NELLY
Nelly's 1-Star ‘OVER’ Colorado at Pittsburgh
The numbers for Ian Snell are simply terrible this season with a 6.10 ERA and 61 walks in only 103 innings. Snell has gone six straight starts allowing a home run and at least three walks and his season WHIP is an insanely high 1.92 as opponents are hitting .306 against him. Jason Hirsh has had moments of big league success the past two seasons but he had very marginal numbers in AAA and walks have been a big problem. Don’t expect either pitcher to go deep into this game and neither team has a shutdown caliber bullpen. Both offenses have been hot with Pittsburgh averaging 5.2 runs per game and the Rockies posting 7.6 runs per game in the last ten contests. Look for more big numbers today as both teams excel against right-handed pitching. Nelly’s rates picks 1-3 units, this selection is rated 1-unit.
Oscarxena Sports
Florida +1.01 (3 Unit Play)
A big series starts tonight in Florida as the Marlins take on the Mets. The Marlins will have Ricky Nolasco on the mound and he has pitched very well this year going 10-6 with a 3.99 ERA in 128 2/3 innings of work and compiling a nice 1.23 WHIP. Nolasco has pitched poorly in his last two outings however but has the confidence going in when taking on the Mets as he is 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA in his last three starts against them. The Mets meanwhile will have John Maine on the hill off of a big win against the Phillies but Maine before that game was really struggling as he was 0-2 with a 6.63 ERA in four starts of which three of them were on the road. The Marlins have a 29-23 record at home this year while the Mets are only 25-28 on the road and I will look for the small underdog Marlins to get this game tonight.
Chicago Cubs +1.58 (3 Unit Play)
In a game where you have two evenly matched teams the obvious reason for such a discrepancy in the line is the pitching matchup and I although I would agree that Milwaukee has the advantage here I will take a shot on the Cubs. The Cubbies have Ted Lilly on the hill tonight in what should be a fun series to watch and Lilly has been pitching quite well on the mound this year especially on the road where he has sported a 3.84 ERA in 72 2/3 innings and a 1.35 WHIP. The Cubs are not a great road team by any stretch as they are only 22-30 but they do have Alfonso Soriano back and they could win this game easily tonight. That task will depend on them getting to C.C. Sabathia who has been awesome since his acquisition from the Indians but although he has pitched great lately he does have in the back of his mind the debacle that he had when he took on the Cubs for the only time in his career where he lost the game 9-2 but was really beat up in the loss. I will take a shot with the Cubbies to show up here tonight and win.
Cincinnati +1.29 (3 Unit Play)
The Reds and Astros start a series that doesn't mean much and there may be players getting traded from both teams here but I like the Reds as the underdog here tonight. Johnny Cueto will take the mound for the Reds and lately he has been struggling but before the last couple of games he had found his groove again and he is still striking out batters. Cueto will be opposed by Roy Oswalt who has been battling injury issues pretty much all season and he will be held to 90 pitches in this game tonight and although his career numbers are completely lights out against the Reds he will not be able to stay longer than 5-6 innings in this one tonight. The Astros have been having trouble scoring runs at home and although Cincinnati comes in scuffling to I would rather have my money on Cincinnati in a close game than the Astros.
GAME OF THE MONTH
Boston -1 1/2 Runs +1.29 (5 Unit Play)
I very rarely use a 5* play and I hate to use it on a run line especially on a home team but I really like the Red Sox in this spot tonight and will look for them to win by 4-5 runs here tonight. The Red Sox are off of the ESPN Sunday Night game and were battling losing to the Yankees twice in a row as well as the Manny Ramirez rumors but they came through in flying colors last night. Today they will take on a team that just embarassed them last week in Los Angeles and very well may be meeting them in the playoffs and they have lost five straight games against them since dominating the Angels for years. The Red Sox have their best pitcher on the mound in Daisuke Matsuzaka and he has only faced the Angels once in his career which was last year's playoff game. Matsuzaka has been unbelievable this year posting a 2.63 ERA, 11-1 record and a 1.36 WHIP in 95 2/3 innings of work and I look for him to rise up to the occasion tonight on ESPN. The Angels are responding with perhaps their most disappointing starting pitcher in Jered Weaver who had to leave his last start due to some shoulder issues. I look for the Red Sox to win big this evening.
