LT Profits
Seattle Seahawks +6.5
The Monday Night Football contest between the Seattle Seahawks and the San Diego Chargers features the largest pointspread of any preseason game so fat this year, and frankly, not only do we feel the spread is inflated but we also give the underdog Seahawks an excellent chance to win straight up!
As usual, LaDainian Tomlinson has yet to see a snap in the preseason, and that will be the case again this week. However, that is not the entire story. The Chargers will also again be without tight end Antonio Gates, and without LT and Gates in the lineup, the club manages just six points vs. the St/ Louis Rams last week. As if that is not bad enough, linebacker Shawne Merriman may have a torn posterior cruciate ligament.
Now the Seahawks may be without quarterback Matt Hasselbeck, but they will not be missing anyone else of note, and Charlie Frye played commendably in directing Seattle to a thrilling 29-26 overtime win over the Bears last week. Seneca Wallace has also performed well in the past, so the drop-off at the quarterback position is not all that much for just one game.
The bottom line here is that the Seahawks have played better this preseason and they will have more guns at their disposal, a dangerous combination for a decided underdog like this.
Pick: Seahawks +6.5
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies Under 8.0
The Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies were in a 2-1 game with two outs in the ninth inning last night, and although four more runs were then scored, the contest still stayed Under, and we look for another such result tonight.
Chad Billingsley deserved much better than his 12-9 record for the Dodgers, as he owns a 3.10 ERA and is among the league leaders in strikeouts with 168 in just 162.2 innings. He limited the Phillies to just one run and four hits in seven innings the last time he faced them, and he is catching a Philadelphia lineup here that is batting a pathetic .223 over the last 10 games.
Meanwhile, Brett Myers has completely turned his season around for the Phillies, and he is finally pitching like the number two starter he was projected to be. Myers has now allowed three runs or less in six consecutive starts, and he is coming off of a Complete Game shutout of the Washington Nationals. True, the Nats are not much, but Myers did toss a Quality Start in his only other outing vs. the Dodgers this year.
Look for both offenses to struggle once again.
Pick: Dodgers, Phillies Under 8
Marc Lawrence
Play On: San Diego
Padres send Jake Peavey to the hill against Dan Haren in a matchup of top-flight right handers in San Diego this evening in a rematch from last Wednesday when Haren topped Peavy, 8-6, in Arizona. With Peavy sporting a 1.42 ERA at home this season, look for Peavy to improve to 9-3 in his career team starts at home on Mondays here this in this major payback this evening.
Jimmy The Moose
Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
Prior to last night's game the Dodgers had lost 4 of their last 5 games. LA is 1-8 in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Dodgers have lost 4 straight road games. LA is 2-6 in Billingsley's last 8 road starts. The Dodgers have dropped 3 of his last 4 starts overall. Philadelphia has won 5 of their last 6 games prior to last night's game. The Phillies are 6-1 in their last 7 home games. Philadelphia has won 4 of Meyer's last 5 starts. The Phillies are 7-1 in his last 8 starts vs. the Dodgers. Play on the Phillies -.
Ross Benjamin
Arizona @ San Diego
Pick:San Diego +105
You are almost insured you are getting a good underdog value with Jake Peavy pitching at home. Peavy has posted an excellent 1.42 ERA in 11 starts at home in 2008. Peavy is also a profitable 7-2 in his home team starts versus Arizona since 2005. His adversary Dan Haren enters the game in bad form off of his last 4 starts posting a 6.10 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. Play on the San Diego Padres
Scott Ferrall
NFL Pre-Season WEEK 3 (Monday Night Football)
Chargers -3.5 to Seahawks in Southern Cali--I like this San Diego team a lot and you'll see why here--UNDER 39.5--they can both play some serious defense
BASEBALL FREE B's FOR MONDAY
Weaver -220 and the Halos in Anaheim over the A's and Braden
Liriano -200 at Seattle as the Twins keep pace with Chicago by taking out Batista and the Mariners
Karstens +170 and the Bucs in the UPSET SPECIAL over Ted Lilly and the Cubs at PNC in the Steel City
LA +105 and Chad Billingsley strikes out 8 and cools off the Phillies at Citzens and Brett Myers takes the loss
Wild Bill
Seattle-Chargers Over 39½ (5 units)
Chargers -3 (5 units)
THE BOOKIE PAYS YOU:
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Your Monday THREE-PEAT Release!
