ROBERT ROSS
Colorado Rockies at Pittsburgh Pirates
Prediction: Colorado Rockies
Rockies are 9-1 since the ASB and 27-14 against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Take Colorado!
SPORTS KINGZ
TEXAS +105
DETROIT -115
ST. LOUIS EV
YANKEES -165
ARIZONA EV
DODGERS -200
Scott Delaney
This is the longest road trip of the season for the jungle stripes, and starting off on a winning note is extremely important. Thus, we side with a Detroit team needing an inspiring road trip to stay in contention in the AL Central. Yesterday's win reduced the team's deficit in the division to 6-1/2 games. That number could shrink further with the division?s top two teams - Chicago and Minnesota playing a four-game series this week.
And the highway has felt like home for Detroit, as it brings a five-game road winning streak into Cleveland and sends Kenny Rogers to the hill off consecutive wins after he stifled the Royals in his last outing. The Indians have lost four of their last five, so Rogers catches this team in a downtrodden state. He's sure to get the run support, as Paul Byrd toes the slab for the Tribe. Though he won his last start, the right-hander went into that game with a 0-5 record and 7.76 ERA in his previous six starts.
Play the Tigers in this one.
2♦ TIGERS
Invetment Playmakers
20* Twins
LT Profits
Cincinnati Reds +135
Roy Oswalt of the Houston Astros is 19-1 in 24 career appearances against his opponent tonight, the Cincinnati Reds, but he is making his first start since being disabled with a hip injury, and the fact that the Houston bullpen is expected to be called on early makes the Astros a dicey proposition as favorites.
Besides, Oswalt was not having a typical season even before the injury, as he is just 7-8 with an uncharacteristic 4.56 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. While he is certainly better than that, he will not get a chance to fully prove that tonight since he will undoubtedly be on a pitch count, and the Astros bullpen ranks fifth from the bottom out of 30 major league teams with a 4.35 ERA.
Now Johnny Cueto has virtually identical numbers to Oswalt this year, as he is 7-9 with a 4.90 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. That in itself give the Reds value as big dogs, but they gain even more value when you consider that Cueto has more upside, looking downright dominant at times this year, and that Cincinnati has the far superior bullpen, ranking ninth in the majors with a 3.53 ERA.
Given that we do not expect Oswalt to be dominant in his first start back, we actually feel that the Reds have the pitching edge here after you factor in the bullpens, making them an easy call at this price.
Pick: Reds +135
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres Under 7.5
Greg Maddux of the San Diego Padres has turned back the clock at home this year, while Micah Owings has gone Under in his last three starts. Throw in two suspect offenses, and runs should be hard to come by tonight.
Maddux may be just 1-3 at home, but he has a 2.51 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 11 home starts. That should give you an idea of just how bad the San Diego offense has been here. The last time that Maddux faced the D-Backs in this stadium, he allowed just one run in seven innings, and that was last season when the Arizona offense was much better than it is this year.
Now Owings may have a 4.66 ERA on the road, but he has allowed exactly three runs in three straight starts, and besides, the Padres offense could make any competent pitcher look like Cy Young, especially at home. The Pads are batting a modest .242.as a team while averaging a lowly 3.58 runs per game in San Diego this year.
These teams have gone Under in each of the last four head-to-head meetings with none of those meetings exceeding six runs, and we look for more of the same tonight.
Pick: Diamondbacks, Padres Under 7.5
Locksmith Sports
1 Unit on Atlanta Braves +100
St. Louis has not had many successful trips to Atlanta recently. The Cardinals are just 6-15 in their last 21 meetings in Atlanta . The Cardinals head into this one having won just 1 of their last 7 games. Atlanta will be glad to see its home field again following a long road stretch. The Braves are an impressive 42-15 in their last 57 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Atlanta is also 45-15 against the money line after allowing 7 runs or more 2 straight games since 1997. The Braves will take care of business at home tonight.
Dwayne Bryant
Colorado Rockies at Pittsburgh Pirates
Pick: Colorado Rockies -113
The Rockies' bats have been red-hot and, as a result, they have won five straight and nine of their last ten games. Over its last eight games, Colorado has a .394 team batting average with 10 home runs and 34 doubles. The Rockies have scored in double digits four times in their last seven contests and have compiled at least 11 hits in eight straight games. Colorado swept a four-game series at home against Pittsburgh on July 17-20 by a combined score of 28-9.
