Tom Freese
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona is 4-0 their last 4 games vs. teams with a losing home record and they are 5-1 in the last 6 starts made by Micah Owings vs. NL West foes. The Diamondbacks are 4-1 their last 5 road games. San Diego is 8-20 their last 28 games games vs. righty starters and they are 13-39 their last 52 games vs. winning teams. The Padres are 2-12 their last 14 home games and they are 2-7 with Greg Maddux vs. winning teams. PLAY ON ARIZONA
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Colorado vs. Pittsburgh over 5 in 1st 5 IN
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Colorado vs. Pittsburgh over 9.5
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LA Dodgers
Tony Karpinski
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Over
For more than two months, the Chicago White Sox have controlled the AL Central. To continue controlling it, they'll need to continue their recent success against the Minnesota Twins. The White Sox look to distance themselves from the second-place Twins as the division rivals open a four-game set on Monday at the Metrodome. Chicago (59-44) has not been out of first place since May 16, and maintained its perch over the weekend by taking two of three from Detroit to start its 10-game road trip. The White Sox, however, dropped Sunday's series finale 6-4 and watched their division lead shrink to just 2 1/2 games over Minnesota, which won 4-2 at Cleveland. Look for both teams to hit in the dome and you can expect plenty of runs on Monday night. Play on the OVER
Sportsbettingstats
New York Mets at Florida Marlins
The New Mets come into this game in 1st place in the NL East and in their last game beat the St. Louis Cardinals 9-1, while the Marlins lost to the Cubs 9-6. The NL East race is very tight, as even though the Mets are in 1st place they only lead the Marlins by 2 games. In their last 10 games the Mets are 6-4, while the Marlins are 5-5 in their last 10 games. Nobody thought the Fish would be in the race at this point in the season, but they are hanging around and are a force to reckon with in the division. Taking the mound for the Mets is John Maine (9-7 4.20 ERA), who in his last start went 7 innings giving up 3 earned runs in a win. In yesterdays win over the Cardinals the Mets scored 9 runs on 17 hits and left 9 men on base. On defense the Mets gave up only 1 run on 6 hits. Taking the mound for the Marlins is Ricky Nolasco, who in his last outing went 5 innings giving up 5 earned runs in a loss. In yesterdays loss to the Cubs the Marlins scored 6 runs on 9 hits and left 6 men on base. On defense the Marlins gave up 9 runs on 12 hits to the Cubs.
Staff Pick: The Mets are on fire lately winning 15 of their last 19 games, which has launched them to 1st place in the division. The Marlins are staying in the race even though in their last 8 games they are hitting .190, but have gone yard 11 times in that span. The pitching match up in this game has to go to the Mets, as Marlins starter Nolasco is 0-2 in his last 2 games giving up 15 hits and 9 runs in only 12 innings of work. Mets starter Maine hopes he can pitch like last year against the Marlins, where he went 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 38 strikeouts in 25 2/3 innings over 4 starts against Florida in 2007. Nolasco is 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA in his last three games against the Mets. The Mets begin a 6 game road trip tonight and want to stay atop the NL East, while they are away from Shea and this series in the Sunshine State is a big one. The Mets are under .500 on the road, but have been playing well as of late. The Mets are hot, have a hotter pitcher on the mound, and do not want to relinquish 1st place in the NL East. Even with all the chips stacked against them the Marlins are coming home and the home field advantage will push them over the top, as they will win the 1st game of this series.
Marlins 7 Mets 3
PricelessPicks
1 Unit on Tampa Bay Rays +103
The Rays have had Toronto 's number in the AL East. The Rays are 8-2 in the last 10 meetings and 5-0 in Shields' last 5 starts vs. the Blue Jays. The Blue Jays are 0-5 in Burnett's last 5 starts vs. the Rays. The Rays are 6-1 in Shields' last 7 starts and 5-0 in Shields' last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.The Blue Jays are playing well, but their problems with the Rays will continue tonight.
Ben Burns
Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox
PICK: Boston Red Sox
After getting swept at LA less than two weeks ago, the Red Sox have payback on their minds this evening. As expected, they got back on track with a big win over the Yankees last night. They should be able to carry the momentum into tonight's game, particularly as they send red hot Dice-K, who has an awesome 0.87 ERA his last three starts, to the mound. The Red Sox are 8-1 when Matsuzaka has started at home this season and he's posted a 3.02 ERA in those games. Dating back to last year, they're 11-1 his last 12 home starts. On the other hand, the Angels are 4-6 when Weaver has started on the road and he has a 4.50 ERA during that stretch. Dating back to last season, the Angels are just 6-11 when Weaver has started on the road.
