Steven Budin
25 DIME PLAY
MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Northcoast
Monday Night Magic
2* UCLA/TENNESSEE Under 46
Marquee
FresnoSt./Rutgers Under 58
EZWINNERS
1 STAR: (966) NY YANKEES (+$140) over Detroit
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $140)
1 STAR: (954) MILWAUKEE (-$105) over NY Mets
(Listing Sheets only)
(Risking $105 to win $100)
The Hitman Guaranteed Selections
5000 LARGE DIAMOND BASEBALL DOMINATOR
Milwaukee w/Sheets +100
System Sports Guaranteed Selections
Cleveland w/Lee -175
The Indians are 6-0 in their last six versus the American League Central, the Indians are 6-0 in Lees last six starts during game one of a series and the Indians are 6-0 in Lees last six starts with five days of rest. Add it up and you have our 100% PERFECT 18-0 TRIPLE BASEBALL SYSTEM WINNER on CLEVELAND!
Colorado w/De La Rosa -160
The Rockies are 6-1 in De La Rosas last seven home starts, the Rockies are 5-0 in De La Rosas last five starts versus a team with a losing record and the Giants are 0-7 in Sanchezs last seven starts. Add it up and we have our 18-1 TRIPLE BASEBALL SYSTEM WINNER on Colorado!
Detroit w/Verlander -149
The Tigers are 12-3 in Verlanders last 15 starts vs. American League East and the Yankees are 2-8 in their last 10 during game 1 of a series. Add it up and you have our 20-5 DOUBLE BASEBALL SYSTEM WINNER on the TIGERS! This just in...Verlander has a 20-9 K?W RATIO in his last three starts compared to Ponson's negative 5/7 K/W RATIO in his last three starts!
ROOT
Chairman- UCLA
Millionaire- Brewers
Mr East
Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox
Pick: 5 units Boston Red Sox -1.5
The Red Sox have been victorious big at home all season, and every win matters now as they are chasing the Rays, and trying to hold off the Twins for the wildcard. The Red Sox are 23-4 at Fenway this season against teams with a losing record! Baltimore has really been skidding lately as they have put just 1 of their last 9 in the win column. Garrett Olsen might be 6-8, but his 6.38 ERA doesn't bode well for victorious at Fenway. On the season the Sox are 20-10 against lefthanders, and they are 7-1 against lefthanders at Fenway on teams with a losing record on the season. Red Sox blowout ahead!
Alex Smart
3 Units - Rutgers/Fresno St. Over 57.5
3 Units - UCLA +7.5
Dr Bob Leans
Tennessee (-7.5) 26 UCLA 21
Stats Matchup
Tennessee was a good team last season, but they weren’t as good as their 10-4 record would indicate. The Volunteers out played their opponents from the line of scrimmage by an average of just 5.7 yard per play to 5.5 yppl, they won both of their overtime games and were 4-0 on games decided by less than 7 points - so 10-4 would have been 8-6 had they split those 4 close games. Tennessee could be a better team this season, but they are unlikely to have as good a record as they had in 2007.
The Volunteers no longer have Erik Ainge at quarterback, but Jonathan Compton should be fine in his place. The biggest question for the offense concerns losing offensive coordinator David Cutcliffe, who is now the Duke head coach. Tennessee’s offense was consistently good under Cutcliffe in the 90’s and then struggled earlier this decade after he left to be the head coach at Mississippi. Cutcliffe returned to Knoxville to be the OC again after a horrible 2005 season (18.6 points per game) and he revitalized the attack the last two seasons. New offensive coordinator Dave Clawson has credentials, but there is concern that Cutcliffe’s departure could pose a problem for the Vols this season. Clawson prefers a more physical rushing attack, as opposed to Cutcliffe’s finesse offensive style, and the Clawson has a very good offensive line and good running backs to help implement his power running game. All 5 linemen that started the second half of last season return along with running backs Arian Foster (1193 yards at 4.9 ypr), Montario Hardesty, and Lennon Creer. Tennessee only averaged 4.5 yards per rushing play last season (against teams that would allow 4.7 yprp to an average team), but I expect them to be a better than average running team in 2008. Compton will be asked to manage the game and throw a lot of short passes and intermediate passes and he should be accurate enough to run that sort of attack effectively. All 3 starting receivers from last year’s team return, which should help the progress in learning a new system and I think Compton will post good numbers – although probably not as good as last season (5.7 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team).
