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Fresno State at Rutgers
Rutgers opens the 2008 campaign at home in Piscataway, N.J., against the Bulldogs, who will make their longest road trip since 2000, when they got belted 43-10 at Ohio State.
The Scarlet Knights, under eighth-year coach Greg Schiano, followed their breakthrough 11-2 season in 2006 by going just 8-5 last year (6-6 ATS), but they did finish up with a 52-30 victory over Ball State in the International Bowl as an 11-point favorite. Prior to that easy spread-cover, Rutgers was on a 1-4 ATS slide.
Fresno State, with coach Pat Hill entering his 12th season, is coming off a solid 9-4 season (7-5 ATS) that included a 40-28 victory over Georgia Tech in the Humanitarian Bowl. After failing to cover in two of their first three games last year, the Bulldogs went 6-3 ATS the rest of the season, putting behind their nightmarish 1-10-1 ATS effort of 2006.
The Scarlet Knights have 15 starters back from last year, but they must find a way to replace running back Ray Rice, who racked up an eye-popping 2,012 rushing yards in 2007. QB Mike Teel (3,147 yards passing, 20 TDs, 13 INTs last year) returns for his third year as the starter, and Rutgers also has all of its top receivers returning. Rutgers averaged 32.8 ppg last year, while allowing 22.5.
The Bulldogs are favored to win the Western Athletic Conference in 2008 thanks to 17 returning starters returning, including running backs Lonyae Miller, Ryan Matthews and Anthony Harding, who combined for 1,924 rushing yards and 25 TDs last season. Also returning is QB Tom Brandstater, who threw for 15 TDs against just five INTs last year. However, Fresno State is looking for big improvement on defense after ranking 73rd in the nation last year, allowing more than 400 yards per game.
The Knights are on a 12-2 SU tear in their last 14 non-conference games, winning by an average of 28 points, but they are a mediocre 8-9 ATS in their last 17 starts as a home chalk (2-3 ATS last year in that role) and they’re 2-6 ATS as a single-digit favorite since 2005. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, have been solid against the number as a non-conference ‘dog, going 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games in that role, and they cashed in four of their final five on the road in 2007.
The over for Rutgers is on runs of 11-5-1 overall and 7-3-1 at home, and the over for Fresno State is on streaks of 4-0 in non-conference play, 5-2 in roadies and 14-6 in September.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FRESNO STATE and OVER
(18) Tennessee at UCLA
The Bruins open the Rick Neuheisel era with a tough non-conference clash against Tennessee at the Rose Bowl.
Neuheisel, a former UCLA quarterback who has had head-coaching stops at Colorado and Washington, inherits a squad that went a disappointing 6-7 last year (9-4 ATS). Despite a .500 record, the Bruins snuck into the Las Vegas Bowl, where they lost to BYU 17-16, though they covered as a six-point underdog even though coach Karl Dorrell was fired as coach after the regular season. In the spread-cover versus BYU, UCLA enters this season on a 4-0 ATS roll.
Phil Fulmer, who took over for Johnny Majors midway through the 1992 season, is entering his 17th year as head coach at Tennessee, which went 10-4 last year (9-4-1 ATS). The Vols hit their stride down the stretch, winning six of their last seven games (5-1-1 ATS), including a 21-17 New Year’s Day victory over Wisconsin as a 2½-point favorite in the Outback Bowl.
UCLA is already thin at QB, with Pat Cowan (knee) out for the season and Ben Olson (foot) likely out until midseason, leaving Neuheisel with junior college transfer Kevin Craft under center. The Bruins have just nine returning starters from a team that struggled to score last year, being held to 16 points or less six times, including four games in single digits. In fact, UCLA barely outscored its opponents last season, averaging 22.4 ppg while allowing of 22.3.
As with UCLA, Tennessee will have a first-year starter at QB in Jonathan Crompton, but 1,000-yard rusher Arian Foster and 1,000-yard receiver Lucas Taylor return, as do four of five offensive linemen. The Vols, playing in the perennially tough SEC, averaged 32.5 ppg last year while allowing just a few points less at 27.3.
The Bruins are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games at the Rose Bowl, and they are on further positive pointspread runs of 6-0 as a home ‘dog, 4-0 against the SEC, 13-2-1 overall as a pup since 2004 and 19-7-1 in September. The Volunteers are 14-2 SU in their last 16 season openers, but both losses came in West Coast road games, at UCLA in 1994 and at California last year. Tennessee sports ATS streaks of 4-0 in non-SEC play and 5-2 in September.
For UCLA, the under is on runs of 4-0 overall, 4-0 at home and 6-2 in non-conference action. The total also stayed low in six of Tennessee’s final seven games in 2007.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UCLA and UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
N.Y. Mets (76-61) at Milwaukee (80-56)
The N.L. East-leading Mets hand the ball to southpaw Johan Santana (12-7, 2.70 ERA) at Miller Park to open a three-game set against the Brewers, who will counter with right-hander Ben Sheets (12-7, 3.05).
