Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
ARIZONA/ Pittsburgh Over 8.5
The Over is 39-16-4 in Pirates last 59 road games vs. a right-handed starter and 16-5-3 in Pirates last 24 games as a road underdog of +201 or greater, while the Over is 7-1 in Diamondbacks last 8 games as a favorite and 14-6 in Diamondbacks last 20 overall. Chase Field is ranked 9th in the league in OPS (.762) and 8th in the league in scoring (9.8 rpg). The Arizona offense does come in scoring just 3.4 rpg in their last 7, but all were on the road and now they are back home where they are hitting .275 and scoring 5.1 rpg on the year. Yoslan Herrera has just 4 starts on the year, but all 4 have really been bad as he is 1-1 with a 9.00 ERA, with those 4 starts averaging 12.8 rpg. Yoslan has 1 road start on the year and he allowed 7 ER on 8 hits in just 1.2 innings of work. I easily see the D-backs getting 5 or more runs off of him before turning the ball over to a pen that owns a 5.23 ERA on the road this year. The pirat offense is good on the road as they score 5.1 rpg away from home, plus they also score 4.9 rpg vs righty starters. Danny Haren has been excellent for the D-Backs this year as he has a 2.62 ERA overall and a 2.20 ERA at home, but teams are still scoring 3.4 rpg in his starts overall and 3.5 rpg in his night starts. I feel that 3 runs is all I'll need from the Pirates as the D-Backs will be good for 6-8 runs. Pirate road games average 11.4 rpg on the year and i see no reason why these teams can't score that much in this one.
3 UNIT PLAY
COLORADO RL (+100) OVER Washington
The Rockies have really owned the Nats at Coors of late as they have won the last 7 ganes played here and they have outscored them by 3.7 rpg in the process, with all but 1 of those games being decided by 3 or more runs. Colroad has really been of fire at home lately as they have gone 11-2 in their last 13 home games and have outscored opponents by 2.9 rpg in the 13 games, including outscoring them by 4.5 rpg in those last 11 home wins. The Rockies offense had been scoring less than 5 rpg ay home for much of the early part of the year, but this team is now at 5.6 rpg at home thanks to the fact that they have put 6.8 rpg in their board in their last 27 at home. Tim Redding has the task of slowing down this offensive juggernaut and the way he has pitched lately it won't be easy. At one point this year the Nats were 14-3 in Tim's starts, with him going 6-3, but in his last 6 starts he is 1-3 with a 5.18 ERA, while the Nats are just 1-5 in those last 6 starts. Aaron cook has not had those same problems as he has been consistent all year long. Aaron is 14-6 with a 3.53 ERA overall, including 6-3 with a 3.43 ERA at home. The Rockies are 15-8 in his starts and have outscored opponents by 3.5 rpg in the 15 wins, including outscoring opponents by 4 rpg in his 7 team home wins. The Nats offense has come alive a bit in their last 5 games ( 5.6 rpg, all at home), but this team has still has scored just 3.2 rpg in their last 12 games and just 1.5 rpg in their last 6 games away from home. Washington has been out scored by 2.8 rpg in their last 20 road losses and 3.4 rpg in thier last 35 losses overall. Colorado is making thier move in the West and they will not let this sorry Nats squad stand in their way. Colorado wins big.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Cleveland/ Tampa Bay Under 7.5
The Under is 13-3-1 in Indians last 17 on field turf and 5-1 in Lees last 6 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150, while the Under is 14-3 in Rays last 17 home games vs. a left-handed starter and 10-1 in Garzas last 11 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game, plus the Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings in Tampa Bay. Cliff Lee has had a good year for the Tribe this year with a 2.58 ERA overall, including a 2.69 ERA on the road. Cliff has also pitched well vs the Rays in the past as he owns a 2.29 ERA vs them in his career, including a 1.60 ERA in his last 6 starts and in those last 4 starts vs them just 5 rpg have been scored. Matt Garza has been been on a roll of late as he owns a 1.66 ERA in his last 3 starts, with thoise games averaging just 6.3 rpg, plus he has a nice 2.10 ERA at home, with those home starts averaging 7.5 rpg. The Cleveland offense has really struggled in dome games this year, as they are averaging just 2.8 rpg and hitting just .211 inside a dome on the year. The Rays have struggled vs lefty starters on the year as they are hittiing just .242 and scoring 3.8 rpg vs them on the year. These are two bad scoring situations for these teams and with two vsry good starters on the mound, I don't see how this game can put 8 or more runs on the board. Should be about 5 runs tops scored in this one.