While the offense probably won’t be quite as good early in the season, the defense should be better after posting mediocre numbers last season. Tennessee allowed 5.5 yppl in 2007 )to a schedule that would average 5.7 yppl against an average stop unit) and I see much better numbers this season despite having just 6 starters returning. The secondary should be fantastic with 3 starters returning from last season and a 2006 starter, S Demetrice Morley, ready to impress NFL scouts after missing last season due to academic issues. A strong secondary is the key to an improved defense that should be better against the run and the pass despite losing first round draft choice LB Jerod Mayo. This year’s defense is actually the most experienced unit that the Vols have had since their strong 2005 showing and I expect a significant improvement. Tennessee has had very good special teams the last couple of years and that should be the case once again this season with the key contributors returning. Punter Britton Colquitt has been suspended for the first 5 games, but backup P Chad Cunningham shouldn’t be much of a drop-off and would start for most teams.
Tennessee was my 20th rated team last season and I expect them to be a bit better this season thanks to what should be an improved offense. Of course, the loss of OC David Cutcliffe could be more damaging to the Vols’ offense than I’ve projected. We’ll just have to see how the new attack performs and the UCLA defense will certainly be a good test.
UCLA was supposed to have a breakout season in 2007, but injuries derailed a promising offense and the Bruins went just 6-7 and coach Karl Dorrell was without a job. Dorrell’s bad luck with injuries the last couple of seasons may have been a blessing for UCLA fans, as the Bruins have upgraded their coaching staff with head coach Rick Neuheisel and offensive coordinator Norm Chow joining outstanding DC DeWayne Walker. Injuries continue to plague the Bruins, but the program will soon be headed to a higher level under Neuheisel, who revived programs at Colorado and Washington earlier in his career.
UCLA was hit especially hard by injuries to the quarterback position, as starting quarterback Ben Olson was finally starting to show signs up living up to his vast potential when he was injured in a loss to Notre Dame. The starter in 2006, Patrick Cowen, was also injured for much of last season and sucked when he did play, and the Bruins had to turn to 3rd and 4th string quarterbacks, who combined to complete just 40 of their 100 pass attempts. Olsen was by far the most productive quarterback, as he averaged a solid 5.8 yards per pass play despite facing a schedule of teams that would allow just 5.2 yppp to an average quarterback. For the season UCLA’s pass attack was 0.4 yppp worse than average (5.0 yppp against teams that would allow 5.4 yppp), so losing Olson was a huge blow to the attack. Olson was set to return to the starting job this summer, but he was injured once more and will be out until at least late October. That leaves the quarterback position in the hands of transfer Kevin Craft, who completed a decent 57% of his 121 passes at San Diego State in 2006. Craft probably won’t be as good as Olson was last season, but he will be much better than the rest of last year’s UCLA quarterbacks and I expect the pass attack to be better than last year’s overall rating. Craft is not going to be horrible and the Bruins have some good young receivers to work with, so I’m sure Norm Chow will devise a scheme that works. The running backs look good with Kahlil Bell (795 yards at 5.6 ypr) returning and freshman Aundre Dean expected to add some pop to the backfield. The problem with the offense is a young and inexperienced offensive line that may struggle early in the season. Despite an improved running back position, better overall quarterback play, and a better offensive coordinator the UCLA offense will probably still be below average early in the season while the line comes together (although there is plenty of upside potential).
While the offense finds themselves, the defense should be good. UCLA loses their top 3 tacklers, their top pass rusher in Bruce Davis (12 sacks) and their top defensive back in Trey Brown (23 passes defended), so the Bruins’ defense certainly won’t be as good as it was last season (4.7 yards per play allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average team – adjusted for playing Oregon when Dennis Dixon was out). However, there is still plenty of talent for coach Walker to work with and I expect UCLA to still be very good against the run and better than average defending the pass thanks to emerging superstar CB Alterraun Verner, who defended 19 passes in 11 starts last season. UCLA also has outstanding special teams, with kicker Kai Forbath connecting on 25 of 30 kicks, including 5 for 5 from 50 yards plus, and punter Aaron Perez averaging a 37.6 net punt (35 net is average). UCLA will probably be about average in the return game, but their coverage teams should continue to be better than average. Special teams should continue to be a strength under the new coaching staff and UCLA looks like an underrated team that I rank about 30th in the nation.