New York beat Florida 6-2 on the road Sunday to take two of three from the Marlins. The Mets have won three of their last four games and are on further streaks of 5-0 behind Santana, 5-1 in series openers, 8-3 on the highway and 13-5 overall.
Milwaukee, which leads the N.L. wild-card race, pounded Pittsburgh 7-0 Sunday behind a one-hitter from CC Sabathia to complete a sweep of the three-game series. The Brew Crew has won 19 of 26 and eight of its last nine overall and sports additional runs of 4-0 at home, 23-7 against lefty starters and 8-1 with Sheets facing an N.L. East team.
This is just the second series of the season between these two teams, with Milwaukee having taken two of three at New York in April. The Mets are 9-4 in the last 13 clashes at Miller Park, but the Brewers are 4-1 in Sheets’ last five outings against New York.
The Mets are 5-0 in Santana’s last five starts, including a come-from-behind 6-3 victory at Philadelphia on Wednesday, in which Santana allowed three runs on five hits in six innings. Over his last eight starts, Santana has allowed just 12 earned runs in 59 1/3 innings, for a minuscule 1.82 ERA.
Sheets snapped a 1-4 slide over his previous five starts with a solid effort in a 12-0 rout Tuesday at St. Louis. He scattered five hits in six shutout innings.
Santana is 6-4 with a 3.12 ERA in 15 road starts this season, and he’s 3-2 with a 3.61 ERA in 10 career appearances (six starts) against Milwaukee. Sheets is 5-4 with a 3.52 ERA in 10 home starts this year, and he’s 4-2 in seven career starts against New York, despite an inflated 5.10 ERA.
For New York, the over is on streaks of 5-2-1 overall, 8-1-2 on Mondays and 18-8-2 against the N.L. Central, and the over is 12-4-1 in Milwaukee’s last 17 home games against lefties. Finally, in this rivalry, the over is on runs of 40-17-5 overall, 10-1-1 at Miller Park and 5-0 with Sheets starting against New York.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Houston (71-66) at Chicago Cubs (85-52)
The Cubs, with the second-best record in baseball behind Tampa Bay, send Jason Marquis (9-7, 4.52 ERA) to the hill at Wrigley Field to open a three-game series against the Astros and ace Roy Oswalt (12-9, 4.11).
Chicago has followed a seven-game winning streak with two straight home losses to Philadelphia, including Sunday’s 5-3 setback. But the Cubs are still on a bevy of positive runs, including 35-18 overall, 50-18 at home, 11-4 against winning teams and 21-8 when Marquis toes the rubber at Wrigley.
Houston shut out St. Louis 3-0 Sunday to post its fifth straight victory and seventh in the last nine games. The Astros are 6-1 in Oswalt’s last seven starts overall, but they are a paltry 4-10 in his last 14 road starts.
These two N.L. Central rivals have split 12 meetings this season, with Chicago taking two of three at home in their most recent series Aug. 4-6. The Cubs are 4-0 in Marquis’ last four home starts against the Astros and 5-1 the last six times they’ve faced Oswalt.
The Cubs have won three of their last four behind Marquis, including a 2-0 victory at Pittsburgh on Wednesday. In that outing, Marquis allowed five hits in seven shutout innings.
Oswalt allowed one run on five hits in seven innings in Wednesday’s 4-1 home victory over Cincinnati, his fourth win in his last five starts. The right-hander has gone at least seven innings in all five of those outings.
Marquis is 4-4 with a 5.76 ERA in 13 home starts this season, and he’s 9-5 with a 5.22 ERA in 25 career appearances (20 starts) against Houston. Oswalt is 4-6 with a 3.93 ERA in 12 road starts this year, and he’s an even 11-11 with a 4.09 ERA in 25 career appearances (24 starts) against Chicago.
The over for the Cubs is on runs of 10-5 against winning teams, 5-1 in series openers, 6-2 behind Marquis at home and 9-4 against Oswalt. On the flip side, the under is on a 5-1 overall tear for the Astros and is on additional runs of 10-4 on the road behind Oswalt and 37-17-1 in the last 55 meetings between these two teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO CUBS
Bobby Maxwell
Fresno State +4½ at RUTGERS
Now 51-44 with our last 95 FREE selections and today our comp winner comes on Fresno State as the Bulldogs travel across the country to take on Rutgers.
There's talk in the college football world that this Fresno State team has a chance to reach a BCS bowl game if it can run the table. Its strength of schedule and talent give it a chance to go all the way this season in what a lot of folks are calling coach Pat Hill's best team ever.