Matsuzaka has faced the Angels only once. That came last season (Game 2 of the ALDS) and Boston won by a score of 6-3. Conversely, the Red Sox already pounded Weaver earlier this season (10 hits, 2 HRs and five runs in five innings!) and are 5-1 all-time against him. Weaver was 0-3 with a 5.18 ERA in those games. The Red Sox, now 37-13 at Fenway, have the best home record in the American League and they've got fewer home losses than any team in baseball. Even before last night's offensive explosion, they were hitting .295 at home while averaging 5.7 runs per game here. That compares very favorably to the Angels .249 average and 4.4 runs per game scored on the road. Lastly, note that with yesterday's victory, the Red Sox are now 16-2 on the season when listed as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range. Consider a play on BOSTON
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NATIONAL LEAGUE
Chicago Cubs (61-44) at Milwaukee (60-45)
CC Sabathia (4-0, 1.36 ERA) goes for his fifth straight win as a Brewer when he leads Milwaukee against the Cubs as the top two teams in the N.L. Central begin a key four-game series at Miller Park. Chicago will counter with lefty Ted Lilly (10-6, 4.49).
The Brewers lost two of three at home to the lowly Astros over the weekend, but they’re still 9-2 in their last 11 games, and they trail Chicago by a game in the Central Division standings. Also, Milwaukee is on positive streaks of 12-5 as a home favorite, 19-8 against the N.L. Central and 14-4 versus lefty starters.
Chicago salvaged a four-game weekend split with the Marlins with Sunday’s 9-6 home victory, but Lou Piniella’s club is just 4-7 in its last 11 contests overall, 6-13 in its last 19 on the highway and 1-9 in its last 10 as an underdog.
The Brewers lead the season series 4-2, with all six games played at Wrigley Field.
Sabathia has started his Milwaukee career with four straight quality starts, giving up two earned runs or fewer in each outing, including a complete-game, three-hit, 3-0 victory in St. Louis on Wednesday. Sabathia is 2-0 with a 2.40 ERA in two starts at Miller Park.
Lilly has given up a total of four earned runs in his last two starts covering 13 innings, with Chicago losing 2-1 at Houston and winning 10-6 at Arizona. The veteran hurler is 5-3 with a 3.84 ERA in eight road starts, but 1-2 with a 5.64 ERA in four career starts against Milwaukee, including an 8-2 home loss on April 2.
The over is 4-0 in Lilly’s four career starts against the Brewers, 5-1 in his last six starts overall, 4-1 in his last five on the road and 8-2 in his last 10 against the N.L. Central. Also, the over is 7-1 in Milwaukee’s last eight at home and 7-1-2 in the last 10 series clashes at Miller Park.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MILWAUKEE and OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
L.A. Angels (64-40) at Boston (61-45)
Daisuke Matsuzaka (11-1, 2.63) looks to continue his incredible midseason run when he leads the Red Sox against the Angels, who are set to hand the ball to Jered Weaver (8-8, 4.08) in the opener of a three-game series at Fenway Park.
The Red Sox routed the Yankees 9-2 on Sunday night to avoid getting swept by their archrivals. Boston is still just 4-5 since the All-Star break, but Terry Francona’s squad is still riding streaks of 41-13 at home, 57-24 as a favorite and 19-5 when Matsuzaka pitches at Fenway Park.
Los Angeles had a four-game winning streak halted in Sunday’s 5-2 loss at Baltimore. Still, the Halos are on runs of 9-2 overall, 4-1 on the road, 10-3 as an underdog and 6-1 against the A.L. East.
The Angels swept a three-game set from the Red Sox in Anaheim a week ago, and they’ve won five straight meetings. Still, Los Angeles is just 8-21 in its last 29 games at Fenway Park.
Matsuzaka is 3-0 with a 0.88 ERA in his last five starts, giving up three earned runs in 30 2/3 innings. Boston is 14-3 in his 17 starts this year, including 8-1 at home.
Like Matsuzaka, Weaver is on his own hot streak, giving up two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts, posting a 1.95 ERA during this stretch. However, the Angels have alternated wins and losses in the right-hander’s last seven outings, winning 3-2 at Cleveland on Tuesday. Weaver is also 0-2 with a 5.46 ERA in five career regular-season starts against the BoSox. In fact, including one playoff start, the Angels are 1-5 when Weaver pitches against the Red Sox (0-3 in Boston).