While UCLA certainly has concerns on offense, the Bruins’ defense is good enough to slow down a Tennessee attack that is learning a new system and breaking in a new quarterback. My ratings only favor Tennessee by ½ a point in this game, so it looks like Tennessee’s misleading 10-4 record from last season has them overrated. UCLA has covered 11 consecutive times as an underdog thanks to their strong defense, but I’ll have to pass this gamed due to a negative 28-70-2 ATS game 1 situation that applies to UCLA and a 70-34-2 ATS game 1 situation that applies to Tennessee. Those situations still aren’t enough to keep me from leaning with UCLA.
RUTGERS (-5.5) 30 Fresno St. 28
Stats Matchup
Fresno State has been getting plenty of attention heading into this season as the non-BCS conference team that could make it to a BCS bowl after conference mates Boise State and Hawaii succeeded in doing so the last two seasons. I think the people touting Fresno State as a potential BCS buster are overlooking the fact that the Bulldogs continue to have defensive issues stopping the run – something that has plagued them in each of the last 5 seasons. Fresno has a very strong offensive unit, but it will take a good defense to get through Rutgers, Wisconsin, UCLA and Boise State unscathed. Fresno State had some injuries along the defensive line that led were partially to blame for their horrible run defense last season (5.8 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.8 yprp against an average team), but the Bulldogs allowed a combined 646 rushing yards at 6.0 yprp in weeks 2 and 3 before the injuries hit the defensive front. Texas A&M and Oregon would combine to average 6.2 yprp at home against an average team, so allowing those teams 6.0 yprp is actually decent. However, the graduation of WAC Defensive Player of the Year LB Marcus Riley and two of the defensive linemen that played those first few games last season makes it doubtful that Fresno will be even mediocre against the run this season. In fact, I project the Bulldogs to be 0.5 yprp worse than average defending the run, which is about what they’ve averaged over the last 5 seasons. While Fresno has struggled against the run, they do have a history of very good pass defense and I expect that to be the case this season with 3 of 4 defensive backfield starters returning and what should be another good pass rush. Overall, I rate the Bulldogs’ defense as average on a yards per play basis and they should pick off more passes than the national low total of 4 interceptions that they had last season.
Fresno’s defense doesn’t have to be too good when the Bulldogs have an offense that is loaded with talent at every position group. Tom Brandstater came into his own the second half of last season and ended the season with a very good 7.2 yards per pass play average (against teams that would allow 6.5 yppp to an average team). Brandstater should be even better this season with all of his top receivers back and the addition of 2006 top receiver Chastain West. Brandstater also has the benefit of having a great rushing attack to keep the pressure off of him, as the Bulldogs ran for 5.3 yprp last season (against teams that would allow 5.0 yprp) and should be even better this season with a more experienced offensive line and their top rusher back. Clifton Smith has moved on after running for 625 yards at 6.0 ypr, but Ryan Matthews ran for 866 yards at 6.0 ypr despite missing a few games. Fresno State will be a force offensively this season and Brandstater also does an excellent job of limiting his mistakes (just 5 interceptions last season).
What really made Fresno better than their stats was their special teams, which was the best in the nation last season once A.J. Jefferson took over kick return duties in game 4. Jefferson averaged 35.8 yards on his 26 kick off returns with 2 touchdowns. I doubt that he can duplicate those huge numbers and it will also be tough to average the 14.4 yards per punt return turned in by the departed Clifton Smith. Replacing the mediocre kicker and sub-par punter from last season shouldn’t be much of a task and Fresno should still rank among the best in the nation in special teams.
Fresno State has a great offense and very good special teams, but their soft run defense will likely cost them a couple of games (how do they beat Rutgers or Wisconsin with a bad run defense??) early in the season to end talk of a possible BCS game.
