SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Milwaukee (23-14) at St. Louis (21-16)
The red-hot Brewers go for a series sweep of the Cardinals at Busch Stadium, with Milwaukee’s Braden Looper (3-2, 4.70 ERA) slated to oppose Kyle Lohse (3-2, 4.25) in an N.L. East clash.
Friday’s series opener was rained out, but the Brewers have since posted victories of 1-0 on Saturday and 8-2 on Sunday to run their winning streak to five in a row. Additionally, Milwaukee has won 11 of its last 13 and is 19-5 in its last 24 outings, going 9-2 on the road during this surge. The Brew Crew are on further streaks of 5-1 as an underdog, 13-3 against teams with a winning record and 9-2 versus N.L. Central foes.
St. Louis has now dropped six of its last eight games (all against the N.L. East) and nine of its last 13, and the team is 1-6 in its last seven against winning teams. Still, the Redbirds sport positive streaks of 18-6 at Busch Stadium and 21-7 as a home chalk.
In taking the first two meetings of the season series, Milwaukee continues to own this rivalry, going 9-1 in the last 10 clashes overall and 8-1 in its last nine games in St. Louis.
Looper earned an 8-6 home victory in his most recent outing Wednesday against the Marlins, despite surrendering five earned runs in six innings. Since starting the season 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in his first four starts (all Milwaukee wins), Looper is 1-2 with a 7.71 ERA in his last three outings. The veteran right-hander is 1-1 with a 4.82 ERA in two road starts in 2009.
Lohse’s season has taken the same arc as Looper’s, as the right-hander went 3-0 with a 1.97 ERA in his first five starts, but he’s since given up 13 runs (all earned) on 16 hits (three home runs) over 10 1/3 innings in his last two outings, losing 6-1 to the Phillies at home and 8-3 to the Reds on the road. Despite the loss to Philadelphia, Lohse is still 3-1 with 3.20 ERA in four starts at Busch Stadium.
Looper, who pitched for St. Louis from 2007-2009, has faced his former mates 16 times, all in relief, and he’s delivered 17 consecutive scoreless innings while notching three saves. Meanwhile, Lohse is 3-3 with a 5.22 ERA in 11 career appearances (10 starts) against the Brewers. Last year, Lohse faced Milwaukee three times and posted a 4.26 ERA, with St. Louis losing all three games.
Although Sunday’s game barely crept over the posted total, the under is still 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings between these division rivals and 6-2-1 in the last nine battles at Busch Stadium. Also, St. Louis carries “under” trends of 4-1 overall (all against divisional opponents) 4-2 at home, 4-1 on Monday and 5-1 as a favorite. Finally, the Brewers are on “under” streaks of 7-3 as a road underdog and 6-1 in the third game of a series, though the over is 5-1 in their last six road games and 4-0 in their last four on Monday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
N.Y. Mets (21-16) at L.A. Dodgers (26-13)
After completing a successful first road trip without suspended slugger Manny Ramirez, the Dodgers return home to greet the Mets in the opener of a three-game series. Tim Redding is scheduled to make his 2009 debut and be matched up against L.A.’s Randy Wolf (2-1, 2.77).
The Dodgers started their six-game journey with a 5-3 loss at Philadelphia, but rebounded to win four of the last five contests, including Sunday’s 12-5 rout of the Marlins in which young left-hander Clayton Kershaw took a no-hitter into the eighth inning. Despite not having Ramirez, Los Angeles averaged 6.3 runs per game on the trip. Joe Torre’s club enters this contest on a slew of positive runs, including 23-10 overall, 40-14 at Dodger Stadium (14-3 this season), 17-6 following a victory, 21-10 on Mondays and 35-16 as a favorite.
New York came up short in its attempt for a four-game weekend sweep in San Francisco, losing 2-0 to the Giants on Sunday night to snap a three-game overall and five-game road winning streak. The Mets remain on impressive runs of 11-3 overall, 4-0 after a loss, 23-10 as an underdog and 13-4 against the N.L. West.
New York won four of the final five meetings against the Dodgers last year and is 9-5 in the last 14 head-to-head battles, including 4-3 at Dodger Stadium.
