EZWINNER'S FREE SELECTION
(910) Toronto Blue Jays -$156
(Listing Richmond and Richard)
The White Sox are struggling and their starting pitcher Clayton
Richard will be making his second start of the season. He
didn't have much success in his first start nor did he have much
success when he was in the bullpen. I look for the Blue Jays to
stay hot. Lay the juice with Toronto.
2009 Free Selections Record 73-61 (54.5%)
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Free Selection from Totals4U
Monday's free selection: Oakland/Tampa Bay over 9 1/2
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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
263 - 172 run 60 % 8-2 last 10
Mon Florida Marlins
SUN SF Giants TY Sat TY Boston Red Sox
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Free Selection from Mike Wynn
Free Play: MLB Washington w/Detwiler -110 Over Pittsburgh
8)
Vernon Croy
Oakland Athletics vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and the Rays are the superior overall team here Monday night who are 4-1 in their last 5 games. The Athletics are just 1-7 in their last 8 games on turf and they are also just 0-6 in Gallagher's last 6 starts following a team loss. Oakland is just 5-16 in their last 21 games after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game and the Athletics relievers just posted and ERA of 8.10 in their 3 game series against the Tigers where Oakland went 0-3. The Rays are 4- in Niemann's last 5 starts and Oakland has never faced Niemann before so that is a huge advantage for the Rays starter. Oakland is just 1-5 in their last 6 trips to Tampa Bay and Niemann has not pitched past the 6th inning in his 7 starts this season but he has only allowed 2 earned runs or less in 5 of his last 6 starts. Take the Tampa Bay Rays as my MLB Free Play for Monday Night.
Ben Burns
Carolina Hurricanes @ Pittsburgh Penguins
PICK: Pittsburgh Penguins
The Penguins are also very expensive for today's opener, even more so than the Wings were yesterday. While the Pens don't quite qualify as one premium selections, I do believe that they'll also find a way to come up with the victory. (Note that those who have followed my complimentary opinions know that we've done very well over the longterm with favorites in this range.)
Both teams have had roughly an equal amount of rest. The Hurricanes last played on 5/14. The Penguins closed off Washington a day earlier, on 5/13. That figures to work in Pittsburgh's favor. The Pens were 6-3 (+2.6) this season, when playing with three or more day's rest in between games. Conversely, the Canes were just 3-7 (-5) in that situation.
With this evening's over/under line listed at 5.5, note that the Pens have gone a profitable 34-12 (+15.2) the past few seasons, when playing at home with a total of 5.5. During the same stretch, the Canes were just 20-26 when playing a road game with a total of 5.5.
Yes, the Canes won both 2009 meetings with the Pens. However, the Hawks had also won the last two regular season meetings with the Wings and we saw what happened to them. Note that the Pens are a profitable 71-55 (+19) the past few seasons when facing a team which defeated them in the previous meeting.
The Pens were 4-1 in the Conference Finals last season, including a 4-2 win as -220 favorites in that series opener. I believe that they'll prove to be the stronger team in this series. Having already seen the rival Wings (the team that beat them in the Finals last year) win their opener, look for the Pens to deliver a huge effort and for them to also start things off with a victory. Consider Pittsburgh.