Rutgers went from 11-2 in 2006 to a disappointing 8-5 last season but they weren’t too much worse in reality. The 2006 Scarlet Knights were +11 in turnovers while the 2007 team was -6 in turnovers, which accounted for most of the difference. Aside from suddenly not being able to force turnovers (only 19 opponent’s turnovers compared to 31 in 2006), the Scarlet Knights had one other fatal flaw in 2007 – they couldn’t stop the run. Rutgers stuffed the run in 2006 (4.1 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yprp against an average team), but the Scarlet Knights surrendered 5.2 yprp in 2007 (against teams that would average 4.7 yprp). Rutgers continued their dominance against the pass (4.8 yppp allowed to teams that would average 6.1 yppp), but their overall defense was just 0.4 yards per play better than average last season. Rutgers doesn’t really have a defensive tackle that clog running lanes and their defensive starters average just 255 pounds, so I expect the Knights to continue to have trouble against the run. The secondary, however, returns 3 of 4 starters, including both cornerbacks, and they should be a dominant group once again. In fact, I think Rutgers will be even better against the pass this season than they’ve been the last two years and I rate the Knights at 0.7 yppl better than average defensively this season while they’ll most likely force more turnovers.
Rutgers will be without All-American RB Ray Rice, who ran for 2012 yards at 5.3 ypr last season. There doesn’t appear to be a back capable of filling Rice’s shoes and the offensive line doesn’t look quite as good, so I’ll call for below average rushing numbers for the Scarlet Knights this season. The good news about not having Rice to carry the ball is that the offense will probably throw the ball more often. Mike Teel averaged an incredible 8.7 yards per pass play last season (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback) and this top 4 receivers all return, including stars Tiquan Underwood (1100 yards at 16.9 ypc) and Kenny Britt (1232 yards at 19.9 ypc). Teel and company simply dominated bad pass defenses last season, so Rutgers’ passing numbers were inflated. However, Teel still averaged 7.4 yppp from week 5 on (the start of Big East play) against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average QB – so he still had an incredible season. Teel still threw too many interceptions (13 on 349 pass attempts, 3.7%), but he also was sacked only 7 times all season for the second straight year. Teel should continue to improve and Rutgers will have one of the best pass attacks in the nation again this season.
Rutgers has some issues on special teams, but they are a pretty good team overall that could become a very good team if the coaching staff can find a way to defend the run like they did in 2006. Rutgers looks like a top 25 team to me and I rate them 3rd in the Big East just ahead of Pitt.
My ratings favor Rutgers by 4 ½ points in this game, which is right around the number, but Fresno State is 27-8 ATS as an underdog in non-conference play, including 20-4 ATS as a dog of 5 points or more. I’ll favor the Bulldogs to cover based on that incredible team trend.
Investment Playmakers
20* National League Game of the Day
PHILLIES
Larry Ness
15* Situational GOW (won 12 of L17 MLB weeks / 87-58 since June 30)-Day
My 15* play is on the Mil Brewers at 2:05 ET. The Mets and Brewers meet in a three-game series at Miller Park. The Mets are 76-61 while the Brewers are 80-56 but it's the Mets who lead their division (by one game over the Phils) while the Brewers find themselves 4 1/2 games back of the Cubs in theirs. However, the Brewers do lead the wild card race by 4 1/2 games. Squaring off are two of the NL's top pitchers, Santana for New York and Sheets for Milwaukee. Recently, Santana's been the better pitcher. These two pitchers squared off way back on April 12 in Shea and Santana was "booed off the mound" but New York fans, as the Brewers beat the Mets, 5-3 (Santana allowed three HRs and four runs in 6.2 IP). Santana's pitched solidly all season for the Mets, although through the first three months of the season he was just 7-7 with a 3.01 ERA. He's really been tough over his last 10 starts though, despite being the victim of three blown leads by the Mets' bullpen during that span. He's 5-0 (team is 8-2) with a 2.24 ERA since July 9. As for Sheets, he has not been the same pitcher since the Brewers acquired CC Sabathia from the Indians. While Sabathia has gone 9-0 with a 1.43 ERA over his 11 starts with Milwaukee (team is 10-1), Sheets has been pretty mediocre. Sheets was 10-2 with a 2.77 ERA in 17 starts (team was 12-5) prior to the team getting Sabathia but since then, is just 2-5 with a 3.63 ERA over nine starts (team is 4-5). However, one can't ignore the fact that the Mets are a mediocre 35-36 on the road this year, while the Brewers are once again playing well at home (Milwaukee was 99-63 at home the last two seasons), going 41-24. More importantly for this game, the Brewers have been just terrific vs lefties in '08, going 31-14. That includes a 14-3 mark in day games vs lefties, going 9-2 vs lefties in home day games while averaging 7.2 RPG. Situational GOW 15* Mil Brewers.