I'm Baaaaack! We had won two straight last week and we're looking to
add to those wins today. It's very simple... Angels ALL THE WAY! The
Halos are 5-1 in Jared Weavers last six home starts, and 5-1 in their last
six overall versus the A's. While Oakland is just 6-22 in their last 28
meetings with a team with a winning record, and 15-36 in their last 51
overall. I know that the moneyline is inflated in this one, BUT.... the whole
reason for that is so that Vegas can try to get people to bet on the
underdog just because of how good the return of money would be. BUT...
it's a setup, because the payout only looks good on paper. An underdog of
-230 or worse actually wins the game outright about 14% of the time. So
you tell me where you're droppin your money? I'm taking the Angels. ****
Thanks.
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DUNKEL
Cleveland at Detroit
The Indians come off a sweep in Texas and look to take advantage of a Detroit team that is just 9-13 in August. Cleveland is the underdog pick (+185) according to Dunkel, which has the Indians favored straight up by 1. Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+185). Here are all of today's games.
MONDAY, AUGUST 25
Game 901-902: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago Cubs (Lilly) 14.803; Pittsburgh (Karstens) 14.946
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+185); Over
Game 903-904: LA Dodgers at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 14.191; Philadelphia (Myers) 15.460
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-110); Under
Game 905-906: Houston at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Moehler) 15.725; NY Mets (Pelfrey) 14.500
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 8
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-235); 9
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+215); Under
Game 907-908: Arizona at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Haren) 15.525; San Diego (Peavy) 13.999
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-120); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-120); Under
Game 909-910: Colorado at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Francis) 15.087; San Francisco (Cain) 16.448
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-125); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-125); Over
Game 911-912: Chicago White Sox at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Richard) 16.043; Baltimore (Waters) 15.120
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-115); 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-115); Over
Game 913-914: Cleveland at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Jackson) 15.109; Detroit (Galarraga) 14.046
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Detroit (-200); 10
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+185); Over
Game 915-916: Texas at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Feldman) 13.766; Kansas City (Meche) 14.557
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-115); Over
Game 917-918: Oakland at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Braden) 14.041; LA Angels (Weaver) 16.326
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 2 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-230); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-230); Under
Game 919-920: Minnesota at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Liriano) 16.209; Seattle (Batista) 14.072
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-200); Under
SPORTS ADVISORS
NFL PRESEASON
Seattle (2-0 SU and ATS) at San Diego (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS)
Two former AFC West rivals face off in August for the third straight year when the Seahawks tee it up against the Chargers in a nationally televised contest from Qualcomm Stadium.
The Seahawks earned a 29-26 overtime victory over the Bears back on Aug. 16, covering as a one-point home underdog. Third-string QB Charlie Frye started and played the entire game, finishing 20-for-35 for 209 yards, but he failed to throw a TD pass and had three interceptions. Seattle rushed for 241 yards against Chicago, with rookie Justin Forsett rattling off 136 yards and a touchdown, while the Seahawks’ defense held the Bears to 205 total yards, including 51 yards on the ground.
San Diego sat most of its starters against the Rams last week, and it showed in a 7-6 road loss, though the Chargers did cash as a three-point underdog. With QB Philip Rivers on the sidelines all night, Charlie Whitehurst (6-for-14 for 67 yards) and Billy Volek (5-for-7 for 58 yards) split time under center. The Chargers were outgained by St. Louis, 309-203.
