangers have a great offense, we aren’t going to knock it but remember that hitting gets in streaks. Good pitching always shuts down good hitting. Take the home team and lay the wood.
Chicago White Sox (-)
Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals
We like the Royals and their youth folks. We like their core players a lot. You better get used to some of the names we are going to mention.
Jose Guillen, David DeJesus, Mike Aviles and Alex Gordon have led a young dynamic team to respectability. The Royals are 5-2 in their last seven contests, and that actually includes a 3-1 mark against the White Sox (they played a series before the all-star break at home against them).
Zach Miner is no one special. He is just 3-3 this season with an ERA of 4.23. In fact the Tigers are only starting him this game because they are desperate. Their pitching is in shambles. Miner has tried his hand at starting over his last few seasons. He is a .500 pitcher and he is lucky to be that. An ERA over 5.00 shows us exactly that.
Luke Hochevar was on top of his game in his last start. He won’t have to be perfect to pick up a win tonight against the Tigers. The Royals have dominated the Tigers all season and we expect the same thing to occur tonight. Take the Royals and be confident.
Kansas City Royals (-)
Cleveland Indians at LA Angels
We like the Angels to continue playing good baseball on their current home stand. Tonight the Angels send one of their best pitchers to the mound. Ervin Santana has finally put it together this season. Ervin is 11-3 on the season and has an ERA of just 3.34.
Ervin finished up the first half on a high note. On the road he went to Oakland and threw seven innings of shutout ball. Not only did he put up zeros he also struck out ten batters.
How about his last home start, you ask? He went seven innings, allowed just two runs and struck out seven guys.
Santana has always been a better pitcher at home. This 25 year old can shut down any lineup, especially a weak Cleveland line-up that is without their two top offensive threats.
LA Angels (-)
Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners
We know the Red Sox have struggled on the road but we feel they will get the job done tonight against a weak Seattle Mariners baseball team. Jon Lester has really been the unsung hero for the Red Sox this season. He is 7-3 on the season with an ERA of just 3.38. How many people out there would realize he has better numbers than Josh Beckett this season? That is a fact though.
Jon hasn’t had a problem pitching on the road this season. Lester has a winning mark on the road. He has allowed just four home runs all season away from Fenway park. This is a left handed pitcher in the mold of an Andy Pettitte. He features a plus fastball and a devastating curve ball.
Just two starts ago we saw him pitch a big time game at Yankee Stadium. A complete game five hit shutout against the Yankees that included eight strikeouts. The Sox will get back on track tonight and win a road game.
Boston Red Sox (-)
National League
Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee has been rolling since their blockbuster trade of C.C. Sabathia. They are 5-2 in their last seven games. That also includes a winning streak of four. They have won every single game since the all-star break. That includes three wins in a row on the road.
Seth McClung goes for the Brewers tonight. He has been pitching very well this season even though you may not hear his name brought up often. Seth has lost just one game on the road all-season. He has pitched 35 innings and has an ERA of just 3.28.
The St. Louis Cardinals had to work very hard to take care of the lowly Padres. Tonight they won’t be able to beat a good team.
Milwaukee Brewers (+)
Atlanta Braves at Florida Marlins
We know the Braves have struggled on the road this season. Let’s be honest though, what team hasn’t struggled on the road this season? Christopher Volstad pitches for the Florida Marlins. Volstad is a talented pitcher but he isn’t quite ready. If the Marlins had any veteran presence Volstad would still be in the minors.
The Braves will bounce back after their tough series against the Nationals. No doubt that was a disappointing series, but the Braves still have a ton of talent. The Braves also send one of their best pitchers to the mound tonight. Jorge is just 4-4 but he has an earned run average of just 3.06.
Jorge has been lights out on the road. He has made six starts and has lost just two ball games while posting an ERA of 1.80. If there is a pitcher to trust on the road Jorge is that guy. Look for him to take care of the over-aggressive Florida Marlins team.
Atlanta Braves (+)
San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds
The Reds had a very tough game yesterday against the Mets. It wasn’t only the fact they lost but it was how they lost and why they lost. First of all the Reds weren’t able to win the game behind their ace. It is always tough for a team to lose a game when their ace hits the bump.
The Reds also were let down by their sloppy defense and bad bull-pen pitching. They had to use a ton of pitchers yesterday and for an extended period of time as the game went in to extras.
Homer Bailey goes for the Reds tonight. He will be replacing the injured Aaron Harang in Cincinnati. Bailey is yet to win a game and has struggled this season. Bailey is 0-3 with an ERA of 7.00. Look for the Padres behind Banks to get the job done.
San Diego Padres (+)
LA Dodgers at Colorado Rockies
The Dodgers have battled so well in their last series. They were able to steal one against the Diamondbacks yesterday in Arizona. The Dodgers have started to finally hit more. They are actually a top the division in the very weak NL West. Last night the Dodgers scored a total of six runs on twelve hits. The most impressive part was the fact they scored five runs in just the ninth inning. Not too shabby for a team that had struggled to score runs all season.
Eric Stults has been a welcome edition to the pitching staff for the Dodgers. He has now made six starts and been excellent in most of them. Eric had to make the transition to the rotation and build arm strength and he has done that. Eric has thrown 30 innings this season and allowed just 28 hits while striking out 21. Coors field isn’t exactly what it use to be. Look for the Dodgers to win this game against another NL West foe.