Larry Ness
Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals
PICK: St. Louis Cardinals
The Cards will try to avoid the dreaded home sweep tonight against the Brewers. St Louis lost 1-0 on Saturday and then 8-2 on Sunday to Milwaukee and has now totaled just 10 runs in its last five games since OF Ryan Ludwick went down with a strained right hamstring. Ludwick (.274, 8 HRs / 26 RBI) had been the Cards' second-most productive player behind Pujols. The Milwaukee offense hasn't had similar problems, as the Brewers have averaged 6.5 RPG while winning 11 of their last 13 games. Since a 4-9 start, the Brewers are now 19-5 and with an overall 23-14 mark, lead the NL Central by 2 1/2 games (over the Cubs). However, winning all three in St Louis, will be no easy task. Braden Looper will get the call for the Brewers against his former teammates. Looper was chosen by the Cardinals in the 1996 draft but was traded in 1998 after appearing in only four games for them. He spent the next seven years as a reliever with the Marlins and Mets but was signed with the Cards in 2006, just in time to help them win the World Series that year as set-up man. He became a full-time starter in 2007 and 2008. The Brewers signed Looper to a one-year deal in February, hoping he could help a rotation which lost CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets to free agency. Looper got off to an excellent start in 2009, going 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in his first four starts but he's 1-2 with a 7.71 ERA in three May starts. The Cards counter with Kyle Lohse. Lohse was 27-19 back in 2002 and 2003 with the Twins but was a sub-500 pitcher over the next four years. However, he had a breakout season in 2008, going 15-6 with a 3.78 ERA (team was not quite as good as he was, going 18-15 in his starts). It earned him a new contract and like Looper, he started very well in 2009, posting a 1.97 ERA in his first five starts, going 3-0. However, he's lost his last two outings, allowing 16 hits and 13 ERs in just 10.1 innings (11.32 ERA). Lohse was due to start Friday’s opener against the Brewers before it was rained out. He has been dealing with back, knee and elbow soreness recently but he threw some pitches on Sunday without discomfort. Both starters are questionable and I realize the Brewers are playing better right now but I'm siding with Cards NOT get swept at home by this division rival.
Mike Rose
Tampa Bay Rays -140
Oakland's struggles with its pitching staff have caused plenty of shuffling in the rotation. Today, RHP Sean Gallagher will take the hill for his second start of the young season. His numbers have never been anything to write home about, but the most startling stat about the 23-year old is that opposing batters are hitting .360 against him this season. In his only other start this year, Gallagher allowed a whopping ten hits over five innings, allowing three runs in Oakland's 6-4 loss to Toronto on May 9th. Historically, he has been an awful pitcher away from home, as he is 0-7 with a 7.07 ERA and 1.85 WHIP for his career in 17 road appearances (11 starts). That doesn't bode well for a team that just got finished allowing 34 runs in three days in Detroit.
RHP Jeff Niemann still isn't getting much in the way of respect from the oddsmakers. He isn't going to be pitching deep into games, as he hasn't completed more than six innings of work once in his young career, but those innings that he is throwing are becoming more and more effective as the season wears on. He allowed two runs in five innings to get the W in his last outing at Camden Yards, which exorcized the demons of allowing five runs before recording an out in his first start of the season there. The biggest bugaboo on Niemann has been his K/BB ratio, which is less than 1.00. This will be the big right-hander's third start at home this season, but it will clearly be a much easier task than facing the White Sox and Red Sox.
History will tell you that Gallagher has been a total gas can, and that trend shouldn't buck tonight. Since the Rays came back from behind 7-0 to beat the Indians on Friday night, everything seems to be kicking just right. Expect to see Tampa Bay's winning streak stretch to four games tonight at the expense of the slumping A's.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Tampa Bay Rays -136
The A's have struggled on the road to the tune of 5-11 this season and I'll fade them on the road here as they send Gallagher to the hill, who is 0-9 against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons. The Rays should have the edge at the plate against Gallagher and they have been unbelievable at home in this price range, going 41-15 against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons. Lastly, we'll play against road teams - poor offensive team - scoring <=4.7 runs/game on the season (AL), after allowing 7 runs or more 3 straight games, as this system is 37-9 the last 5 seasons. Take the Rays.
John Ryan
Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Toronto as they face the XWS slated to start at 1:07 EST. CWS are in a series of poor roles for this game that reinforce and under score the grading by the AiS. CWS are just 8-22 (-13.5 Units) against the money line in road games versus a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better over the last 2 seasons; 3-15 (-11.1 Units) against the money line in road games versus good fielding teams turning 1.1 or more DP's/game over the last 2 seasons; 4-19 (-14.8 Units) against the money line in road games versus teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. Toronto is a stout 12-3 (+8.6 Units) against the money line versus an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season; 15-4 (+9.1 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. Take Toronto.