Minnesota -118 over SEATTLE
The Twins are 23-7 in their last 30 games as a favorite and 16-6 in their last 22 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game, while the Mariners are 3-12 in their last 15 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5 and 0-8 in Batistas last 8 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. I have gone against Miguel Batista alot this year and it has been very good for me. Miguel is just 3-9 as a starter this year with a 6.67 ERA overall, including a 2-4 mark with a 9.45 ERA in his home starts, plus he is 0-1 with an 8.10 ERA in his last 3 starts overall. Miguel really allows too many baserunners as he has a 1.94 WHIP in his starts overall, including a 2.25 WHIP in his home starts. Miguel must now take on a Minny offense that comes in averaging 5.8 rpg in their last 9 games and they score 5.4 rpg at night and they hit .276 and score 4.9 rpg vs righties. Minnesota has really had success in Seattle this year going 5-1, while scoring 7 rpg and allowing 3.1 rpg in the 6 games. Glen Perkins has come on have a really nice year for the Twins, as he is 8-2 with a 4.20 ERA overall, including a 3-1 with a 4.17 ERA on the road. The Seattle offense has come alive abit lately as they have scored 6 rpg in their last 7 games, but 4 of those games were in Texas and now they are back home where they have scored just 3.8 rpg, including just 3 rpg in their last 7 at home. This game should be rated higher, but one aspect scores me just a little and that is the fact that the Twins are not in an Ideal spot after coming off 10 straight division games and must now face a lowly Mariners squad. Minnesota could come out a bit flat, but with Migual on the mound for the M's I don't expect a flat game from them. Minnesota is hot and they shouldn't struggle that much in this series, starting with tonight.
1 UNIT PLAY
NY Yanks/ Texas Over 9.5
The Over is 7-1 in Yankees last 8 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5 and 7-1 in Yankees last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter, while the Over is 13-3 in Rangers last 16 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5 and Over is 14-2-1 in Padillas last 17 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. The Yankees offense has been hot of late scoring 6.9 rpg in their last 13 games, including 7.3 rpg in their last 7 games. Those last 13 games have averaged 11.9 rpg. The Yanks also average 5 rpg vs righties and 4.9 rpg at night. Texas also brings a hot offense into this game as they have hit .311 and scored 7.5 rpg in their last 11 games, plus the Rangers score 6.9 rpg for Vicente in his home starts. Texas scores 6.6 rpg at home and 6.1 rpg vs righty starters. Rangers Ballpark is ranked 1st on OPS and 1st in scoring (12.4 rpg) and it has a scoring average of 13.3 rpg in the last 22 games played there. Joba has been awesome in his last 3 starts with an 0.95 ERA, but I still feel that this Texas offense can get some runs off of him. Vicente Padilla has a decent 3.98 ERA at home, but his home starts have been high scoring at 13.1 rpg. Vicente's overall starts have averaged 11.7 rpg , while his night starts have averaged 12.3 rpg. Both teams have been scoring tons of runs and they are playing in the best hitting park in the league and that should translate into a solid win on the Over.
AAA
Double-Dime Bet
CLEVELAND INDIANS +118
Cliff Lee has had great success verses this Ray Squad. He has compiled a 1.57 ERA to win his last three outings against the Rays, including a six inning stint during a 5-0 Cleveland home win on July 11. Garza has not done well verses the Indians, going 0-2 with a 5.85 ERA in four career starts. On July 12 at Cleveland, he gave up seven earned runs and 11 hits, both season highs, in five innings of an 8-4 loss. Facing the lefty, puts Tampa Bay in their worst hitting posture, batting 20 points less this year and just .210 over the last 10 played. As well as the Rays are performing recently, they are over valued here and I will grab the nice odds..
Double-Dime Bet
CHICAGO CUBS -1½ RL
The Cubs Pitcher has been marvalous at home this year and is 10-1 with a 2.72 ERA in 13 home starts. He has thrown very well his last 2 outings on the road as well and has allowed just 2 earned runs over the last 21 innings. He is throwing well. The Cubs are hitting the ball right now very well, so Dempy should get nice run support. Chicago is an amazing 41-15 here at Wrigley and Houston is not so spiffy as travelers. Therefore, I am laying the 1.5 Runs again for this one.
