Ben Burns
New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers
Sheets already beat Santana and the Mets at New York back in the spring. Now he gets to face them at home, where the Brewers are a healthy 41-24. With the Mets below .500 on the road (35-36) we're getting solid value with Milwaukee. Consider backing the home team.
Larry Ness
Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs
PICK: Houston Astros
The Cubs were on a seven-game winning streak heading into the weekend but then came up short on both Saturday (5-2) and Sunday (5-3) vs the Phillies. They open a three-game series on Labor Day against the Astros, who take a five-game winning streak into the game. While the Astros are just 32-37 on the road, the Cubs are 51-21 at Wrigley, outscoring opponents 5.79 RPG-to-4.03. However, the pitching matchup sure favors Houston. Roy Oswalt struggled in the season's first two months (he was 4-6 with a 5.38 ERA on June 4) but he's gone 8-3 with a 2.84 ERA over his last 13 starts (Houston is 9-4). The Cubs have been a great home team this year but Marquis hasn't contributed much to that success, as in 13 home starts, he's allowed 89 hits and 48 ERs over 75 innings for a 5.76 ERA. He's just 4-4 but the Cubs have gone 8-5 in his starts. That's in contrast to some good road pitching by Marquis, where his ERA is 3.12. Marquis has taken on the Astros six times these last two year and while he's 2-1 (Cubs are 4-2), he's hardly pitched well, allowing 22 ERs over 32.1 innings (6.12 ERA). Chicago left 19 runners on base in losing the final two games against the Phillies this weekend (had 22 hits but ALL were singles), and that won't "get it done" vs a pitcher like Oswalt, especially with the struggling Marquis on the mound. Take Houston.
The Miller Group
New York Yankees @ Detroit Tigers
PICK: Detroit Tigers
The Yankees have been absolutely brutal in series openers this year, just 17-28 heading into this one on Monday afternoon in Detroit.
After suffering back-to-back series losses against the Red Sox and Blue Jays, essentially ending their hopes of playoff run, we don't see how they get up for this non-divisional road game on Monday.
The Tigers can take some positives away from their series win over the Royals over the weekend. They've scored 20 runs over their last four games, finally showing some of what we expected to see throughout the '08 season.
Today we're expecting the Tigers to tee off on Yankees starter Sidney Ponson. The bloom is off the rose for Ponson, as he has allowed 15 hits and 11 earned runs over his last two starts, covering a span of only 6 2/3 innings. The Yankees have won just twice in his last seven starts. The fact that he is still even in the rotation tells you how dire the situation is on the mound for the Yanks right now.
Tigers starter Justin Verlander is trying to finish the season strong. He should come back with a nice outing today after getting roughed up by his arch nemesis, the Cleveland Indians, last time he took the mound. He had shut out his last two opponents heading into that start. Verlander has never lost to the Yankees in four career starts against them. He was 2-0 against them last season, with the Tigers outscoring the Yanks by a wide 24-5 margin.
Look for a couple of big innings at the plate for the Tigers this afternoon as they cruise to their third win in the last four games. Take Detroit (3*).
Lee Kostroski
Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals
PICK: Washington Nationals
In a dramatic turn of events the Nationals have won eight of the last ten games while scoring 6.2 runs per game. Washington is 7-2 in Tim Redding’s last nine starts and on the year Washington is 18-10 behind him including 10-5 in his home starts. Redding pitched extremely well against Philadelphia two starts ago, delivering six innings of 3-hit ball while allowing just one run.
The Phillies managed a split with the Cubs over the weekend but this series opener could be a letdown spot while facing a second straight road series. Philadelphia is hitting just .254 on the season with poor numbers away from home while the Nats have heated up to a .294 team average over the last ten games.
Philadelphia starter Kyle Kendrick owns a 5.91 road ERA and he has allowed 16 runs in his last four starts. Kendrick has just 13 more strikeouts than walks allowed on the season and the Phillies are 3-5 in his last eight starts, including 1-3 in road starts. Kendrick has also been terrible in day games with a 8.79 ERA and Philadelphia going 0-4.