Weekly Wipeout Winner (14-7 since June 17)-Total
My Weekly Wipeout Winner is on SD/LAD Over at 8:10 ET. Greg Maddux will face the Padres for the first time since they sent him to the Dodgers, giving the future Hall of Famer a shot at another postseason opportunity. That be said, don't expect the Padres to "lie down" for their ex-teammate, as there is surely no love lost between San Diego and LA. Now the Padres only hit .248 as a team, while averaging 3.88 RPG. However, a "typical" road game for the Padres in '08 has them averaging 4.18 RPG and their opponent averaging 5.45 RPG. That's an average of just over 9 1/2 runs per contest and why the Padres are actually 33-29-3 to the 'over' in road games this year. Maddux has pitched well in Petco Park this year with a 2.62 ERA but in 14 starts in any other big league stadium (14 in all, including starts for LA at Philly and Washington), Maddux has allowed 107 hits and 52 ERs over 78.1 innings for a 5.98 ERA. As for the Padres, they plan to activate Chris Young (4-4, 4.74 ERA) from the DL and give him his first start since a 16-7 win at Coors Field on August 10. He was 'ripped' for seven ERs and nine hits before leaving after four innings with a strained right forearm, which landed him on the DL. The man who last year allowed only 118 hits in 173 IP, has allowed 39 hits in 35.1 innings of seven road starts in '08, posting a 7.13 ERA. It's also worth noting that in three starts in Dodger Stadium the last two seasons, he's lasted only 11 innings, while allowing 21 hits and 12 ERs (9.82 ERA). There is no reason for this game to stay under the opening total of 7 1/2. Weekly Wipeout Winner on SD/LAD Over.
Prime Time Delight-Tenn/UCLA (6-1 start in CFB '08!)
My Prime Time Delight is on UCLA at 8:00 ET. Rick Neuheisel's head coaching debut at his alma mater has been surrounded by a series of injuries. His top-two QBs (Olson and Cowan) were lost in the off-season and his banged-up OL made the team's preseason camp look more like a MASH unit. As for Tennessee, the Vols come in off a 10-4 season in '07 but the '08 year ushers in the "Jonathan Crompton era." The junior QB takes over from Erik Ainge. He'll have a new OC, as David Cutcliffe has moved on. Taking over his former Richmond head coach, Dave Clawson. Crompton has the size and arm strength plus as always with Tennessee, he'll have some big- time talent at the WR position. Lucas Taylor had 73 catches for 1,000 yards and five TDs last season, while Austin Rogers and Josh Briscoe each added 56 catches (and a combined 10 TDs). All five starters return on the OL to complement TB Arian Foster, who ran for 1,193 yards (4.9 YPC) and 12 touchdowns last year. The Vols averaged 32.5 PPG and 401.5 YPG last year and may be better this year. However, the defense is not better and LY the team struggled, allowing 27.3 PPG, overall. In just five road games, the Vols were downright awful, allowing 43.2 PPG and 487.4 YPG. While the Bruins are far from 100 percent on the offensive side of the ball, Neuheisel has brought in Norman Chow as his OC and everyone remembers this guy from USC's recent "heyday." Kevin Craft will start at QB, a player who transferred from SD St and started five games for the Aztecs in '06. UCLA returns just five starters on the defensive side of the ball but the Bruins have played solidly the last two seasons. Last year, the team allowed only 285 YPG at home (116 YPG less than it did on the road) and maybe that's why UCLA is 16-3 SU and 15-4 ATS at home the last three seasons. UCLA has been a terrific underdog the last two years, going 10-1 in that role (has covered its last 10!). As a head coach, Neuheisel has always been good in the role of an underdog and there is no reason to think that will change here at UCLA. The Bruins are a perfect 6-0 the last five years as a home dog, including that memorable 13-9 (plus-11 1/2) upset over USC in the final game of the 2006 regular season. I wouldn't be surprised to see UCLA win this one SU, either. Prime Time Delight on UCLA.