Joseph D'Amico
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Under
Both teams are playing well winning 7 of each of their last 10 games. Both the Cub's and the Astro's have been doing it with pitching. Both teams combined have 99 OVER's this season with 113 UNDER"s. Chicago has right-handed ace Dempster on the mound today. He is 10-1 at home this season with a 2.72 ERA. He seems to be getting better with each outing as he is 2-0 with a 0.86 ERA in his last three starts. This season,Dempster is 1-1 in 14.0 innings pitched with an ERA of 2.57 against the Astro's. For Houston, right-hander Moehler is pitching today. He is very impressive this season. On the road this year he is 2-2 with a 4.63 ERA. Over his last three starts he is 1-0 with an ERA of 4.00. Moehler has pitched well against the Cub's this season at 0-1 with an ERA of 3.00 in 12.0 innnings pitched. Dempsters numbers speak for themselves but Moehler's are equally imprsseive. In his 15 overall starts this season,he has 2 OVER's and 12 UNDER's. As a team Houston on the road has 19 OVER's and 35 UNDER's this year. take the UNDER and make your money.
Brandon Lang
15 Dime - Brewers
5 Dime - Twins
5 Dime - Orioles
Chris James
Minnesota/Seattle Over 9
Tonight is the first game of the series between the Minnesota Twins and the Seattle Mariners and the Twins are the sole owners of first-place in the AL Central! They look to hold atop the Central division tonight by defeating the lowly Mariners who are coming off a win against Baltimore yesterday. The Twins are sending Glen Perkins to the mound who is 8-3 on the year with a 4.2 ERA. Perkins has been an Over pitcher all year as the over is 5-1 in his last 6 starts as a favorite. The over is also 4-1 in Perkins last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Mariners should have no problems putting up runs against Perkins as they are hitting lefty's pretty well this season. Perkins is allowing 12 hits/walks per nine innings pitched and the Twins available bullpen have an ERA of 3.22. The Twins have seen 9 of their last 11 games go Over against teams from the AL West. Look for Seattle to put up some runs tonight and do their part in putting this game Over the Total. The Mariners counter with Miguel Batista who is 4-11 on the year with a 6.43 ERA and of the main reasons why the Over looks so good tonight! In his last 3 starts he has an ERA of 8.1 and a WHIP of 1.8. He is allowing 16.2 hits/walks per nine innings pitched which means the Twins will have no shortage of base runners tonight. The Over has cashed 9 out of Batista's last 12 starts and 5 out of his last 6 starts. The Twins are hitting about .270 off of right-handers this year and should have no problem improving on that average tonight! The Over is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings in Seattle and is 16-5-1 in the last 22 meetings overall. This line of 9 seems very low for these two pitchers and it should be no problem hitting that mark tonight! Chris James Free Play Selection is on the Twins/Mariners Over.
Indiancowboy
Indians +113 (POD)
TB won 6-5 yesterday and Cleveland lost 2-6 at Minny, Cliff Lee had a 10.8 era last time out and that is his worst performance of the year, despite that performance his era is still 2.69 and he is 8-2 on the road and 14-2 with a 2.58 era for the season, he went 6 inns and didn't yield a run to TB last time at home, Garza had a great performance his last time out but struggles to put back to back quality starts together, Cle had roughed him up before 12.6 era on the road, so, Ginter looks to bounce-back here against the Indians, at the same time so does Lee, but Ginter has trouble with back to back starts, regardless, the point of taking Lee on a bounce-back is nice and one gets him at a dog price here. I might just close my eyes and do it simply because it is Lee and the Indians did hit Garza for 11 hits in 5 innings, not to mention, I don't think Garza has back to back quality performances in him and the Indians off a loss.
Garza is 1-8 when facing a team with a losing record meaning he struggles against the weaker teams in the league and Lee is 9-3 in his last 12 road starts, I'll take my chances with Lee on the bounce-back as well as the Indians on a bounce-back.