Wunderdog
Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays are crushing the ball and getting solid pitching. That has translated to the best record in the American League at 26-14. The Jays 5.8 runs per game sits atop all of MLB. Neither pitcher in this one is getting any rave reviews at this point, but when you look at the White Sox who have dropped three straight and sit at 7-13 on the road, it looks a lot like a year ago. The Sox, while winning the AL Central, were a dismal 35-46 on the road, so combine the numbers and just 42-59 in their last 101 on the road. It doesn't help when you’re allowing 5.5 runs per game on the road, especially facing baseball’s most productive offense. I'm going with the Jays here.
RatedPicks
Blue Jays RUN LINE -1.5 +130
The Blue Jays love playing in the sun. They have a 13-2 record during the day, they should also have a sell out crowd in the stands pumping them up, as first place Toronto celebrates a national holiday today. A much improved Blue Jays team throws Scott Richmand on the mound who faces off against Clayton Richard. The last time Richard faced the Blue Jays he lasted 4 innings as the Blue Jays pounded him for 5 runs injust 4 innings. Richard has also given up a 5.40 ERA and clubs hit a staggering .314 BAA against him. Couple this with the fact that he holds a lifetime record of 2-6, and the last time he faced the Blue Jays he was taken out in the 3rd inning while he got hammered for 4 runs, and had the bases loaded 2 of those 3 innings.
LA Angels -102
Lackey is the small underdog here, on the road vs the Mariners. The Mariners counter with Washburn, who has been getting pounded as of late against the Angels ball club. Going 1-4, and giving up 20 runs in the process. Lets take the small dog on the road in this one, as Lackey has yet to get a start since coming back. Look for Lackey to come in pumped after the ejection, and play this game a little stronger then normal. Reccommend taking on an extra 20% of your normal bet, as this is considered a smaller *BP*
Arizona D'Backs -130
Haren is a great pitcher vs Nolasco who is on a horrible tear. Haren for the D'Backs is posting a 2.09 ERA, but is 3-4 on the season. Due to the fact that his offense hasnt given him any runs. The D'Backs bats appear to have started to heat up as of late, and going against a shaky Marlins pitcher in Nolasco, They should take this easy win on the road.
Yankee Capper
Pittsburgh/Washington Over 10
Milwaukee/St. Louis Over 9
Arizona Diamondbacks -115
James Patrick
NY Mets at Los Angeles
Play: LA DODGERS
Back home after going 4-2 on a six-game East Coast road trip, I’ll take the home team tonight against a NY Mets squad that can put men on base but just can’t drive ‘em across the plate. Look for Wolf to outduel Redding as Joe Torre’s team continues its winning ways at home. Dodgers!
Jeff Benton
Colorado at ATLANTA
For Monday’s free play, we’ll take the Braves on the run line (-1½ runs) against Colorado.
Atlanta has its best pitcher, Derek Lowe, on the hill tonight, and he’s going on extra rest after Sunday’s scheduled start against Arizona was rained out. The last time Lowe was on the hill was a week ago tonight when he outdueled Johan Santana in New York, giving up just two runs on five hits in 6 2/3 innings of an 8-3 road victory. Atlanta has won four straight games with Lowe on the mound, all by multiple runs, and four of Lowe’s last five outings have been quality starts.
Lowe also had a lot of success against Colorado during his days with the Dodgers … as long as he wasn’t pitching at Coors Field. In fact, the last five times he’s faced the Rockies outside of Colorado, Lowe gave up 10 earned runs in 35 combined innings (2.57 ERA). On the flip side, check out Rockies starter Jason Marquis’ career numbers against the Braves, his former team: 1-3 with an 11.45 ERA in five starts – that’s 28 earned runs, including 10 home runs allowed, in just 22 innings of work!
