SPORTS ADVISORS
NFL Preseason
Cleveland (0-1 SU and ATS) at N.Y. Giants (0-1 SU, 0-0-1 ATS)
The Super Bowl champion Giants take the field in front of their home fans at Giants Stadium in New Jersey when they host the Browns in this nationally televised preseason contest.
New York opened the preseason with a 13-10 loss in Detroit back on Aug. 7, pushing as a three-point ‘dog. Super Bowl MVP Eli Manning completed just two passes in six attempts for 19 yards while his backups performed better with David Carr going 10-for-13 for 104 yards and a touchdown and Anthony Wright completing 9-of-13 for 116 yards.
Cleveland also opened the exhibition campaign on Aug. 7, falling 24-20 to the Jets as a five-point home favorite. The Browns put up 14 points in the first half and starting QB Derek Anderson finished 4-of-5 for 20 yards and a touchdown in limited action. Brady Quinn followed Anderson and was an impressive 13-of-17 for 133 yards with an INT and Ken Dorsey finished up with 139 passing yards and two INTs.
Expect to see a little more from Manning and the starters tonight as coach Tom Coughlin has said they will get about 25 snaps or go into the second quarter. Wright will follow Manning with rookie Andre Woodson and Carr splitting time in the second half.
Browns’ coach Romeo Crennel said his starters will go into the second quarter tonight and has quieted any concerns about any quarterback controversy, giving Anderson all the snaps with the first unit the entire preseason. Quinn will come in midway through the second quarter and take it to the fourth quarter, with Dorsey mopping up from there.
New York is 4-2 SU and ATS in true home games at Giants Stadium (the annual game against Jets it is considered a neutral-site contest) and 9-7-1 SU and ATS in preseason games overall since Coughlin took over in 2004. The Giants have also cashed in three straight as a preseason chalk.
The Browns are 8-5 SU and 9-4 ATS since Crennel took over in 2005, including 5-1 SU and ATS on the road and 7-1 ATS as an underdog. Also, going back to 2004, the Browns are 4-0 ATS in the preseason following a straight-up defeat.
The last time these two teams met in the exhibition campaign was 2005 when Cleveland scored a 17-14 win at home as a three-point underdog.
The over is 3-1 in the Giants’ last four true home exhibition games but the under is 9-4 overall in the last three-plus preseasons for New York. For the Browns, the under is 5-1 in their last six preseason road games and 8-5 in their last three Augusts overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
L.A. Angels (76-46) at Tampa Bay (75-48)
The top two teams in the American League square off in the opener of a three-game series at Tropicana Field as the Angels send Jon Garland (11-7, 4.26 ERA) to the mound to face the Rays’ Andy Sonnanstine (12-6, 4.35).
Los Angeles comes into this one with the best road record in baseball at 39-23 despite losing in Cleveland 4-3 on Sunday. The Angels have won six of their last nine overall and 10 of their last 15 on the highway.
Tampa Bay wrapped up a 10-game road trip with Sunday’s 7-4 win at Texas, improving to 14-4 in their last 18 games. Now the Rays return to Tropicana Field, where they have won 41 of their last 51 games. They’re also 7-2 in their last nine games against the A.L. West.
The Rays lead the season series 4-2, including sweeping three straight from the Angels at Tropicana Field in early May. Tampa has gone 6-3 against Los Angeles in Florida the last three seasons, but the Angels sill have a commanding 48-20 lead in the last 68 clashes between these squads.
The Angels have won four of Garland’s last five outings, including two straight on the road where the right-hander is 7-2 with a 4.57 ERA 10 starts. He gave up three runs in seven innings of a 7-3 home win over the Mariners in his most recent outing on Tuesday. Also, in 10 career starts against Tampa Bay, Garland is 5-1 with a 3.03 ERA in 68 1/3 innings of work.
Sonnanstine is 2-0 with a 2.33 ERA in his last three starts, including a 3-2 victory in Oakland on Wednesday, as he gave up both runs in six innings of work. At home, the right-hander is 6-3 with a 4.46 ERA in 12 starts, eight of which the Rays have won. That includes an 8-5 victory over Los Angeles on May 11, even though Sonnanstine got hit hard (five runs allowed in five innings). He’s 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA in two career starts versus the Angels.