For the Angels, the under is on streaks of 26-12-2 on the road, 12-4-1 as an underdog and 4-1 when Weaver toils on the road. The under is also 23-9-3 in Boston’s last 35 games on Mondays and 4-1 in Matsuzaka’s last five starts overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE:BOSTON and UNDER
Chicago White Sox (59-44) at Minnesota (57-47)
The top two teams in the A.L. Central duke it out in the opener of a four-game series inside the Metrodome, where the Twins’ Kevin Slowey (6-7, 4.41) is scheduled to oppose Chicago’s Mark Buehrle (8-8, 3.56).
The White Sox had a four-game winning streak halted in Sunday’s 6-4 loss at Detroit, dropping to 7-14 in their last 21 road games. They’re also 1-9 in their last 10 contests on artificial turf, but 8-2 in Buehrle’s last 10 starts against the Twins.
Minnesota has followed up a five-game slide with back-to-back wins at Cleveland on Saturday (11-4) and Sunday (4-2). Now the Twins return home, where they have won 18 of their last 23 games.
Chicago, which leads the Twins by 2½ games in the Central race, has won five straight against Minnesota, but all at home. In fact, the host is 9-2 in the 11 meetings this season, only two of which have been played in the Metrodome.
The Twins had won six straight games behind Slowey prior to Tuesday’s 8-2 loss at the Yankees. Since a four-start stretch in which he surrendered just three runs in 29 innings (0.93 ERA), Slowey has gotten tagged for 14 runs on 19 hits in his last three outings covering 15 innings (8.40 ERA).
Slowey is 1-2 with a 6.62 ERA in four career appearances (three starts) against Chicago. Both losses came exactly a month apart in Chicago earlier this season, a 12-2 defeat and a 6-2 setback, with Slowey allowing 11 runs (all earned) in eight innings.
Buehrle is 6-2 in his last nine starts, and he’s allowed three earned runs or fewer in 11 of his past 13 trips to the hill, including yielding one earned run or fewer eight times. The southpaw beat the Rangers 10-2 at home on Tuesday, giving up just a solo home run in 7 1/3 innings. He’s posted a 1.66 ERA over his last three starts.
Buehrle is 21-11 with a 3.78 ERA in 35 career games (33 starts) against Minnesota. Two of those starts came this year in Chicago, with Buehrle giving up seven runs over 5 2/3 innings of a 13-1 loss on June 7, then holding the Twins to a run in eight innings of an 11-2 victory exactly a month later.
The over is 4-0 in the last four series meetings, 6-2 in Buehrle’s last eight outings against Minnesota, 8-1-1 in Chicago’s last 10 overall, 5-2-1 in Chicago’s last eight on the road and 5-2-1 in Slowey’s last eight starts overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA and OVER
JEFF BENTON
Today's Selection
Hey, I can't say anything negative about CC Sabathia; the hefty lefty has been a machine since slipping on a Brewers uniform for the first time, winning all four starts while posting a sub-2.00 ERA. However, to get the Cubs at this big of a plus price, with a veteran pitcher like Ted Lilly on the hill, is a gamble worth taking.
After all, Lilly has actually pitched better on the road this season (5-3, 3.84 ERA) than he has at home (5-3, 5.34 ERA). Also, Lilly has registered a quality start in eight of his last 10, including four of the last five. Finally, the overall stats tell us that the Cubs (.284 team average against lefties) have fared much better against southpaws this year than Milwaukee (.268 team average).
Bottom line: We've seen more than a few times just since the All-Star break that a team with a massive starting pitching advantage has failed to bring home the cash. And with the Cubs clinging to a one-game lead over Milwaukee in the Central Division race and in full desperation mode, I wouldn?t be at all shocked to see another big favorite go down. In fact, there's little doubt that none of Sabathia's first three N.L. opponents (Cardinals, Giants, Reds) pack the kind of offensive punch Chicago does.
Take the massive plus money with Soriano, Lee, Ramirez, Soto, Fukudome and the hard-hitting Cubbies.
2♦ CHICAGO CUBS
MATT RIVERS
For Monday take some coin back with the Angels.
Just a total no-brainer here on the visiting Halos. Sure the Red Sox at Fenway have been brilliant overall this season but things have not been so great of late. The Yankees just came to town and won the series meaning that Boston is in a total three team dog fight the rest of the way. Big Papi has returned but then immediately Manny has some knee issues and all is just not right at this time in Beantown.
Anaheim comes to town with the best road mark in all of baseball and just beat up the Orioles at Camden Yards. Vlad and company do have some hitting issues at times but recently we have not seen that as Vlad, Hunter, Kotchman and the rest of Mike Scioscia's team is quietly getting in great position to make a World Series run.
