BEN BURNS
Twins (RL) @ Mariners (RL)
PICK: Mariners (RL)
The betting public will surely love the Twins in this matchup. I believe the Mariners offer solid value though, particularly when we can get quite a reasonable price on them at +1.5 runs. The Mariners got back on track yesterday with a convincing 8-4 victory. While hitting has been a problem for them most of the year, that hasn't been in recent weeks. In fact, yesterday's game marked the eighth time in their last nine games that they recorded double-digits in hits.
Batista gets the call for the Mariners and his numbers this season are admittedly pretty poor. However, a closer look shows that he's actually been pretty decent his last two trips to the mound, allowing two runs in six innings vs. Texas last time out and two runs in 5 1/3 innings vs. Toronto in his previous start. While the Mariners lost both those games, it's important to mention that both losses came by just a single run - a big part of the reason that the run-line is an attractive option here. Batista did get roughed up at the dome in Minnesota last season. However, he allowed two earned runs or less in all three of his previous career starts vs. the Twins (1.89 ERA in those three games!) and his teams (Toronto and Arizona) won two of those three contests.
Perkins gets the nod for the Twins and he hasn't been particularly special lately. Last time out, he allowed nine baserunners (7 hits and 2 walks) and four earned runs through six innings. The Twins won that game. However, again getting back to the point about value with the run-line, that victory came by just one run, as the Twins won 6-5. Prior to that, in his most recent road start, Perkins allowed eight hits and five runs through six innings, suffering a 5-1 loss. Note that the Twins have only won one of his last six starts by more than a run and that four of his last six starts were decided by just a single run.
The Mariners should have the advantage in the bullpen department, something many people often overlook. The Twins' relievers have been tough at home. However, they have an awful 6.08 ERA and 1.609 WHIP on the road. On the other hand, the Mariners' relievers have an excellent 2.89 ERA and 1.243 WHIP. The Mariners also have the "travel schedule" in their favor as they played here at Safeco yesterday, while the Twins had to make the 1500 mile trek from Minneapolis to the Pacific Northwest. Consider backing SEATTLE at +1.5 runs.
SportsKingz
MINNESOTA -130
MILWAUKEE -115
ANGELS R/L EV
COLORADO R/L -110
Matty O'Shea
CHC / HOU Under 10
The UNDER is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings between the Cubs and Astros, with more than nine runs scored just once in those games. The UNDER is also 13-3-1 in Houston starter Brian Moehler's last 17 starts on grass and 7-1 in Chicago starter Ryan Dempster's last eight starts at home. Both of these pitchers combined to give up just one run in a combined 15 innings between them in their last meetings, and I expect more of the same tonight. Bet the UNDER as my Double Dime NL Total Play O' the Week.
Charlies Sports
500*Pirates/Diamondbacks Under 8
30* Giants -125
20* Royals -105
20* Rays -130
10* Yankees -140
10* Mariners +105 (free play)
Michael Cannon
Milwaukee -120 at CINCINNATI
Take the Brewers for the road win over the Reds tonight.
Manny Parra will get the start and he’s had a fine season so far for the Brew Crew. The left-hander is 9-4 with a 3.93 ERA in 22 starts. He’s only 1-2 in his last three starts, but he should be able to get back on track facing the Reds tonight.
Bronson Arroyo will start for Cincinnati and he’s 9-8 on the year despite an unsightly 5.74 ERA.
The Brewers need to bounce back and need to do it quick if they want to stay within sight of the Cubs in the NL Central.
Take the Brewers as they grab the road win.
3♦ MILWAUKEE
JEFFERSONSPORTS
MLB EARLY RELEASE
CLEVELAND +120
Wunderdog
Cleveland at Tampa Bay
Pick: Cleveland +115
Something has to give in this one. The Rays have been lethal at home all season, but Cliff Lee has been lethal period. Lee has not produced back-to-back bad starts all season. He gave up six runs in his last start, and only three other times has he allowed four runs or more in a game this season. He has followed those three bad starts with a 3-0 mark and 2.04 ERA. On the season, Lee has won 87.5% of his decisions, so getting plus odds is too hard to ignore. Lee has allowed no runs in four road starts and two runs or less in eight of 12. When your 14-2, 12 games over .500, pitching for a team that is 34-60 otherwise, at plus odds, you have to see the value in this one. Cleveland gets the call here.
Tom Stryker
National League Super Play
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -120
Steven Budin
MONDAY'S PICK
25 DIME - KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit Play on Cincinnati Reds +119
The Brewers have lost 6 of their last 8 games and it will be no picnic in Cincy tonight against the red hot Arroyo. Arroyo is 35-14 against the money line in home games in the second half of the season since 1997 and 6-1 against the money line in his last 7 home starts. The Reds return home after a 6-game road trip tonight and we expect that to put get them back to their winning ways. Take the Reds showing extraordinary value in the home dog role.
GINA
Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels
Los Angeles Angels have won six of their last seven games at home and will send Joe Saunders to the hill. The lefty is 2-0 with a 3.26 ERA in his last three starts and the Angels have won Saunders' last four starts against the Orioles. Meanwhile, Baltimore is 1-4 in the last 5 meetings versus the Angels and has lost ten of the last 14 games played at Angel Stadium
Los Angeles Angels -210
Wunderdog
Game: Cleveland at Tampa Bay
Pick: 3 units on Cleveland +115
Something has to give in this one. The Rays have been lethal at home all season, but Cliff Lee has been lethal period. Lee has not produced back-to-back bad starts all season. He gave up six runs in his last start, and only three other times has he allowed four runs or more in a game this season. He has followed those three bad starts with a 3-0 mark and 2.04 ERA. On the season, Lee has won 87.5% of his decisions, so getting plus odds is too hard to ignore. Lee has allowed no runs in four road starts and two runs or less in eight of 12. When your 14-2, 12 games over .500, pitching for a team that is 34-60 otherwise, at plus odds, you have to see the value in this one. Cleveland gets the call here.