The Angels are 5-1 in Garland’s last six road starts and 6-1 in his last seven when facing A.L. East teams. Meanwhile, the Rays are 15-6 in Sonnanstine’s last 21 starts overall and 10-2 in his last 12 against winning teams.
The under is 11-5-2 in Garland’s last 18 starts and 8-2 in his last 10 against the A.L. East. For Tampa, the under is 10-1 in their last 11 series openers and 12-5 in their last 17 versus a right-handed starter. Finally, the under is 6-2 in the last eight Rays-Angels battles and 4-1 in the last five clashes at Tropicana Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Dwayne Bryant
Oakland Athletics at Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins -133
The A's and Justin Duchscherer have fallen on hard times. Oakland has lost 25 of their last 30 games and each of Duchscherer's last six starts. Despite a 2.82 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in his road starts, the A's are just 3-7 in those games. That can be attributed to a lack of offense. I don't see that changing tonight, considering the A's are scoring just 3.38 runs per game over their last 10 contests vs. righties.
Minnesota's Nick Blackburn is 6-2 (team is 8-3) with a 2.90 ERA and 1.24 WHIP at home this season. Those numbers are almost identical to Duchscherer's road numbers. The difference is run support. I already touched on Oakland's lack of offense, but that is not an issue with the Twins -- especially at home. Minny is batting .288 and scoring 5.87 runs per game at home vs. righties this season. The Twins bullpen (2.34 ERA at home) has also been tough at The Metrodome.
The Athletics are 3-13 in their last 16 road games vs. a right-handed starter and 0-4 in Duchscherer's last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. The Twins are 10-1 in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing record, 5-1 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series, 5-1 in Blackburn's last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record, and 5-1 in Blackburn's last 6 home starts.
Take Minnesota
VEGAS EXPERTS
Oakland Athletics at Minnesota Twins
Getting the Twins at this price considering how poorly Oakland has been playing of late is a bargain. The A's lost 13-1 on Sunday to the team Minnesota is competing with in the AL Central, the White Sox. It was their 23rd loss in 28 games. The Twins are now 27-10 in the home favorite role after beating Seattle 11-8 yesterday. Making matters more difficult, Oakland has dropped 9 of 12 in the Land of 10,000 Lakes.
Play on: Minnesota
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Texas
The Rangers and Tigers get together in Texas in Game One of this three game series when Scott Feldman meets Kenny Rogers. After a shaky start, Feldman is roundng into form for the Rangers where his home ERA (4.28) is dramatically better than his road ERA (6.04) this season. With Rogers sporting a dismal 5.40 ERA away from home, look for the Tiges to dip to 2-8 in their last ten appearances on Mondays here tonight.
Jimmy The Moose
Houston Astros at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: over
Houston has played the over in 4 of their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 5-1 in their last 6 road games. The over is 5-1 in their last 6 vs. NL Central opponents. The Astros have played the over in 4 of their last 6. The over is 5-0 in Milwaukee's last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record. In their last 8 home games vs. a left-handed starter the over is 7-1. The over is 7-2-1 in their last 10 home games. The team's have played over the total in 4 of their last 5 meetings. Play the over.