The Chargers scored a 31-20 win over Seattle in Week 3 of the 2006 preseason as a 3½-point home favorite, but Seattle returned to San Diego for last year’s preseason opener and got a 24-16 win as a 3½-point road underdog.
Seattle is 5-1 SU and ATS in preseason play going back to last August, and over the last four summers, Mike Holmgren’s team is 7-2 SU and ATS on the road and 6-2 ATS as an underdog. Additionally, the Seahawks are on a 4-1 SU and ATS roll in Week 3 preseason games.
The Chargers are 4-2 SU and ATS in August since Norv Turner took over as coach last year, and they’re 6-1 SU and ATS at home in exhibition action dating to 2005. Also, San Diego has won four of its last five Week 3 preseason games (3-2 ATS).
Seahawks’ starting QB Matt Hasselbeck was scheduled to see some action in this one but hasn’t practiced since Tuesday when he left with tightness in his back, and Holmgren has said his top passer won’t see the field again until the regular season. With backup Seneca Wallace still nursing a groin injury, it is likely going to be all Frye again tonight with Wallace available only if necessary. Seattle also has injury issues at WR, with starters Bobby Engram and Deion Branch out of the lineup.
Turner said he will play most of his healthy starters into the third quarter tonight, but don’t expect that to include Rivers. He will likely play into the second quarter before giving way to Volek, who will lead the offense until the fourth quarter before handing off to Whitehurst. Also sidelined as usual in the preseason is RB LaDainian Tomlinson, who won’t suit up until the regular-season opener. On defense, don’t expect to see starters Luis Castillo, Jamal Williams or LB Shawne Merriman, who has two torn ligaments in his knee and may need season-ending surgery.
The over is 10-4 for the Seahawks over the last three-plus preseasons, including 8-1 in the last nine overall and 5-0 in the last five on the road. Meanwhile, the over is 6-2 in the Chargers’ last eight August games (3-1 at home). Finally, since 2002, the over is 4-1 in five August contests between these two.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
L.A. Dodgers (65-65) at Philadelphia (71-59)
The Phillies will try to make it a four-game sweep when they wrap up their series against the Dodgers with Brett Myers (6-10, 4.71 ERA) set to pitch opposite Los Angeles’ Chad Billingsley (12-9, 3.10) at Citizens Bank Park.
The Phillies won the first two games of this series by a combined 17-3 Friday and Saturday but had to rally for a run in the ninth and three in the 11th Sunday to beat Los Angeles, 5-2.
Philadelphia is on a 7-2 roll since getting swept in a four-game series at L.A. earlier this month. Charlie Manuel’s club is also on hot streaks of 6-1 at home, 5-1 versus right-handed starters, 4-0 against the N.L. West, 20-6 when Myers faces N.L. West competition and 19-8 when hosting the Dodgers at Citizens Bank.
Since taking four straight from Philadelphia, the Dodgers have dropped six of their last eight. They’ve also lost eight of their last 10 road games, including the last five in a row. With Billingsley on the mound, L.A. is on a 10-4 run against N.L. East foes, but is 2-6 in his last eight on the highway.
Billingsley is just 4-5 in 12 starts on the road despite a 2.91 ERA. He’s gone eight straight starts without giving up more than three runs, including yielding just two runs on five hits in six innings on Wednesday, getting a no-decision in his team’s 4-3 home loss. The right-hander has faced the Phillies twice, both in 2007, and Los Angeles won both outings by scores of 5-2 in Philly and 5-4 at home.
Myers has pitched well lately, going 2-1 with a 1.52 ERA in his last three outings. He’s 5-3 with a 3.04 ERA in front of the home fans, and he’s coming off a complete-game shutout on Wednesday, blanking the Nationals 4-0. The Phillies have won seven of his last eight starts against the Dodgers, but the one loss came earlier this month in Los Angeles, as Myers allowed three runs on five hits in seven innings, falling 3-1.