BEN BURNS
ANNIHILATOR
I'm taking the points with UCLA. The Volunteers will be facing a Pac-10 team to begin the season for the third time in the past three years. Two years ago, they hosted Cal. Playing in the comfort of their own (noisy) stadium, the Vols jumped off to a huge early lead and coasted to a 35-18 victory. Last season, however, the Vols traveled to the West Coast. They found things much tougher on the road, as this time the Bears returned the favor with a convincing double-digit win of their own. The Vols are back on the West Coast for this year's opener and most are calling for an easy win. That's given us excellent value with what I expect to be a very determined home underdog. Yes, it's true that Tennessee is the more experienced team and it's also true that UCLA has already lost both Ben Olson and Pat Cowan to injuries. This team is still got plenty of talent though, more than most give them credit for. Additionally, those QB injuries happened way back in the spring which has given Kevin Craft and Chris Forcier plenty of time to work with the offense. While they've often struggled as favorites, the Bruins have been terrific as underdogs in recent years. In fact, they've gone a remarkable 15-1-1 ATS the past 17 times they were getting points. They've also gone an excellent 9-1 their last 10 home openers, including a 4-1 mark against BCS schools. Of course, this is a different team with different coaches. However, this is a very high quality group of coaches. Not only does Rick Neuheisel take over from Karl Dorrell but he's also got arguably the best set of coordinators in all of college. DeWayne Walker is back as defensive coordinator and he's done a great job. Meanwhile, back from the NFL, Norm Chow comes in to run the offense and he's had an outstanding collegiate career as an offensive coordinator. Indeed, he's coached 13 quarterbacks who rank among the top 30 in NCAA history for single-season passing yardage. It should also be noted that Neuheisel has done a very good job when he's first arrived at a school, showing that he's capable of getting through to players which were brought in before he got to the team. In fact, in stops at Colorado and Washington, those teams went a combined 38-10 in Neuheisel's first two years! Look for Neuheisel's Bruins to be much better expected tonight, as the Vols fall to 4-8-1 ATS their last 13 September road games. *Annihilator
BRANDON LANG
15 Dime - Fresno State
5 Dime - Tenn/UCLA Under
Comp - Red Sox -1.5
BEN BURNS
MAIN EVENT
I'm playing on Fresno State and Rutgers to finish OVER the total. Thus far, I've released two 'overs' and two 'unders' for the college football season. In both of the 'overs,' I noted that the total had fallen considerably from its opening number and that the extra few points were providing us with excellent value. Coincidentally, both those games happened to be ones which saw their final combined score finish above the closing number but below the opening one. Not only did we cash both tickets but it also provided a pair of early examples/reminders of the importance of line value, not just with sides but also with totals. Like most of the opening week totals, this one has also come down from it's opening number. As with the earlier two over plays, I feel this has provided us with excellent value for a game which I expect to be very high-scoring. Pat Hill's Bulldogs are an extremely experienced team and many are calling for them to score the upset here. While I'm not sure whether or not that will prove to be the case, I do expect the Bulldogs to score plenty of points. Looking back to last year and we find that the Bulldogs closed out the year by scoring 49, 37, 30, 21, 38, 30, 45, 30 and 40 points (40-28 win in their bowl game) over their past nine games. That's greater than 35.5 points per game, reaching the 30 mark in eight of those nine games. Why am I talking about last year's offense? Because this year's unit is almost identical with a whopping 10 returning offensive starters. Greg Schiano's Scarlet Knights also know how to put the ball in the end zone. Yes, Ray Rice is gone and he had an outstanding career here. However, QB Mike Teel returns and he's loaded with receiving weapons. Keep in mind that Teel helped led the Knights to almost 450 yards of total offense per game last season, the 18th best mark in the nation. The Knights closed out the regular season by combining with Louisville for 79 points and then proceeded to combine with Ball State for 82 (52-30!) in their bowl victory. Rutgers has seen the OVER go 4-1-1 the last six times it was favored by six points or less. Fresno has seen the OVER go 6-2 the last eight times it was listed as an underdog of six points or less and 10-4 the last 14 times it was getting points overall. Look for those numbers to improve as this one turns into a shootout. *Main Event