On top of that, Marquis is coming off two really poor starts against the Giants and Rockies, yielding a combined 16 runs (14 earned) in 9 2/3 innings. Those two performances sent the right-hander’s season ERA soaring from 3.31 to 5.40. And behind Marquis is a Rockies bullpen that’s falling apart (the bully gave up 10 runs in the seventh inning of yesterday’s 11-4 loss at Pittsburgh and has a 6.00 ERA in the Rockies’ last 10 games).
Finally, Colorado comes into this contest having dropped seven of its last 10 games, while Atlanta has won seven of its last 10. Throw in the fact that the home team is 8-1 in the last nine meetings in this rivalry – with the Braves going 5-0 in the last five played in Atlanta – and I’ll confidently lay the 1½ runs with Lowe and the Braves.
3♦ ATLANTA -1½
Chris Jordan
Chicago at TORONTO
The team that got us closer to the goal is going to provide a decent matinee snack for us,as we gear up for my 10th winning day over the last 12. I loved the Jays with Halladay on the bump yesterday, I think they can make it four straight wins today.
When you're a team on the road, and you jump out to a 2-0 lead like the South Siders did yesterday, then get beat down and have to finish a series in a matinee contest on a Monday, you have no hope.
All the White Sox did this morning at the hotel was pack quickly and say let's get the f%$k out of here after this game.
The Jays have won three in a row, they're playing their best baseball in years and have the best record in the American League.
They're also looking to earn their 10th straight home victory against the White Sox, not to mention their 14th the last 16 meetings in the series.
Much smaller than yesterday, but we're going to lay the run line with the Jays here.
1♦ BLUE JAYS RUN LINE
Karl Garrett
Minnesota at NY YANKEES
For Monday, take the Yankees on the RUN LINE to complete the 4-game sweep of the Twins.
After 3 straight walk-off 1-run wins - the last pair via the long ball - you get the feeling that Minnesota has got to be demoralized, and will get romped tonight.
Minny is just 3-22 their last 25 games played in the Bronx, and starter Glen Perkins has been giving them up of late, as the southpaw has allowed 14 runs over his last 17 innings.
His counterpart Andy Pettitte is coming off a sparkling 6 innings of 1 run ball in a win over Toronto to improve to 3-1 this season.
The Yankees winning streak is at 5, and you just get the feeling that tonight is going to be the blowout after 3 straight close one.
Take the Yankees on the RUN LINE.
4♦ YANKEES RUN LINE
Drew Gordon
LA Angels at SEATTLE -110
I know what a lot of you are looking at John Lackey's superb numbers against the Mariners of late, winning 5 straight starts and posting a 1.21 ERA over that span, and immediately penciling him in as the winner, but not so fast! We saw with his last start - a weird 2-pitch effort against the Rangers - that Lackey is indeed rusty, and to expect the same pitcher tonight that produced that 1.21 ERA is a stretch at best... John Lackey still needs time, and that makes him vulnerable in this one.
Another reason he's vulnerable is the sputtering of this Angels offense, who've lost 3 straight and got shutout for the first time since August in Sunday's 3-0 loss. Rangers' Scott Feldman is a decent pitcher, but c'mon now, if they had trouble with him, they're going to have trouble with Washburn at Safeco, where he's been great thus far.
Speaking of Washburn, not only is he 2-0 with an excellent 2.25 ERA at home this season, but he's also got an axe to grind. You see, his worst start of the season came at Angel Stadium in late April, getting knocked around for 6 runs in 5 1/3 innings. However, we've already seen the difference when he pitches at Safeco against the Angels, rewind a couple weeks back from that ugly loss, and he shut down this Angels club for the win back on April 15th, allowing 2 runs over 6 innings! In other words, look for Washburn to get it done tonight.
Bottom line, give me the proven commodity at home over the returning ace with some questions, that's what it comes down to. When you factor in a sudden slump at the plate for the Angels, there's only one clear cut choice, and that's the Mariners at Safeco Monday night.
Take Seattle behind Washburn over the LA Angels and Lackey in this MLB match up.
2♦ SEATTLE