Game: Boston at Kansas City
Pick: 3 units on Kansas City -105
The A’s are were on a 2-15 run when they were swept by the BoSox this weekend. Any team playing that bad is bound to make anyone look good. They also put the broom on Seattle - another team playing about as bad as it gets. Those two series sandwich a 1-8 run and now the Sox turn to the road where they have not fared well all season. Clay Bucholz looked like he was going to make a huge impact for the Sox after pitching a no-hitter last September and baffling AL hitters in his four starts. This season has been completely lost. He started poorly and has not recovered, and it has to be in his head now. He is pitching to a nearly six ERA - something he has never faced in his life. The Royals send Gil Meche to the mound who is earning the big salary the Royals spent especially lately, posting a 1.33 ERA in his last three. We'll back the Royals at home in this one.
Game: Minnesota at Seattle
Pick: 3 units on Minnesota -120
No one would believe that the Twins would be sitting in first place at this stage of the season after Santana departed for the Mets and Liriano sat out most of this season with recurring injuries, but here they are on top. The Twins are an amazing 30-9 outside a five game losing streak and are playing as well as anyone. The Mariners made a solid run last year, added Eric Bedard to put them over the top and suddenly they are the worst team in the AL. The losing on the road has been continuous and has now extended to home where they have dropped seven of eight. The Mariners are also 1-6 in Miguel Batista's last 22 starts, so the answer doesn't lie with a pitcher that has pitched to a 6.43 ERA on the season especially against a hot Twins’ team. The Twins take the opener
LT Profits
Cleveland Indians +115
With all due respect to Matt Garza of the Tampa Bay Rays, we simply cannot pass up Cliff Lee of the Cleveland Indians as an underdog in this spot.
Lee is the current favorite to win the American League Cy Young Award, sitting at 14-2 with a 2.58 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 146.2 innings. He tossed six scoreless innings while allowing only five hits in his first start vs. Tampa Bay this year, and he is facing a Rays lineup here that is batting a woeful .210 vs. left-handed pitching the last 10 games.
Now granted Garza has allowed three earned runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts. However, it should be pointed out that the two non-quality efforts both came within his last four starts, suggesting that he is starting to wear down a bit. Even more importantly, the worst of those efforts came vs. these Indians in Cleveland, where he was torched for seven earned runs and 11 hits in just five innings.
While we do expect an improved effort from Garza at home tonight, we will still go with the bona fide Cy Young favorite as a dog.
Pick: Indians +115
Boston Red Sox -110
Now, we concede that the Kansas City Royals have the edge in starting pitching over the Boston Red Sox tonight, but face it, this is still the Red Sox vs. the Royals and we feel compelled to play Boston at this seemingly bargain price.
Besides, Gil Meche has been somewhat of a disappointment for Kansas City, sitting at just 9-9 with a 4.16 ERA. He has just 106 strikeouts in 140.2 innings while at the same time being a fly ball pitcher, a dangerous combination vs. a powerful Red Sox lineup. Also, do not forget that the Royals have not had much of a home field advantage, going just 26-30 in their own stadium, so Red Sox Nation should be well represented in the stands.
Now Clay Buchholz has not shown much this season for Boston, but remember he is still the same pitcher that tossed a no-hitter last year, so it is not as if he has no ability. Also, the Royals are batting just .244 vs. right-handed pitching the last 10 games as opposed to a whopping .344 vs. lefties, and the Kansas City lineup has never faced Buchholz before.
Aside from the starters, the Red Sox are better in every other phase of the game and they get the call at this cheap number.
Pick: Red Sox -110
Tony Karpinski
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Kansas City Royals
Kansas City has won 6 of their last 7 games and they are 5-0 in the last 5 starts made by Gil Meche. The Royals are 6-2 their last 8 home games vs. the Red Sox. Boston is 5-11 their last 16 games when playing Game 1 of a series and they are 1-7 in the last 8 road starts made by Clay Buchholz. The Red Sox are 0-4 with Buchholz as road favorites and they are 4-8 their last 12 games vs. righty starters. The RedSox struggle on the road and I expect the Royals to come up big at home. Play on the KC ROYALS
John Ryan
Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays
Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 40-3 making 34.5 units for an incredible 93% since 1997. Play on all favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 that is a below average hitting team batting <=.265 and is now facing a good AL starting pitcher sporting an ERA <=4.20 and in the second half of the season. This is a rare system that occurs an average of about 4 times per season. This system is a perfect 2-0 this season and when combined with the AiS grading makes for an exceptional opportunity. The fact that the line is high prohibits the grading from exceeding a 5* amount. Here is a second system that has gone 50-11 making 33.6 units since 1997. Play against all dogs with a money line of +100 or higher that is a very bad AL offensive team scoring <=4.2 runs/game and is facing a team with a very good bullpen sporting an ERA<=3.33 and with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start. Oakland is in a very bad spot noting they are 3-17 (-16.3 Units) against the money line versus good fielding teams that are averaging <=0.6 errors/game in the second half of the season this season. Halladay must be boxed on this play as well.