ANNIHILATOR
I'm taking the points with UCLA. The Volunteers will be facing a Pac-10 team to begin the season for the third time in the past three years. Two years ago, they hosted Cal. Playing in the comfort of their own (noisy) stadium, the Vols jumped off to a huge early lead and coasted to a 35-18 victory. Last season, however, the Vols traveled to the West Coast. They found things much tougher on the road, as this time the Bears returned the favor with a convincing double-digit win of their own. The Vols are back on the West Coast for this year's opener and most are calling for an easy win. That's given us excellent value with what I expect to be a very determined home underdog. Yes, it's true that Tennessee is the more experienced team and it's also true that UCLA has already lost both Ben Olson and Pat Cowan to injuries. This team is still got plenty of talent though, more than most give them credit for. Additionally, those QB injuries happened way back in the spring which has given Kevin Craft and Chris Forcier plenty of time to work with the offense. While they've often struggled as favorites, the Bruins have been terrific as underdogs in recent years. In fact, they've gone a remarkable 15-1-1 ATS the past 17 times they were getting points. They've also gone an excellent 9-1 their last 10 home openers, including a 4-1 mark against BCS schools. Of course, this is a different team with different coaches. However, this is a very high quality group of coaches. Not only does Rick Neuheisel take over from Karl Dorrell but he's also got arguably the best set of coordinators in all of college. DeWayne Walker is back as defensive coordinator and he's done a great job. Meanwhile, back from the NFL, Norm Chow comes in to run the offense and he's had an outstanding collegiate career as an offensive coordinator. Indeed, he's coached 13 quarterbacks who rank among the top 30 in NCAA history for single-season passing yardage. It should also be noted that Neuheisel has done a very good job when he's first arrived at a school, showing that he's capable of getting through to players which were brought in before he got to the team. In fact, in stops at Colorado and Washington, those teams went a combined 38-10 in Neuheisel's first two years! Look for Neuheisel's Bruins to be much better expected tonight, as the Vols fall to 4-8-1 ATS their last 13 September road games. *Annihilator
PERSONAL FAVORITE
I'm laying the price with DETROIT. New York was beaten by Roy Halladay (no shame in that!) yesterday afternoon while Detroit rallied to knock off the Royals. I expect the Tigers to carry that positive momentum into this afternoon's contest. They've got the added incentive of playing at home in front of a holiday crowd and knowing that they can be the team responsible for really putting the final nail in the Yankees' playoff coffin. It's on the mound where the Tigers should enjoy their biggest advantage. Justin Verlander has admittedly been inconsistent on the season. However, he's capable of being an excellent pitcher when he's on his game and he's been mostly sharp of late. Despite struggling vs. Cleveland last time out, he's still 2-1 with an excellent 2.41 ERA his last three starts. Note that Verlander has been better in his daytime starts than he has been in the evening. In fact, opposing hitters are batting just .193 against him in eight daytime starts with Verlander averaging nearly seven innings per start in those outings. Additionally, note that Verlander has made four career starts against the Yankees and that the Tigers have won all four of them. The most recent of those games came almost exactly one year ago (8/27/07) and the Tigers won by a score of 16-0! The Yankees were originally scheduled to go with Ponson, who has been horrible lately and who has also been horrible vs. the Tigers. However, it appears that they have now decided to go with rookie Scott Patterson instead. Patterson has only made one big league relief appearance. It didn't go particularly well as it left him with a 6.75 ERA and 2.25 WHIP. Either way, look for Verlander to outpitch Patterson (or Ponson) as the Yankees' fading playoff chances take another hit and they fall to 2-8 their last 10 games at Detroit.
Main Event
Fresno St. / Rutgers Over
Mike Rose
5 Units Astros/Cubs over 8.5
2 Units SF +160