BEN BURNS
Boston @ Mariners
PICK:Mariners (RL)
Due to public perception, I believe that the Mariners offer us solid value here, particularly when we can get an extra 1.5 runs for a very reasonable price. Yes, the Red Sox are the defending champs and yes, they've been extremely tough (36-11!) to beat at Fenway. However, they just got swept by the Angels and are now a money-burning 20-31 on the road, costing their backers 13.8 net games vs. the moneyline in those games. They've also really struggled here at Seattle in recent seasons. In fact, the Red Sox have won just three of their last 14 visits here. Note that the last two games played here in this series (and four of the last seven) were both decided by a single run.
Despite their struggles this season, the Mariners have managed to fare well against southpaw starters recently. They lost vs. Cliff Lee yesterday. He's 13-2 on the season though, so there's no real shame in that. Even with that setback, the M's are still a respectable 6-4 their last 10 games against left-handed starters. Washburn gets the call and he's been solid of late, recording a 3.15 ERA and 1.20 WHIP his last three starts. That compares favorably to Lester, who has a very poor 4.64 ERA his last three starts. Lester will be supported by a Boston bullpen which has a 4.75 ERA on the road with a 1.409 WHIP. The Mariners bullpen has been much better, recording a stellar 2.86 ERA and 1.213 WHIP in games here at Safeco. Consider playing SEATTLE on the run-line.
SCOTT RICHENBACH
1* (regular play) OVER the total in NY Yankees vs Minnesota
No one will want the Over here and that's why the total on this game has even dropped to a 9 in some books as of late morning Monday. We love finding value with games like this as we not only understand the line drop, we also understand the reason it needs to be faded! We go against the grain here because of the way these pitchers match up with these clubs. Yes, the Yankees are coming off of a three game set with Oakland where every game stayed under the total. Yes, the Twins are coming off of a three game set where two of the three games stayed under the total. However, before yesterday's games, the Yankees averaged 5.5 runs per game in their first two games of their three game set while the Twins averaged 10 runs per game in the first two games of their three game set! The point is that both of these teams are hot and both of these teams had been hitting the ball quite well. We also saw Saturday's Yankees game filled with a ridiculous amount of wasted opportunities as the Yanks left 21 men on base! Hence, we are given value today with these two pitchers on the mound.
Yes, Sidney Ponson has put together some surprisingly effective outings this season but we just don't see it with him. He has really not looked as good on the mound as you would expect based on his solid record and low ERA. Note that he has been hit at a .306 clip this season. This should really come as no surprise because the last season where the hurler allowed a BAA of less than .300 was way back in 2003. This guys just doesn?t have it anymore and he's truly been getting by on smoke and mirrors. Simply put, the hottest team in the league over the last month, the Twins, will not fall prey to the ?smoke and mirrors? attack of Ponson. The Twins score plenty here. The key to this over of course is that the Yankees will match the Twins run for run. Nick Blackburn took a line drive off the nose the last time he faced the Yanks and that bad memory certainly won't help the young hurler at Yankee Stadium tonight! Just like Ponson, some of Blackburn's numbers make him look better than he really is. Don't be fooled! Note that Blackburn is just 2-3 on the road with a 4.52 ERA this season. He's also been hit at a .294 clip away from home this season and note that, in his career, he has a .292 BAA. Blackburn gets crushed in the Bronx and this one sails over. Play OVER the total in the Yankees game as a regular selection.
Players of America
Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
The Play: Arizona Diamondbacks +130
Star Value: 3* (30 Units)
A 3-2 day yesterday with some nice profits that easily could have been a 4-1 day if the BoSox hang on late in Anaheim. Despite it all, another winning day, and time to move on to Monday's card--which happens to shape up and be a pretty big one.
Here's a nice looking match up Monday night. Things line up perfectly in Arizona as the Cubs open up a little series with the Diamondbacks at 9:40PM EST. Chicago is coming off a massacre as they really laid it to Houston on Sunday 9-0. Arizona got handed a loss at home to the Dodgers in a close one and is looking to rebound with the Big Unit.