SCOTT FERRALL
BASEBALL LOCKS FOR MONDAY
Maholm and the Bucs avoid the sweep and beat the Mets at +120--Maholm is 6-1 at PNC and has a 2.77 ERA at home this year
Atlanta -205 and Campillo over SF and Barry Zito, who basically never wins any game he pitches in
Buehrle and ChiSox -210 at home over the Mariners and Jared Washburn--The Sox are just too much for the M's to handle
A's +115 at Minnesota--Take Duchscherer over Blackburn in a mini-upset at the Homerdome
Feldman and the Rangers -110 over the Tigers and Kenny Rogers in Arlington
BASEBALL OVER-UNDERS FOR MONDAY
CHISOX-SEATT UNDER 9 RUNS
OAK-MINN UNDER 8 RUNS
DET-TEX OVER 11.5 RUNS
ANGELS-RAYS UNDER 9.5 RUNS
BOST-BALT OVER 8.5 RUNS
HOUS-MILW UNDER 7.5 RUNS
SF-ATL OVER 8.5 RUNS
NY-PITT UNDER 8.5 RUNS
BASEBALL FREE B's FOR MONDAY
TB and Andy Sonnanstine over Jon Garland and the Angels--I know the Halos are tough, but I think the Rays are better at home than almost any team in baseball
Lester -125 at Baltimore over the Orioles and Guthrie--The Red Sox are hitting again and so is Big Papi--take the Sox on the road here
Houston and Randy Wolf at a huge +230 at Miller Park over the Brew Crew--CC Sabathia hasn't lost once since coming to Milwaukee, but if he stumbles here against the Astros--you'll be jumping for joy with that fat payout
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL LOCK IN NY
Giants -3 to Cleveland--You know Eli and company are going to get this one at Giants Stadium. Yah, the Browns are decent, but since it doesn't really matter--the G-Men will get it done in NJ--CARR sees lots of action and has looked good for NY as the backup plan to Manning--UNDER 35.5
WILD BILL
New York Mets -125 (5 units)
Giants +185 (5 units)
Laa Angels +120 (5 units)
Astros +250 (5 units)
Tigers +105 (5 units)
Athletics +125 (5 units)
Mariners +185 (5 units)
Browns +3 (5 units)
Carlo Campanella
Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox
Seattle starts Jarrod Washburn on the mound at Chicago on Monday night. Washburn is 5-12 with a 4.58 ERA on the season, but enters off a solid effort in which he went 7 Innings and allowing just 1 Earned Run. Washburn's performance was good enough to get the win, but the Mariners lost 7-3 that night. Washburn has NOT been able to put solid back-to-back games together this year as we find him at a horrible 2-9 this season after holding his previous opponent to 2 Earned Runs or less!
Play on: Chicago
Alex Smart
Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles Under 8.5
Jeremy Guthrie(10-8, 3.18 ERA) the Orioles starting pitcher today against the visiting Boston Red Sox is in red hot form , as is evident by a 7-1 record along with a 2.51 ERA in his 11 appearances. He has been particularly brilliant of late posting a 1.23 ERA , while winning four straight starts. The former Stanford standout has allowed exactly one earned in nine of his L/14 starts, and another top effort is going to be on tap today, against a Boston batting order that has suddenly gone cold, after scoring just five times in losing both contests of a weekend set against the Toronto Blue Jays. Meanwhile, the BoSox will return fire with a top tier pitcher of their own, Jon Lester (11-4, 3.25 ERA). The southpaw hurler is 8-1 along with a stingy 2.87 ERA over his last 12 outings, and also owns a stellar 4-0 mark along with a 3.25 ERA in six career outing versus the Orioles. I know the young thrower, will face baseballs most explosive offense since the all star break, but this kid is something special and will be primed and capable of cooling the Os bats in this spot. With that said, I am recommending a wager on the UNDER
Matt Fargo
Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays are back home following a very successful roadtrip. They won all three series while going 7-3 in the process. Tampa Bay is now 14-4 over its last 18 games. The pitching has been outstanding over this stretch as the staff has allowed three runs or fewer in 11 of those games, giving up just 3.3 rpg over that stretch. The offense is not far behind of late as it has plated five runs or more in 11 of its last 15 games, averaging 6.0 rpg over that span.
The Angels are coming off a rare series loss at Cleveland and they have now dropped three of their last four games. There is no need for panic as they have all but locked up the American League West. The offense was quiet against the Indians, scoring only nine runs in the three-game set and they are hitting just .252 on the road for the season. They still own the best road record in baseball but we cannot forget that they dropped all three games played in Tampa Bay earlier this season and are 1-5 in their last six visits there.
Tampa as mentioned has been doing it with pitching and one of the key contributors has been Andy Sonnanstine. He has tossed three straight quality outings and has a 2.33 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over that span. He has also tossed three straight quality starts at home where he is 6-3 on the season and Tampa Bay has gone 8-4 in his 12 games at Tropicana Field. The Rays are 10-2 in his last 12 starts against a team with a winning record and they won his start against the Angels earlier this season.