Wayne Root
Chairman - Blue Jays
Millionaire - Angels
Insiders Circle - Tigers
Billionaire - A's
Brian Graves Guaranteed Selections
San Diego/Arizona over 7.5 runs
I realize this game is in San Diego, but the fact that this total is only 7.5 is like handing money over. You have 2 struggling pitchers who between them have won only 1 game in last since the middle of May. Owings is a mess right now. Everything he throws over gets hammered and he has had problems throwing it over. Maddux will do his usual stuff and try to keep the ball away and hope the D-Backs try to pull everything. Unfortunately this team actually has fared very well against the future hall of famer and there offense has found it's groove again in the 2nd half so far. This is a rare NL game where you could see 2 or 3 hits from the pitchers as neither one of these guys has overpowering stuff and both pitchers can handle the bat. This number is a JOKE and needs to be HAMMERED!!!
O.C. Dooley Guaranteed Selections
TONIGHT'S "3 UNIT" BEST BET Reds +125 at Astros
This is one of those wagers where I feel the posted line actually helps make the pick. Since Cincinnati comes in having lost 5 of the past 7 games and got swept at home over the weekend where they were outscored by a whopping 23-3 combined margin, one would think they would be a much larger underdog especially since the Reds are a disastrous 1-18 when going up against tonight's starting pitcher. Even though Houston ace Roy Oswalt owns the Reds, he checks into this start with a personal below .500 overall record which in part is due to injury problems he has suffered all season. That latest injury (hip) just landed Oswalt on the disabled list, so I have to question just how healthy he really is. Cincinnati's ace all season has been Edinson Volquez who was leading the entire National League in ERA going into the All Star Break. But the grind of a long campaign has caught up with the Reds most effective hurler as Volquez threw way too many pitches for a second consecutive start on Saturday where he was bombed. I bring up Volquez because in my opinion Johnny Cueto's overall repotoire of pitches are just as good. While Volquez got off to a tremendous start, Cueto has only been average at best in his rookie campaign. But I have noticed that Cueto is starting to fool opposing batters by racking up 22 STRIKEOUT victims in the past 18 innings of work. I have found out that Cincinnati has done a very wise thing with one of their talented young hurlers by giving Cueto an extra day of REST. Speaking of rest, the Reds benched outfielder Jay Bruce yesterday as arguably the majors #1 prospect has been struggling along with the rest of the team lately. What excites me about Bruce is that he grew up right near Houston in the state of Texas so tonight is a "homecoming" of sorts where he will have plenty of family and friends in the stands cheering him on. Ken Griffey Jr. enters tonight riding a TEN game hitting streak and his batting average when playing AT Houston (.391) is rather large in his past six visits. Another reason why I like the visting Reds is that they have a "marginal" losing record just like the Astros. Houston this season just happens to be a horrible 5-16 when facing a "marginal" losing opponent who has won between 46-and-49% of their contests. Even though Cincinnati has been struggling at the plate, they are an excellent 11-4 this season following a 3-game stretch where the on-base percentage (.260 or worse) has been poor. Here is a near 70-PERCENT SYSTEM (32-15 past decade) which goes AGAINST home favorites like Houston who are off an upset DIVISIONAL win as an underdog of +130 or more. This system helps explain why Houston is in a classic "letdown" spot after winning 2 of 3 at contending Milwaukee during the weekend. Houston has won a pair of series since the All Star Break and both (Brewers and Cubs) have been against teams with winning records.