Wolf was fantastic in Wednesday’s contest in Philadelphia, scattering a run on three hits and three walks over six innings while striking out eight en route to a 9-2 road victory that snapped a sting of five consecutive no-decisions. Los Angeles is 8-2 in Wolf’s last 10 home starts and 8-3 in his last 11 as a favorite, including his first go-round with the team in 2007. This season, the veteran southpaw has yet to record a decision in three home outings, posting a 2.60 ERA in 17 1/3 innings.
Wolf has made 28 career starts against the Mets, going 11-5 with a 3.34 ERA. The 28 starts and 11 victories are the most for Wolf against any opponent, as are his 149 strikeouts and 175 innings.
Redding’s season has been delayed because of a shoulder injury. Last year with the Nationals, he went 10-11 with a 4.95 ERA in 33 starts, including 4-4 with a 4.23 ERA in 15 road games. The right-hander is 1-3 with a 5.64 ERA in six career appearances (four starts) against the Dodgers. However, the one victory came last year when he was with Washington and yielded three runs (all solo homers) in six innings of a 5-4 home win.
New York is riding “over” streaks of 9-2 overall, 6-2-1 on the road, 35-16-8 as an underdog, 24-9-4 as a road pup, 6-1-1 against the N.L. West and 6-0 when facing a southpaw starter. Similarly, the Dodgers are on “over” stretches of 16-5-1 against right-handed starters, 8-3-1 versus the N.L. East, 26-12-3 on Monday and 5-0 when Wolf faces N.L. East foes. Lastly, the over is 9-3-1 in the last 13 series meetings between these clubs at Dodger Stadium.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. DODGERS and OVER
Scott Spreitzer
Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals
The Washington Nationals are out of pitchers! This is a bad team in the best of times. But injuries and some schedule challenges have created a mess in the rotation. Young Ross Detwiler has been called up from Double-A to start for the Nats tonight against Pittsburgh. He may have a bright future, but I don’t believe he’s ready to thrive just yet. And, even if he makes a decent debut, he’s only going to go 5-6 innings anyway, then that worn down and battered Washington bullpen has to come into the game. Pittsburgh can either win it early, or win it late. There are a lot of ways to beat the Nats! Ross Ohlendorf of Pittsburgh has a nice 3.77 ERA this season and a strong WHIP of 1.07. Ohlendorf has only allowed 9 walks in 43 innings! He’ll be leading a rejuvenated team that just busted out of a slump by taking two of three from Colorado. The Pirates are getting back on track and they’re facing a tired (off a West Coast trip and a divisional series), bad team without any pitching. I’ll gladly take the better team, better starting pitcher, and better bullpen at this price.
Play on: Pittsburgh
Craig Trapp
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees -1.5
Another MLB Top Play won for Handicapper Craig Trapp yesterday with his Run Line Game of week (TOR -110) winning easy yesterday. Craig's free play lost with the Mets not being able to push any runs across and losing a close one. Today we will sweep the board no problem.
Records
Minnesota Twins 18-20, 4-11 away (Perkins 1-2, 4.27 ERA)
New York Yankees 20-17, 9-7 home (Pettitte 3-1, 4.00 ERA)
Betting Trends
-Twins are 1-10 in their last 11 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
-Twins are 0-5 in their last 5 games on grass.
-Yankees are 5-1 in Pettittes last 6 starts as a favorite.
-Yankees are 6-2 in Pettittes last 8 starts.