Dice-K has been sensational this season, save that one start off of the DL at home and probably will be alright today but Jered Weaver is a quality righty himself and should be just fine as well. I do expect the hurlers to put up a bunch of gooseggs and for this game to come down to the end in a tight contest. With Shields and K-Rod on the back end how can you not take some coin back with arguably the best team in baseball right now in this spot!
Tony Mathew's
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
Selection: Chicago White Sox -110
The Chicago White Sox will use starting pitcher Mark Buehrle. Mark Buehrle has been pitching very well as of late. In fact, Mark Buehrle has a 1.66 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Mark Buehrle pitching another great game today.
The Minnesota Twins will use starting pitcher Kevin Slowey. Kevin Slowey has been struggling as of late. In fact, Kevin Slowey has a 9.00 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Kevin Slowey pitching another bad game today.
The Chicago White Sox are a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 meetings against the Minnesota Twins, and should be able to get another win tonight!
Take the Chicago White Sox!
JOHN FINA
Arizona/San Diego Over 8
Today we expect a high-scoring game as the Arizona Diamondbacks take on the San Diego Padres. One reason why we expect a high-scoring game is because both these teams will be sending to the mound struggling starting pitchers. This says it all... The Arizona Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher (Micah Owings) has a 5.06 ERA in his last 3 starts, while San Diego Padres Starting Pitcher (Greg Maddux) has a 6.06 ERA in his last 3 starts. As you can see, both these starting pitchers have been struggling as of late. To say the least, we should see a high-scoring game today! Take the Arizona Diamondbacks/San Diego Padres Over 8!
Matty O'Shea Triple Dime NL Value Play O' the Year
HOU -1.5 (+135) vs CIN
You simply will not find better value in the National League this season, which is why I am making this one of my biggest plays of the year. Astros ace Roy Oswalt comes off the DL to face a Reds team he is 19-1 lifetime against with a stellar 2.46 ERA. Before Oswalt suffered a hip injury at Washington back on July 11th, he had allowed just two runs in his previous two home starts against NL teams in the Dodgers and Brewers while walking none and striking out 19 in 13 innings of work. Houston is hitting .312 against righties in the last 10 games and faces Cincinnati's Johnny Cueto, who is 0-1 in his last three starts with a 6.50 ERA. Cueto threw a career-high 120 pitches last time out on July 22nd against San Diego, and the last time he threw 115 pitches, he surrendered six runs in five innings of a 10-0 home loss to St. Louis on June 11th. He is also just 2-6 in nine road starts with a 5.48 ERA, with all of the losses decided by at least three runs. Offensively, the Reds are hitting just .240 against righties this season and hit just .165 in getting swept by the Rockies at home over the weekend. Meanwhile, the Astros are coming off a big series win at Milwaukee, and they have won the last six meetings with Cincinnati by an average of 3.5 runs per game. Taking everything into consideration, look for Oswalt to get plenty of run support here in his return and bet Houston on the runline as my Triple Dime NL Value Play O' the Year
Black Widow Sports
1* on Colorado Rockies -113
Colorado is coming on strong as we near the end of the season. The Rockies have won 9 of their last 10 games overall and five straight heading into tonight’s contest with Pittsburgh. Their games haven’t even been close either. Two of the nine wins game by 2 runs, but the other seven came by 3 runs or more. This is a team that nobody wants to play right now. Ian Snell is in for a short outing for Pittsburgh. Snell is 3-8 with a 6.10 ERA this year. The Rockies have won four straight games over the Pirates in 2008, outscoring Pittsburgh 28-9 in the process. Take Colorado on the Money Line.
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Pittsburgh Pirates +105
The Rockies are rolling, but the reality is that they are still one of the worst teams in the N.L. and you have to like the Bucs in the home dog role here. The Rockies are 16-36 in their last 52 road games, 9-23 in their last 32 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, and 1-6 in their last 7 Monday games. The Pirates are 6-2 in Snell's last 8 Monday starts and 4-1 in their last 5 Monday games. This team has started week's off well throughout the season and then trailed off as the week has gone on. We'll bet the Bucs tonight.
Info Plays
3* on Florida Marlins +105
The Marlins are showing awesome value with Ricky Nolasco at home tonight. He’s 10-6 with a 3.99 ERA this season and has easily been the most steady starter the Marlins have to offer. Nolasco has won back-to-back starts against the Mets, allowing New York to score just 4 runs off of him. Nolasco is 11-5 as an underdog of +100 or higher this season. The Mets are just 2-13 in road games after hitting 3 or more home runs in 2 consecutive games since 1997. New York’s bats will cool off tonight as Nolasco picks up his third straight win over his division rivals. Bet the Marlins at home behind Nolasco.