Ben Burns Guaranteed Pick
"BLUE CHIP" Total!
Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets
Prediction: Under
I'm expecting the pitchers to steal the spotlight in this afternoon's Mets/Pirates game. While he hasn't been going too deep into ball games, Pedro Martinez has quietly been pitching quite well recently. He hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in any of his last four starts, allowing seven runs. During that 4-game stretch, he has a 3.05 ERA, including a stellar 2.94 mark (1.174 WHIP) his last three starts. Martinez has made four home starts on the season and all four of them fell below the total. In fact, dating back to May of 2006, we find the UNDER at a highly profitable 11-0-1 his last 12 starts here. Note that Pedro has been much better in three daytime starts (3.00 ERA) than he has been in his eight evening starts. This afternoon, he'll face a Pirates lineup which isn't hitting nearly as well since getting rid of the likes of Jason Bay and Xavier Nady. Indeed, the Pirates have managed a mere 10 runs their past five games and they didn't score more than three runs in any of those games. Not surprisingly, the UNDER was a perfect 5-0 in those games. Additionally, note that Pedro has always pitched well vs. the Pirates, going 9-4 with a 2.97 ERA. The Pirates haven't seen him since 2006 either, which figures to work to Pedro's advantage. Likewise, the Mets haven't seen Zach Duke since 2006. The last time that he faced them, he tossed eight shutout innings en route to a 3-0 Pittsburgh victory. Including that gem, in three career starts vs. the Mets, Duke has gone 2-0 with an outstanding 1.77 ERA and a 1.033 WHIP. It's true that Duke has been having a disappointing season. However, he's more talented than his record indicates and he showed it last time out. In that start, he allowed just four hits and two runs through seven complete innings vs. Arizona, striking out six while walking just one. He didn't get any run support though and the Pirates lost by a score of 3-1. Look for Duke to build off that effort, continuing his success vs. the Mets, as the final combined score stays beneath the generous number and the UNDER improves to 9-3 the last dozen times that the Mets faced a southpaw starter. *Blue Chip
Jim Feist
PHI Phillies and LA Dodgers
Take Under
Dodger stadium is a terrific pitcher's park, one with a huge outfield. The Dodgers have an improved offense with Manny Ramirez, but oddsmakers have over-adjusted, as LA is still 12-4 under the total the last 16 games. Starter Derek Lowe and his sinker struggle on the road, but he has a 2.72 ERA at home. Philadelphia starter Kyle Kendrick has an ERA close to 5 at home, but 3.90 on the road. The Phillies are on a 5-1-1 under the total run. Play the Phillies/Dodgers under the total!
Dave Cokin
PHI Phillies and LA Dodgers
Take PHI Phillies
The Dodgers are back home following a couple of walk-off losses to the Giants. Derek Lowe is off his shortest and least effective stint all season. The Phillies have been mired in an offensive slump, but showed signs of life in winning the last two against the Pirates. Kyle Kendrick usually brings out the best in the Phils offense for some reason, and I'm going to back the road underdogs in this contest.
Bob Harvey
Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5
It’s that time of the year that teams with something on the line, like Milwaukee, get the job done against the bottom feeders of the league. The Brewers who lead the Wild Card standings in the National League go for their sixth-straight win as they take on the Nationals in the finale of a four-game series. The Brew Crew will send Dave Bush to the hill in their bid for a sweep of the Nats. Bush is 6-9 with a 4.50 ERA on the year and is 2-2 with a 3.57 ERA in his last six starts. The veteran right-hander is also 2-2 with a 3.47 ERA in four lifetime games against the Nationals and has won two straight starts against them. The Nationals send Garrett Mock to the mound in the series finale. Mock is 0-2 this season with an ERA of just under 5.00. He’s making his first start for the Nationals since June 21st. Granted the Brewers RL record is just 25-35 at home, two of those run line victories have come this weekend against Washington. I’m not crazy about the high number with Milwaukee on the money-line, but I’ll take this very reasonable price on the RL.
Karl Garrett
NY Yankees +115 at MINNESOTA
Tonight I like the struggling Yankees to get back on track against a Minnesota team they have dominated of late.
New York comes to town having lost their last 3, but they did recently sweep 3 games from the Twins in the Bronx, and are 5-2 versus Minnesota this year.
Sidney Ponson has been able to go 1-0 over his last 2 starts, allowing only 3 runs in his last 13 innings, as Ponson is now 7-2 for the year. Included is a 2-0 mark against the Twins this season, with 5 runs allowed in 20 innings of work.
Minnesota starter Glen Perkins has hit hard times, as the southpaw has allowed 14 runs over his last 18 innings, and is just 1-1 in that span. Against the Yanks, Perkins is 0-2 for the season, with 10 runs allowed in 10 innings of work.
The G-Man expects the Yankees to handle the Twins, and Perkins one more time.
3♦ NY YANKEES
Chris Jordan
N.Y. Yankees +115 at MINNESOTA
The Bombers need to act now, after getting swept in Anaheim, as the Devil Rays gained needed ground on both New York and the defending champs while spending time in the Emerald City with the Mariners. Sidney Ponson gets the nod for this visit to the Metrodome, where he tossed a complete game victory back in May, giving up six hits, one earned run and striking out five on May 21.
This will mark the fourth time he’s faced the Twins this year, and he’s 2-0 already. I used to despise this guy as much as I did Jeff Weaver, but I’ll be honest, after watching him perform in person back on July 21 – against this same team – I’ve become a believer that he is a viable commodity in this rotation.