Now the Rockies get to face Ian Snell. Snell is 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA in his last three starts and has given up seven home runs in his last six outings. Snell faced Colorado on July 18, giving up four runs - three earned - and six hits in six innings as Pittsburgh lost 5-2. He is 1-2 with a 4.66 ERA in three starts and one relief appearance all-time against the Rockies.
Colorado counters with Jason Hirsh, making his first major league start of the season after suffering a strained rotator cuff in spring training. The right-hander is 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA in two starts versus the Pirates. He'll face a Pittsburgh team which averaged 2.3 runs in its last series with Colorado. The Pirates could be without starting second baseman Freddy Sanchez. Sanchez left Sunday's game after his at-bat in the first inning with back spasms. The Bucs are also trying to fill the offensive void left by the departure of Xavier Nady, who was traded to the Yankees a few days ago.
Take red-hot Colorado with Hirsh over Pittsburgh and Snell.
Black Magic Sports
1 Unit on Toronto Blue Jays -110
Toronto’s A.J. Burnett is finding a groove out on the mound over his last three starts. Burnett has gone 2-1 with a miniscule 1.77 ERA during that span. Burnett owns a 7-2 record in all home starts this season. The Blue Jays will beat up on James Shields tonight. Shields is just 2-5 with a sub-par 6.26 ERA on the road. In 15 lifetime starts facing the Rays, Burnett has gone 6-4 with a solid 3.17 ERA. Tampa Bay is 4-21 in road games in July games over the last 2 seasons. The Rays are just 4-20 in road games after scoring 1 run or less over the last 2 seasons. Toronto is 14-4 in July home games over the last 2 seasons. The Rays are 4-25 vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Cash in with Toronto as my free play Monday.
Wunderdog
Tampa Bay at Toronto
Pick: Toronto -112
The Rays have been the biggest surprise of the season leading the AL East over the Red Sox and Yankees. Most of that success can be attributed to their dominance at home where they are 40-16. The road has presented a completely different story where the Rays are just 21-29. A 71.4% winning team is reduced to a 42% winning team. The Jays meanwhile, have done a good job all season at home winning 58% of their games at 29-21. James Shields is no different. The Rays are 11-1 when he takes the mound at home, but just 3-6 on the road. AJ Burnett has been outstanding of late pitching to a stellar 1.77 ERA over his last three starts. We like the Jays to take the opener at home.
Stan Sharp Money Line Double-Dime Bet
NYM (-120) vs FLA
Mr East
Game: Kansas City Royals @ Oakland Athletics
Pick: 4 units Oakland Athletics -121
Jack greinke spent a lot of time in the bullpen last season, and became a fulltime starter again this season. It payed dividends for the Royals early as Greinke owned a 2.18 ERA through May 18th. As the innings have mounted, so has his ERA, as Greinke has pitched to a 5.70 ERA since, and even worse late over 7 in his last 3 starts. While the Royals were 7-2 in his first 9 starts, they are just 4-9 in his last 13. Dallas Braden pitched 5 innings allowing just 1 run in his 1st start of the season last time out. The A's offense has picked it up of late and we like them at home vs a struggling Greinke.
Jack Clayton Guaranteed Selections
3* Red Sox/Angels Over
You need a rested bullpen when Dice-K Matzusaka pitches, but the Red Sox are off a 3-game series with the rival Yankees and their talented offense. The bullpen, as usual, got worn down in the series. Now Dice-K goes and he's not an innings-eater, a walking too many batters. Boston's offense got a boost this weekend with the return of Big Papi. LA starter Jared Weaver is 0-2 with a 5.46 ERA against the Red Sox. Fenway is a hitter's park, so look for plenty of runs. Play the Angels/Red Sox over the total!
King Maker
Boston Red Sox -1.5 +120
Dodgers/Giants Over 7.5 -115
The Dodgers Over 4 -130
Winners Edge
Pittsburg Pirates Even , 2 units
Cubs / Astros over 7.5 , 2 units
Houston Astos - 145 , 1 unit
NY Yankees RL + 125 , 1 unit
Las Vegas Sports Advisors
ALL 5* PLAYS
Boston/D. Matsuzaka -154 Play of the Day
Detroit/P. Byrd -105
NY Yankees/M. Mussina -162
St. Louis/B. Looper -108
FREE PICK
Arizona/M. Owings +104