The Big Unit, AKA Randy Johnson, is set to pitch for the Diamondbacks Monday night. Randy has dealt with a fair share of criticism this season with his up and down performances. Randy comes in Monday winning two of his last three starts. The Cubs have owned the Diamondbacks this season, 3-0 overall. That little trend comes to a crashing halt on Monday. Randy might be up and down this season, but he FLAT OUT pitches well against this team as the trends below show.
Right hander Rich Harden takes the mound for the Cubbies and has thrown just five innings for them after his acquisition. The Cubs bullpen has an ERA just shy of 5.00 in their last three games. As we've noted in the past, the Cubs are without superstar Alfonso Soriano due to a broken left hand. Again, as we've stated, the Cubs have adapted well to his loss, but since the All-Star break have not been the team they were before. They are 1-2 since the break and we cashed on them that single game (yesterday).
Simply put, the price is too good to pass up on the Backs at home Monday. Odds makers know their stuff, but to give such value on this explosive squad is asking for smart bettors to capitalize. We're going to do that. Snatch up the underdog status here and watch the Diamondbacks get a win at home and look for the Big Unit to be more than impressive. 30 units on Arizona please.
TRENDS OF THE GAME:
-The Cubs are 3-8 in their last 11 games following a win.
-The Cubs are 5-11 in their last 16 road games.
-The Diamondbacks are 14-6 in Johnson's last 20 Monday starts.
-The Diamondbacks are 10-0 in Johnson's last 10 starts versus the Cubs.
Arizona 4, Chicago 2
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
The Play: Boston Red Sox -125
Star Value: 3* (30 Units)
Yep, we're riding this train again.the struggling Red Sox. A new series is upon them as they now go to MLB's worst team.the Mariners. A set up for failure? Maybe, but we're going to bite. The Red Sox aren't going to lie down from a few bad games and play dead.Francour is going to be up these guys' butts pushing them further and further. That is what champions do and the Red Sox are exactly that.champions. These two are set to dual at 10:10PM EST on the west coast.
It was a risky wager taking the value with Wakefield last night.and it almost/should have paid off. However, that choke sets us up with a very nice situation here today. Lefty Jon Lester toes the rubber for Boston and this kid has been impressive. He's 7-2 overall and 1-0 in his last three starts with his bullpen giving away two decisions. Lester has pitched a solid 125 innings and flouted a respectable ERA of 3.34 overall. He has a WHIP of 1.33 too. Ortiz and Lugo will remain sidelined for this one, but there is already enough power already in this line up. Unexpectedly, Seattle has held their own in this year's series with Boston at three apiece. Lester has not pitched against them yet. It comes down to Boston being the better team and getting their streak back on track to keep pace with the Devil Rays.
Jarrod Washburn will start for Seattle. Washburn is a horrid 4-8 on the season with an ERA approaching 5.00. He's given up 124 hits in just 103 innings pitched. Seattle competed with the Major's second worst this past week in the Indians. There isn't much to say about this squad except they struggle. They don't do much right and it seems to us they've pretty much turned things in for the season. Games are becoming routine and more of a job rather than a winning mindset.
Let's do things right here and not over analyze the situation with a million stats or figures. Boston is the better team. The better team doesn't always win in the game of baseball, but situations and value are what pay off in the long run. This is a prime situation for Boston and there is some sweet value with the low limit price. We're taking Lester and the Red Sox to get a win in Seattle Monday for 30 units.
TRENDS OF THE GAME:
-The Red Sox are 62-30 in their last 92 games on grass.
-The Red Sox are 22-5 in Lester's last 27 starts on grass.
-The Mariners are 2-6 in their last 8 Monday games.
-The Mariners are 3-8 in their last 11 games on grass.
-The Mariners are 3-8 in their last 11 games overall.
Boston 8, Seattle 3
Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox
The Play: Chicago White Sox -150
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
We hope you didn't cringe too badly upon clicking the "My Plays" tab atop the page. We realize this one today might not be the most popular and could easily be titled as a flat out square play in Chicago, but the hell with all that. The Rangers come off a 1-0 win last night in Minnesota and head across country to face another AL Central powerhouse in the White Sox. Game time is set for 8:10PM EST Monday night.