Love taking teams that win in heroic fashion and the Yankees have done it three games in a row. The first three games of the series the Yankees have come back in each to win in walk off fashion. Yankees have won seven straight home games over Minnesota and 22 of 25 meetings in New York. Today the Twins will be down emotionally and the Yankees will dominate with Pettitte who is due for a shut out. The Yankees offense has been good since AROD has came back and today they will knock around Perkins starting for Minnesota. EASY BIG WIN on Monday!! SCORE NYY 6 - MIN 1
Matt Fargo
Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners
PICK: Los Angeles Angels
The Angels were swept in Texas over the weekend which halted a very solid run of 12-4 in their previous 16 games leading up to that three-game series. The Rangers are playing great right now so the sweep cannot be considered all that surprising. Los Angeles now gets to face a team that is going the opposite directions. Despite a series win against the Red Sox, the Mariners have cooled off considerably following a very hot start. Seattle is just 6-14 over its last 20 games and it has not won back-to-back games since April 24th and 25th as it has gone 0-6 in its last six games following a victory. The Angels send John Lackey to the hill who will be making his first start of the season. He did toss two pitches on Saturday before getting ejected for throwing at Ian Kinsler but that certainly does not constitute a real start. Lackey had spent six weeks recovering from a strained right forearm before making a couple rehab stats prior to getting back with the big club. He is 10-8 in his career against the Mariners with a 3.90 ERA in 22 starts and he is 7-5 at Safeco Field with a 2.79 ERA in 13 starts. He did not face the Mariners last season and that actually helps his situation here. He faces off against Jarrod Washburn who has been solid for the most part in the early part of the season. He has a very good 3.11 ERA and 1.14 WHIP though seven starts but the Mariners are just 3-4 in those games. Seattle is averaging 3.6 rpg so that is part of the problem for a lack of wins. His worst start this season came against the Angels which was no surprise as he has struggled against his former club. He is 5-6 with a 4.62 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 12 starts including allowing six runs in 5.1 innings back on April 26th. The Angels are 24-8 in Lackey’s last 32 road starts against a team with a losing record while the Mariners are 5-14 in Washburn’s last 19 home starts. The Angels are 6-0 in Lackey’s last six starts against the Mariners and they have won eight of the last 11 meetings in Seattle. 3* Los Angeles Angles
Matt Rivers
For Monday let's play a rare total and go low between Arizona and Florida.
I definitely do not love totals as they are crap shoots and there is absolutely no rocket science going on here but the way Jon Garland has been pitching on the road and the way his Diamondbacks don't really hit a lick I can't help but believe that this thing has 3-2 written all over it.
Ricky Nolasco is not great and without a doubt has been struggling mightily of late but the Florida righthander should feel fairly comfortable on his home mound and is up against an offense that is just not very good right now. Sure Arizona may be a force to reckon with eventually as guys like Upton, Drew, Young and others are solid young players but many more times than not collectively this group, at this point, just does not score runs.
Florida obviously jumped out of the gate with that 11-1 start to the season but ever since the Marlins have been a bad team. Not all of that at all has been due to the offense however the bats are far from clicking right now and up against Garland should not exactly bust out. Hanley Ramirez is a superstar and can hit anybody but the Arizona starter should be extrenmely fresh after getting rained out in Atlanta on Sunday and continue the success on the highway.
Either team being able to muster four runs today seems like a bit much to me in this spot so therefore I will endorse that under!
Bobby Maxwell
L.A. Angels at SEATTLE -110
Tonight's FREE winner is on the diamond as we play the Mariners at home taking on the Angels.
It's being reported the Angels are going with veteran ace Jon Lackey in this one instead of Matt Palmer. Lackey threw just two pitches in his first start of the season on Saturday before being ejected in Texas for plunking Ian Kinsler of the Rangers.
Lefty Jarrod Washburn (3-2, 3.11 ERA) is on the mound for the Mariners, who have won four of six from the Angels this season. Washburn is 2-0 at home with a 2.25 ERA and he's got a 2.70 ERA in his last three outings. After the Mariners won his first three of the season, they've lost his last four outings, even though in two of those games Washburn allowed one earned run.
He's already seen the Angels twice and beaten them 11-3 in Seattle but losing 8-0 in Anaheim.
The Angels make the trek from Texas to Seattle for this one and neither of these two squads have played very well. Look for Washburn to do enough on the hill and get just enough run support to score the home victory.
Play the Mariners tonight!