LA Dodgers (+)
Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks
This line is just too good to pass up. You can’t ignore the splits on these two teams. The Cubs were able to win the game yesterday against the Astros but they lost another road series. For the season they are just 21-28 on the road. We all know how great their record is at Wrigley, but that doesn’t help them tonight out in the dessert.
The Diamondbacks on the other hand have struggled this season. They came out red hot and since then they just haven’t been able to get any steam together. Most of their troubles though have com eon the road. They are playing nine games under .500 on the road.
Randy can still shut down line-ups. His last home start was fantastic. Six innings plus pitched and he allowed just three hits and struck out ten batters. Randy has a winning record at home and will be able to get one tonight. The trip will be too tough for the Cubs tonight.
Arizona Diamondbacks (+)
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Detroit Tigers +100
The Tigers have been starting out series' in the win column with regularity and that has been a key part of the turnaround they have made. I like them to start out this series with a big "W" also against the up and down Royals. It will be the down Royals here as we'll catch them in a letdown spot after taking two in a row from the White Sox on the road. The Tigers are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series, 11-4 in their last 15 vs. a team with a losing record, and 4-0 in Miner's last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Royals are on1y 19-49 in their last 68 Monday games. Bet the Tigers.
Vic Monte
100*Detroit Tigers
Scott Spreitzer
MLB LINE ERROR GAME OF THE WEEK! *26-9, 74% Run!
I'm laying the price with the Marlins on Monday. Atlanta continues to be consistently overpriced by the oddsmakers due to faulty public perception. The Braves were huge favorites over Washington Saturday and Sunday and got drubbed. The books opened Atlanta as a small dog, practically a virtual "pick-em" with the superior Florida Marlins. Atlanta is a stunningly bad 6-18 in its last 24 games against teams with a winning record. Underrated Florida is in the heart of the NL East race right now with the Mets and Phillies. That's enough by itself to like Florida at this price. I also like the chances of young Chris Volstad (who had a great debut in Los Angeles last week) to outpitch Jorge Campillo. In his last eight starts, Campillo has an ERA of 4.62. He's also had trouble pitching in hot weather. If he can't go deep, the struggling Braves bullpen will pour kerosene on the fire. Atlanta just allowed 29 runs in three games to Washington. The betting markets have been out of synch with both of these teams all season. Tonight's moneyline is ridiculous, as far as I'm concerned. The Marlins minus the price is the play
MLB Monday Night MISMATCH! *13-2, 87% Run!
I'm laying the price with the Cardinals on Monday. It's a big series in the NL Central, but St. Louis is in much better position to capture the opening contest. Seth McClung takes to the bump for the visitor. He's struggled as of late, forcing the Milwaukee pen to get busy early and often. McClung has lasted just 21 innings in his last four starts, combined. The one-time reliever has allowed 12 earned runs in those outings along with 34 base runners. That adds up to a four game 5.14 ERA & 1.62 WHIP. He's running into the wrong lineup today. The Redbirds have really found their bats, scoring 41 runs during their current five game winning streak, and 52 runs in their last six, overall! In fact, St. Louis slammed the Pads for nine runs on Sunday WITHOUT Albert Pujols, who had the day off. Lucky for Seth McClung. He gets to face a rested Pujols on Monday. Meanwhile, I look for Joel Pineiro to cool off the Brewer bats. He's had no trouble in his pair of starts against the Brewers, sporting a 2.70 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. And, the Redbird righty is at his best when the sun goes down. Pineiro has struggled in afternoon outings, but he owns the night with a 3.52 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in nine evening starts this season. Toss in his 3.47 ERA in 10 career starts at this venue and we have the making of a Monday night Mismatch. I'm laying the price with the Cardinals.
Jim Feist
SD Padres and CIN Reds
Take SD Padres
Josh Banks has been a very consistent pitcher this season for the Padres. Though he is only 2-4 on the year, he still has a very respectable 3.20 era. In fact, despite having started four of his last six games on the road, the 6-foot-3 righthander has allowed just 12 earned runs in those four away starts for an era well under three. Homer Bailey starts for the Reds and he's still looking for hist first win this season in four starts (0-3). Baily has given up 14 earned runs in 18 innings and walked more than he's struck out (10 to 7). The Padres don't hit well, but Baily might just be the medicine that helps get the bats going here on Monday.
Dave Cokin
Braves @ Marlins
Play: Marlins
I'm doing really well with most of my pre-season predictions, but I'm going to miss the mark on my Braves call, as I projected them as an Over play on their Wins Prop. Certainly the injuries haven't helped, but the bottom line is Atlanta just isn't very good, and they're awful on the road. Meanwhile, the surprising Marlins just won't go away and I think they have to be looked at as legit NL East contenders at this point. But they sure aren't being priced that way, as you can see by the short price on this evening's game. I'll go for value with the Marlins to beat the Braves.
Robert Ross
Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees
Prediction: New York Yankees
Yanks have taken five of last seven at home from the Twins. MINNESOTA is 20-48 against the money line in road games vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons and 13-24 against the money line vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 7 or more hits/start over the last 2 seasons. Take New York.