Craig Trapp
Fresno State vs. Rutgers
Play: Fresno State ML
Enjoy your holiday with Craig's Free play winner. Take the underdog Bulldogs today. Actually surpised that Fresno is not favored many think they will be the next BCS crasher. Expect it to be close until late and then Fresno to pull away with there passing attack. SCORE FSU 31 - RUT 24
Info Plays
3* on San Francisco Giants +160
We’ll Play On - Any team (SAN FRANCISCO) - with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start, with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 7.00 over his last 5 starts. This is a 78-49 ML System hitting 61-4% and gaining 27.3 Units over the last 5 seasons. Also Play Against - Home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (COLORADO) - off 2 straight road losses vs. a division rival, with a losing record. This is a 35-20 ML System hitting 63.6% and gaining 26.7 Units over the last 5 seasons. Bet the Giants on the road.
Dustin Hawkins
Fresno State vs. Rutgers
Fresno State returns 16 starter from a team that went 9-4 in 07 and is ready to bust the BCS Bubble!! This team can score and is not afraid to play anyone and anytime. This could be Pat Hills best team, and will show that opening week!! Rutgers returns 15 starters from a team that was 8-5 in 07!!! Greg Schiano has tried to turn the Scarlet Knights into a football school and has had great success the last 3 years. He received his payday and is looking to move on to bigger and better things. This will be the weakest team the last 4 years and will have trouble getting to another Bowl!!!
Prediction Fresno State 38 Rutgers 21
Pick : Fresno State + 4
Oddswiz
Tennessee U vs. UCLA
Play: UCLA +7
Opinion Only - If you're considering a play on the Tenn-UCLA game you'd have to take a good long look at the UCLA side here. There are several fundamental, handicapping 101 factors here that dictate a close look at the Bruins. Let's start with the obvious. Here you have a +7.5 home dog kicking off the season before a prime time audience with a new coach that figures to bring UCLA to the top of the PAC 10 standings soon enough. (UCLA is 9-2 against the spread at home as a home dog since 2000 and 9-0 as 7+) Motivational factors are huge in college football when you have teams of similar talent levels. Sure, motivation won't get Army past a team like Florida, but it can be a great equalizer in a game of this magnitude. Another motivational factor is the ranked vs. unranked angle. The Vols come in ranked #18. An upset vaults UCLA into the Top 25. Can you say, Alabama over Clemson?
Then you have the "public angle". This game is one of the most lopsided games of the entire week with pretty much one way action on the Vols. Not sure what everyone see's in the Vols. This is a team that was 10-4 a year ago that could have easily been a .500 team. They certainly have their work cut out for them on the defensive side of things as they were burned for 40+ points 4 times last year. Unless they have made great strides defensively, the door is certainly open for a Norm Chow offense to find the end zone more than a couple of times making the +7.5 loom large here. I'll take Neuheisel and Chow over Fulmer any day.
I'm more interested in this game as an observer to see just how much work each team needs, particularly UCLA and Neuheisel. But for Pizza money, I'd take UCLA with all of their motivational edges and with the back door seemingly wide open against a Vol defense which needs to see some major improvements from a year ago.
King Creole
MIL (-105) vs NYM
Whenever you can get Milwaukee starter BEN SHEETS at bargain money (particularly at HOME), you want to jump right in. The Brewers EXCEL vs left-handed starting pitchers. They have gone gone 42-15 at home in their last 57 vs Southpaws.... and 23-6 in their last 29 OVERALL vs Southpaws. They love starting off a series, going 4-0 in their last 4 'Game Ones'. Also 21-7 after allowing 2 < runs... 36-17 off a win... 4-0 vs the NL East... and 7-0 when their opponent scored 7+ runs in their previous game.