The under is 6-2 in Billingsley’s last eight road starts, but the Dodgers have soared over the total in 23 of their last 32 Monday outings. The under is 4-0 in Myers’ last four at home and 9-1-1 in the Phillies’ last 11 home games overall. Finally, the under is 8-2 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings in Philadelphia.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Rocketman Sports
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
I feel like the Dodgers will be in revenge mode this evening after blowing a 2-1 lead in the 9th inning last night and eventually losing in extra innings. Philadelphia is 4-12 this year at home when the money line is -100 to -125. LA Dodgers bullpen has a 3.13 ERA on the road this year. Billingsley has a 3.10 ERA in all games this year, a 2.99 ERA on the road and he is 1-0 his last 3 starts. Myers is 6-10 overall this year. Billingsley has a 1-0 record against the Phillies since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on the LA Dodgers.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
Considering that Jake Peavy is 16-5 to the Under pitching at home when the total is 7 or less, we have supreme confidence in another low scoring affair tonight even with this low number. As a team, the Padres are 18-8 Under when the total is 7 or less this season, regardless of location. Arizona's Dan Haren is far from chop liver himself with a 2.96 road ERA and San Diego averages only 3.5 runs per game at home this year.
Play on: Under
Craig Trapp
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Diego Chargers
Play: Over
Take the over in this west coast battle. These teams both have very strong offenses that are going for there last real dress rehearsal. Both starters sound like they will play at least to half time if not into the 2nd half. Key backups at skill positions for both team should still keep the scoring up for 2nd half. Take the over and sit back and watch the scoreboard light up!!
Scott Spreitzer
Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: Over
Baltimore has been playing high scoring games all season, and the oddsmakers just haven't adjusted. If you throw out pushes, Baltimore is better than 70% Overs in its last 50 games, and is in the same neighborhood over the last 70 games. That means you should be thinking Over as a default every time they take the field, particularly in these warm summer temperatures. Tonight isn't just a typical game though. It's a game matching horrible pitchers! Both Clayton Richard and Chris Waters have poor ERA's in limited action. On the road, Richard has an ERA of 9.90 with a 2.10 WHIP. At home, Waters has an ERA of 10.00 with a 2.33 WHIP. Either offense could explode and do most of the damage themselves. If both just have their typical outings vs. soft pitching, we'll see a high scoring shootout that clears the hurdle. The Over in the White sox/Orioles game is the play.
Big Al Mcmordie
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
Prediction: Over
Reason: At 10:10pm our Member selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres 'over' the total. On paper, this is one of the best pitching matchups of the year with Arizona's recently-acquired 27 year-old righthander Danny Haren facing last year's Cy Young award winner, San Diego's 27 year-old righthander Jake Peavy. Peavy's season, although better than about 95% of the starters out there, is certainly not what he had hoped for as a follow-up to his incredible 2008 campaign. Peavy has battled injury and although his ERA is a very good 2.84, he is only 9-9, and the Padres have struggled when he takes the mound, going 9-13 in his 22 starts. Haren has been getting terrific run support lately. In five of his last six starts (dating back to July 25) the Diamondbacks have scored six or more runs, and a total of 48 runs in the last six for an average of eight runs per game. Haren has needed all of this run support lately, as in his last three starts he has given up 28 hits in just over nineteen innings en route to an ugly 6.05 ERA. Peavy has struggled with his control lately, yielding an uncharacteristic 12 walks in his last three games covering only 18 innings. These two great athletes took the mound to face one another only five days ago and their combined starts yielded a total of 16 hits and 10 earned runs in only 11 innings. Take the 'over'.
Dennis Macklin
Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals
Prediction: Kansas City Royals
Both teams are struggling mightily, Texas 3-13 in their L16, Kansas City 2-10 in their L12. That said, the Rangers are just 2-7 in Feldman's L9 road starts while the Royals ar 6-0 in L6 homies behind Gil Meche. The ex-Met/Mariner has no decisions in his L3 starts despite 2.39 ERA. With little to support either on tonight's abbreviated travel day card, prefer home team with better starting pitching at a rare very manageable price.