We rode the Chi Sox a few days ago and they paid off pretty well knocking up the Royals at home. Monday they stay home and the Rangers come in a couple games over .500. This is no time for Guillen and Company to start slacking. Chicago, at 55-42 on the year, was predicted to be middle of the pack at best in this division and have really opened some eyes so far. Call them contenders, call them pretenders, but this squad is playing some pretty darn good ball right now. This offensive is among the best, and defensively their somewhat solid all the way around. Righty Javier Vazquez will put his fingers on the seam to start for the Sox. Javier is 7-7 on the season and his pitching statistics aren't anything to right home about. However, one thing happens when this guy pitches and it goes back to that offense. Chicago clicks with this guy on the mound and really gives him some run support. They've went over the total 13 of 20 times with Vazquez pitching. These two teams have only met three times this season with Chicago holding a 2-1 edge and putting up 9 and 11 runs respectively in those match ups. Vazquez has yet to show his stuff to this team this year, but owned them pretty well last year going 2-0. Getting back to the mound talk, Chicago's bullpen has been spectacular. On the season they've pitched nearly 250 innings and have a combined average WHIP of 1.20 with an ERA under 2.90. On one last side note towards Chicago, we're not sweating the Jermaine Dye incident last night. Dye took a foul ball hard off the knee cap last night against KC but is expected to play at full speed Monday. Jermaine walked off the field unassisted. There are no doubtful field injuries for the White Sox tonight at this time.
On the other side, the amateur Eric Hurley will be throwing for the Rangers. Hurley has thrown just 22 innings this season and has an overall record of 1-1, and is 1-1 in his last three games. In those 22 innings Hurley has given up 22 hits and has an ERA up near 4.00. He's only about two week off the injury list from a hamstring strain too. On the road, Eric is 0-1 with an ERA close to 5.00 in just 12 short innings pitched. In those innings he's given up six runs. The Ranger's bullpen in their last three games has pitched 44 innings and has an ERA of 5.89 and a WHIP of 1.86. In the top half of the inning, Texas won't have their normal fire power with Josh Hamilton sidelined day-to-day for rest and Jarrod Saltalamacchia out with flu-like systems and a sore groin on Monday.
This one is thick and chalky, but we're still going to go after it. As of 1AM EST Monday, the odds makers have this one set at -150. We're going to recommend playing this one all the way up to a -175 favorite, for a 10 unit wager. Don't get use to laying this chalk, but let's cash this one and enjoy getting it all back Monday night.
TRENDS OF THE GAME:
-The Rangers are 2-8 in their last 10 Monday games.
-The White Sox are 37-16 in their last 53 home games.
-The White Sox are 9-2 in Vazquez's last 11 home starts.
Chicago 7, Texas 2
KELSO
25 unit Game of Month
Astros
ROBERT FERRINGO
2-Unit Play. Take Boston (-145) over Seattle
Should be lots of runs and lots of fun. Oh, the Red Sox will bring out the best that Seattle has to offer this week. But I have to think that the Sox get back in the win column and take this series. If not, I am pretty certain they aren't going to get swept. Seattle keeps pushing back Jarrod Washburn's post-All Star start. Why? Either he's not 100 percent or they want a matchup with the Sox. Well, Boston is one of the top teams in the league against left-handers and Washburn has been better on the road (4.67 ERA) than at home (5.14 ERA) so it's kind of lose-lose. Johnny Lester just wins, and the Sox are 24-9 in his last 33 starts.
2-Unit Play. Take Chicago Cubs (-135) over Arizona
This one was tough, because I have a fantastic system that suggests the D-Backs. But the way I want to play this one is that we get Game 1 with Chicago and then we get on the Backs for Games 2 and 3. Why am I crossing the streams, so to speak? Because Randy Johnson has been a wreck this year, the Cubs crush left-handed pitching, the D-Backs are coming off a stunning, stomach-punch loss to the Dodgers in a huge rivalry series over the weekend, and Rich Harden at this price is kind of a no-brainer.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Minnesota (+125) over New York Yankees
Note: If you have not played this game already, this should be a 2-UNIT PLAY.