SHEETS enters today's game after throwing a goose egg in his last start. He went 6 SHUTOUT innings on the road vs the Cardinals 5 days ago (a 12-0 team win). In five career starts vs the Mets since 2003, he's 4-1 overall. Also 6-1 in Game One of a series... 8-1 vs the NL East.... 7-1 on Mondays... 12-4 after allowing 2 < earned runs... and 9-3 off a quality start. Meanwhile, Johan Santana is 0-2 in two career starts vs the Brew-Crew since the 2005 season. ERA in those two starts is 7.71. He's also had some experience "In this Park'... and it's NOT good. His ERA here is 10.80. The Mets are a team that does not do well when starting off a series. They're 3-10 in their last 13 'Game Ones'. Also also struggle against the league's BEST pitchers... going 3-9 against starters with a YTD WHIP of 1.15 or less (like Ben Sheets: 1.14).
Carlo Campanella
Philadelphia starts Kyle Kendrick on the mound as a road Favorite on Monday knowing that they're already 5-1 at Washington this season. In his last two trips to the mound against Washington, Kendrick has won both games while holding them to just 2 Earned Runs in 12.7 Innings Pitched! Washington's just 19-30 against Division foes this season and everything points for them to drop another on MOnday.
7* Play On Philadelphia
Andre Gomes
PHILADELPHIA at WASHINGTON
In this game I like the possibility of this game being an high scoring affair. For that we need to have two things: good momentum for the teams and pitchers not offering security and I think we have both things in here. The Nationals are in their best moment of the season, as after losing 12 games in a row, they are in a six games winning streak, where they have been averaging 7 runs/game and a whooping batting average of .310! Today they will send Tim Redding (9-8, 4.54 ERA), who comes from a win in their last game against the Dodgers, allowing 3 runs and 8 hits in 6.0 innings, but it's important to take in consideration that he didn't strike out anybody. If we add this fact to his previous outing, Redding comes to this game with back to back quality starts and this season, Redding has been failing when he tries to achieve 3 consecutive quality starts.
On the other side, the Phillies will send Kyle Kendrick, who comes from back to back quality starts, allowing 1 and 2 runs in a total of 10 innings, but let's not forget that in his previous two games before these two quality starts, he allowed 6 and 7 runs, so Kendrick isn't consistent and I wouldn't be surprised if he has a letdown in here, especially as he is also 9-1 Over after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. Besides that, he has 8.79 ERA on four day games this season, which shows he has been struggling in such conditions. He is also 5-0 Over on his last 5 road starts.
The Phillies gained some momentum, as after losing b2b games against the Cubs, they won the last two, scoring 5 runs in each game. Today with the teams in a good offensive momentum, I expect them to continue their good offensive performances today. The Over is 6-1 on Nationals last 7 home games vs RHP and also 5-0 Over on their last 5 home games. So, with these facts, we have value on the over in here. Take it.
PLAY 1* Unit on Over 9 Runs
SAN FRANCISCO at COLORADO
We have arrived September, last month of the regular season and if there is a team which may be motivated with this, it's surely the Rockies. Everybody remember their amazing streak that the team had last season and this may be a motivation for the team, after all they enter September, almost in the same exact position they were last season around this time. Today they begin a series vs Giants and they will send the southpaw de la Rosa, who has been having an inconsistent season, however right now he seems to be in a great moment, being very consistent lately, allowing just 2-2-3-2 runs in his last 4 games and on his last 3 games, after being sent to the bullpen, de la Rosa had 2.50 ERA and 1.278 WHIP.
On the other side, the Giants will send the also southpaw Jonathan Sanchez, who will make his return after being in the DL. Before this, the Giants had lost their last 7 games with Sanchez on the field. I think the Rockies have an edge in the pitchers matchup, but that's not enough for a selection on them. The Giants were swept by the lowly Reds this weekend, losing yesterday by 3-9 and San Francisco is 7-20 against the money line after a loss by 6 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. The fact this will be a southpaw duel helps the Rockies, as they are 10-4 in their last 14 games vs LHP and the Giants are 0-5 in their last 5 road games vs LHP.