Hill is in his 12th season with Fresno State and coming off a 9-4 season that included a 40-28 win over Georgia Tech in the Humanitarian Bowl. The Bulldogs went 6-3 ATS down the stretch last season and they've got 17 returning starters.
Back for Fresno is RBs Lonyae Miller, Ryan Matthews and Anthony Harding who combined for 1,924 yards and 25 TDs. Also back is QB Tom Brandstater who tossed 15 TDs and just five INTs a season ago. The Bulldogs have got to be better on defense after giving up more than 400 yards a game.
Rutgers is missing a big chunk of its offense after losing Ray Rice to the NFL. Third-year starter Mike Teel is back but not much else. The Knights are just 8-9 ATS in their last 17 starts as a home favorite and just 2-6 as a single-digit favorite since 2005.
Fresno State is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 as a non-conference 'dog and they cashed in four of their last five on the road last season.
This one has the makings of a great opener but we see Fresno holding on down the stretch for a close win. Play the Bulldogs.
2♦ FRESNO STATE
Marc Lawrence
Game: New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers
Prediction: Detroit Tigers
Tigers host the Yankees in a one-game series on Labor Day when Justin Verlander takes on the Pinstripes in the Motor City. Verlander has rounded into decent form with wins in 8 of his last 13 team starts. He's also 4-0 in his MLB career team starts against the Yanks. With New York 1-8 in its last nine games on Mondays, including 0-5 their last five on the road on Mondays, look for the Yankees troubles to continue here this afternoon.
Jimmy The Moose
Game: San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: San Diego Padres
Nothing much has really gone right for the Padres this season and you know that the team can't wait for this season to end. San Diego has been playing better recenty and have now won 5 of their last 6 games. The Padres have won 5 of their last 6 vs. NL West opponents. SD is 14-5 in Youngs last 19 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. With last night's win the Dodgers are now 2-8 in their last 10 games. The Dodgers send Maddux to the mound tonight and they have lost his two starts. LA has lost 3 of the last 4 meetings between the clubs. Play on the San Diego Padres +.
Scott Ferrall
BASEBALL FREE B's FOR LABOR DAY
Texas -165 over Seattle--Harrison over Silva
Cliff Lee -170 and the Tribe over the White Sox at the Jake
Atlanta +150 and Mike Hampton goes back to Florida and says remember me to the Marlins and Josh Johnson
Colorado -170 over San Fran in the Rockies--De La Rosa over Dirty Sanchez
Frank Jordan
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
Greg Maddux got sent over just a couple of weeks ago from San Diego back to the Dodgers. Look for Maddux and the LA Dodgers to win their 3rd in a row and start September off with a big win. Play LA Dodgers
Gator
e-Report 70% Super Situation:
Monday: Play Against MLB (AL) road teams with a team that averages <=4.2 runs per game against a starting pitcher whose ERA= 4.70 to 5.70, with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season, 42-14 SU since 1997
PLAY: Texas Rangers -160
e-Report Top Angle
Monday: SAN DIEGO is 2-16 against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +150 this season
SPORTS INSIGHTS
2-0 ON SAT
Tennessee vs UCLA
Traditional powerhouse Tennessee travels to LA to welcome Rick Neuheisel back to college football. Neuheisel returns to his alma mater and brings offensive mastermind Norm Chow with him as offensive coordinator. The Bruins lost starting QB Ben Olson to a season-ending foot injury early in fall camp, and JC transfer Kevin Craft gets the opening start. UCLA's defense finished last season ranked 14th in the nation against the run, and they will have to have a good day against Volunteers RB Adrian Foster and a strong offensive line. The Vols defense was up-and-down last season, but they finished the year with two strong showings against top 25 teams.
The intrigue in this game comes from the public backing the away Volunteers and pushing the line in that direction. We like home dogs at Sports Insights, especially when when they're receiving more than a touchdown in the spread. Tennessee opened as -7 favorites at Pinnacle and other books, but are currently sitting at -7.5 at most books due to receiving over 75% of public bets. We're looking for Rick Neuheisel and Norm Chow to keep it close and maybe sneak out a win at home, so we're taking the Bruins +7.5.
UCLA +7.5
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week 1.
UCLA +7.5
Ace-Ace
3-Unit Play. Fresno State (+5) over Rutgers
Are you ready for some Monday afternoon football? The Bulldogs of Fresno State have a chance to be a BCS sleeper in the mold of Boise State and Hawaii over the last two years. Fresno returns 10 starters from an offense that finished No. 38 in the country last year. I think they can win this game outright and we’re getting good value on a team that started the season in the Top 25.
Doc's
3* Fresno St
Westcoast Sports
Tennessee -7
Fresno State +4
CKO
PRIORITY PICKS and PREFERENCES
11* FRESNO STATE over *Rutgers
Late Score Forecast:
FRESNO STATE 34 - *Rutgers 28
THE BOOKIE PAYS YOU ???