2♦ SEATTLE
JIM FEIST
COLORADO ROCKIES / ATLANTA BRAVES
Take ATLANTA BRAVES
While neither of these clubs looks to be a real threat in their respective divisions, the Braves 18-18 record has them just three games behind the Mets. The Braves are hitting pretty good as a team with a .261 team BA but have lacked the power of past teams as they fourth from the bottom in HR's in the NL. The Rockies have no lack of power, clubbing 47 round trippers this year for third in the NL. The problem for the Rockies has been pitching, where the team ERA is a poor 4.70. Only Jorge de la Rosa has an ERA below 4.00 among the starters. Today's starter, Jason Marquis, is 4-3 with a 5.40 ERA. The Braves counter with Derek Lowe, who has been excellent since coming over from the Dodgers in the off season. Lowe is 5-1 with a 3.80 ERA. Both teams are slow out of the gate, but we have a big difference in pitching staffs, especially with Lowe on the mound. Take the Braves and lay the price on Monday.
DAVE COKIN
MILWAUKEE BREWERS ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Take MILWAUKEE BREWERS
The Cardinals are having all kinds of trouble generating offense right now. Aside from Pujols, there's not much to fear from the Redbirds, especially with Ludwick injured. The Brewers have taken over first place in the division this weekend, and would love to finish off the sweep tonight. Braden Looper has worked 17 career innings vs. St. Louis without giving up a run. He's not in good form right now, but neither is Kyle Lohse. The better team currently is the Brewers and they're the value at the price.
DUNKEL
Chicago White Sox at Toronto
The Blue Jays look to finish the sweep and build on their 8-1 record in their last 9 games as a favorite between -150 and -200. Toronto is the pick (-165) according to Dunkel, which has the Blue Jays favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-165).
Game 901-902: Pittsburgh at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Ohlendorf) 15.301; Washington (Detwiler) 14.251
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Washington (-115); 10
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+105); Over
Game 903-904: Arizona at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Haren) 14.074; Florida (Nolasco) 15.239
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+120); Under
Game 905-906: Colorado at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Marquis) 14.188; Atlanta (Lowe) 14.023
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+160); Under
Game 907-908: NY Mets at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Redding) 15.571; LA Dodgers (Wolf) 16.719
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-140); Under
Game 909-910: Chicago White Sox at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Richard) 13.400; Toronto (Richmond) 16.088
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 2 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-165); 10
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-165); Under
Game 911-912: Oakland at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Gallagher) 15.731; Tampa Bay (Niemann) 14.517
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+130); Over
Game 913-914: Minnesota at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Perkins) 15.584; NY Yankees (Pettitte) 17.268
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-165); 10
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-165); Under
Game 915-916: LA Angels at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Lackey) 14.997; Seattle (Washburn) 16.007
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-115); Over
Game 917-918: Milwaukee at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Looper) 14.961; St. Louis (Lohse) 15.099
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-130); Over
NHL DUNKEL
Carolina at Pittsburgh
The Penguins open the series looking to build on their 7-3 record in their last 10 playoff games as a favorite between -150 and -200. Pittsburgh is the pick (-200) according to Dunkel, which has the Penguins favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-200).
Game 3-4: Carolina at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 12.332; Pittsburgh 14.429
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-200); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-200); Under
Red Dog Sports
Chicago White Sox at Toronto
Play Toronto
Look for Toronto to win again at home on Monday afternoon. Monday is Victoria Day in Canada and there should be a big crowd to watch this game. Clayton Richard starts for the White Sox and his ERA is 10.80 in his last 3 starts. Scott Richmond has pitched well this year but has struggled in his last 3 (6.48 ERA) but the Blue Jays are a good home team.The White Sox are 1-8 in their last 9 on the road and 1-10 in the last 11 at Toronto. The Blue Jays are 6-2 in Richmond's last 8 starts and 9-3 in their last 12 home games. Look for Toronto to win!
LT Profits
Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals
Kyle Lohse of the St. Louis Cardinals and Braden Looper of the Milwaukee Brewers are both coming off of back-to-back bad outings, but we look for both to return to their normal forms tonight, keeping this game Under.
Looper in particular should pitch well as he pitched for the Cardinals last season, and is thus very familiar with the strength and weaknesses of the St. Louis batters, giving him a bigger edge than usual for a pitcher facing a team for the first time. He had been in fine form prior to his last two clunkers, posting four Quality Starts in his first five outings this year, and we see no reason why he cannot regain that form here.