If we add the motivation of September, where Colorado went 20-8 against the money line last season, I think we have enough ingredients for a good win today by the Rockies.
Split the wager on:
PLAY 0.5* Units on Colorado Rockies ML
PLAY 0.5* Units on Colorado Rockies RL -1,5
Cajun-Sports
CFB Executive Club
3 STAR SELECTION
RUTGERS -4 over Fresno State
In a Labor Day matchup of 2 tough, physical football teams, the Scarlet Knights will host the Bulldogs, as both teams kick off their season. Last year coach Pat Hill got his team back to the postseason, and proceeded to take out Georgia Tech, 40-28, to claim the Humanitarian Bowl, while Greg Schiano beat up on Ball State, 52-30, in the International Bowl.
Fresno State quarterback Tom Brandstater is off a season in which he completed nearly 63% of his passes and hit for 15 touchdowns. He’ll no doubt be looking for TE Bear Pascoe, the only player on the team to be named to the All-WAC First Team. Running backs Ryan Matthews and Lonyae Miller have already shown a nose for the end zone after posting a combined 21 of the team's 34 rushing touchdowns a season ago.
Defense was the weakness of the team a year ago, and figures to be once again. Fresno State ranked a poor 85th in the nation a year ago with more than 181 ypg allowed on the ground. Finding a replacement for linebacker and top tackler Marcus Riley will not be an easy task in the least and already coach Hill has expressed a concern about where he's going to find leadership on the unit.
Last year's Scarlet Knights became just the eighth in program history to score at least 300 points in a season, so there's no doubt the squad knows how to find the end zone. Without star RB Ray Rice this season, Rutgers will be asking redshirt sophomore Kordell Young to shoulder much of the load, along with Mason Robinson. Quarterback Mike Teel is back, and helped direct the 18th-ranked offense in the nation to almost 450 ypg a season ago. He’ll have his favorite pass-catchers to throw to in senior Tiquan Underwood and junior Kenny Britt.
A season ago the pass defense for the Scarlet Knights was almost unparallel, ranked second in the Big East and fifth in the nation overall with a mere 170 ypg allowed. The team permitted only 327 ypg of total offense overall, which was third in the league and 17th in the country. With 8 starters back on the unit, Rutgers should be very tough on defense once again this season.
It appears to us that Rutgers is being overlooked by about everyone except the oddsmakers. Most of the talking heads on TV are picking Fresno State to win this game and touting them as a team to potentially crash the BCS party this season, which would require a perfect season. The Scarlet Knights have certainly noticed which team is the ranked one and realize they have the opportunity to end the Bulldog’s party before it even gets started.
While we are a big fan of Pat Hill, especially in the underdog role, we are also a Greg Schiano fan and like his team’s chances here.
Our database research shows some strong numbers in Rutgers favor. Fresno State is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 non-Saturday non-Bowl games, while the Knights are 5-0 ATS in their first lined home game the past 5 seasons under Schiano and 7-0 ATS in non-Saturday games vs. non-conference opponents since 2001.
Before a special non-Saturday home game, teams have started the season strong at home against a non-conference opponent.
Finally, we have an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM active here which states:
In Game 1, play ON a non-conference home team before a non-Saturday home contest in its next game.
Under these simple parameters, teams are a perfect 10-0 SU & ATS since 1994. The last team to qualify was Rutgers last season, as they blasted Buffalo, 38-3, as a 32-point favorite. While we don’t expect anything close to that, we do look for the Knights defense to hold down the Bulldogs offense, while Teel and his receivers do a lot of damage via the air to help the home team to a comfortable SU & ATS win.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: RUTGERS 37 FRESNO STATE 27
2 STAR SELECTION
Tennessee -7 over UCLA
In a season-opening Labor Day contest, the 18th-ranked Volunteers of the SEC pay a visit to the Bruins of the Pac-10. A victory over Wisconsin in the Outback Bowl enabled Tennessee to carry some momentum into the offseason and coach Phil Fulmer has plenty of talent in place, including 15 returning starters. UCLA finished a disappointing 6-6 last season and lost to BYU in the Las Vegas Bowl. Now, a new coaching staff is in place, headed by Rick Neuheisel.