C'mon. Which of these teams has really been the better club over the first half of the year? Seriously. Minnesota is not a great team on grass. But their speed is going to drive the Yankees nuts. We are going to chase the Twins, who are going to be an underdog in all three games. I am POSITIVE that the Twins will win one of the three games and earn us some cash.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Baltimore (-110) over Toronto
Really sound system, which I cannot divulge!, suggests that the Orioles are going to knock around the ol' Blue Jays this week. Not really much more on the play than that. Great system, sharp play.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Texas (+160) over Chicago White Sox
I feel the way about this Texas-Chicago series as I do about the Minnesota-NY series. I know the Rangers are going to slug their way to at least one win. The White Sox have a tendancy to get up early and then kind of mail games in through the last five innings or so. Can't do that against the Rangers. We're going to get strong dog odds on Texas all week and we're going to play them for one victory and a cash. Texas is 9-5 overall in this series and has won a game in each of their last five trips to Chicago.
I did not have this play up with my original set, but I would like to include:
1-Unit Play. Los Angeles Angels (-1.5, +105) over Cleveland
Tony George
KAN / DET Over 9.5
Kansas City / Detroit OVER 9.5
I like the over here. Both teams are hot at the plate and KC produced some serious offense against the White Sox over the weekend and are changing up the batting order and it is working. Detroit is 7-3 with overs the last 3 games and both teams against right handers are batting .278 or higher as a team the last 10 games combined. Neither pticher is an ace here either, so we like the over and lots of offense in this one tonight in a steamy KC.
Play 1 Unit on the OVER
Sean Higgs AL East Total of the Week
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Going OVER here. These two teams pound each others pitching. They have gone over 12 of the last 13 and 5 of the last 6 in Camden Yards. Liz has 9.95 ERA in his last six starts. Toronto lost last three Litsch starts (0-2, 11.19). Liz has gone over in 10 of his last 11 and Litsch has gone 4-1-1 over his last 6. Blue Jays / O's as my AL East Total of the Week!
Wunderdog
San Diego at Cincinnati
Pick: 3 units on Cincinnati -141
What a difference a year makes, as this San Diego team just keeps putting a bigger number in the loss column. After riding high on a season's best 13-6 run, the Padres have fallen back to what we have known them to be this season - a poor team that just doesn’t' score, and when they do they lose anyway. Their current run is 6-23, with six-straight in the loss column. The Pads have scored five runs or more in their last three, a feat they have accomplished only twice before all season. However, both times they did, it was followed by a loss. Cincinnati enters playing very well at 12-7 over their last 19, and averaging 6.6 runs per game over their last eight. The Reds certainly have enough to get the win here.
Atlanta at Florida
Pick: 5 units on Florida -111
Anytime you get a chance to lay short odds playing against the Braves on the road, it is worth a long look. The Braves were humiliated at home by the lowly Nats dropping the last two of a three-game set in Atlanta. The Braves road resume is not pretty, where they have been an anemic 15-32 on the season. Florida continues to surprise just a half game out in the East, and look like a team that’s improving. What they have done is beat the bad teams at home consistently, having logged a 21-11 mark against teams with a losing record on the season at home. They are playing superb baseball right now winners of eight of their last 11 games, and we will ride them at home in this one.
Atlanta at Florida
Pick: 3 units on Florida -1.5 runs +180
We indicated why Florida was a valued choice against the moneyline here, so it is hard to resist the nearly two-to-one dog role they face vs. the runline. The value is increased off the fact that the Marlins have been a momentum-based home team all season. They are 22-12 against the -1.5 runline at home when they are playing their fourth straight at home or more.
Boston at Seattle
Pick: 3 units on Seattle +133
It is hard to figure out this Boston team, but why not take advantage of the perception vs. the reality? Boston is a good team, but not on the road. They have been nearly unbeatable at home producing a 36-11 mark and a winning percentage of 76.6%. They have been a horrible road team at 21-32 producing a winning percentage of 39.6%. Recently, their road woes have been even worse as they have now produced just two wins in their last 12 road games. The bottom line is at this loss rate on the road projected over 162 games, they would lose nearly 100. A team like that would never be favored on the road, especially in this range hence the value. You must also remember that this is a team that has already taken two of three at home over Boston already this season. There is just too much value here to pass this one up.