The year Lohse is having has virtually mirrored that of Looper. Lohse began the season by allowing two earned runs or less in four of his first five starts, including two scoreless outings, before suddenly getting roughed up by the Phillies and Reds in his last two starts. He has allowed three earned runs or less in five of his last six starts vs. Milwaukee, so this seems like a nice spot to get back on track.
Finally, the Cardinals are hitting just .227 as a team while averaging a paltry 3.40 runs over their last 10 games, so as long as Lohse continues his past success vs. the Brewers, this Under should be in good shape.
Pick: Brewers / Cardinals Under 9
Jimmy The Moose
Arizona Diamondbacks at Marlins
Prediction: Marlins
Two struggling teams meet-up in Florida tonight. Both clubs have lost 7 of their last 10 games. Arizona is 1-5 in their last 6 games as a favorite. In their last 6 opening games of a series they are 1-5. The Marlins are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road % below .400. In their last 11 home games where the total is betwee 7.0-8.5 the Marlins are 9-2. Arizona has lost Haren's 2 starts vs. Florida, while the Marlins have won Nolasco's 4 starts vs. the D'Backs. Arizona is 2-7 in the last 9 meetings. Play on the Florida Marlins +.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Milwaukee Brewers +115
The Brew Crew are on fire, having won 5 in a row, 11 of 13, and 19 of 24. I look for them to pull off the sweep against the struggling Cards this evening, who has dropped 4 of 5 and 9 of 13. Both Looper and Lohse have struggled over their last few starts, but I give the edge to Looper here knowing the hitting tendencies of his former mates. Plus, Lohse has not made great success against the Brew Crew with an ERA of 5.31 and a WHIP of 1.382. The Cards are a poor 3-11 against the money line in home games when playing on Monday over the last 3 seasons and just 1-10 in Lohse's last 11 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. The Brewers have had St. Louis' number, beating the Cards in 9 of the last 10 meetings overall and 8 of the last 9 in St. Louis. The Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road underdog and 14-3 in their last 17 vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Beer Makers tonight.
Jorge Gonzalez
Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays (26-14) are proven that they are not a flash in the pan when they look to finish their four game sweep of the Chicago White Sox. (15-21). The Sox will look to Clayton Richard (0-0, 5.40) to the mound to take on Scott Richmond (4-2, 4.28 ERA). The Blue Jays will be looking for their 13th straight win at Rogers Centre and their 14th in their 16th overall meetings in the series. White Sox Manager Ozzie Smith was back in Chicago for his son's graduation but will be back to manage the team in today's afternoon game. The Blue Jays received another solid performance from Roy “Doc” Holiday, in their 8-2 victory on Sunday. Holiday earned his with win on the season. On the season, the Blue Jays offense continues its hot ways by the leading the Majors with 322 runs. The Blue Jays have taken five of six games this season against the White Sox out scoring them 38-19. Take Toronto to finish the sweep.
BIG AL
Oakland at Tampa Bay
Play: Tampa Bay
Our Monday night MLB selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays on their home turf at Tropicana Field over the Oakland Athletics.How well have the Rays been playing on this current home stand? So well that they can even afford to bat a pitcher in the third spot in their lineup. In a bizarre situation on Sunday, Tampa manager Joe Maddon made an error on his lineup card when he listed both Evan Longoria and Ben Zobrist as third basemen with no DH in the lineup.That error was pointed out after Zobrist took the field (and Longoria did not because he thought he would be the DH), so it meant that Longoria (who normally bats third) had to be replaced in the lineup by starter Andy Sonnanstine. After going hitless in his first two at-bats, Sonnanstine actually provided an RBI double in the fourth inning which helped his team win the game and enabled Tampa to take three of the four vs. Cleveland.Oakland has been having no such offensive luck lately. In fact the A's were embarrassed in a three-game sweep at the hands of the Tigers this weekend, with the combined score for the series 34-8.Oakland's dreadful road record now stands at 5-11. Despite taking two of three against the Rays in the Bay Area earlier in the season, Oakland has lost five of the last six games in this series when playing at Tropicana Field. And it doesn't help its chances that it sends righthander Sean Gallagher to the mound this evening. He's a spot starter with a career 6-8 record and 5.45 ERA. Take the Rays.