The Jonathan Crompton era begins for the Vols on Monday, as the junior quarterback takes over the reins of the offense from Erik Ainge. Crompton has the size and arm strength to be extremely successful. He also has some big-time talent at the wide receiver position as is usually the case for Tennessee. The offensive line welcomes back all five starters to complement tailback Arian Foster. Last season, Foster racked up nearly 1,200 yards and 12 touchdowns and has a chance to finish as the top rusher in the history of the program. Tennessee averaged 32.5 ppg and just over 400 total ypg last season, and with so much talent on hand, even better things should be in store.
The Bruins were extremely inconsistent on the offensive side of the football last season, and with only four starters back for the 2008 campaign, it is likely the team could continue to struggle, especially with a new staff and system. The main issue is at quarterback, as the team thought Ben Olson and Pat Cowan would battle for the starting spot, but before the season could even start both players went down with injuries, and now 3rd-string junior Kevin Craft gets the call. Craft can’t expect a lot of help. Last year UCLA's rushing attack was decimated by injuries and production could be tough to come by in 2008 with no true starter in the backfield and a revamped offensive line.
UCLA relied heavily on the performance of its defense last year, but with only five starters back for the '08 season, it is unlikely that the unit will be as productive. The secondary is the biggest concern for UCLA, as the team returns only cornerback Alterraun Verner. We expect Crompton to take his shots and test the UCLA corners and safeties with some deep balls throughout the game.
We expect big things from UCLA eventually, but they are simply overmatched by superior talent in this opener. While the Bruins have been tough over the years as a home dog, the Volunteers have been a strong road favorite, especially when favored by single digits, as they are here.
We also note that in SEC vs. Pac-10 battles, the favorites have had the upper hand in recent seasons. Specifically, favorites of more than 1 point are 6-0 SU & ATS, winning outright by nearly 30 ppg, while crushing the spread by nearly 17 ppg on average. Last year, Tennessee was on the wrong side when they traveled to Cal and got mauled by the Bears in a pay-back game. The Vols will be looking to be the team doling out the punishment here.
The Bruins have a break after this game, so it’s likely they would just as soon get this game out of the way and get a bit healthier for their next outing. Non-conference home underdogs have historically not been ready to start the season with an extended break coming up next. This is demonstrated by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which states:
In Game 1, play AGAINST a non-conference home underdog of 4+ points before 9+ days rest.
Simple but perfect, as such teams are a dreadful 0-14 SU & ATS since at least 1983. UCLA is the next qualifying team and figure to come up short here. Pure adrenalin and home crowd should keep them in this game for at least a half, but we look for the Volunteers to wear them down, especially late, and win game going away.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: TENNESSEE 37 UCLA 24
Seabass
50* Mariners / Rangers Over
20* Mets / Brewers Under
10* Braves
Seabiscuit Insider...100 *Fresno State / Rutgers Over
200* Fresno State
20* Tennessee
Gold Medal Club
N.Y.Mets @ Milwaukee
PLAY ON: Milwaukee
Johan Santana has been nothing short of spectacular as of last, with an era of 2.23 in his last three starts.But we note, here he is an situation, where hi opponents tonight have feasted on lefties all season going 30-13.Knowing we have solid Ben Sheets is the closer in pulling the trigger on this play as we note that the Mets are 5-12 in this opening price ran
PureLock Sports
MLB
ST LOUIS @ ARIZONA 4:10 PM EST
PLAY ON: ARIZONA
CFB
FRESNO STATE @ RUTGERS 4:00 PM EST
PLAY ON: RUTGERS (-) PTS