The Millionaires Club Guaranteed Selections
91% HIGH ROLLER BASEBALL WINNER
Milwaukee w/Sabathia -165
Marco D'Angelo
DET (-107) vs CLE
We cashed with Detroit yesterday and we are coming right back with them today. You see the Indians are in trouble they sold out unloading their franchise pitter CC Sabathia and did what most teams do when they are trying to convince their fans that they haven't given up on the season. The Indians went out and Won 7 of 8 after the trade. But I've seen it so many times reality finally sets in and the losing returns and the team the Fans and everyone involved realize that the Season is Over. The Indians have now lost 4 of their last 5 and are quickly sinking into the abyss. The Indians have struggled vs Lefties this year losing 66% of the time when they face a southpaw. Expect them to struggle again against Detroit starter Rogers. Note that over the last 2 years Rogers has faced the Indians 3 times and has given up a total of 4 earned runs in those 3 starts over 19+ innings of work. Also note that Cleveland is just 5-20 following a loss of 2 runs or less this season. They lost 4-2 yesterday. TAKE DETROIT as MARCO'S TEAM MISMATCH GAME OF THE WEEK and make them a DOUBLE DIME PL
Ben Burns
MLB 4* Toronto Blue Jays
MLB 4* Seattle Mariners
MLB 4* SD Padres
Seabass Monday Baseball
20 Col over
20 Seattle
20 NYM under
20 CWS under
30 Oak under
Jeff Benton
15 Dime- Rockies
5 Dime- White Sox
INDIAN COWBOY
Cleveland Indians +101 (POD)
Kenny Rogers pitched well on the road at Kansas City in his last start for just 4 hits and has won back to back ballgames but has been having trouble putting together back to back quality starts of late, he did help beat Cleveland in his last start at home with a 1.29 era, so Cleveland has a bit of a revenge today, do note that Cleveland lost yesterday 2-4 as Detroit won 4-6 for what its worth, Byrd comes off an incredible 1.69 era start on the road in which he won as a +175 dog, he is 2-2 with a 3.40 era at home which is a far outcry from his overall record of 4-10 with a 5.28 era. This simply just goes to show that he is far more capable of pitching well at home, he beat Detroit the first time at home and now is on a bounce-back after Detroit got their revenge in their last start, I just fear that Byrd might not have back to back quality starts in him here but at the same time there are a lot of trends working in Cleveland's favor with Byrd starting at home where he pitches considerably better, of course this team is on a bounce-back, Byrd himself is on a bounce-back against Detroit, Cleveland has their revenge against Rogers and challenging Rogers for back to back quality starts with Cleveland at home. Lean on the Indians here - besides over 62% favor the road favorite in Detroit here which makes me like the dog price with Cleveland more.
Angels/Red Sox Under 9
Weaver and Dice-K face off here, note that Weaver helped his tem win the last ballgame despite having a 6 era as he only lasted 3 innings and the Angles bullpen got it done, he faced Boston earlier this year and got rocked for 10 hits and 5 runs in 5 innings, he had pitched 5 straight quality starts before his 6 era against cleveland at home, he is 4-4 and 8-8 on the year, but 4-4 on the road with a 4.5 era, he has a bit of revenge today against Boston, but he is on the road again and Boston is still a bit peeved about only taking 1 of 3 from the Yankees at home, Dice-K hasn't faced the Angels this year but of course has pitched 5 straight quality starts and is 6-1 with a 3.02 era at home. If anything a lean on the under here, likely just staying away because I don't necessarily trust Weaver on the road, but of course, then again, he is on a bounce-back here and typically does well in that role - heck, last time he had a rough start of a 8.53 era at home against the Mets back on 6/16, he came back on 6/22 on the road at Philly for a 1.29 era start and a win.
research
Leap of faith here on the bounce-back with Weaver, but he has showed his worth on the bounce-back and I expect to pitch better than 3 inns than last time out as he faces Boston with massive revenge from shelling him last time in Fenway earlier this year.
Sports Pro Unlimited
5 unit Boston -1.5 +123
5 unit NYY over 8.5 -110 POD
5 unit TB +102
5 unit SEA +103
Erin Rynning
MLB Playmaker: Seattle
MLB Chicago/Minnesota Under 8.5
Fairway Jay
MLB 3* Seattle Mariners
The Experts Guaranteed Selections
ULTIMATE EXPERTS BASEBALL DIAMOND WINNER
Detroit w/Rogers -110