Orioles/Angels Over 9
Dennis Sarfate had a 6.75 era in his first start on the road at New York lasting 4 inns, tough back to back games for the young kid facing the Yankees on the road followed by the Angels on the road, Saunders has pitched 7 straight quality starts, as he is 2-0 over his last 3 starts, and he has defeated Baltimore both times this year 6-5, I favor the run-line here, but remember it will be tough for any pitcher to beat a team 3 times in a row and Baltimore has gotten close twice now, I wouldn't be surprised to see this game go over though as Baltimore is likely to be an active dog.
Long story short here, Baltimore has gotten close twice now in defeating Saunders as they have lost 5-6 and 5-6, given that and the fact Sarfate is a young kid on the road at L.A. who is a solid contact hitting team, the over seems probable here, the over is 11-1 when the Orioles are dogs by this margin meaning they show up well at least on offense when they are such big dogs and the over is 4-0 in Saunders last 4 starts against the Orioles.
Royals -104
Boston is desperately hoping that Bucc bounces-back as he is 0-4 with a 7.98 era on the road, he has not won a game since May 2nd, he has had 6 straight non-quality starts, Meche is 3-0 over his last 5 starts, his team has won the last 6 of 7 of his starts, he had a 2.57 era against Boston last time losing 1-2 which was on the road and last year he had a 1.23 era as his team won 7-1 and that was at home. More than 60% favor Boston here and Meche has been pitching awfully well while Bucc continues to struggle, I'll take the better pitcher at home at this point, besides the KC offense put up 14 runs yesterday and began to show some life so it shows they can clearly hit lack of quality pitches when need be. It does seem that Bucc is getting more and more of his endurance back but I think he is 1 game away still from being back full strength.
ROBERT FERRINGO
3-Unit Play. Take #951 Milwaukee (-125) over Cincinnati
Wow. A couple tough outings and everyone is jumping off the Manny Parra Train. Not I. The Brewers are 9-1 in their last 10 road games and the Reds are 1-9 in their last 10 games overall. Cincy looked a bit shell-shocked over the weekend after losing Ken Griffey Jr. I'm going to play on that. I have no faith in Bronson Arroyo and I think the Brewers - suddenly five games back - play with some urgency today.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #971 Minnesota (-125) over Seattle
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.0 Minnesota at Seattle
Seattle hits lefties and Miguel Batista gets hit by everyone. Sounds like a solid 'over' to me. The Twins are twice the team that the Mariners are and they rested several of their key bats yesterday. As a result, I don't expect the travel to be as big of an issue since they won yesterday with their bench. Speed doesn't take a day off. And the Twins should run all over the M's. Kind of a theme of the day - great odds on what is clearly the better team.
2-Unit Play. Take #964 Tampa Bay (-125) over Cleveland
The Rays are dominating at home and playing against a team that is pretty poor on the road. I don't see the Rays managing another sweep in this series, but I do think they take two of three, including this one. Tampa is 40-11 in its last 51 home games. If I see them posted under -150 then it should be considered almost a blind play. This one is not. Garza has had some success against the Tribe when he was with Minnesota and the Rays are 9-3 at home against left-handed starters. This will be another low-scoring affair and Tampa will just keep finding ways to get W's.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #967 Boston (-110) over Kansas City
Wow. I know that Clay Buchholz has been a pinata, but these are still pretty solid odds on the Red Sox here. Kansas City kind of peaked yesterday by thrashing the White Sox. It was an emotional game and they had to kind of mail in the last half of it because it was a blowout. I think they lose a bit of their edge. Also, the Royals have been crushing lefties lately but haven't done much against right-handed pitchers. Gil Meche is 3-13 against the A.L. East and the Royals are 20-50 in Monday games. That's a letdown team.
AntonWins
Washington +200 3 units
Computer Crushers
5000 UNIT BASEBALL COMPUTER CRUSHER WINNER
Cleveland w/Lee +120 7:10 EST
Kevin Francis
5000* DIAMOND DOMINATOR BASEBALL WINNER
Tampa Bay w/Garza -125 7:10 EST
William Kidd
QUADRUPLE DIME BASEBALL CRUSHER
Milwaukee w/Parra -115
Investment Playmakers
20* Milwaukee Brewers -115
The Experts
ULTIMATE EXPERTS BASEBALL DIAMOND WINNER
NY Yankees w/Chambrlain -155
Fairway Jay
5* Twins/Mariners Over 9
Winners Inc.
5000* BASEBALL CRUSHER WINNER
Cleveland w/Lee +120