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I'm gettin to the point today... FRESNO STATE WILL COVER! They have
the better team, more experience, and a BIG GAME COACH. He's beaten
BCS top 25 teams consistently over the past few years, and this young
Rutgers team shouldn't be giving up the points in this one, they should be
the underdog. FRESNO STATE +4pts. ALL THE WAY!! Thanks.****
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My comment: Sports Book Spy shows 71% betting on Fresno :-","xx
NEWSLETTER PLAYS
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK
RUTGERS over Fresno St by 3
Our eyebrows raised when the preseason polls opened and the Bulldogs landed a spot in the nation’s Top 25. No disrespect to Pat Hill but the feeling here is they are not even the best team in their conference.Hill has done a masterful job with this program, especially in games outside the conference where he is 26-8-1 ATS. Despite the fact his Bulldogs are 0-6 ATS in their last six games on weekdays, we respect his ability to shine in non-conference clashes. While Rutgers may be down a notch or two in ’08 the fact remains they are a well-coached squad themselves with Greg Schiano on the sidelines. The Knights’ 6-1 ATS mark as non-conference chalk, 6-1 ATS log in season openers and 5-1 ATS record in weekday games makes this a tough call.
Tennessee over UCLA by 4
The Volunteers may have lost 14 games the past three seasons but they still own the best road record of all SEC teams (48-18) since 1992. QB Jonathon Crompton steps in for Erik Ainge knowing the PAC 10 has had its way against Tennessee of late, going 5-1 ATS in the last six showdowns. Adding fuel to the fi re is Vol head coach Phil Fulmer’s decision to suspend starting defensive back Brett Vinson and defensive tackle Donald Langley due to academic issues. On the fl ip side, the Bruins have been college football’s BEST home dog lately, going 8-0 ATS when taking points in Pasadena. They’re also 5-0 ATS against the SEC and 8-1 ATS in lidlifters! However, before you empty the vault, heed these words of caution: Rick Neuheisel’s newcoach status makes him a SMART BOX liability and QB problems are biting the Bruins (3rd-string Kevin Craft will be at the helm today).Even so, the points look too good to pass up.
GOLD SHEET
** KEY RELEASE **
*UCLA 20 - Tennessee 17--With top two projected QBs unavailable and banged-up OL looking like a disaster area in preseason camp, Rick Neuheisel's debut at UCLA has already had to take some detours. But before dismissing Bruins, remember that quick-footed "D" should be ornery once more for respected d.c. Walker, and who better than sage, vet o.c. Norm Chow to smooth out the rough spots for juco QB Craft (who started five games at San Diego State in '06)? UT in adjustment phase, too, as 1st-year o.c. Dave Clawson (ex-Richmond HC) trying to get new QB Crompton comfy as Vols debut their own West Coast attack. Note Bruins have covered their last 10 as a dog, and "short" was very profitable role for Neuheisel in previous career stops at Colorado and Washington. CABLE TV--ESPN (DNP...SR: Tennessee 7-4-2)
REG -
Fresno State 31 - RUTGERS 30--Departure of record-setting RB Rice (along with increasing scrutiny from the financially-strapped state of New Jersey into money being spent on Scarlet Knights' football program) might signal an end to HC Schiano's honeymoon at resurgent Rutgers. On the other hand, pugnacious Pat Hill's Fresno squad appears ready to rise, with many TGS scouts pegging veteran Bulldogs as the team to beat in WAC. Sure, Knights' strong-armed sr. QB Teel will get his. But FSU sr. QB Brandstater has enough composure to burn Rutgers' constant blitzes for big plays. Upset alert. TV--ESPN
WINNING POINTS
Rutgers* over Fresno State by 7
Bulldogs got some of their swagger back last year, but not the kind of physical defense that we are accustomed to from Pat Hill – even in a nine-win season they allowed 5.1 per rush and only had 14 takeaways. Without getting push up front,the secondary faces challenges against playmakers Tiquan Underwood and Kenny Britt. RUTGERS 27-20.
Tennessee over U.C.L.A.* by 10
In time the recruiting of Rick Neuheisel, and tactical acumen of Norm Chow and DeWayne Walker, can have the Bruin program offering Southern Cal a serious local challenge. But that is in time, for now the absence of a legit starting QB means problems against this class of opponent. TENNESSEE 29-19
POINTWISE
4-Fresno State (+5 1/2) over Rutgers 27-24
Key Selections are graded 1 to 4, with 1 being the highest rating. "5" rated games are considered "best of the rest"
Red Sheet week 1
88--Fresno State (+5 1/2) over Rutgers 27-24
88--UCLA (+7) over Tennessee 25-22
Bob Akmens
4* Rutgers -4.0