Boston at Seattle
Pick: 5 units on Seattle +1.5 runs -131
Our logic against the moneyline here prevails against the runline as well, and a chance to double-dip a game that features a lot of value on the home team. Add in the fact that Boston strands a lot of base runners this season, and has scored three runs or less in three straight games. Teams in this situation have been 137-210 to the -1.5 runline, so more value on Seattle against the runline as well. Seattle has also feasted at home on the runline against teams that strand 7.5 runners a game or more such as Boston, where they are 62-37 against the runline over such teams.
Southcoast Sports
Atlanta Braves vs. Florida Marlins
Florida Marlins -108 3-Units
It will be interesting to see how Florida's top pitching prospect will fair in his third appearance of the season. Chris Volstad has shown promise in one relief appearance and one start so for this season. He has allowed one earned run over 10 innings of work, holding opposing hitters to a .194 batting average. His sinking fastball got the job done in the minors, and now it seems to be working in the majors. It's still early to make a judgement for, or against him, but from the looks of things, he will have a promising career at this level. Volstad will be opposed by Atlanta's Jorge Campillo. Campillo has pitched decently on the season, but has given up 4 home runs over his last 3 games. He will be facing a Florida team that loves to hit homers. The last time he faced them he lasted just 4 innings after giving up two long balls and 4 earned runs. The Braves are hitting .210 and scoring 3.92 runs a game vs righties over their last 10 games, while Florida is hitting .257 and scoring 4.33 runs a game vs righties over their last 10. Atlanta is still one of the worst road teams in the Majors, while Florida is strong in the late innings with a solid bullpen.
Take the Florida Marlins -108 for 3-Units!
Greg Shaker
Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals
Play: Royals -108 Unit Value: 2
The Tigers got their win yesterday with Mr. Ace Guy on the mound and facing the lefty and now they will travel again to play a team that has given them a lot of trouble. The Tigers might be in better position if not for an 0-6 record against the Royals. Detroit, which has been outscored 26-11 in the season series, dropped all three games at Kansas City from May 13th to May 15th. This Tiger team can score and they did at Baltimore but struggled to win 2 out of 4 due to a throwing staff that continues to be very much below par. KC is scoring a lot of runs and they are winning games. They have done so at 5-2 last 7, including taking 2 of 3 at Chicago. This bunch is not scared of the Big Bad Tiger and they certainly will not be verses a guy that they have tagged at will over his career, and one that has not been in a starting position very often. Detroit is ragging and tagging their way through the 2008 campaign and unless they can find somebody to put out fires, they are going to be Home to Motown when the playoffs begin. Minor has been impressive out of the Pen but rarely throws more than 1 inning per outing and his absense there tonight is not going to benefit the visitors. Miner has started 17 games over three seasons, going 7-7 with a 5.08 ERA. That is not deserving of an Espy and low and behold, he did not get one last night. He is also not deserving with his work verses Kansas City. Miner is 0-2 with an 8.36 ERA in eight games, two starts, against Kansas City. Both losses came in starts, as he was pounded for 10 runs and 13 hits in 4 2/3 total innings. Did I mention that these Royals can hit? Hochevar is 1-0 with a 0.96 ERA in career two games, one start, against the Tigers. He beat them at home on May 14, allowing four hits in six innings of a 2-0 victory. He is one of those guys who likes the home cooking and Luke has a 4-2 record here at this park this year with very good Innings/Hits ratios and a much better than average ERA of Under 3.5 Runs. He will be throwing at the Worst Hitting Position that Detroit has to offer, batting Under .240 on the road against righthanded pitching. There is no doubt that the Home Team has the better bullpen, there is no doubt that they are more rested, and there is no doubt that they have more guys to go to when needed. KC has beaten the Tigers 6 straight times this year. They have the advantages again tonight as they return home for some of the best BBQ in the World. I think that Smoked Tiger is on the Menu tonight.