Now 7-2 on the season, he’s toed the slab for the pinstripes 16 times this season and has produced seven quality starts – almost half his starts. In the games he needed one inning or less to get to the minimum six innings to qualify for a quality start, there were four more in which he allowed three or less earned runs.
Bottom line here is the Yanks are the value play in this one, and we’re taking the money one day after the Twins got bumped off by the hapless Royals.
2♦ YANKEES
Bobby Maxwell
N.Y. Yankees at MINNESOTA -120
The Yankees have won five of seven this season from the Twins and took two of four in Minnesota in late May. But suddenly the Yankees have been looking very beatable and on this road trip they are 2-5 as they head to the Metrodome.
We like this lefty the Twins are throwing on the mound today in Glen Perkins (8-3, 4.38 ERA). He's 5-2 at home this season and the Twins are 7-3 in his last 10 outings and even though he's been roughed up a bit in his last three starts, expect him to come out and throw a strong game at the Yankees.
The resurgent Sidney Ponson (7-2, 4.23) goes for the Yankees but this guy has been the beneficiary of a lot of runs by his offense since joining the Bronx Bombers, it really hasn't been his dominant pitching. In his last two road starts he's allowed 10 runs on 16 hits in 10.1 innings. He faced these Twins back on July 21 and gave up three runs on nine hits in 5.2 innings of a 12-4 win - the offense doing his work for him.
We like Minnesota in this one as the Twins are 35-16 in their last 51 home games and 20-6 the last 26 games they've been favored. Let's play them to get the job done tonight.
2♦ MINNESOTA
Gold Medal Club
Philadelphia @ LA.Dodgers
PLAY ON PHILADELPHIA +
We take note that Philadelphia is 10-4 as road dogs in this price range.Kendrick is 6-2 in road starts this season and in great current form, taking a 1.45 era in his last 3 starts into tonights contest.Lowe has been solid at home this season, but was shelled in St.Louis in his last outing, the 147 innings pitched this season maybe catching up with him.
Vegas Experts
Cincinnati Bengals at Green Bay Packers
These teams met two years ago in Preseason play and combined for 65 points, an astounding number for August. That game was in Cincinnati, but on the road is where Bengals coach Marvin Lewis really cashes in on the Over flying past the total in 8 of 9 preseason games. You know Green Bay is going to want to score in an effort to prove they "never" needed Brett Favre.
Play on: Over
Tony Weston
Tonight, you're going to have a dogfight in Chicago, but go with the White Sox over the Red Sox.
The teams come into this, Game 4 of this series, with the White Sox holding a 2-1 advantage over the Red Sox. After splitting games Friday and Saturday Chicago got over on Boston yesterday with a strong 6-5 win.That win now puts the White Sox at 4-2 their last six games and gives them a 6-2 mark their last eight games at home.The Red Sox, on the other hand, are only 3-3 their last six games and are only 8-13 their last 21 games away from Fenway Park.Boston will continue its road struggles and the White Sox will record another victory over the visitors. Go with Chicago at home tonight.
3♦ WHITE SOX
Dennis Macklin
San Francisco Giants at Houston Astros
Both pitchers have been ripped of late, Sanchez 7.96 in L6, Backe 8.44 in L4. That said, Backe has been somewhat of hometown specialist throughout his career with a career ERA at home a full one-and-a-half better at the Juice. The Astros have won four straight and are 11-2 in L13. The Giants are off two walk off wins against hated Dodgers plus travel and will likely be spent here.
Play on: Houston
Nostradamus
Wash/Minn Over 8
Florida -130
SF/Houst Over 9.5
Bost/ Chic Over 8.5
Yanks/Minn Under 9.5
Cinn/GB Over 36
Tom Freese
Boston at Chicago
Boston is 36-16-6 UNDER their last 58 games when playing Game 4 of a series. The Red Sox are 10-4-1 UNDER after allowing 5 or more runs in their last game and they are 18-8-3 UNDER after scoring 5 or more runs in their last game. Josh Beckett is 12-5-1 UNDER his last 18 road starts vs. winning teams. Chicago is 11-1 UNDER their last 12 games vs. AL East teams and they are 8-3 UNDER their last 11 home games vs. winning teams. The White Sox are 5-0 UNDER in the last 5 home starts made by John Danks. Both Beckett and Danks are in excellent KW form with a 5 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio in their last 3 starts. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Craig Trapp
Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5
Today take MIL run line over WASH. MIL is going for a sweep in the early game today. Ryan Braun is out for todays game but look for MIL to still come out swinging. To secure a four-game sweep, Milwaukee hands the ball to Dave Bush (6-9, 4.50 ERA), who is 2-2 with a 3.57 ERA in six starts since winning back-to-back outings June 19 and 24. He turned in a strong performance on Tuesday, yielding just one run and three hits, while fanning seven over seven innings of an 8-1 victory in Cincinnati! Look for more of the same today. SCORE MIL 5 - WASH 2 Dont miss out on premium 3 star pick today. LAST 2 days have been strong 6-1!!
FRANK ROSENTHAL
MLB
904 BREWERS-220 SB
OVER 8 SB+
906 FISH-130 SB
OVER 9.5 SB
907 SF OVER 9 -120 SB
909 PHILLY UNDER 8 SB
911 COOKIES OVER 9.5 SB
917 YANKS+110 SB
NFL PRESEASON - WEEK 1
274 PACKERS-3 SB
OVER 36 SB