The Angels counter with Jon Garland who has also tossed three straight quality outings. The last two came at home and over his last three road starts, he has a 9.64 ERA. He is a solid 7-2 on the road in his 10 outings but he has a 4.57 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in those games. Opponents are hitting .302 against him in those contests and he faces a hot offense that has plated seven runs in three of its last four games. The Rays keep it going on Monday. Play Tampa Bay Rays 1.5 Units
LT Profits
Pittsburgh Pirates +125
John Maine of the New York Mets has walked more men this year than in past seasons while Paul Maholm of the Pittsburgh Pirates has been great at home, so the Bucs get the upset call in this very early matinee.
In fact, Maholm is an unbelievable 6-1 at home while pitching for a team that is 14 games under .500, with a nice 3.06 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in his own stadium. Maholm has also handled the Mets well, going a perfect four for four in Quality Starts against them the last two years.
Maine is 10-7 overall, but he has not pitched well on the road where he is 5-6 with a rather high 1.42 WHIP. While he has allowed a respectable 65 hits in 70.2 road innings, it is his 35 walks in 70.2 road innings that has inflated his WHIP and prevented him from working deep into games. His last start at Washington was a typical one, as he allowed no runs and just one hit, but he lasted just five innings as he threw 90 pitches.
A short outing here would mean an early call to the Mets bullpen, which has been a disaster area since Billy Wagner went on the Disables List. All things considered, this is nice value for Pittsburgh at home.
Pick: Pirates +125
JB's Computer Picks
New York Mets -145
Milwaukee Brewers -270 * * *
Chicago White Sox -210
Best Bet ***
THE BOOKIE PAYS YOU:
THE BOOKIE PAYS YOU:
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My first thought was... BREWERS all the WAY, but even though the Brew-Crew will probably win tonight, the moneyline is absolutely insane! -290! So... Instead of taking the obvious, I'm going to tell you who WILL also win, and pay you a lot more than those betting on the Brewers. It's our old friends, the Mets. This looks like a very good spot to build your bankroll, and there are several reasons why I say that. 1) The Mets have won SIX straight overall. 2) They've also won SIX straight road games. 3) Their opponent, the Pirates... have lost FOUR straight. 4) AND MOST OF ALL... WE HAVEN'T LOST BACK TO BACK RELEASES IN ALMOST TWO MONTHS! If you're looking to build your bankroll and get a good return, this is definitely the game to do it on. Remember... We Don't Lose Two in a Row. Mets all the way! ***** Thanks.
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Scott Spreitzer
New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates
Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates
Paul Maholm has been smoking for the Bucs, while John Maine has not been eating very many innings for the visitor. He continued his string of quick outings in his return from the DL, going just five innings in his last start. Now, he must make the early start at Pittsburgh, and daytime action has been Maine's weakness. Meanwhile, Maholm is the perfect candidate to snap the Mets' win streak and Pittsburgh's four game skid. Maholm has won three straight starts over the Mets, sporting a 2.37 ERA along the way. The lefty has been strong at home all season and I look for him to have little trouble with NY in this one. Pittsburgh takes the money on Monday.
Big Al Mcmordie
Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays
At 7:10pm our member selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Los Angeles Angels. This could very well be an August preview of the American League Championship Series. Most people agree that the Angels will cruise into the playoffs, having played in easily the weakest division in the League, but there is a question as to whether that is a good thing or not. If the Rays win their division, it will have been over a tougher road than Anaheim will have travelled and that could prepare the Rays better for October. And Tampa's challenge is getting even more difficult, as three of the Rays regulars are out of action. Evan Longoria was making a strong case for AL Rookie of the Year when he went down with a wrist injury, joining outfielder Carl Crawford (hand) and closer Troy Percival, who made his second trip to the DL this season with a knee injury. Fortunately, this team is perhaps the deepest in terms of talent in the league. There have been plenty of nice surprises for Tampa (including Percival when healthy) but perhaps the biggest has been the performance of righthanded starter Andy Sonanstine. Sonnanstine's 4.35 ERA may only be about average, but he has 12 wins and more important is the fact that Tampa has won sixteen of his 24 starts this year. The home team has been dominant in this series lately, taking twelve of the last fourteen meetings, and that bodes extremely well for Tampa, who are 41-10 in their last 51 games at the Trop.
Take the Rays.