Anthony Capone
10 Dimes Twins +112
10 Dimes Red Sox -140
10 Dimes Tigers +100
Steven Budin-CEO
25 DIME
NEW YORK YANKEES
MATT FARGO
Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks
PICK: Chicago Cubs -133
The Cubs salvaged a game in their series with the Astros and that winner on Sunday can provide some much needed momentum heading into this big series with Arizona. The offense busted out for nine runs yesterday which was the biggest output in its last 10 games. The Cubs are 5-5 in their last 10 road games and over that span, the pitching came up huge. They allowed two runs or less six times while allowing an average of only 3.0 rpg. The road ERA is 3.97, third best in the National League.
Arizona dropped it series to the Dodgers and thus dropped back into a tie for first in the National League West. The Diamondbacks have been in a big swoon of late and there seems to be no letting up. Through May 15th, the Diamondbacks were 27-15 but have since gone 21-35 and coming off a loss has not been good as they have come in bunches. The offense remains one of the worst in baseball, hitting only .250 on the season, 26th in all of baseball and its 4.4 rpg is just 18th overall.
The Cubs send their latest ace to the hill as Rich Harden makes his first road start with the team. Harden had a successful debut in Chicago despite not tossing a quality start. He allowed just one run in 5.1 innings and he was taken out due to a high pitch count. Reason being is that he struck out 10 Giants. He has a 2.19 ERA on the season and he has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 13 of his 14 starts with a game at Texas being the only exception. This is his first ever start against Arizona which is a big edge.
It is safe to say that Randy Johnson?s best days are behind him. He actually started the season ok after coming off the disabled list but it has been a disaster since early June. He had a solid 3.88 ERA through his first 10 starts but in his last seven starts since June 3rd, he has posted a horrendous 7.20 ERA. He has allowed seven runs three times in those games. Arizona is 2-8 in his last 10 starts and the Cubs are 17-10 against left-handed starters this season while hitting .292 against southpaw pitching.
Play Chicago Cubs 1.5 Units
Steve Merril
Oakland Athletics vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Pick: Under 7.5
Two struggling offenses and two excellent pitching staffs should lead to a low-scoring game tonight. Despite being in playoff contention, the Athletics have unloaded two star pitchers and it appears this has deflated the team’s morale as Oakland is now 0-5 in their past five games and they have scored just 1, 3, 1, 3, and 1 run in each game for an average of just 1.8 runs per game. Tampa Bay is also struggling as they stand just 2-8 in their past ten games and they have averaged just 2.5 runs per game during that span, including scoring 2 runs or less in 6 of their past 9 games. Both offenses are likely to struggle again tonight as my pitcher performance ratings predict a solid outing for both starters this evening. Oakland’s Dana Eveland has a solid 3.49 ERA in his 19 starts this season with a 12-5-2 Under record. Eveland is averaging only 6 innings per start, but Oakland has a strong bullpen with a 3.34 ERA and 1.23 WHIP that can finish the game. Tampa Bay’s Scott Kazmir is having a fantastic season with a 3.04 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in his 14 starts with a powerful 91-31 strikeout/walk ratio and a 9-5 Under record. Kazmir has been particularly strong at home with a 1.96 ERA and 1.09 WHIP and a 42-19 K/BB ratio with a 5-2 Under mark. Kazmir got the win in the All-Star game on Tuesday and has five days of rest to recover and prepare for tonight’s start. Even if Kazmir is limited, the D-Rays’ excellent bullpen will finish the job as they enter with a 2.25 ERA and 1.02 WHIP at home this season.Play UNDER the total.
Vernon Croy 20 Unit MLB Bookie Buster
Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona D-Backs
Pick:Chicago Cubs
20 Units, Take Chicago ML, This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and the Cubs have the superior pitcher on the mound tonight. Rich Harden (5-1, 2.19 ERA) has pitched solid overall this season and he has an ERA of just 2.35 over his last 3 starts while allowing no earned runs over his last start while lasting 5.3 innings. Randy Johnson (6-7, 5.23 ERA) has struggled at home this season with an ERA of 6.43 over 9 starts and while allowing 63 hits and 11 homeruns over just 49 innings. The Cubs are hitting .285 as a team against lefty starters this season while averaging 6.2 rpg and the D-Backs are just 14-27 when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The Cubs are now 24-13 in their last 37 games as a road favorite of -125 to -150 and Randy Johnson's perfect 10-0 record against the Cubs ends tonight.